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1
Bd6r
2020 May 15, 9:38am
Bd6r
2020 May 15, 9:38am
And about herd immunity:
You don’t actually have to infect everybody, depending on how fast the virus grows. Some people say 80% [of the population needs to develop antibodies], some people say 60%. I personally think it’s less than 30%. And some people are saying we’re never going to get herd immunity. I don’t think so.
TSD: Why not?
ML: There have been maybe five or six situations where there was massive infection, including on the Diamond Princess cruise ship or provinces in Italy. You will find that the final death count is something like a tenth of a percent of the population. You could say that each of these places stopped because they had wonderful social distancing, or we can simply say they stopped because there was no one left to infect. We will know in a few weeks the answer to this question because of what happens in Sweden.
You don’t actually have to infect everybody, depending on how fast the virus grows. Some people say 80% [of the population needs to develop antibodies], some people say 60%. I personally think it’s less than 30%. And some people are saying we’re never going to get herd immunity. I don’t think so.
TSD: Why not?
ML: There have been maybe five or six situations where there was massive infection, including on the Diamond Princess cruise ship or provinces in Italy. You will find that the final death count is something like a tenth of a percent of the population. You could say that each of these places stopped because they had wonderful social distancing, or we can simply say they stopped because there was no one left to infect. We will know in a few weeks the answer to this question because of what happens in Sweden.
2
Ceffer
2020 May 15, 10:35am
Ceffer
2020 May 15, 10:35am
"Predicting" Covid is not particularly abstruse, because it follows the standard respiratory viral rise and fall curve which is well known, well trodden and easy to find. The so called "flattening the curve" measures simply prolong these outcomes if they do even that.
Everything else is the art of disinformation imposed on a largely superstitious, fearful, and easily inflamed public around disease matters. They have turned something simple, predictable and routine into the Wizard of Oz.
Everything else is the art of disinformation imposed on a largely superstitious, fearful, and easily inflamed public around disease matters. They have turned something simple, predictable and routine into the Wizard of Oz.
4
Bd6r
2020 May 15, 12:47pm
Bd6r
2020 May 15, 12:47pm
PeopleUnited says
a. no more honest journalists left, just journalwhores; b. contradicts the message of OBEY THE AUTHORITY!
Why don’t networks run this type of story?
a. no more honest journalists left, just journalwhores; b. contradicts the message of OBEY THE AUTHORITY!
5
SunnyvaleCA
2020 May 15, 12:51pm
Michael Levitt, not to be confused with Steven Levitt — economist of Freakonomics book frame.
6
EBGuy
2020 May 15, 1:34pm
I think he's a bit naive about the effects of social distancing (which is occurring even in places like Sweden, where transit system usage is down by 50 percent). That said, the East vs. West discussion is probably worth its own thread. It's not clear to me that total suppression (as practiced to in many Asian countries prepping for a SARS/MERS outbreak) is the proper response.
The guy who is interviewed is Chemistry Nobel Laureate Michael Levitt, who is probably more qualified than all WHO and CDC bureaucrats combined. I wonder why he is not interviewed 24/7, given his qualifications and success in predictions about corona. May be because of this:
Levitt gained notoriety for successfully predicting when the rate of increase in the number of deaths in China would slow down, and he has since then pivoted toward studying and graphing outbreaks in other countries and counties in the United States. Most recently, Levitt and his research team released classifications of 131 locations with over 50 deaths and 3000 cases, identifying where in the curve these areas are in terms of cases and deaths. While Levitt suggests that social distancing is not necessary to flatten the COVID-19 curve, many experts believe social distancing is critical to achieving this.
Note that retarded journalists added sentence about "other experts about social distancing" because you can not just tolerate opinion of an honest scientist.
Also, this makes me think that so-called "experts" from CDC and WHO are hacks who failed as scientists and thus became bureaucrats, because they were too stupid to make it in research.