patrick.net

I think many will be comfortable - especially those in their mid-fifties - working remote and so will buy now so they can get their choice of property before others do the same.

Some companies do have mileage restrictions as to how far away you can live from the office you are hired into. Others are okay with moving beyond that range but you don't get locality pay adjustments (bay area always had a high locality adj).

anecdotes on this point

I think the commercial real estate will be under pressure and converted to apt/condos in cities.

I would have thought the whole "yahoo" "back to HQ" directive would have been litigated if this was truly illegal (to force people back to the office).

WASHINGTON, D.C. (May 12, 2020) - The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties increased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.36 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the first quarter of 2020, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) National Delinquency Survey.

mell says

Commercial more so than residential housing will be fucked. The SF tyrants won't let most offices operate for a long long time, and general real estate open houses not until mid July. This is insane lol:

https://abc7news.com/san-francisco-sip-order-london-breed-texts-summer-camps-shelter-in-place-ends/6217318/

...SF just extended it to 'indefinitely' which somehow translates from Libtardese as "Aug 7"

Will be interesting to see if it continues to rise in April.

Most of it will be broken up and used as heating fuel to warm the survivors.

With the work from home (WFH) trend like with Twitter, what will happen to the tech workers.

Will they move out to less costly areas since they can work from home ? How would that affect residential real estate in the San Fran Bay Area ?

Also, what will be the impact on more WFH policies on the east coast as well to commercial real estate (ie.. office complexes, etc.) ?

WFH workers based on location and cost of living.

https://wolfstreet.com/2020/05/31/san-francisco-epitome-of-everything-bubble-faces-fiscal-chaos-boom-and-bust-always/

https://wolfstreet.com/2020/05/31/san-francisco-epitome-of-everything-bubble-faces-fiscal-chaos-boom-and-bust-always/

Wolf street is a little bit like zerohedge.

We have record low inventory and extremely low interest rates. Yet, there are people who have money and can afford to buy

Man, I wish prices would go down. I would love to jump in and buy another rental.

Anyone know what is going on in SF? Seems from media (over-exaggerating?) that SF is now filled with homeless tents "spaced" out across streets in tenderloin/civic area. Are people walking the streets now? Or have has the tech youth moved temporarily with this crises. Seems like SF is extending shelter in place order indefinitely?

Newbie123 says

Man, I wish prices would go down. I would love to jump in and buy another rental.

If you're thinking of buying a rental in the bay area, I'd love to see the financial numbers! In my area, even if I could buy a shack at 1/2 the current price and rent it out at full current market price it would be a very high risk and low return investment.

I can say that it's basically impossible to make money from the rents alone because they don't cover the mortgages, much less the property taxes etc.

the prop-13 tax bill from a 1980's assessment, on a mortgage free SFH doesn't come close to penciling out better as a rental compared to just selling.

The best rent/price ratios were in the worst neighborhoods, but then you have the problem of collecting rent from armed and hostile tenants...

Amid the depths of a global pandemic and financial downturn, the demand for real estate is unexpectedly rocketing in wealthy regions outside San Francisco, reports Bloomberg. Agents say that demand is soaring in affluent areas around the Bay Area such as Napa, Marin and further afield in Carmel, as people who have the means look to get away from the city. Meanwhile, the market in San Francisco and Alameda County is still well below where it was last year.

Elsewhere, Lake Tahoe has also seen a surge in real estate interest. The prospect of living out of the city on an alpine lake while maintaining a career is appealing for a new generation of young buyers, as many tech companies have signaled that remote work may be the new norm for a long time.

“I’ve never seen the demand higher for Marin County real estate than when COVID-19 hit,” Sotheby's Josh Burns told Bloomberg this week, as real estate agents see a surprising uptick in wealthy buyers leaving San Francisco.

Agent Katrina Kehl of Compass warned her sellers not to expect much interest in their recent Mill Valley listing, as the country moves through an economic crisis. To their surprise, the couple received 13 bids and the home went over the $1.7 million asking price by "a lot," Kehl told Bloomberg. Sotheby’s agent Ginger Martin added that “there’s a mad rush to get out of the city.”

Meanwhile, the rental market in San Francisco has dropped significantly, with rates for one-bedroom apartments in the city dropping by 9.2% since June 2019, and hitting a three-year low.

However, buying a new home in an isolated haven in a nearby bucolic county is not an option for lower-income San Francisco residents, and some believe the trend is only exacerbating the wealth divide.

“This is an example of another way the most advantaged, the most affluent have isolated themselves from this latest crisis,” Patrick Sharkey, a sociology professor at Princeton University who focuses on urban inequality, told Bloomberg. “It’s a very small segment of the population that has another home that they can go take off to.”

Whether this change in demand away from San Francisco and into the suburbs is a short-lived reaction to the pandemic, or a more permanent change, remains to be seen.