50 to 80% of populations were never susceptible to Covid
invite response
2020 Aug 6, 10:20am 2,141 views 14 comments
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1
tanked
2020 Aug 6, 10:51am
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/california take a look at hospital resource usage to see the upcoming California peak. But it won't be so bad, no worse than NYC or Lombardy. And now those places are doing great, the worst is behind them.
2
mell
2020 Aug 6, 10:56am
It was actually very likely that there is cross-immunity from other CV infections. It's the same for the flu, if you have ABs against type A or type B then you will be somewhat immune against the new type A or B strain. At least most of the time. The 100% scenario was pure fearmongering as soon as they knew the structure of the virus. The scenario of a novel virus that nobody is immune to is the absolute exception and maybe happens once every couple hundred years if at all.
3
tanked
2020 Aug 6, 11:14am
@mell mell says
I would call it worst-case-scenario planning versus fearmongering. The numbers were skyrocketing and there was no proof of any existing immunities in anyone yet. Early on I did see suggested numbers of 1 to 2% not susceptible but that still meant very close to 100%.
It was actually very likely that there is cross-immunity from other CV infections. It's the same for the flu, if you have ABs against type A or type B then you will be somewhat immune against the new type A or B strain. At least most of the time. The 100% scenario was pure fearmongering as soon as they knew the structure of the virus. The scenario of a novel virus that nobody is immune to is the absolute exception and maybe happens once every couple hundred years if at all.
I would call it worst-case-scenario planning versus fearmongering. The numbers were skyrocketing and there was no proof of any existing immunities in anyone yet. Early on I did see suggested numbers of 1 to 2% not susceptible but that still meant very close to 100%.
4
tanked
2020 Aug 6, 11:20am
APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostakovitch says
Not every state locked down. South Dakota never did. It was up to the Governors. This has nothing to do with Trump.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EdwVezmWAAARQ1N?format=png&name=medium
Yes, this is exactly what TRUMP ordered everyone to believe and everyone died because they failed to heed his timeless insights.
Not every state locked down. South Dakota never did. It was up to the Governors. This has nothing to do with Trump.
5
MisdemeanorRebel
2020 Aug 6, 11:57am
MisdemeanorRebel
2020 Aug 6, 11:57am
tanked says
iMHO, California was hit already last fall/early winter and herd immunity is there. Usually high deaths from the Flu in the elderly spiked in California at that time.
In California, the peak was never allowed to occur because it was locked down the entire time. However, once the peak is allowed to occur, it won't be so bad after all. Any hospital overwhelm will be brief.
iMHO, California was hit already last fall/early winter and herd immunity is there. Usually high deaths from the Flu in the elderly spiked in California at that time.
6
Ceffer
2020 Aug 6, 12:19pm
Ceffer
2020 Aug 6, 12:19pm
I see we have another gulag candidate here, if not summary firing squad. The dictates of the Great Socialist Paradise shall not be thwarted!
7
tanked
2020 Aug 6, 12:20pm
NoCoupForYou says
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/california according to this site it never happened but is about to. You can see the peaks in NY (over), TX (in the middle of it), AZ (recently over).
I don't know what would be more tragic, CA in lockdown after their peak (lockdown with no upside) or CA in lockdown before their peak (lockdown with no upside).
tanked saysIn California, the peak was never allowed to occur because it was locked down the entire time. However, once the peak is allowed to occur, it won't be so bad after all. Any hospital overwhelm will be brief.
iMHO, California was hit already last fall/early winter and herd immunity is there. Usually high deaths from the Flu in the elderly spiked in California at that time.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/california according to this site it never happened but is about to. You can see the peaks in NY (over), TX (in the middle of it), AZ (recently over).
I don't know what would be more tragic, CA in lockdown after their peak (lockdown with no upside) or CA in lockdown before their peak (lockdown with no upside).
8
tanked
2020 Aug 6, 12:25pm
Here's a fun fact. Under the old assumptions of near 100% susceptibility, If USA was locked down and only 1000 a day were allowed to get infected (so the hospitals could handle it), it would have taken 958 years for the whole USA to get infected. At which point the lockdown could be lifted.
10
Ceffer
2020 Aug 6, 4:07pm
Ceffer
2020 Aug 6, 4:07pm
tanked says
That's 240 Trump Election Cycles. Better safe than sorry.
it would have taken 958 years for the whole USA to get infected. At which point the lockdown could be lifted.
That's 240 Trump Election Cycles. Better safe than sorry.
11
WookieMan
2020 Aug 7, 7:07am
WookieMan
2020 Aug 7, 7:07am
Someone I personally know and trust to be honest about getting Covid tested positive yesterday. She's ~23 and has been super diligent about mask wearing and social distancing. Easy for her as an introvert. But yeah, she got it. Zero clue how and where. Here only symptom for the last 3-4 days was being tired. No aches. No cough. No trouble breathing.
Sure she's young, but this is what we're shutting the country down for. A virus that literally cannot be stopped by even the most stringent of rule followers and the outcome is being tired for a few days. You are a simple retard if you're pushing for anything other than opening back up. You should accidentally fall on a sharp object. And you can stick your mask up your ass in the process, as it's worthless apparently.
Sure she's young, but this is what we're shutting the country down for. A virus that literally cannot be stopped by even the most stringent of rule followers and the outcome is being tired for a few days. You are a simple retard if you're pushing for anything other than opening back up. You should accidentally fall on a sharp object. And you can stick your mask up your ass in the process, as it's worthless apparently.
12
mell
2020 Aug 7, 8:27am
WookieMan says
Besides plenty of false positives and negatives many with partial immunity may pick it up for a while before eliminating it. They likely don't shed much if at all and are confined to their quarters by a pointless and unreliable test.
Someone I personally know and trust to be honest about getting Covid tested positive yesterday. She's ~23 and has been super diligent about mask wearing and social distancing. Easy for her as an introvert. But yeah, she got it. Zero clue how and where. Here only symptom for the last 3-4 days was being tired. No aches. No cough. No trouble breathing.
Sure she's young, but this is what we're shutting the country down for. A virus that literally cannot be stopped by even the most stringent of rule followers and the outcome is being tired for a few days. You are a simple retard if you're pushing for anything other than opening back up. You should accidentally fall on a sharp object. And you can stick your mask up your ass in the process, as it's worthless apparently.
Besides plenty of false positives and negatives many with partial immunity may pick it up for a while before eliminating it. They likely don't shed much if at all and are confined to their quarters by a pointless and unreliable test.
13
socal2
2020 Aug 7, 8:41am
WookieMan says
A co-worker of mine tested positive last week. He was sent in for a test because he had a brief fever that lasted a few hours. He has been totally asymptomatic ever since - going on about 10 days from the initial fever.
He is in his mid 30's, Mexican and in good shape.
Someone I personally know and trust to be honest about getting Covid tested positive yesterday. She's ~23 and has been super diligent about mask wearing and social distancing. Easy for her as an introvert. But yeah, she got it. Zero clue how and where. Here only symptom for the last 3-4 days was being tired. No aches. No cough. No trouble breathing.
A co-worker of mine tested positive last week. He was sent in for a test because he had a brief fever that lasted a few hours. He has been totally asymptomatic ever since - going on about 10 days from the initial fever.
He is in his mid 30's, Mexican and in good shape.
14
tanked
2020 Aug 7, 9:10am
lockdowns are akin to hitting yourself over and over in the face with a 2X4 because you have a bloody nose, and you have to "do something"
Patrick suggested it is from existing cold immunities since the cold is a coronavirus (rhinoviruses are coronaviruses)
This is a major change from what was initially feared - that nearly 100% of populations were susceptible and were about to all get it at the same time since the virus is new. That would have overwhelmed hospitals and caused cops to not show up to work since they insist on available hospital space for any injuries they incur or cause in the line of duty.
Nobody really had a way of knowing this until it happened. Sweden took the "wait and see" approach on their hospitals and never saw them overwhelm. There were hospitals that did overwhelm in Lombardy, and NYC, but only briefly.
What this means is peaks are much smaller than initially feared. Hospitals might get overwhelmed but only very briefly. The dreaded "millions infected becomes billions infected quickly" does not occur.
Lockdowns can be helpful but almost every time it only delays the inevitable peak and causes economic and psychological devastation. The only time it's helpful is if it is done exactly when the hospitals are overwhelmed, and natural herd immunity happens to be imminent regardless. This occurred in Lombardy and NYC.
In Australia and Texas, the early lockdowns only delayed the peaks. Eventually you have to face the music.
In California, the peak was never allowed to occur because it was locked down the entire time. However, once the peak is allowed to occur, it won't be so bad after all. Any hospital overwhelm will be brief.
https://twitter.com/covid19crusher?lang=en