patrick.net

I've had problems in the past with being what I thought was truthful, but what I said was interpreted as insulting.

I had a friend who could be both self-destructive and stupid. When I would try to steer her away from the more idiotic behavior she'd take exception and tell me that a "supportive" friend wouldn't do that. Huh? I thought being a friend meant you try to help your friends, not stand by and let them self-destruct. But her idea of friendship was that I cheer her on no matter what. Oddly, this can relate to RE, I mean how many stories have we read here about people trying to talk friends/relatives out of stupid home purchases?

I do believe that the unvarnished truth is the best thing under most circumstances. But I've learned the hard way that most people don't seem to see it that way. No matter how abrasive I think you can be at times, I will always respect that you tell the truth as you see it. (Now am I being insulting by calling you abrasive? ;) )

SactoQt, I don't mind about EscapedFromDC comment, although I doubt his ability to articulate. Well-adjusted individuals can state their own ideas to the clearest intention with potentially offending anyone, or befuddling their own messages so that they will have to broadcast a few extra more to clarify their own ideas. I'll just turn out the noise and look for objective answers, which are what I'm looking for from my hypothetical question regarding a coming recession.

I believe in the housing bubble burst just as much as any of you. But as I'm reminded of the old saying "beware of what you wish for", I'm concerned if economy conditions could turn out to be much worse that most of us could be out of job and would not even be able to buy the deeply discounted homes we ever want. Any objective take on this one?

In closing, it is said the patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrels. Similarly, we can say honesty is the last excuse of the uncultivated.

SacQT wrote . . . "I do believe that the unvarnished truth is the best thing under most circumstances."

Now if we can get that "most" to "all", then again, I'll come out and we can get married.

SacQT, I am abrasive, so, by my definition, your honesty will not cause you to be insulting.

Yeah, I pretty much don't have any friends, by choice and by consequence, because I can't play the game anymore.

Like the one guy who adopted a baby and the baby was in day care 6.5 days a week 3 days after they got it.

I lost him when I noted that they meant to get a dog but accidentally got a person.

So many . . .

"Similarly, we can say honesty is the last excuse of the uncultivated."

Actually, it's my only excuse.

I lost him when I noted that they meant to get a dog but accidentally got a person.

Maybe there is hope they listened to the message intended.. Nahhh.

I believe in the housing bubble burst just as much as any of you. But as I’m reminded of the old saying “beware of what you wish for”, I’m concerned if economy conditions could turn out to be much worse that most of us could be out of job and would not even be able to buy the deeply discounted homes we ever want. Any objective take on this one?

I'm in the "hope for the best, prepare for the worst" group. There is that bit of schadenfreude in me that wishes all the people who have created this bubble suffer for their foolishness, but the overall effect on the economy would be too devastating if that were to really happen. I am not one who hopes for the second coming of the depression just so the greedy learn their lesson. We'd all suffer in that scenario.

Scott C -

I didn't ask you do the research for me. I pointed out a hole in your statement, and I offered you a way to patch the hole.

I do understand the law, by the way. I understand it extremely well. In fact, I'd bet you a huge sum of money that I understand "the law" better than almost anybody you have ever met in your whole friggin life.

How about them apples?

Allah -
Your last post has about 4 major errors in it.

Yes?

On another subject, how about the situation where high property taxes on possibly overvalued homes may help to drag down RE prices? Are taxes accounted for when the housing affordability is calculated? Certainly, this is another indicator that home prices are simply out of control.

Here are a few stats for tax liens for various CA counties:

San Mateo: 17,363
Santa Clara: 9,124
LA: 41,653
Sacto: 10,868
San Diego: 15,508
San Bernadino: 51,039
Sonoma: 2,660
SF: 2,950
Source: foreclosure.com

OK

OK ScottC,

Given that you didn't want to spend the 5 minutes on the data, I went the Texas site (big site) and did the research for you.

1. There was 1 license revoked for cause in July, August, and September. There were a bunch of probations with minor fees. For the math-challenged, that's an average of about 4 license revocations per year.

So ScottC, you see, the whole "we could lose our license" thing is a gigantic wad of crap.

To lose your license you pretty much have to steal.

Yeah, if you think about the whole "perfect storm" thing, the timing of the bankruptcy laws and credit card minimum laws, as well as any change to the mortgage deduction, are going to look like straws on the camel.

"and the REMAX place on the Plaza is for sale. LOL."

When the whole thing blows, the Remax people just get in the air ballon and leave OZ.

I don't know if you're wrong because although your post tries very very hard to make a coherent point, in the end, it fails.

THis just in . . .

"Refco Inc., reeling from the disclosure that its chief executive officer hid unpaid debts, blocked clients from withdrawing funds and said one of its units doesn't have enough liquidity to keep doing business. Refco is the biggest independent U.S. futures broker."

This is really really bad news. Bad bad omens, my friends.

Al - What you are saying has too many conditionals to be valuable.

Yes, you are correct, buy low, with no bidding competition, when interest rates are low.

Sure, we agree on that.

When the whole thing blows, the Remax people just get in the air ballon and leave OZ.

Unless the flying monkeys get to them first.

Ah yes, I fogot about the appraisers and mortgage brokers.

“Refco Inc., reeling from the disclosure that its chief executive officer hid unpaid debts, blocked clients from withdrawing funds and said one of its units doesn’t have enough liquidity to keep doing business. Refco is the biggest independent U.S. futures broker."

I used to have an account at Refco and I have to said that they are pretty good. I called in the morning to withdraw funds and the money is wired to my bank in the afternoon.

This is really a sad development.

Bush’s tax panel is close to recommending caps on deductions for home mortgages and employer provided health insurance.

I suspect that the caps on deductions will be implemented. Not that it is a popular measure... but it will be packaged and compromised into law.

The top end does not depend on deduction. The bottom end will not be affected or they will benefit in cause deduction is changed into tax credit. The Blue coasts will be toast.

Effects of deduction caps:

1. More psychological impact on the part of potential buyers
2. More financial pressure on marginal homedebtors
3. More incentive to use bigger downpayments
4. More incentive to use short-term mortgages (e.g. 5YR and 15YR)
5. Price decompression around 1M
6. Price compression arounf 300K

As a Realtor, an issue that always bugs me is kind of statistics that are published by the media. Usually when someone reports "house prices rose 17%", a more likely correct statement would be something like, 'the median price of homes sold this month is 17% higher'. This can mean that higher priced homes are selling rather than lower priced homes. It doesn't mean that individual homes are worth more, although there will probably be some correlation.

That being said, home prices in Half Moon Bay really have risen pretty astronomically and I see something going on in the market.

A quick search gave me some #'s. At the end of January 2005, Inventory for all San Mateo County was 530 homes listed and 294 sold in that month. At the end of September 2005, inventory was 1229 homes (+231%) and 507 were sold. On the Coast side, inventory has grown significantly in every month except January. In September, there were 45 sales and 69 homes listed in coastside communities from Pacifica to Pescadero.

I haven't applied any math, but I sense that our market peaked before April 15th, but a lot of sellers don't understand that and continued inflating their asking prices. For sellers who really want or need to sell, we're seeing significant price reductions, but the prices for comparable homes seem to be pretty much equal to what was happening in March and April.

A number I came up with some months ago was the disparity between what entry-level buyers pay per square foot and what luxury buyers pay. Essentially, a older 800SF shack on the coastside is worth about $650 /SF - Golf-course ocean view new homes are selling for about $375/SF.

I think we're pretty much seeing the limits of what people are willing to pay for marginal homes and I think folks in the million plus range are actually getting pretty good value.

I think we’re pretty much seeing the limits of what people are willing to pay for marginal homes and I think folks in the million plus range are actually getting pretty good value.

Quite true though.

What does anyonw know about foreclosure.com? Are listings accurate? Has anyone joined this website?

Thanks for all the awesome discussion. I feel so much better being a renter. Loved Patricks' comment that home owners are subsidizing my housing costs.

Dear SantaCruzan - you might want to post your question on the most recent thread. This thread hasn't been posted to in a week.

I checked out a few listings at foreclosure dot com when I was looking to buy. The properties were out of date. Also, when I contacted several of the contact people given on the website for a particular house, the people had no idea what I was talking about.

I think it's a good time to be a renter. Give it another year or two and, in my opinion, you'll know why the smart money isn't buying housing right now.

Thanks Escaped from DC. I will check the other thread. This is so fascinating to read. A friend keeps insisting the weather is good in the BA so of course people will buy. Seems too simple.