patrick.net

Surfer,

Stanford grads in BA are a dime a dozen, every other resume I see is from Stanford. Among my circle of friends, ALL of them have one sort of advanced degree or another, MBA, PhD, Msc, JD, etc. And there are lots of international talents from different countries coming here with their own patents. The fact of the matter is, places like NYC and BA really have a lot of world-class brains, and places with these brains tend to have extremely high cost of living.

I am not saying the current housing price is sane, it definitely needs to come down in real terms, but BA will always be hard to afford, it is just like London, Paris, NYC, etc. will always be out of reach for most population, especially with a more fluid international labor market so that you start to see competition from the best minds from India or China competing for the same shack down the street.

Back in 95/96, when BA was just coming out of the realty recession, the foothill areas of the South Bay was already going for around 650-800K, which of course more than doubled today. But it just won't go back to that price level, because we went through two bubbles in which some people DID keep the money they make from these bubbles.

Stanford grads in BA are a dime a dozen, every other resume I see is from Stanford.

There are at least two on this blog. Probably more.

But it just won’t go back to that price level, because we went through two bubbles in which some people DID keep the money they make from these bubbles.

Not necessarily. Bubbles are psychology-driven.

The world is always swining between two extremes. This wave of globalization will be replaced by closed-door policies and regionalism for a while, and then we will swing back to globalization. AG is not the only person who overshoots, we all do.

This wave of globalization is creating too many negative effects at home. There is simply no way we can outsource poor people overseas, so we need to keep some jobs for the underprivileged before they set the cities on fire. That will either manifest itself in politics (some kind of protectionism lunatic will emerge in sweeping popularity), in economics (most US consumers have no $$ to spend), or the combination of both.

So I think the opportunity for the next decade or so is on regionalism, focusing on serving local communities. Produce locally, consume locally, fuck the international cheap labor lol :-)

The world is always swining between two extremes. This wave of globalization will be replaced by closed-door policies and regionalism for a while, and then we will swing back to globalization. AG is not the only person who overshoots, we all do.

I agree. But things do not swing the other way without catastrophes. Sadly, we may have to witness cities on fire, fascist leaders, and possibly wars before the tide changes again.

SactoQt,

I admit to owning a SUV also. I'm not proud of it, and when I bought it almost 10 years ago, I had a lot more reason to justify it on practical grounds. We don't like it so much anymore, and gas prices are the final straw. But, with 2 dogs, a kid, and an extremely active life style we'll still need to replace it with something "big" and utility friendly (racks for stuff), and I hate minivans (which aren't very fuel efficient either). I've been holding out waiting for some reasonable SUV hybrids, or perhaps a wagon I actually like. All that said, I'm kind of getting sick of pulling anti-suv bumper stickers off my truck every time I have to park in Berkeley, lol.

Our other car is an older BMW, which we fight over driving rights daily. No one wants to drive the SUV.

I’ve been holding out waiting for some reasonable SUV hybrids, or perhaps a wagon I actually like. All that said, I’m kind of getting sick of pulling anti-suv bumper stickers off my truck every time I have to park in Berkeley, lol.

SUV hybrid is a joke. You will end up with a "high-performance" truck with ok gas mileage.

How about Volvo V70?

Sadly, we may have to witness cities on fire, fascist leaders, and possibly wars before the tide changes again.

The good news is that the US fares better than just about anywhere during times of heavy protectionism, because we already consume such a large portion of our domestic output. The bad news is that the rest of the world does not, and previous cycles of isolationism tend to have fairly ugly punctuation marks at the end of them. I forget who it was that said (in response to criticism over growing European exports in the 60s, mostly German Wirtschaftswunder related), that either Europe exports goods, or it exports war; the choice is up to us.

How about Volvo V70?

(I might date myself here). As a former owner of a 1976 Ford Granada, and thereafter a 1984 Ford Tempo, I have hereby sworn to never, willingly own or otherwise encourage the ownership of another Ford.

The good news is that the US fares better than just about anywhere during times of heavy protectionism, because we already consume such a large portion of our domestic output.

But we are so used to cheap, crappy imports nowadays...

But we are so used to cheap, crappy imports nowadays…

That's an easier adjustment for us than the converse. Imagine how Germany or Japan would do if they lost wide, open access to our consumer markets (and the collateral damage they'd suffer when everywhere else follows suit).

As a former owner of a 1976 Ford Granada, and thereafter a 1984 Ford Tempo, I have hereby sworn to never, willingly own or otherwise encourage the ownership of another Ford.

Understandable. How about Sabb 9-5 Sport Wagon? You have nothing about GM, right?

Do not buy a Saab. Lease one. Or face the consequences after three years.

(Not car-buying advice)

That’s an easier adjustment for us than the converse.

I am not too sure about that... The business model of Walmart will break apart.

I am not too sure about that… The business model of Walmart will break apart.

During times of protectionism, there is still open international trade, just bi-lateral in nature. I dare say that China will be very willing to enter into such agreements with the US very readily. Their alternatives aren't so attractive. The heavy hammer would fall on Europe and Japan (although Europe would also bi-laterally trade with China too, just less so than us). My only point is that the US wins at this type of international brinksmanship, and the other producing nations know it. Even with the Walmart model firmly in place, we are still nearly an 80% local economy. How about Germany, the UK, Japan?

How about Sabb 9-5 Sport Wagon? You have nothing about GM, right?

I'm mainly about BMW and Audi right now; I just need to find some overpaying greater fool to fund my indulgance.

WOW we really got far off topic…..Here is an interesting article at least related to the bubble.

What was the topic again?

There is no thread bubble!

Warren Buffet? All you can eat? ;)

I think Europe is more shielded than Japan. Isn't EU or Euro set up for a freer flow of goods and labor to create a big and sustainable internal demand from within?

Japan is in a worse situation than Germany, but its internal consumer market seems to be recovering. I will have a chance to take go to Japan soon so that I can observe from within. The most f*cked country here is China, and deservingly so. You just can't place the burden of growth of a 1.3B people country on someone else. I am all for closing the door to China, I would rather pay slightly more for goods to be manufactured in Mexico, after all, it is right at our backyard, and their wellbeing is more critical to us than China.

I think Europe is more shielded than Japan. Isn't EU or Euro set up for a freer flow of goods and labor to create a big and sustainable internal demand from within?

Japan is in a worse situation than Germany, but its internal consumer market seems to be recovering. I will have a chance to take go to Japan soon so that I can observe from within. The most f*cked country here is China, and deservingly so. You just can't place the burden of growth of a 1.3B-people country entirely on someone else. I am all for closing the door to China, I would rather pay slightly more for goods to be manufactured in Mexico, after all, it is right at our backyard, and their wellbeing is more critical to us than China.

Just don't buy one of those BMW "sport activity vehicles." I think those things have less trunk space than a sedan. Or maybe not much more.

I love the looks of the Audi A4s of various years… do they run trouble free? Or are they exotic and in need of attention often?

I'm pretty impressed with my Audi sofar; it looks great and the road feel is fantastic. I have an '02 A4, and sofar it's been trouble free (w/ a tuned engine too). I think the worst part will be the scheduled maintenance for bigger items such as the timing belt.

I think BMW's are the best. My dad was in a head on crash in one, and it saved his life. I honestly can't afford one right now, and we got a really good deal on the SUV we have. I'll keep it as long as it has a warranty, and by then I hope to be able to buy something like a BMW. I'm also hoping that I can get something smaller when I have to haul less stuff, but with kids who knows when that will be possible.

Mini-vans are a horror thoough. I loved the cargo space, but I never felt safe because the handling was so bad. SUV's do have a high center of gravity but they handle better. My father-in-law was in an accident in his Ford Explorer when a Saturn pulled out in front of him. He barely felt the impact and his car suffered minor damage. The whole front of the Saturn was demolished. So there is something to be said for size. I do feel more secure in my car versus my husband's little Hyundai, though his has side air bags and would probably do fine in an accident.

I appreciate not getting thrashed for admitting to an SUV, so thanks! I do get the negative press the SUV gets, and I have seen tons of people around me buy the Escalades and Hummer's just for status reasons, which is pretty obnoxious. I drive a Ford, so not a lot of status there, and I've been lucky not to have too many problems with it. I also have the one with the smaller engine so gas prices are not as much of a problem. It costs me around $45-50 to fill and I can usually go 1 1/2 to 2 weeks on that. My mini-van wasn't much more economical, and a lot less convenient since it only had 3 doors -- another thing I hated. Anyway, I know I've rambled on but you know what they say... confession is good for the soul. ;)

Just don’t buy one of those BMW “sport activity vehicles.” I think those things have less trunk space than a sedan. Or maybe not much more.

Our friends had an X5 and they don't have a lot of cargo space if you carry passengers, kind of like the Toyota Rav 4. Maybe room for a few grocery bags and that's it.

"BTW, I think 528 is under 4000 pounds. "

Oops, LOL, you're right, I looked it up and it's only around 34-3500 lbs. Don't know what I was thinking...probably recalled comparing it to our previous small car, which was way lighter.

"I love the looks of the Audi A4s of various years…"

I think Audis have been out-performing BMW in Car and Driver in recent years...Can't remember which models. I try to keep my husband away from Car and Driver because it always makes him want a new car. ;-)

"Maybe room for a few grocery bags and that’s it. "

Yep. Like a car with a higher center of gravity and big tires. To create more cargo space in our sedan, we just bought a Thule rack and a cargo carrier. Works great for trips, and we're able to fit enough luggage and a stroller and a bunch of other junk in the car for long trips.

To create more cargo space in our sedan, we just bought a Thule rack and a cargo carrier.

Do the Thule's carry much stuff? They look kind of small. It's a good idea though. I mostly wanted to be able to take my kids friend's with us too, since I'm the neurotic mom who likes to be able to watch my kids as much as possible.

"Do the Thule’s carry much stuff? They look kind of small. It’s a good idea though."

We bought one that's the width and length of the roof of the car, and it can hold one large suitcase plus a bunch of stuff crammed in around it. We could probably fit all our luggage up there if we packed in duffle bags. In fact, that was our biggest space saver--buying duffle bags to replace some of our traditional luggage so that would could cram stuff in better. :-)

"I mostly wanted to be able to take my kids friend’s with us too, since I’m the neurotic mom who likes to be able to watch my kids as much as possible."

I know the people-space issue will be our big hang-up in a few years. Right now my kids aren't old enough to need to go anywhere with friends, and we live in a town so small I can walk most everywhere and don't have to drive. So, I guess I'll be able to haul two extra friends, but no more. :-/ Who knows if my 16-yr plan will really work out. It's just what I tell myself so I don't have to think of giving up my car.

Who knows if my 16-yr plan will really work out. It’s just what I tell myself so I don’t have to think of giving up my car.

I wouldn't want to give it up either. BMW's are great cars. I used to work for my dad and I got to drive lots of different cars, and there really is something to be said about German engineering. Once I drove a Porsche it was all over. I have never driven an American sports car that even comes close. But unfortunately I won't be able to drive a sports car until the kids are much older. Sigh........

"But unfortunately I won’t be able to drive a sports car until the kids are much older. Sigh…….. "

LOL. Don't the kids fold up easily?

A few years ago I witnessed my husband trying to cram a baby seat into the back of a Porsche. ("Look honey, it fits!...Sort of!")

A few years ago I witnessed my husband trying to cram a baby seat into the back of a Porsche. (”Look honey, it fits!…Sort of!”)

Lol

Who needs practical when you can have a Porsche?

I have never driven an American sports car that even comes close. But unfortunately I won’t be able to drive a sports car until the kids are much older. Sigh……..

I will be laughed at if I drive a sports car on the freeway at exactly 65 mph...

I will be laughed at if I drive a sports car on the freeway at exactly 65 mph…

Nah, most people who can afford something like a Porsche are smart enough not to wreck them. My dad actually let me borrow a Porsche once when my car broke down, it drove like a dream even at the speed limit. I don't feel the need to drive like a speed demon, I just enjoy a car that handles nicely.

Randy H wrote "As a former owner of a 1976 Ford Granada, and thereafter a 1984 Ford Tempo, I have hereby sworn to never, willingly own or otherwise encourage the ownership of another Ford."

I owned a ford escort and a ford taurus. I later took the same oath.

Gotta scooter for around town errands.

Scooter? Is it safe?

Neighbor’s got a RR (used, very reasonable price), a Lamborghini SUV, two Range Rovers, and 2 classic American cars.

I think RR's are really cool because they weigh as much as a large SUV but they are as fast as sport sedens.

Range Rovers? I thought they are in the shop more often than on the road. Perhaps this is why they need two? ;)

I love his RR. We take it when we “double date”. Incredible machine.

I like the look of Silver Spur. What model is his?

In Marin, there is a one-hour “window of opportunity” at about 10:40AM each day when you might actually be able to DRIVE the car as it is meant to be driven. The rest of the time, you just hope it looks cool in jams…

LOL...yeah--so much for getting that extra 40hp and using it! I'm mostly puttering in the traffic on SFD, but there's days when I drive out to Pt. Reyes and open it up. ;)

I think RR’s are really cool because they weigh as much as a large SUV but they are as fast as sport sedens.

Perhaps the new BMW-owned versions, but the oldies were serious dogs if I remember correctly, 0-60s in the 11sec range?

Scooter? Is it safe?

I have a scooter too, a Aprillia Scarabeo. It is only as safe as I can be defensive, but it is hella cool to ride and will run for about a month on $5 of gas. I bought it when I lived on the Peninsula and used it to commute up and down El Camino Real. I don't drive it on the freeways, even tho it's freeway legal. Big wide roads with lots of room to swerve out of the way of clueless seniors, distracted moms (and dads) in SUVs, and teenagers are reasonably safe. Driving on side-streets scares the hell out of me. You have to assume that every single person in the world is trying to kill you; other than that, it's safe and fun.

(I still drive it alot, just harder to find safe routes in Marin)

but not quite as much as I enjoyed the Yammy TMax in Nice.

You didn't find driving in Nice terrifying? I go to Mougins every year, just NE of Nice. You couldn't pay me to scoot there; too many drunk frenchman on the roads.

"LOL…yeah–so much for getting that extra 40hp and using it!"

I believe in the Bay Area, extra horsepower and superior handling can be justified as necessary for maneuvering out of the way of bad drivers. :-)