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I think we've reached peak everything and things are going down now....
invite response
2021 Aug 7, 6:45pm 1,686 views 13 comments
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1
Onvacation
2021 Aug 7, 7:31pm
Onvacation
2021 Aug 7, 7:31pm
It's already ugly.
I just got a BBQ sandwich from the local place I have not been to for 6 months and the price went up 30%.
I just got a BBQ sandwich from the local place I have not been to for 6 months and the price went up 30%.
2
clambo
2021 Aug 7, 7:36pm
The ban on eviction is ending in most states.
Some landlords who were once content will be evicting deadbeats and selling their places.
So, there will be a bit more supply.
Others are guys who will be foreclosed and those places will be sold, adding a bit more supply.
I think it’s going to be ugly for those accustomed to not paying rent or a mortgage.
We are not at a peak in the stock market, it’s got a little more to go this year (5%?)
The reason for the real estate boom in my location is a combination of 1. Coronavirus 2. Black crime and police fear 3. Taxes 4. Politicians saying white is bad, straight is bad, etc. 5. Prices lower than northeast
I ran into a real estate guy in Juno Beach the other day, and he said high income guys are departing California in addition to the obvious New York, New Jersey, Connecticut people coming down here.
Some landlords who were once content will be evicting deadbeats and selling their places.
So, there will be a bit more supply.
Others are guys who will be foreclosed and those places will be sold, adding a bit more supply.
I think it’s going to be ugly for those accustomed to not paying rent or a mortgage.
We are not at a peak in the stock market, it’s got a little more to go this year (5%?)
The reason for the real estate boom in my location is a combination of 1. Coronavirus 2. Black crime and police fear 3. Taxes 4. Politicians saying white is bad, straight is bad, etc. 5. Prices lower than northeast
I ran into a real estate guy in Juno Beach the other day, and he said high income guys are departing California in addition to the obvious New York, New Jersey, Connecticut people coming down here.
3
Bitcoin
2021 Aug 10, 2:28pm
Bitcoin
2021 Aug 10, 2:28pm
joshuatrio says
sorry, but there is always someone who says housing is going to tank. Can it go on forever like this? Nope....can it go further up. yep.
Try buying a house in Nashville .... as long as you are fine with paying 100k over asking price you will find one.
Friend of mine tried buying a house with some land in SoCal. He offered 100k over asking and someone else came in all cash and paid 1.5M (300k over asking)....this is a rural area with some land. Its still insane out there.
I would love, love, love for prices to come down....I cant wait to buy more rentals.
My friend who owns over 200 rentals said to wait and that it's gonna tank in the next 4-6 months.
sorry, but there is always someone who says housing is going to tank. Can it go on forever like this? Nope....can it go further up. yep.
Try buying a house in Nashville .... as long as you are fine with paying 100k over asking price you will find one.
Friend of mine tried buying a house with some land in SoCal. He offered 100k over asking and someone else came in all cash and paid 1.5M (300k over asking)....this is a rural area with some land. Its still insane out there.
I would love, love, love for prices to come down....I cant wait to buy more rentals.
4
mich
2021 Aug 10, 2:39pm
joshuatrio says
I think we've reached peak everything folks. Call it a hunch. Hers what I've personally seen and experienced.check out the 18 credit cycle for real estate really interesting stuff! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U5sBw5Wk-Hc&lc=Ugx1Lah2lRae_7kZEEF4AaABAg.9OjG9yPrMzG9PSx_8CBpFn Phillip J. Anderson wrote a book on it - it's a tough read but super eye opening!
1. For starters: Housing inventory in one month (June-July) has increased 20-30%. In many parts of the country... it's the biggest month over month increase in a century.
This info from www.housingbubble.blog.
2. Ammo is becoming available again. The price gouging is slowing as supply comes online.
3. I sold my boat two weeks ago because I wouldn't be able to use it for a year and I thought the marine market went stupid during covid. I bought it for $20k. Sold it for $31k in 5 days.
At the time I was the only boat in my area for sale. There are now 30-40 boats available, and they are just sitting.... Yes I know it's the end of the season, but still. This is in less than 2 weeks. Atlanta metro still has 2-3 more months of solid boating left.
4. We were looking a...
5
HeadSet
2021 Aug 10, 4:17pm
HeadSet
2021 Aug 10, 4:17pm
joshuatrio says
Does that mean cash in the bank will become more valuable as asset prices fall?
I think we've reached peak everything folks.
Does that mean cash in the bank will become more valuable as asset prices fall?
6
fdhfoiehfeoi
2021 Aug 10, 5:25pm
fdhfoiehfeoi
2021 Aug 10, 5:25pm
I read something the other night about the long term plans the reviled have for housing. Blackrock is buying property EN MASSE. Eviction moratorium's are making rental income extremely risky, and may ruin more than a few rental owners. Building is slowing down because of moratorium, raw material cost and supply issues, combined with inflation, pushing prices, and property taxes ever higher.
Plan to to price everyone out of land ownership, and force us all into government housing.
Plan to to price everyone out of land ownership, and force us all into government housing.
7
joshuatrio
2021 Aug 10, 5:45pm
joshuatrio
2021 Aug 10, 5:45pm
HeadSet says
That's what I think will happen and so do a few of my RE investor friends.
NuttBoxer says
My brother in law who is a realtor said to place little to no weight on the investment groups right now. He said it's way overhyped in the media and he hasn't seen it at all.
Lumber prices are crashing after being pumped and I think a lot of the commodity spike was speculation, but labor shortages due to govt handouts will perpetuate this cycle until people go back to work.
I'm no expert or economist. Just my theory.
joshuatrio saysI think we've reached peak everything folks.
Does that mean cash in the bank will become more valuable as asset prices fall?
That's what I think will happen and so do a few of my RE investor friends.
NuttBoxer says
I read something the other night about the long term plans the reviled have for housing. Blackrock is buying property EN MASSE. Eviction moratorium's are making rental income extremely risky, and may ruin more than a few rental owners. Building is slowing down because of moratorium, raw material cost and supply issues, combined with inflation, pushing prices, and property taxes ever higher.
Plan to to price everyone out of land ownership, and force us all into government housing.
My brother in law who is a realtor said to place little to no weight on the investment groups right now. He said it's way overhyped in the media and he hasn't seen it at all.
Lumber prices are crashing after being pumped and I think a lot of the commodity spike was speculation, but labor shortages due to govt handouts will perpetuate this cycle until people go back to work.
I'm no expert or economist. Just my theory.
8
Blue
2021 Aug 10, 5:50pm
If Biden's 'digital dollars', 'cyber cash' etc. fancy money press doesn't stop creating $trillions out of thin air, all bets are off. Inflation continues and rob savers at much faster rate. Republicans may be a little better but all governments are corrupt no one can fight against them.
9
Booger
2021 Aug 10, 5:50pm
Booger
2021 Aug 10, 5:50pm
NuttBoxer says
Zillow and Open door are much worse.
Just make sure if you rent or sell, it's not to one of these entities.
Blackrock is buying property EN MASSE
Zillow and Open door are much worse.
Just make sure if you rent or sell, it's not to one of these entities.
10
Booger
2021 Aug 10, 5:56pm
Booger
2021 Aug 10, 5:56pm
joshuatrio says
True, but supply is still really low and will be for quite some time. At least through the end of this year and into next summer. The same will be true for vehicles.
1. For starters: Housing inventory in one month (June-July) has increased 20-30%. In many parts of the country... it's the biggest month over month increase in a century.
True, but supply is still really low and will be for quite some time. At least through the end of this year and into next summer. The same will be true for vehicles.
11
AmericanKulak
2021 Aug 10, 6:13pm
AmericanKulak
2021 Aug 10, 6:13pm
NuttBoxer says
Gov't housing administered by Corporations, of course. And if you're a known Patriot, Blackrock will simply de-housing platform you.
Redlining II.
Plan to to price everyone out of land ownership, and force us all into government housing.
Gov't housing administered by Corporations, of course. And if you're a known Patriot, Blackrock will simply de-housing platform you.
Redlining II.
12
Booger
2021 Aug 10, 6:16pm
Booger
2021 Aug 10, 6:16pm
https://archive.md/aibnd
Home Builders Are Restricting Sales, Pushing Up New Home Prices
Many cannot increase construction quickly enough to meet booming demand and are turning away business
Home Builders Are Restricting Sales, Pushing Up New Home Prices
Many cannot increase construction quickly enough to meet booming demand and are turning away business
13
Bitcoin
2021 Aug 10, 9:07pm
Bitcoin
2021 Aug 10, 9:07pm
joshuatrio says
oil, piping, steel....there are plenty of categories that are being pushed up in price due to shortages and broken supply chains.
Lumber prices are crashing after being pumped and I think a lot of the commodity spike was speculation, but labor shortages due to govt handouts will perpetuate this cycle until people go back to work.
oil, piping, steel....there are plenty of categories that are being pushed up in price due to shortages and broken supply chains.
1. For starters: Housing inventory in one month (June-July) has increased 20-30%. In many parts of the country... it's the biggest month over month increase in a century.
This info from www.housingbubble.blog.
2. Ammo is becoming available again. The price gouging is slowing as supply comes online.
3. I sold my boat two weeks ago because I wouldn't be able to use it for a year and I thought the marine market went stupid during covid. I bought it for $20k. Sold it for $31k in 5 days.
At the time I was the only boat in my area for sale. There are now 30-40 boats available, and they are just sitting.... Yes I know it's the end of the season, but still. This is in less than 2 weeks. Atlanta metro still has 2-3 more months of solid boating left.
4. We were looking at buying a few rentals, we called it quits when realtors started pushing the idea that prices were only going up due to supply and Biden printing cash. While I believe the printing will cause short and long term inflation, I think things went stupid because of covid and short supply.
Unsustainable with income levels being where they are.
5. My friend who owns over 200 rentals said to wait and that it's gonna tank in the next 4-6 months. He indicated that numerous foreclosures will hit - semi dependant on how long they run the foreclosure moratoriums. He has been in the game for a long time and I trust him.
6. Starting to see a lot of extra housing listings in my area.
All anecdotal, but I think things are gonna get ugly soon.