patrick.net

EBGuy says

Stuff to keep in mind, Zillow is already more than 50% below their February high. Zillow has $4.5 billion in cash, which is quite a war chest.

Good stuff to keep in mind.
So if they lose $78,000 per house, then their whole war chest is used up after 57,700 homes. Sounds like a lot of homes but that averages to just over 1,000 per state. The other thing to keep in mind is that $78,000 was the average when the articles I quoted were written. The prices had only been going up until that point. Wait until they start taking $250,000 baths on these really high end homes, which I think is where they were really investing heavily as those had the most upside.

EBGuy says

Stuff to keep in mind, Zillow is already more than 50% below their February high.

That alone would make me want to look elsewhere for shorting / buying puts opportunities.

Malcolm says

The other thing to keep in mind is that $78,000 was the average when the articles I quoted were written. The prices had only been going up until that point. Wait until they start taking $250,000 baths on these really high end homes, which I think is where they were really investing heavily as those had the most upside.

Just glancing at their balance sheet on Yahoo Finance, it looks like they went from $135 million of inventory (being worked on and ready to be sold, I'm guessing) one year ago and grew the "flipping business" to almost $1,170 billion of inventory this past quarter. If the market goes south, that is, as they say, a lot of pergranteel. At the same time, a ten percent loss in the market would be vaporize a little over a $100 million.

EBGuy says

pergranteel

Lol, didn't know this term:

Pergraniteel™: Pergo fake wood floors, granite countertops, and steel appliances. It is an amalgamation of flipper’s most popular home improvements when improvements were made at all.

Example:

I also know house, where Zillow lost money. However it is not that tragic as someone thinks.

This is how Zillow offer looks like (true offer):

Market value
This is a starting estimate based on comparable homes in your area and list-ready condition. Your offer will be finalized after the evaluation.
Market value
$317,300
SELLING COSTS AND FEES
Zillow service chargeHelp
0.3%
Buyer agent commission and selling costsHelp
5%
Est. closing costsHelp
$2,466
RepairsHelp
Pending
Est. cash proceeds
$298,018
before repair costs

Zillow from published sales price deduct everything, including overpriced repair/upgrade costs. You are getting on hand much less.
Zillow is trying do not put any money into transaction. Even they will sell at same price as published purchase price, they still make some money.

Patrick says

Lol, didn't know this term:

I swear I learned it on Patnet at the time of the last crash.

EBGuy says

Patrick says

Lol, didn't know this term:

I swear I learned it on Patnet at the time of the last crash.

Same here.

HeadSet says

Same here.

That's crazy; we joined Patnet within 5 days of each other. What a long strange trip it's been...

EBGuy says

That's crazy; we joined Patnet within 5 days of each other.

Yep, back when Patrick was an Obama supporting lib.

REpro says

I also know house, where Zillow lost money. However it is not that tragic as someone thinks.

This is how Zillow offer looks like (true offer):

Market value
This is a starting estimate based on comparable homes in your area and list-ready condition. Your offer will be finalized after the evaluation.
Market value
$317,300
SELLING COSTS AND FEES
Zillow service chargeHelp
0.3%
Buyer agent commission and selling costsHelp
5%
Est. closing costsHelp
$2,466
RepairsHelp
Pending
Est. cash proceeds
$298,018
before repair costs

Zillow from published sales price deduct everything, including overpriced repair/upgrade costs. You are getting on hand much less.
Zillow is trying do not put any money into transaction. Even they will sell at same price as published purchase price, they still make some money.

That's actually a really good deal for that seller.

HeadSet says

EBGuy says

That's crazy; we joined Patnet within 5 days of each other.

Yep, back when Patrick was an Obama supporting lib.

Well, it's true, I was.

I think I have a much better understanding of reality now.

Patrick says

I think I have a much better understanding of reality now.

I had been a lifelong conservative Republican, but I too voted for Obama, and I still believe it was the best choice at the time, plus, it is nice to be on the right side of history as far as the whole first black President thing.

Malcolm says

Patrick says

I think I have a much better understanding of reality now.

I had been a lifelong conservative Republican, but I too voted for Obama, and I still believe it was the best choice at the time, plus, it is nice to be on the right side of history as far as the whole first black President thing.

Boooooo!

Who ran against Obama?

Oh, I remember, it was Hillary.

HunterTits says

Since when is voting for affirmative action preferences 'the right side of history'?

He won pretty handily because he had a clear vision and if you remember back to 2008, Republicans all of a sudden became very Socialist and revealed a privileged class who can never lose their wealth, no matter what they did. McCain, decent person, definitely a fan, had absolutely no direction.

Then 2012, while I feel Romney is also a decent person, and I respect him even more now, Obama seemed like the better choice, and the irony was his healthcare plan was based on Romney's model.

But yes, Biden has pushed me way back over to the right side.

Malcolm says

while I feel Romney is also a decent person, and I respect him even more now,

Romney voted to impeach Trump for looking in to the Biden corruption in Ukraine. Romney, like all the other bribe takers, think it is a crime for anyone to look into any politician's graft, payola, and other corrupt fringe benefits.

HeadSet says

Romney voted to impeach Trump for looking in to the Biden corruption in Ukraine. Romney, like all the other bribe takers, think it is a crime for anyone to look into any politician's graft, payola, and other corrupt fringe benefits.

That's one point of view. While I like the accomplishments of the Trump administration, I don't accept the whitewashing of his personal actions. He wasn't looking for an objective review, he simply wanted an announcement so that it would raise a cloud of doubt. I don't like people who operate that way, regardless of party affiliation.

Cloud of suspicion? Jesus, did you hear about all of the fake scandals like Russia gate?

He should have forced an investigation.

As of today 10.18.2021

"Zillow slid 6.4% in premarket trading, following a Bloomberg report that the company has temporarily stopped its home-buying service due to overwhelming demand."


RIIIIIIGGGHHHHTTTT! "Overwhelming Demand". Yeah you always stop offering a product when it's greeted with "overwhelming demand". This is newspeak for "we can't sustain the losses we are incurring".

Yup, it's been a loss leader for them. Paying $1.50 for $1.00 in revenue like a typical Harvard MBA grad. "We lose money on every transaction but we'll make it up in volume".

Morons.

stfu says

Zillow slid 6.4% in premarket trading, following a Bloomberg report that the company has temporarily stopped its home-buying service

Looks like Zillow is done buying homes for a while:

A report from Bloomberg. “Zillow, which acquired more than 3,800 homes in the second quarter, will stop pursuing new home purchases as it works through a backlog of properties already in its pipeline. ‘We are beyond operational capacity in our Zillow Offers business and are not taking on additional contracts to purchase homes at this time,’ a spokesperson for Zillow said.”

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/zillow-pauses-home-purchases-snags-160557830.html

This mean less pressure on home prices?

joshuatrio says

This mean less pressure on home prices?

I guess they got tired of losing money on their home purchases.

From Barron's:
“We’re operating within a labor- and supply-constrained economy inside a competitive real estate market, especially in the construction, renovation and closing spaces,” said Chief Operating Officer Jeremy Wacksman in a statement Monday. “We have not been exempt from these market and capacity issues and we now have an operational backlog for renovations and closings. Pausing new contracts will enable us to focus on sellers already under contract with us and our current home inventory.”

Malcolm says

That's one point of view. While I like the accomplishments of the Trump administration, I don't accept the whitewashing of his personal actions. He wasn't looking for an objective review, he simply wanted an announcement so that it would raise a cloud of doubt.

What do you mean a "cloud" of doubt?

There's a ton of sons and daughters of politicians that somehow ended up on the BOD of multiple companies in Ukraine, a nation the United States overthrew.

Our government is a fucking JOKE, and the main problem is there's so many fucking goobers that just say "well that can't be true! The teeeveeee would tell me if that were true!"

It's fucking true. We don't have a press, we don't have a media, we have propaganda, and their job is to cover for the COMPLETE criminality of our government. That's their ONLY job.

richwicks says

the main problem is there's so many fucking goobers that just say "well that can't be true! The teeeveeee would tell me if that were true!"

That is the problem in a nutshell.

They just refuse to believe things that would cause them anxiety.

EBGuy says

From Barron's:
“We’re operating within a labor- and supply-constrained economy inside a competitive real estate market, especially in the construction, renovation and closing spaces,” said Chief Operating Officer Jeremy Wacksman in a statement Monday. “We have not been exempt from these market and capacity issues and we now have an operational backlog for renovations and closings. Pausing new contracts will enable us to focus on sellers already under contract with us and our current home inventory.”

Hard to believe since it's widely known that they do little or nothing to the houses.

A report from Bloomberg. “Zillow’s iBuying business loses money, so stopping purchases should help its bottom line, analyst Ygal Arounian said in a note. ‘This feels like they bought way too many homes and they’re trying to work off that excess supply,’ said Jonathan Miller, president of appraisal firm Miller Samuel.”

From CNN Business. “iBuyer share in some cities, like Phoenix, Atlanta or Charlotte, North Carolina, now tops 5%. ‘Zillow just kept barreling down and now they’ve hit this wall,’ said Mike DelPrete, an independent real estate technology strategist. This is not the situation a growth-focused company wants to be in, he said. ‘If you’re trying to be number one in the market, slamming on the brakes is one of the worst things you can do,’ said DelPrete.”

From KLKN on Nebraska. “It was a housing market frenzy just a few months ago with homes getting snatched up within hours and lots of buyers being forced to make some tough and risky decisions. ‘One of the terms that would be tossed out to be more competitive earlier this spring was to waive inspections. So, they were just buying the house as is, not doing an inspection, you just get what you get. That was a little scary,’ Melanie Dawkins, with Red Door Realty, said.”

“The Lincoln housing market has turned the corner and things are looking up for buyers and sellers. Dawkins says it’s technically still a sellers market but things have slowed down substantially and given everyone more time to think about their decisions. ‘Right now, I can say we’re gonna go look at a handful of these. You can think about them overnight, let’s talk about it tomorrow and see what you think of it. That’s a lot better for making such an amazingly huge decision. This is the most expensive purchase you’ll ever make,’ Dawkins said.”

http://housingbubble.blog/?p=5263

My understanding of Zillow's buy and flip arm is, they count the future necessary repairs as part of their "buy price" which artificially humps retail housing prices ever higher. Works a treat while the bubble is growing and they're flipping lots of homes at bubble inflated prices while buying distressed low on the back end. Can fall the F apart quickly once the bubble bursts. Hard to say if this isn't anticipating the usual winter slowdown of retail home sales, or is the beginning of a long term slide in housing prices.

Zillow definitely pumping air into the real estate bubble the way they report the "purchase price" of their flipper homes.

I wish Zillow would offer a service here in silicon valley. From what I can see of the standard real-estate agents, Zillow couldn't be worse. At least the bait-and-switch tactics would happen more quickly and more directly.

Does anyone think there might be a huge scramble of California sellers wishing to lock in the current capital gains tax rates? I've been thinking that federal long-term capital gains may increase 10 percentage points, costing me an additional $100k.

Fox 10 Phoenix in Arizona. “There has been a bit of a jolt to the real estate market, as Zillow announced it is halting its home buying program, called Zillow Offers, in Phoenix and other cities. ‘Zillow’s inventory has grown 1,000% since last year in Phoenix. Just in Phoenix,’ said Tina Tamboer, a Senior Analyst with The Cromford Report. ‘When they purchase a home, they have to sell it right away,’ said Tamboer. ‘Sometimes, you have to wait for that inventory to dissipate.'”

The Boston Globe. “The Greater Boston Association of Realtors, which tracks activity in 64 cities and towns in Eastern Massachusetts. It said the typical single-family home sold for $750,000 in September, a record for the month and up 10 percent from September 2020, but down 4 percent from August and the lowest median price in six months. That plateau comes as sales volume slows, particularly for single-family homes, which fell 13 percent from the same time last year, even as listings trended upward at the start of the traditionally busier fall season.”

A report from Pleasanton Weekly in California. “Buyer behavior has shifted during the second half of 2021 and is likely to continue into next year said Tina Hand, 2021 president of the Bay East Association of Realtors. Hand said buyers are backing off and sellers aren’t used to that. Asked how sellers are responding, Hand said, ‘I think they are a bit surprised that they aren’t getting the prices we were seeing even as recently as August and the beginning of September. They haven’t quite woken to the fact that the market is shifting. Sellers had been getting 15 or 20 multiple bids going $200,000 to $400,000 over the asking price, and that’s not happening,’ she said.”

“From August to September, the median sales price for a single-family home in Pleasanton dropped from $1.79 million to $1.56 million. Hand said, ‘There’s talk about a ‘housing bubble’ but the factors just aren’t there; this is not 2008. What happened then is not going to happen in 2021.'”

joshuatrio says

“From August to September, the median sales price for a single-family home in Pleasanton dropped from $1.79 million to $1.56 million. Hand said, ‘There’s talk about a ‘housing bubble’ but the factors just aren’t there; this is not 2008. What happened then is not going to happen in 2021.'”

"This time it's different!"

A report from WTOP. “About 1 million U.S. homeowners with a mortgage are still in some stage of a mortgage payment forbearance program with their lender. The current rate of delinquencies at all stages is 3.5%, and that is historically high. ‘The last time we saw this high of a level was back in 2008 and 2009 during the financial crisis. But what is different this time is that the foreclosure rate is at a historic low because of the forbearance program,’ said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors.”

joshuatrio says

said Lawrence Yun

Lawrence Yun? When it comes to wrong predictions, that fellow is a hole with no bottom.

HeadSet says

When it comes to wrong predictions, that fellow is a hole with no bottom.

Now, just what gender would that be?

HeadSet says

joshuatrio says

said Lawrence Yun

Lawrence Yun? When it comes to wrong predictions, that fellow is a hole with no bottom.

Paid shill.

A report from Gizmodo. “Zillow has been hemorrhaging cash in the home-buying arms race in certain markets. Bloomberg wrote: ‘Zillow put a record number of homes on the market in September. It also cut prices on nearly half of its U.S. listings in the third quarter.’ In some markets like Atlanta, Georgia, and Phoenix, Arizona, Zillow losing money on listings is particularly apparent, Bloomberg wrote. Its 250 active listings in Phoenix are about 6% under market price, which University of Colorado Boulder real estate expert Mike DelPrete told Bloomberg was about $29,000 off for the typical home.”

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/zillows-flips-are-now-flops/ar-AAQ0OPg

zzyzzx says

I guess they got tired of losing money on their home purchases.

It's hysterical. Every single one in my area that is listed is now listed for below what Zillow paid for it. ALL OF THEM!!!!

Here is an interesting NY Post story giving a little detail into what we noticed.

https://nypost.com/2021/10/28/zillows-flips-flop-hurting-profits-but-benefitting-homeowners/

After a real estate agent made him a lower offer than Zillow, Richard Flor of the Phoenix suburb Tolleson, Arizona decided to sell to the company this summer. Zillow paid him approximately $412,000 and charged only a 1 percent fee on the sale of his three-bedroom, three-bathroom rental property. Two weeks later, after making light repairs, Zillow listed the property for $387,000 — $3,000 less than what the agent had offered.