patrick.net

Zak says

If your trading bars strategy with 50 day (*Rin adds in correction: 50 week for longer term trending) moving averages worked, you would be a billionaire, with people piling in money for you to continuously beat the market.

Well, I was one of the starting junior partners at a hedge fund and yes, using that 50 MA as a starting point, did work if you built a money management strategy around it. Sure, I'm not a billionaire (instead, a low level new millionaire) but our top trader from London is worth well over $200M dollars today.

I suspect that if he keeps going the way he does, he may reach that billionaire point by retirement.

It's not like "Oh, it broke 50 MA, everyone 'GO LONG'! It's more like, "Ok, there's a 50 MA correlation, if we kept the bullish calls below 50 MA at 40%-50% positional, can we up that to 60%, until a trend confirmation is held, and then we'll max it to 70%" That's the difference between being a trading house and being a bunch of yahoos out there who either double up or double down, every time a non-farm payroll announcement is made.

My near term prediction in yellow:

This is why I'm only risking my dividends from overpriced blue chips like P&G or Exxon-Mobil because in effect, that dividend cash will be replenished within a year's time frame.

If this turns into a bearish flag, as oppose to a re-test of the bullish channel, which could easily happen if both the Russ2K & EUR/USD completely breakdown, then the loss of that re-occurring revenue from XBTF is $35 to $23 or ~35% of one's annual dividend payout.

That's no big deal from my perspective because if the general markets crash anyways, that money would have been lost in the DRIP with the overpriced blue chip stocks.

https://patrick.net/post/1343674?0#comment-1822813

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/how-bitcoin-mining-strengthens-electricity-grids?source=patrick.net

https://bitcoinist.com/new-york-bitcoin-mining-bill-receives-recognition/

The only reason I have heard for owning crypto is that it appreciates capital, i.e. goes up.

The problem is there is no real reason for it to go up except someone likes it more than you do.

When I saw a machine that took cash and gave you crypto in a convenience store in a shitty neighborhood I got a little clue; it was right next to the Lotto tickets.

I think they are both loser bets.

clambo says

gave you crypto in a convenience store in a shitty neighborhood

Well, those machines have moved on to better neighborhoods and thus, the suburbanites are on board for the next (if not final) run up.

FJB says

Lol... References from earthweb haha...

I know my bad but I couldn't help myself ;)
FJB says

I'm mostly interested in bitcoin. I do believe most if not all the rest are shit coin in the long (sometimes short as Tenpound noted) term. What's your deal with XRP? Isn't that globalist coin?

@FJB As far as XRP very soon it is likely to be the 1st crypto that is officially tested by fire in the US court system of law as to if XRP is a security or a currency? If things go the way it seems in the SEC vrs Ripple case and Ripple wins the case the SEC brought against Ripple the price of XRP has incredible high odds of exploding higher.

XRP ledger is already integrating through out the world and will likely be a gigantic part of the way money and value of most any asset you can name fiat, RE, commodities etc. moves across the world and settle, it is phenomenally interoperable. "Isn't that globalist coin?" probably not with the connotation of the WEF but rather as a utility out right replacing the SWIFT system ISO 20022 Repository or a light years upgrade to that system and that is the basis that I am speculating with XRP. https://ripple.com/ripplenet?source=patrick.net https://www.coinsuggest.com/bank-ripple-xrp/?source=patrick.net

The deal is when SEC brought the case the exchanges in US shut it down and stopped offering XRP the riches nation in the world from buying it where the rest of the world has not skipped a beat where many of the worlds countries and largest financial institutions has already excepted XRP as a currency. https://www.coinsuggest.com/bank-ripple-xrp/and?source=patrick.net likely the reason for the very high demand for developers in this space. https://boards.greenhouse.io/ripple?source=patrick.net https://crypto.jobs/?source=patrick.net

Currently I have 40+ stacks of different tokens that I am speculating with high odds on their utility becoming something in this space and yes there are 18500+/- coins and most after the courts settles Sec vrs Ripple lawsuit will most of them will be considered utilities...
.

@FJB Also keep you ears open when you read or listen to many world financial leaders bank and federal even here in the US talk about ODL and cross border pmts with inclusion. Ripple which was developed 2nd I believe 2012 even before ETH and has developed the largest network bar none of institutions using XRP ledgers for its ODL and instant pmt system and in part why there is such a high high demand for app developers in this space.... BTW I am still stacking XRP using DEFI exchanges.

FJB says

@cash I'm mostly interested in bitcorn.

Keep in mind brother both BTC and ETH could be in the SECs sight to sue due to they used ICOs in there beginnings which makes them a security not really a currency. The problem being the leaders in the SEC all were representing BTC and or ETH before, while and after working for the gov. collecting pay.

Cash says

XRP ledger is already integrating through out the world

I've seen the IMF shill for it big time. Dubious.

@Rin
From what you've seen, how well does 50EMA (or any other EMA or MA) work in a situation which strongly depends on external factors? Crypto is that, kinda: there are military conflicts, a country leadership may start a holy war against crypto, etc.

@FJB
Not sure your location but assume it's USA and so if you would like to get a stack of XRP to speculate let me know.
If you are in US using US regulated exchanges you can't buy XRP but just wait till this case is settled and it is re-listed.

BREAKING: The ECON committee of the EU Parliament just voted against the de-facto POW-ban: 32 against, 24 in favor.
https://coin.fyi/news/bitcoin/the-voting-concluded-the-eu-has-voted-against-the-pow-ban-tdzcwv?source=patrick.net

mostly reader says

@Rin
From what you've seen, how well does 50EMA (or any other EMA or MA) work in a situation which strongly depends on external factors? Crypto is that, kinda: there are military conflicts, a country leadership may start a holy war against crypto, etc.

Here's the thing, the 50 EMA, using long term price bars, like one candlestick per week (or month), gives the general trend of the market. And yes, external factors can wreck havoc which is why the Zimbabwe dollar is not highly active on the forex.

Let me illustrate the political situation with Hong Kong with its chart ...



As anyone can tell, the above is highly volatile & one could even say, unstable. Yet, using the long term 50 EMA, one can see the bullish vs bearish zones despite the fact that it's rough territory & thus, I don't expect to find many buy 'n hold types there except for those who're forced to live in Hong Kong & spend money there.

And I'm guessing that short term traders are very keen on having hard stop-losses when their position reverses.

FYI, I don't know of anyone who trades it.

Rin says

Well, I was one of the starting junior partners at a hedge fund

My take on this: you got your hands on other people's money, and made a commission on the biggest fed supported bull market in the history of the world, and you could have slept and mirrored VOO and been up how many percent since 2008? AND someone paid you commission to do so?

Hmm, so it sounds like you were good at finding an in to a hedge fund that can market to those willing to pay a commission. I get it.. I watched wolf of wall street. I know there are sheep to be shorn... Now that you've shown your colors as a marketing frontman to financial leeches, how are we supposed to trust you MORE that bitcoin isn't another of your greed is good cons? Especially since you ignore every sound long term asset purchase indicator in your promotion of it? Your answer is CHART ANALYSIS!??!?!?!?

BWAHAHAHAAHAHAAHAHA

Zak says

how are we supposed to trust you

Because I told most ppl to simply buy tobacco stocks w/ DRIP ...

https://patrick.net/post/1343674?0#comment-1821891

Let me illustrate that with a dividend reinvestment calculator using the worst years for stocks, 2007 to 2010 for a $10K investment of Altria ...



So there you have it. If you don't want to swing trade crypto, then stick with tobacco for all of the time.

Rin says

So there you have it. If you don't want to swing trade crypto, then stick with tobacco for all of the time.

With that stated, using the DRIPs with Proctor & Gamble or Exxon-Mobil, one is buying blue chips at a market peak. In other words, they're too expensive.

Aside from Altria, British-American Tobacco, & Rio Tinto, I'm only using the dividend stream from the overpriced blue chips for the swing trade in bitcoin. This is money which will return automatically to my account, ever year, for as long as I own those equities.

Visa seeks new college grads for Crypto Development Program
https://cointelegraph.com/news/visa-seeks-new-college-grads-for-crypto-development-program?source=patrick.net
Successful candidates will, among many other tasks, "define Visa’s crypto strategy and identify new product opportunities."

Money Money Money ----- MONEY!!!

Cash says

Visa seeks new college grads for Crypto Development Program

Whenever I hear of this type of stuff, I go back to my 'buy 'n hold' tobacco stocks pitch because if you can't make money on smokers then you're never going to make money doing anything else.

This program sounds like a way of grinding promising young interns into an experimental track with only a glimmer of a full time gig but for the most part, spit 'em out with 1.5 years of Visa International on their resume.

Rin says

Whenever I hear of this type of stuff, I go back to my 'buy 'n hold' tobacco stocks pitch because if you can't make money on smokers then you're never going to make money doing anything else.

This program sounds like a way of grinding promising young interns into an experimental track with only a glimmer of a full time gig but for the most part, spit 'em out with 1.5 years of Visa International on their resume.

And do you know what? I don't give a flying fuck if that's the case it's on them... Any more lots of programming jobs are short term and not only that don't they like to use India cheap educated labor?

Rin says

Whenever I hear of this type of stuff, I go back to my 'buy 'n hold' tobacco stocks pitch because if you can't make money on smokers then you're never going to make money doing anything else.

It's all good you have the right to look at it anyway you wish...

And like I totally proved there is a big demand all over the world!!!
https://crypto.jobs/?source=patrick.net Jobs Galore, lots of them so high demand will = Money Money Money ----- MONEY!!!

Rin says

Now, contrast the above with that of BITCOIN vs USD.

It seems that buying when 50 EMA is tested would've been exactly the right thing to do. All the "past performance is not an indicator of future performance" provisions apply, but the accuracy is uncanny.

mostly reader says

All the "past performance is not an indicator of future performance" provisions apply, but the accuracy is uncanny.

I believe a lot of that is that of market structure. Right now, as long as the Rus2K & EUR/USD don't collapse and then we don't see a re-play of the 2008 crash across all markets, the current bullishness on the Bitcoin will hold out to re-test its channel.

Now, given the fact that both the Rus2K & EUR/USD are continually re-testing their respective lows, perhaps this could happen. In other words, if the XBTF drops from the congestion zone between 35 and 40, and into the lower 20s (along with Rus2K & EUR/USD), then basically, sell all your non-tobacco blue chips (i.e. PG, XOM, ED, MMM, etc) and wait for the crash.

Why do Rus2K & EUR/USD warrant special attention? Because they were also a tell in 2008?

mostly reader says

Why do Rus2K & EUR/USD warrant special attention?

Read this ...

https://patrick.net/post/1343403/2022-01-23-rin-s-trader-friend-s-market-crash-indi

Mexican billionaire eyes bitcoin mining with geothermal energy
https://www.thinkgeoenergy.com/mexican-billionaire-eyes-bitcoin-mining-with-geothermal-energy/?source=patrick.net
Utilising power generated by the geothermal power plant of Domo San Pedro in Mexico, billionaire Ricardo Salinas plans to mine Bitcoins in Mexico.

Rin says

mostly reader says

Why do Rus2K & EUR/USD warrant special attention?

Read this ...

https://patrick.net/post/1343403/2022-01-23-rin-s-trader-friend-s-market-crash-indi

Got it, thanks. About Russ, that is. Also makes it worth looking into - whether the opposite discrepancy, when smaller players outperform behemoths, could be a tell for good things to come.
What about EUR/USD, why does that matter? It seems instinctively true that "strong USD = good", but when crisis occurs it usually occurs in EUR countries too. That makes it a bit more difficult to explain the correlation.

mostly reader says

EUR/USD

Usually, it's the confluence of the EUR/USD & GBP/USD (with a greater weighing towards the EUR as its the higher volume on the forex) making newer multi-year lows than during bullish highs of the major US markets.

And continental Europe's problems don't necessarily affect Britain at the same time & the USD strengthening effect is over longer periods of time, not around singular events like the Crimean/Ukraine war.

So right now, the EUR is close to doing it while the GBP is holding up above its multi-year low. All and all, with the Fed's latest hike, we'll see how this pans out in the months ahead.

One more time ... if the markets uniformly collapse, do not sell your holdings of Altria, British-American Tobacco, & Rio Tinto.

Those stocks give great dividends and during a meltdown, where all stock prices fall, your dividend payouts will double & then, you'll have a lot more re-invested equities under your belt.

This is the opposite advice for overpriced blue chips where yes, you should sell before the meltdown because you'll lose all of your cap gains.

Let me give you an example, here's my local power company, Eversource (ES) ...



It gives a 3% dividend but here's the issue ... it never experienced a single price reduction/fluctuation for the longest period of time. It's a perma-bull, always above the 50 MA regardless. So here's the story, when the market crashes, I'll doubt that New Englanders won't need power and thus, Eversource will be a 8-10% dividend stock giving one a retirement income with little chance of going out of business.

And others, like Proctor & Gamble, have had much higher price climbs than Eversource. At least ES is slowing down.

Which big companies use blockchain and crypto?
https://cryptonews.net/news/blokcheyn/3902561/?source=patrick.net
In addition, 55 of the world’s top 100 banks by volume of assets under management have invested in blockchain companies, as have 36 of the world’s top 100 listed companies.
These include Alphabet (formerly Google), Microsoft, Samsung, Intel, PayPal, Goldman Sachs, Mastercard and Visa, to name but the best known.

So we can conclude fuck BBB
https://patrick.net/post/1336460/2020-11-10-bitcoin-misinformation#last

Using last year's chart, we're still in the price congestion zone & hoping for a breakout above it ...

Ok, this is the first week where bitcoin closed above the price congestion area (for the sell off period of late 2021 to early 2022) ...



Keeping an eye on the Rus2K "holding its ground", as a barometer for the general market meltdown (or not), it's time for bitcoin to either go big or go home.

big jump today, it hit 46k

Rin says

it's time for bitcoin to either go big or go home.

Nope, just more sideways action for commodities, crypto and possibly the equities market imo. Until the USD index dumps and it don't look like much of a chance of that atm
the banks and institutions are still raiding the coffers yet needing USDs to unwind and capture their ill begotten gains and rich's. Markets are way more about supply chain issues then the inflation/weak USD theory.

BTW there are many way better speculation plays in crypro then BTC and ETH plays.

Cash says

BTW there are many way better speculation plays in crypro then BTC and ETH plays.

For example?

PeopleUnited says

Cash says

BTW there are many way better speculation plays in crypro then BTC and ETH plays.

For example?

Eh... run a business and print your own money and use the tax structure to your benefit. Crypto is not the way to riches. I've been staying out of these threads, but this is fact. You'll make more money in RE or running a business. I don't know a single 7+ figure wealth person not doing real estate or running a business AND doing crypto. Stock traders (which crypto is) generally are broke and talk a big game but aren't actually wealthy and it can dry up at any moment. People need housing, goods and services. Crypto does none of that. Not hating, just factual statements. Someone can tell me if I'm wrong. And no, I don't buy metals, so this isn't a physical asset comment.

Invest in things people NEED. I dislike Buffet as a person, but his strategy is mostly sound. If you need goods, buy BNSF. People need food and drink. Buy large amounts of companies that provide that or transport it.

WookieMan says

Not hating, just factual statements.

Why lie? All you do is hate on crypto with your very shallow worthless opinion over and over again coming from left field with nothing new or beneficial to this topic.
This being way more factual then anything you have said about crypto.

PeopleUnited says

For example?

Some of my favorites are $XRP $HBAR $XDC $SOL $LINK $XLM $ADA $ALGO $VET $LRC to name a few.
Take a note of their price today and come back towards the end of the year some will 10x and perhaps much more and some will hardly
move+/-. Remember the point of my post was speculating nothing more nothing less.