patrick.net

don’t have them. but friend installed panels, we did work together wasn’t bad at all, saved a lot of money. just paid 500 for design. because of very low cost of self install with friends help he is saving money according to him after 4 years.

he isn’t disconnected, no battery, just panels pushing to grid. some cheap chinese panels.

hope this helps.

Eman says

Cost is $17.4K after tax incentives. It would cover my monthly electricity bill of $230/mo on average. Add in a powerwall will increase the cost by $8k. Without the powerwall, it’s about 15% ROI. What am I missing?

ROI works if your capital remains intact. That is, if you put that $17.4k in the bank and got $230/mo, that would be 15% ROI. In the case of solar panels, that $17.4k is a sunk cost and you must include a payback period to calculate a return. You are 6 years before you make a dime, and that is if the solar panels wipe out your entire electric bill for that time.

How did you calculate it?

I think the right way to model a decision like this is to make sure you account for cost of capital, and the calculations should use compound interest math, including expectations of future electric prices. I usually code my own calculators (which I wont share, as it would disclose my identity), but here's a calc that's on the web and can be shoehorned into working decently for this type of solar calculation.

solar cost = 24K + tax - 6600k rebate = about $19k capital outlay
monthly savings is usually your current bill minus about $10 minimum fee = $220

The idea is to model 2 scenarios:

#1 no solar, no $19k solar capital outlay, you will still pay $220 electric bill every month (w/ a 3% / yr bill increase), but you buy 19k of stocks or some other investment that will grant 7% CAGR (or whatever rate you feel is realistic).
#2 you buy solar instead of stocks, no more electric bill.

1 https://financialmentor.com/calculator/compound-interest-calculator?principal=100000&annualInterest=7&compoundingInterval=360&growType=2&yearsToGrow=20&additionFrequency=30&additionalAmount=-220&increaseContributionsBy=3&annualInflationRate=0&compute=1&source=patrick.net

2 https://financialmentor.com/calculator/compound-interest-calculator?principal=81000&annualInterest=7&compoundingInterval=360&growType=2&yearsToGrow=20&additionFrequency=30&additionalAmount=0&increaseContributionsBy=3&annualInflationRate=0&compute=1&source=patrick.net

The trick is to enter a sufficiently large starting account balance number to avoid going negative during the sim due to 20yrs of monthly electric bills. It doesnt matter what number you choose is, as long as you use the same figure for both calculations minus the 19k in #2. I used 100k and 81k. The reason the number doesnt matter is because we compare the ending figures to arrive at our desired final figure, which tells you how much better scenario 1 was vs 2.

I used 20 years since that's a typical solar system lifespan. I also set inflation to 0% because we account for inflation via the "Increase yearly contributions by" field, and assume the 7% CAGR for stocks is already inflation adjusted. So using the "average annual inflation rate" field would double adjust.

in 20 yrs, scenario #1 leaves you with $245,609 and #2 leaves you with $313,444

313,444 - 245,609 = $67,835

So in this case, scenario 2 was better by 67k, meaning solar offered gains above and beyond stocks by a good margin. It worked out to about 13% CAGR. Of course everyone needs to enter their own variables though.

Breakeven, where solar overtook stocks, occurred at about yr 9.

btw, https://projectsolar.io/?source=patrick.net has really good prices, both for a self install kit and full service install. Not sure of quality, but parts wise they use black mono panels and enphase micro inverters, which is considered good stuff generally. I plan to use them for a small system maybe this year.

Hircus says

btw, https://projectsolar.io/?source=patrick.net has really good prices, both for a self install kit and full service install. Not sure of quality, but parts wise they use black mono panels and enphase micro inverters, which is considered good stuff generally. I plan to use them for a small system maybe this year.

Thanks for sharing Hirus. You’re getting too fancy with the calculations, but I get the point. You’re likely an engineer with the way you analyze things. 9 years to break even is good enough. About 11% ROI.

Solar panels are ugly on a home. I am going to research it more when we go to build, but likely won't pull the trigger due to hail storms here. It would be built into the final home loan, so it would be the best time to do it, but my insurance rates go up because of the panels. Or I risk not insuring them. If I insure then I still have a minor monthly cost. But this is the forever home, so it might be worth it. We'll see.

If the build happens I'll probably start a thread for it and talk about all sorts of shit. Solar, pool, low voltage wiring for speakers and whole home shit, etc. I've been involved in a lot of builds, but this one is my baby and I'm not going to fuck around. No expense spared and I want to plan for future stuff. Gas lines, electric, internet and speaker cable run everywhere inside and out. Natural gas backup. Radiant heat in garage so I don't have a noisy heater and driveway so I don't have to shovel during winter. Hard wired cameras. Might do sprinkler system with a connection I have (inside) and also outside. My dog will likely pass soon, but still may put in an electric fence for a dog while excavating for the foundation. Lots to think of.

I've been using a small solar panel to maintain a questionable vehicle battery for several years now. This vehicle is rarely used and parked outdoors. Solar panel wasn't even installed until the battery was already almost bad.

I wanted to have solar panels installed in my last home in Las Vegas. The house was about 6000 square feet and being in Vegas I figured it would be ideal to have solar. Well, the house was too big for the special discounts that they offer so I would have had to spend way too much money up front to get eventual savings down the line and then, if I kept the house, the panels would have to be replaced, so I said, eff it and just made sure the house was as insulated as possible and we did triple glazing in all the windows and doors. Because I had the place done with 8 zones for the air and heating, it wasn't too bad to air condition in the summer. It was much cheaper than my house in Palm Springs which was a bit smaller. Putting in lots of different A/C zones allowed me to close off parts of the house when not in use (guest suites) and just cool the places I use most often. I have friends who installed solar in Vegas and who love the fact that their energy bills are super low.

WillyWanker says

It was much cheaper than my house in Palm Springs which was a bit smaller. Putting in lots of different A/C zones allowed me to close off parts of the house when not in use (guest suites) and just cool the places I use most often.

This. Optimization of what you plan to use and when you plan to use it. And the ability to control the use.

You can get huge savings from basic things like zones, insulation, blinds, lights, motion sensors, toilets, shower heads, etc. that are relatively cheap when compared to the costs of a solar setup. Regardless of solar covering all your costs, you still pay taxes and fees for it being connected to your house to the utility. At least here in IL. Insure the panels.

I don't know, I don't think it's worth the effort. At least here in IL for sure. Too cloudy. Also, saving $50-100/mo is not really worth it for solar. We make over $100/hr anyway, so it kind of feels like coupon clipping to me. Though I'd consider it on a build.

Eman says

. It would cover my monthly electricity bill of $230/mo on average.

Looks like PG&E just upped summer rates to $.49/kwHr for above baseline usage during peak hours (4-9pm) summer months. Yikes. For the amount you use, it be insane not to get solar...

EBGuy says

Looks like PG&E just upped summer rates to $.49/kwHr for above baseline usage during peak hours (4-9pm) summer months. Yikes. For the amount you use, it be insane not to get solar...

I believe that here in California there are many more considerations about how the prices work. Someone I know even splurged the extra $8k(?) for battery, and not for backup. Something about how payments work is that you can get a hefty price charge from PG&E because of time-of-use metering. You can have enough solar panels to completely cover all your electrical use and then still wind up with a fairly hefty electrical bill at the end of the year.

What happens if the roof under the panels needs repair? Who is responsible for removing/re-installing them? Will removal of the panels by someone other than the original installer void the warranty? What happens if the original installer is already out of business by then?

SunnyvaleCA says

I believe that here in California there are many more considerations about how the prices work. Someone I know even splurged the extra $8k(?) for battery, and not for backup. Something about how payments work is that you can get a hefty price charge from PG&E because of time-of-use metering. You can have enough solar panels to completely cover all your electrical use and then still wind up with a fairly hefty electrical bill at the end of the year.

Yeah, it’s one of those things we don’t know until we try it. 😂

Yeah, $8k is for each powerwall after the incentive. Otherwise, it’s $11k a piece.

EBGuy says

For the amount you use, it be insane not to get solar...

I’m a YOLO guy. I blast the A/C when it’s hot and crank up the heater when it’s cold. I don’t care if it’s peak or off-peak. At the end of the day, spend an extra $100-$200/month to be comfortable is a small price to pay.

The reason I looked into solar b/c my biz partner wanted to install solar panels for a couple of our apartment buildings. A few years ago, my friend told me to install solar, but I ignored him. Back then, each powerwall was $6.5k a piece. Talk about inflation.

Eman says

Yeah, $8k is for each powerwall after the incentive. Otherwise, it’s $11k a piece.

Do these powerwalls act as a UPS for the entire house? So far this year my computer has gone down twice — both times thanks to PG&E.

SunnyvaleCA says

Do these powerwalls act as a UPS for the entire house? So far this year my computer has gone down twice — both times thanks to PG&E.

According to Tesla website, the powerwall should be able to provide about 2 days worth of electricity for the entire house when the power is out.

Eman says

SunnyvaleCA says

Do these powerwalls act as a UPS for the entire house? So far this year my computer has gone down twice — both times thanks to PG&E.

According to Tesla website, the powerwall should be able to provide about 2 days worth of electricity for the entire house when the power is out.

Really? With AC and pool
pump and such? Color me skeptical.

RWSGFY says

Really? With AC and pool
pump and such? Color me skeptical.

It’s based on an average $230/month usage. If you average $460 for that month, don’t be surprise it only lasts for a day.

PowerWall+:
Energy Capacity
13.5 kWh
Backup Power
9.6kW / 7kW continuous*
22kW / 10kW peak*
*Full sun / no sun

You're definitely going to want to shed some load if you're at the higher end of the usage range.

For comparison:
The first generation Nissan Leaf came with a 24 kWh battery which allowed it a maximum range of 84 miles. The 2016 model bumped up battery capacity to 30 kWh and range was increased to 107 miles.

Eman says

Who here installed solar panels on their home? How has it been working out for you?

I've started on that journey by trying to decide between Tesla roof and just panels. It's a hard choice because my roof is in not new but in a good shape. My understanding is that when panels and roof lifecycles are out of sync, there's extra headache involved - you can't replace the roof without taking down the panels and then reinstalling them. On the other hand, Tesla roof is significantly more, and I'd be giving away the unused portion of the lifespan of the roof that I have today. Not sure how to go about it.

mostly reader says

Eman says

Who here installed solar panels on their home? How has it been working out for you?

I've started on that journey by trying to decide between Tesla roof and just panels. It's a hard choice because my roof is in not new but in a good shape. My understanding is that when panels and roof lifecycles are out of sync, there's extra headache involved - you can't replace the roof without taking down the panels and then reinstalling them. On the other hand, Tesla roof is significantly more, and I'd be giving away the unused portion of the lifespan of the roof that I have today. Not sure how to go about it.

best advice i can give you.
never combine tech.

keep em separate. your panels break, you still got a roof.

I'm going to put some panels on a little place in Baja California Sur Mexico.
It's sunny all the time there.
I'm going to get a mini split air conditioner which can run on solar (AC/DC).
We'll see how it goes.

@clambo Please do tell us how it goes.

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

best advice i can give you.
never combine tech.

keep em separate. your panels break, you still got a roof.

That's a valid point. Just looked it up - solar warranty is 25y, warranty against leaks is 10y for the roof. This mismatch is an orange flag.

Democrats do what democrats do.

The California Public Utilities Commission was in Chico on Thursday to discuss a controversial solar panel tax.

The tax would charge Californians with rooftop solar between $300 and $600 a year, while also reducing a consumer's net metering.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/it-s-nonsensical-chico-residents-blast-possible-tax-on-solar-panels/ar-AA13IVVn?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=34eb419bc60748ef95b280494af5029b

Solar really doesn't work in many places. IL for example maybe gets 6-8 hours maybe of quality sun assuming it's not raining/snowing this time of year. Not nearly enough energy to justify the expense. I'd be better off getting air tight foam insulation than solar in my climate. Plus we get at least 1-3 hail storms every year. Solar panels don't stand a chance here. I don't know why people get them.

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

keep em separate. your panels break, you still got a roof.

Ground based solar for the win!

zzyzzx says

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

keep em separate. your panels break, you still got a roof.

Ground based solar for the win!

Fuck ground based for residential. They look like pure shit. A neighbor has some. I want to smash them. Hell they look like shit on roofs. I'm sorry, solar is retarded. If it worked we'd all be on it by now. Pretty telling.

WookieMan says

Solar really doesn't work in many places. IL for example maybe gets 6-8 hours maybe of quality sun assuming it's not raining/snowing this time of year. Not nearly enough energy to justify the expense. I'd be better off getting air tight foam insulation than solar in my climate. Plus we get at least 1-3 hail storms every year. Solar panels don't stand a chance here. I don't know why people get them.

Since you don’t know why some of your IL folks installed solar panels, have you asked anyone of them to find out?

For some of us Californians, the numbers are quite close to pencil out. The electricity cost has gone up from 12 to 25 cents in the last 5 years, installing solar panels will insure the cost is fixed going forward.

Eman says

WookieMan says

Solar really doesn't work in many places. IL for example maybe gets 6-8 hours maybe of quality sun assuming it's not raining/snowing this time of year. Not nearly enough energy to justify the expense. I'd be better off getting air tight foam insulation than solar in my climate. Plus we get at least 1-3 hail storms every year. Solar panels don't stand a chance here. I don't know why people get them.

Since you don’t know why some of your IL folks installed solar panels, have you asked anyone of them to find out?

For some of us Californians, the numbers are quite close to pencil out. The electricity cost has gone up from 12 to 25 cents in the last 5 years, installing solar panels will insure the cost is fixed going forward.

I'll have to side with the wookie when it comes to north of Mason-Dixon. Fuel pumps are probably the better play, especially, when winters can last 6 months, and hot (>80F) summer days can almost be counted on two hands. If you live around the Great Lakes, the solar panels are partially or completely covered in ice and snow in the winter, and don't get full sun from mid/late November through March/April.

Eman says

WookieMan says

Solar really doesn't work in many places. IL for example maybe gets 6-8 hours maybe of quality sun assuming it's not raining/snowing this time of year. Not nearly enough energy to justify the expense. I'd be better off getting air tight foam insulation than solar in my climate. Plus we get at least 1-3 hail storms every year. Solar panels don't stand a chance here. I don't know why people get them.

Since you don’t know why some of your IL folks installed solar panels, have you asked anyone of them to find out?

For some of us Californians, the numbers are quite close to pencil out. The electricity cost has gone up from 12 to 25 cents in the last 5 years, installing solar panels will insure the cost is fixed going forward.

It's sales here. We don't have enough sunlight half the year. Even then we have solid cloud cover 40-50% of the time. The square footage you have on a roof here will NEVER get you to no electric bills. Bigger roof, bigger bills. You'd have to do the roof and an array in your yard.

Basically you reduce your bill by maybe 40-50% at the cost of $15k plus. Probably closer to $20-25k. ROI is shit, there's no point. They look like shit too. Increase in insurance. It's simply not worth it where I'm at. 1,000%. You're a common idiot if you put them on your roof here in IL.

I'd think about wind where I'm located. But that would just be to run the pool pump for free. Solar is not practical for the vast majority of the country. Between night and cloud cover most places it makes no sense. It would take 10+ years to pay off. CA, NV, AZ sure, not most other places when you account for weather. Insulating your home better will pay for itself in 3-5 years. And your house doesn't look like shit.

Also, I've assisted with 5 Silver LEED certified single family home builds in Chicago. Solar checked the least boxes for our region. So many other factors that can reduce energy usage.

.

I would want a payback period or break even point of no more than 6.5 years for solar installation given the many risks associated with solar panels and the systems.

The Florida panhandle is about average for solar and in the middle of the scale for the NREL map link below. The southwest like Phoenix is the Saudi Arabia for solar:



.

And then you have this as far as home insurers dropping coverage for homes with solar panels on roofs:

https://www.floridarealtors.org/news-media/news-articles/2022/08/some-insurers-dropping-owners-who-install-solar-panels

.

https://www.ewg.org/news-insights/news-release/2022/05/gov-newsom-says-rooftop-solar-essential-californias-future
An analysis by the Solar Rights Alliance, a coalition of more than 600 organizations fighting to protect the rooftop solar program, found this latest scheme by regulators would impose a yearly solar tax on residents of between $300 and $600.
Not a good news to have solar panels.

ad says

I would want a payback period or break even point of no more than 6.5 years for solar installation given the many risks associated with solar panels and the systems.

This is one of the big reasons I've avoided solar for so long - future uncertainty. In the 2000s, many in CA started getting solar systems, but unless they were very high energy users, the numbers just didn't work out well for most ppl. The solar salesman and their MANY affiliate websites hosting calculators all use overly simplistic math devoid of compound interest, opportunity cost, and miscellaneous risk factors, producing rosy but unrealistic numbers, making many people waste their money. But solar prices have come down a lot, and around 5yrs ago, solar prices actually finally do make financial sense for tons of people. But net metering is a huge part of the solar investment math working out well.

Over the past decade I've watched the net metering agreements in CA slowly but surely get less and less generous every few years, which made me worry that a solar system may make financial sense today, but would it still make sense in 5-10 years after things keep changing? I've also heard many people point out the obvious destination - if a region has most customers on solar, where most people use the utility only for the occasional backup power source on cloudy days, how will the utilities stay in business? Prices will have to rise, and the burden will be on the rich privileged people with solar.

I didn't think they would ever charge a straight up annual fee for solar users. But I did expect a general erosion of the appeal of solar via making you pay more for grid power and being connected to it. So I felt the same as you - the benefits of solar needs to have a margin of safety, so I get paid back quickly before too much changes.

This CA fee would really affect me too. I don't use much power, and so the small solar system I was planning on installing soon only saves me ~$75 a mo. This proposed CA fee is basically $25-50/mo, which destroys the economics for me. Maybe I'll just use an unpermitted bootleg system, with panels on the ground, and backfeeding a few hundred watts of power into one of my outlets. But they would probably catch me eventually - solar panels are so easy to see from satellite or drone image.

Another of many reasons to leave CA.

Solar is not designed to succeed. They, like green policies, are designed to fail while empowering the czars. They want us all to be energy beggars.

Solar panels are physical appliances, and an 'exposed to the elements' physical appliance to boot. Such appliances have inherent life expectancies of 10 to 15 years before deteriorating and requiring replacement. They are made of plastic and wires. Plastic and wires exposed to sunlight and the elements do not last that long. Batteries, if you haven't noticed, tend to deteriorate and fail even faster. All those so called 'green' devices wind up in toxic land fills pretty quickly.

Solar panels are fine in limited use applications, where the expectation is that they need to be replaced as needed.

Wiring harnesses in cars fail pretty frequently within 15 years, and they are under a lot less stress than solar panels.

Ceffer says

Solar is not designed to succeed. They, like green policies, are designed to fail while empowering the czars. They want us all to be energy beggars.

Solar panels are physical appliances, and an 'exposed to the elements' physical appliance to boot. Such appliances have inherent life expectancies of 10 to 15 years before deteriorating and requiring replacement. They are made of plastic and wires. Plastic and wires exposed to sunlight and the elements do not last that long. Batteries, if you haven't noticed, tend to deteriorate and fail even faster. All those so called 'green' devices wind up in toxic land fills pretty quickly.

Solar panels are fine in limited use applications, where the expectation is that they need to be replaced as needed.

Wiring harnesses in cars fail pretty frequently within 15 years, and they are under a lot less stress than solar panels.

Hey Ceffer, stop spreading misinformation...Solar is the future otherwise we all die in 8 more years..

ad says

I would want a payback period or break even point of no more than 6.5 years for solar installation given the many risks associated with solar panels and the systems.

how did you come up with the number 6.5?

Hircus says

But solar prices have come down a lot,

Probably the quality of the panels too, LOL

clambo says

I'm going to get a mini split air conditioner which can run on solar (AC/DC).

I have never seen a mini split AC that runs on DC. What voltage DC do they use?