patrick.net

Homes in Virginia are surprisingly reasonably priced. And yes, it is all relative. Plus, slavery is still legal in a few counties.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1824H-Springhill-Rd-Staunton-VA-24401/2065555327_zpid/

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/698-Suncrest-Ct-Rockingham-VA-22801/222306824_zpid/?source=patrick.net

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3045-Morewood-Ln-Charlottesville-VA-22901/79016965_zpid/

Florida is ending the 10-15 year cycle "Peak Phase". Probably accelerated by Yankees fleeing COVID rules, Weak Law Enforcement, taxes (as usual), and Wokeness.

5 years ago I brought a studio and got my Mother into a 1Bed/1Bath. Both were in the mid $70k range including some flooring and paint upgrading.

Today, my studio is $125k, and the 1 Bedroom is $159,000.

The studio rent (Space Coast) is $1600/month from $1200 last year (I lowered to $1500 so it would be snapped up fast, 9 showings last week which is unheard of going into Summer). Efficiency Bungalows for rent in my neighborhood in somebody's backyard are getting $1500+ also, so my price is market or better. The 1 Bedroom (Broward) is also $1600 for comparables.

In a couple of years, when rising rates and the inevitable crash happens (30% of new Floridians leave the state within 2 years), properties like these will probably decline 20-30% easy in price, and maybe $100 in rent if at all. That's when I'm a buyer.

One reason Florida has a big Yankee Leave Rate is that neither Trades nor Government Employees get within 20% of their IL/NY/NJ pay. If you make $30/hr as a carpenter or $80k as a teacher in NY, expect $22/hr and $65k in Florida. Part of the reason DeSantis is offering a $5k bonus is that Florida cops make 20-30% less than NY/NJ cops. While home prices used to be much cheaper, the recent COVID onslaught has caused a bubble making the wage differential less do-able.

There are a ton of 3-bed/2.5 bath homes, built in the 80s and 90s, going for $300k than were around $150k 2-3 years ago. Everybody knows they're ridiculously overpriced and will crash.

Meanwhile, spit out your window and hit the neighbor's wall Zero Lot homes - "Palmetto Springs: Luxury Living starting in the $400s" types are being built all over Central Florida. $500k in South Florida, way the hell out West far from work. Wouldn't touch with a ten foot pole.

Buy condos near the water when the market collapses in Florida. The Prices may swing, but the rents go up over the years.

EDIT: This $300k one will be ~$200k in 3 years, I'd bet. It was in the Upper $100k just a few years ago.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3799-S-Banana-River-Blvd-APT-112-Cocoa-Beach-FL-32931/54607786_zpid/?

I think house prices in Florida will drop when the boomers die off in 25 years.

AmericanKulak says

One reason Florida has a big Yankee Leave Rate is that neither Trades nor Government Employees get within 20% of their IL/NY/NJ pay.

Yup. That's one of the things that people don't realize about Florida, the pay scale is so much lower over there, and I've had many former colleagues turn down jobs even in Miami because they could get way more money in California or even Texas.

I'm not aware that people are leaving Florida, it seems to be the contrary.

Hircus says

They do work, but the amount of hydrogen produced is so miniscule ... I'm not even sure it's enough to boost your speed idle by 50 rpm.

It's an even tougher sell with today's highly efficient and tuned engines. That said, I really wished I could have tried it out with an old diesel Benz that I drove at one point.

This is from 2017, though still interesting. (Bear in mind Florida picked up a congressional seat as well in 2020).
Two States, A Third of Counties Have More Deaths Than Births
Florida had the highest percentage of its population age 65 and over in 2015 (19.4 percent), followed by Maine (18.8 percent) and West Virginia (18.2 percent). One county, Sumter County, Florida, has a majority of its population (54.8 percent) age 65 and over.
...
The locations of the counties with the greatest natural decrease shifts when only larger counties (those with populations greater than 100,000) are considered. Of counties above this population threshold (shown in the table below), Citrus County, Florida, has the highest rate of natural decrease at 10.5 per thousand. Seven of the top 10 larger counties with the highest rate of natural decrease are in Florida.

clambo says

I think house prices in Florida will drop when the boomers die off in 25 years.

I can't wait that long!

It's a bit upsetting to see prices skyrocketing in Florida over the last two years, but prices in silicon valley have been skyrocketing too. At a higher starting point, the absolute price increase in silicon valley is much higher. My shack added something like $1MM since the start of the Wu Flu. Zillow estimates another 20% increase in the next 12 months for my zipcode.

Some of us have lots of family in the SF Bay area / Sacramento area. We don't want to go too far.

For us, the Reno - Carson area, with no State Income Tax, beckons.

DooDahMan says

No. 3 Massachusetts’ reputation for top-notch schools and healthcare is a key lure as it was top-ranked for nurturing. It also scored high for livability (third-highest) and foundation (No. 14). The Bay State had mid-range grades for popularity (21st) and wealth (22nd) tied to its high cost of living.

From what I've seen, Californians do not like the weather of Massachusetts, with humid summers and cold/windy winters. If anything, the only Californians who're actually happy here went to school in places like Boston Univ, Harvard, etc, and have made their round of friends during those formative years and decided to trade off the weather for everything else.

Other CA folks do a 5 year stint and either move back home or find a warmer climate to hang up their boots. Read: MA, believe it or not, is highly nativist unless you went to college in the environs.

clambo says

I'm not aware that people are leaving Florida, it seems to be the contrary.

The 30% leave rate is constant, been true for decades. Of course, 2/3rd of the massive annual number stay. Florida's population has almost doubled in the past 30 years; when I first came it had a third less than NY's population. Today it's got a million or so more.

AmericanKulak says

clambo says

I'm not aware that people are leaving Florida, it seems to be the contrary.

The 30% leave rate is constant, been true for decades.

Is it getting younger though on average?

EBGuy says

The locations of the counties with the greatest natural decrease shifts when only larger counties (those with populations greater than 100,000) are considered. Of counties above this population threshold (shown in the table below), Citrus County, Florida, has the highest rate of natural decrease at 10.5 per thousand. Seven of the top 10 larger counties with the highest rate of natural decrease are in Florida.

There are amazing deals in Dixie, Levy, etc. counties - the curve of the panhandle. Steinhatchee is a fisherman's paradise.

The Counties on the GA border between Tallahassee and Jacksonville also have amazing deals if you like a rural lifestyle, and something like 3 seasons. Suwannee, Madison, etc. Not much cultural stuff going on but there's a pretty big Southern Folk festival there once a year.

BUT, in those regions you'll generally have a helluva drive if you need something outside of Ray's Bait and Tackle or the Highwayside Gas Station.

Stay the HELL away from Ocala, Gainesville, and Tallahassee and other blue pockets like the Tampa area. Full of Gangbangers and Methheads.

Sadly, Orange (Orlando), and slowly Seminole County are becoming Wokey Dokey Anti-White areas. Orange County in particular has very light handed treatment of Meth Thieves and Tresspassers. Florida has become more permissive in the decades; before the cops anywhere would have slapped the shit and packed away any Junkie to the State House for at least 5 years.

If you feel like being a pioneer on $20-30k for 1 or 2 acres, go to Palatka/Flagler Estates. General Zoning, almost everything goes. Just be well armed and have a dog, because a lot of the area is populated by methheads. No real jobs within 45 minutes though.

Just FYI if you see ANY land surrounded by lots with buildings except yours, 99% chance it's wetlands and not buildable without paying a big tax or transferring other lands into the registry. In other words, at least double or triple the price. That or the Realwhores/Developers pulled the land out of buildable and the other parcels are grandfathered in.

Massachusetts has a death tax with low threshold.

Connecticut: Estate tax of 10.8 percent to 12 percent on estates above $7.1 million
District of Columbia: Estate tax of 11.2 percent to 16 percent on estates above $4 million
Hawaii: Estate tax of 10 percent to 20 percent on estates above $5.5 million
Illinois: Estate tax of 0.8 percent to 16 percent on estates above $4 million
Iowa: Inheritance tax of up to 15 percent
Kentucky: Inheritance tax of up to 16 percent
Maine: Estate tax of 8 percent to 12 percent on estates above $5.8 million
Maryland: Estate tax of 0.8 percent to 16 percent on estates above $5 million; inheritance tax of up to 10 percent
Massachusetts: 0.8 percent to 16 percent on estates above $1 million
Minnesota: 13 percent to 16 percent on estates above $3 million
Nebraska: Inheritance tax of up to 18 percent
New Jersey: Inheritance tax of up to 16 percent
New York: Estate tax of 3.06 percent to 16 percent for estates above $5.9 million
Oregon: Estate tax of 10 percent to 16 percent on estates above $1 million
Pennsylvania: Inheritance tax of up to 15 percent
Rhode Island: Estate tax of 0.8 percent to 16 percent on estates above $1.6 million
Vermont: Estate tax of 16 percent on estates above $5 million
Washington: Estate tax of 10 percent to 20 percent on estates above $2.2 million

Inheritance and death taxes are commie bullshit. Surprised so many red states appear on that list.

HeadSet says

DooDahMan says

possession of a machine gun

"Machine gun?" As in a fully automatic weapon? Tommy gun? AK-47? M-4?

Glock that was modified for Full auto. Simple mechanical insert, apparently.
https://www.thefirearmblog.com/blog/2017/09/14/want-to-make-your-glock-full-auto/?source=patrick.net
I'd only go to this page incognito.

Another sneaky tax is on annuities, the “premium tax.”
California taxes it at 2.5% .
This is on top of income taxes.

Florida is a tax friendly state; it has no annuity tax, no death tax, no capital gains tax, no income tax.

Yep, there used to be an "intangibles" tax, but they got rid of it.

FarmersWon says

reasonable price growth of 6% ,

Housing "reasonable growth rate" should be more like 3%

Buy when there is blood on the streets, folks!

rocketjoe79 says

Glock that was modified for Full auto. Simple mechanical insert, apparently.

Then that is what the news should report. I did see a news story from Minnesota where a man at a gun range demonstrated that insert for the Glock, and one squeeze of the trigger emptied the clip full auto. Does not seem productive since the clip only hold 10 shots or so, and a modified longer clip would tend to melt the barrel. Shock effect, I guess.

clambo says

Another sneaky tax is on annuities, the “premium tax.”
California taxes it at 2.5% .
This is on top of income taxes.

I also understand that tax can follow you even if you leave California. California will tax the proportion of that annuity "earned" while employed in California. I presume you are referring to defined benefit type annuities, not just the lump sum purchase investment from insurance companies.

The annuity is a variable annuity, like a non-deductible IRA.

California can’t tax me because I have not taken anything out of it.

An interesting characteristic of a variable annuity is the government does not know you own it during the accumulation phase.

The government will only know that you’re taking money out and will tax the income when and if you spend the annuity. There are several ways to spend it.

That’s why you don’t receive a notice every year that was also sent to the government by the guys who administer your IRA, SEP-IRA, etc.

If you find a suitcase of cash somewhere, you can buy a variable annuity and nobody needs to know.
It’s a contract between you and the insurance company even though it contains sub accounts which are identical to mutual funds.

HeadSet says

rocketjoe79 says

Glock that was modified for Full auto. Simple mechanical insert, apparently.

Then that is what the news should report. I did see a news story from Minnesota where a man at a gun range demonstrated that insert for the Glock, and one squeeze of the trigger emptied the clip full auto. Does not seem productive since the clip only hold 10 shots or so, and a modified longer clip would tend to melt the barrel. Shock effect, I guess.

Full-auto fire from a pistol is idiotic. You simply can't control it and chance of getting anything beyond the first shot on target is essentially zero.

Full auto pistol is "spray and pray", hence the large number of innocents wounded and killed in this event.
I think doublestacked Glocks can hold up to 20 rounds? Reloads are trivial.

HeadSet says

I did see a news story from Minnesota where a man at a gun range demonstrated that insert for the Glock, and one squeeze of the trigger emptied the clip full auto.

What that man did was manufacturing a fully automatic weapon. Unless he was licensed for that (which is super hard and expensive since 1986) he painted a fat legal target on his back. You may get in trouble (a different kind of trouble, "possession") even if your semi-auto firearm has a defect which makes it go off twice for one squeeze of a trigger.

There are 1.6 million vacant houses/condos empty in Florida.

I'm splitting for Baja California Sur Mexico for a while, it's fun.

That’s pretty much spot on

good point.

mostly reader says

even if your semi-auto firearm has a defect which makes it go off twice for one squeeze of a trigger.

California Catch 22. If you get caught carrying a gun you are charged with a crime and then you are not allowed to carry guns anymore.

But criminals break laws.

Even the rural parts of Sacto County have issues. This Range Rover has 60 or so bullet holes:

http://www.galtheraldonline.com/news/man-injured-in-hood-franklin-road-shooting/article_9760ca8a-b5e1-11ec-b8fb-7f7fd0be1806.html?source=patrick.net

That link has some encouraging analysis. Seems like even though prices have skyrocketed, the credit of the buyers is much better than in the 2008 days. So, slowdown coming, but no crash.

Of course, so does investing in stock mutual funds.

The point is you must divert some of the wages they pay you to go down in the salt mines and invest in something.

Edit: stocks are better than real estate.
My Apple shares have split; can your 1 bedroom become a 7 bedroom by itself overnight?

"Nobody is irreplaceable" --Joseph Stalin


Russia is no exception.

RWSGFY says

"Nobody is irreplaceable" --Joseph Stalin


Russia is no exception.

right now they are replacing us Americans

Not for me. My last job transition resulted in a 13% raise. Actual profit I can spend every paycheck, not potential profit I have to sell to realize. My housing costs have actually gone down the last three years vs the previous three. How is that possible? Well, I'm a renter, so I decide how much I'm willing to spend.

clambo says

My Apple shares have split; can your 1 bedroom become a 7 bedroom by itself overnight?

It can if you rent to illegals....

Yeah, a garage can become a 2 bedroom addition, just put in bunkbeds.