patrick.net

WookieMan says

I think the inflation is going to stop here soon.

That would be nice, but even if it does, the genie is out of the bottle. Prices are not going back down, all that stimulus money is still out there and there are no way to soak that excess up without keeping prices high, plus with all the shutdowns demand is outpacing the ability to produce/deliver supply of goods (I’m referring to food, energy, raw materials, though it will keep construction costs high which will also put a floor under housing costs). Add to that the fact that it seems every business is STILL struggling to hire enough workers and so prices are likely going up as employers are forced to raise wages to attract employees and pass those costs on to the consumer.

PeopleUnited says

porkchopexpress says

All it takes is a job-loss recession. The market forces at play are much larger than the impact on housing. Raising interest rates will contract the entire economy, which will cause companies to lay people off. It is then that you'll see a spike in inventory and prices drop.

right now most places are just struggling to hire people they need.

True but I don’t care about right now. I care about six months from now.

WookieMan says

They'll blame Trump for the inflation and they stopped it. They'll say they stopped Covid. They protected you with masks and take ownership of the vaccine and how it saved millions of lives. Memories are short, they'll claim victory in Afghanistan. They'll blame Russia and say we need to be united against them in this moment with Ukraine. The script is as obvious as the sun rising. They're already doing it.

They don't have any credibility, but all that matters is that people BELIEVE they do. They can steal the election again with that. As long as people believe "goddamned, my fellow countrymen are F'ing stupid! I can't believe they voted for the Democrats again!" - that's all they need. They just need enough people to believe their neighbors are stupid.

richwicks says

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

WineHorror1 says

So, no downside to high inflation?

No, because as folks incomes get drained by the increasing prices of goods and services, as wages do not keep up with inflation, and as mortgage payments increase due to increasing interest rates, home prices will continue to rise.

This HAS to be sarcasm or my mind doesn't work anything like yours does.

I think we're headed for Mises "crack up boom" - and that just might result in revolution. Certainly a reordering of society of some sort and it might not be good at all.

My comment certainly was sarcasm. I once had a Realtor tell me that high interest rates cause inflation. I asked him why Volcker raised rates to almost 20% then.

WookieMan says

When Netflix loses as many subscribers as they did, it's not just because of SJW antics and people cancelling over that. It's because a $65 gas refuel is now $105.

Yes. I thought so too when I saw the WSJ article this morning that the company will be spending less money on employee/management perks and less money on new content.

This is how Inflation of important stuff like gasoline to drive to work, food at home (not dining out), and medical expense, becomes Deflationary for discretionary stuff like Netflix, dining out, and even (as we learned in 2009-2009) mortgages on McMansions.

Does anyone here not agree that the current high house prices are due to inflation?

This is a very different beast then 2008. Then house prices were high because everyone was leveraged out the ass investing in house flips. Remember all the hgtv shows? Now it’s just people needing a place to live, and it’s expensive because inventory is way too low because new construction costs a fortune due to the pandemic.

In 2008, all it took was for the bad assumptions about MBS that investors had made to be revealed and everyone was forced to sell in a panic. That’s not going to happen today, because as far as I’m aware lending standards are strong.

Fed is raising interest rates to stop inflation. Great. They are going to stop raising them once inflation is under 3% again. They will never allow deflation.

The only way house prices can go down is a disaster scenario with widespread massive layoffs. The fed is going to stop well before this, and even if we find ourself in this position, expect massive intervention (forbearance, mortgage purchases, etc).

pudil says

Does anyone here not agree that the current high house prices are due to inflation?

I do.

High prices is because it's Fed policy to drive up prices. This increases local tax revenue, expands the money supply, and allows people to borrow money against their home to have "the good life".

Raise interest rates to 10%, and the Fed will just use QE to cover the interest rate payments, but people who actually have to earn the money, will lose their home on an ARM.

pudil says

They will never allow deflation.

Maybe - but what hurts the most number of people? First have massive inflation - this kills the poor non borrowers, then have deflation, this kills borrowers. How are they going to ensure you'll own nothing and be happy?

richwicks says

First have massive inflation - this kills the poor non borrowers, then have deflation, this kills borrowers.

Didn't Thomas Jefferson warn about this?

PeopleUnited says

Add to that the fact that it seems every business is STILL struggling to hire enough workers

The population is millions larger than in the year 2000 but the workforce is millions smaller. Lots of useless consumers out there.

Possibly the plan behind Covid is to eliminate some of these people?


The percent was lower when women generally stayed at home to raise the Boomer's.

WineHorror1 says

Didn't Thomas Jefferson warn about this?

End the Fed!

WineHorror1 says

richwicks says

First have massive inflation - this kills the poor non borrowers, then have deflation, this kills borrowers.

Didn't Thomas Jefferson warn about this?

Our enemies are domestic.

pudil says

The only way house prices can go down is a disaster scenario with widespread massive layoffs.

What makes you think that Biden can't accomplish this?

pudil says

Does anyone here not agree that the current high house prices are due to inflation?

Extremely low interest rates and eviction / foreclosure moratoriums.

People seem to forget that for now expired foreclosure moratoriums are meaningless because people still have equity in their houses, which may or may not last (probably not). But what about all those deadbeats getting thrown out of their rentals? This has to put downward pressure on rents (not just apartments, some do rent SFH's, etc.) since this will free up a lot of real estate. When renting gets cheaper it will reduce pressure on owning as well (think if it as a cascading effect).

So regarding the house up the street that just went up for sale.

The house was nothing special. They boasted "remodeled kitchen" and all that jazz. They painted 20+ y/o builder cabinets and had multiple types of wood flooring through the place. Not worth double what they paid a few years back.

This morning was a circus, with realtors and showings and they jammed up the street.

After lunch. Completely dead. Have gone by 2 times since.

I'm wondering how large this pool of buyers actually is. It was like 30 families descended like a vulture on the place, and then bailed. We'll see if it sells.

I thought covid was a disaster. No? See, they can make anything "happen"" they want. We are living in an increasingly controlled environment.

There are over a billion people who, given the chance, would move to California for all the free stuff. So, supply of housing will never outstrip demand. Demand will slow when living here is worse than living in other parts of the world from which people are coming. That basically means the quality of life in California has to fall a very very very long way to make supply and demand balance. Open borders have consequences.

SunnyvaleCA says

That basically means the quality of life in California has to fall a very very very long way to make supply and demand balance.

It is doing so right now.

good luck with the housing crash theory .....inventory is historic low....

Bitcoin says

...inventory is historic low....

Not for long...

porkchopexpress says

PeopleUnited says

porkchopexpress says

All it takes is a job-loss recession. The market forces at play are much larger than the impact on housing. Raising interest rates will contract the entire economy, which will cause companies to lay people off. It is then that you'll see a spike in inventory and prices drop.

right now most places are just struggling to hire people they need.

True but I don’t care about right now. I care about six months from now.

It is a reasonable concern to monitor. I’m also monitoring for food shortages, fertilizer shortages and other things that may impact basic necessities. That seems to be a real concern, greater than concern for housing recession.

Booger says

Bitcoin says

...inventory is historic low....

Not for long...

yes, any minute now folks, any minute.
Active listings to increase by 500%. Dont blink!

WineHorror1 says

Fortwaynemobile says

dude we are in inflation thats close to 10% and probably higher. few years of this will make housing much more expensive

So, no downside to high inflation?

cost of constructio is up
cost of ownership up
everyone is more poor
…

Dollars versus assets like stonks, bonds, and possibly soon, US RE. Dollar winning! Good time to buy Japanese RE, if you are so inclinded.

Already seeing a week to week inventory jump here in the tri valley

Bitcoin says

Booger says

Bitcoin says

...inventory is historic low....

Not for long...

yes, any minute now folks, any minute.
Active listings to increase by 500%. Dont blink!

You act overly confident in everything until you're wrong like with the vaccine, and then you come crawling back apologizing how you were wrong. No one will take you seriously when you so easily dismiss or ridicule the opposing view and act like you know everything. Check your confirmation bias at the door, or you will never learn from your mistakes.

porkchopexpress says

You act overly confident in everything until you're wrong like with the vaccine, and then you come crawling back apologizing how you were wrong. No one will take you seriously when you so easily dismiss or ridicule the opposing view and act like you know everything.

@Bitcoin - this is a valid criticism of you and I'm not saying that to embarrass you, I'm saying it so you can engage in some self reflection on that topic. You were in a small part that pressure group to push people into taking an untested drug - what you experienced you should advertise. You will be of course censored. I've been censored. Censorship played a small part in your experience, you were convinced to take a drug that was dangerous because of censorship. You are obligated to fight it. It's your civic duty, will you engage in that? If you won't, you're complicit.

porkchopexpress says

or you will never learn from your mistakes.

I can say with high certainty that reading zerohedge is a giant waste of time.
In terms of the vaccine. I got the booster shot and are totally fine.....the first health issues I had were after the J&J shot. I will get the next booster when needed.
I travelled for 2.5 weeks in Europe lately and if I were not fully vaxxed travel would have been a headache.

Now, I am healthy as can be. And thinking that the J&J was a mistake isnt the same as crawling back apologizing. To bring vaccines in a conversation just because i point out ZH is a trash site shows a lot....
Pls dont waste your time on ZH.....start investing.

richwicks says

@Bitcoin - this is a valid criticism

In a few month I am getting my next booster. Every 9 month I believe in order to remain fully vaxxed. I travel a lot and so far I never had covid. Maybe I had it and had mild symptoms. This isnt a covid-conspiracy thread. This is about housing. Stick with the topic pls :) I personally dont care if someone is vaxxed, an anti vaxxer or gay. Your body, your choice.

Bitcoin says

richwicks says

@Bitcoin - this is a valid criticism

In a few month I am getting my next booster. Every 9 month I believe in order to remain fully vaxxed. I travel a lot and so far I never had covid. Maybe I had it and had mild symptoms. This isnt a covid-conspiracy thread.

It's just communication.

You are free to believe what you wish. I won't condemn you for it, but I have to admit, I have to chuckle a bit.

Perhaps the Morlocks and Eloi are inevitable.

Bitcoin says

Your body, your choice.

Submission invalidates that statement. With all the data you have been exposed to, you continue to submit. I find that remarkable however the most surprising thing I have discovered is how weak people are. I would have never known otherwise.

richwicks says

You will be of course censored.

Censored on my view of Patrick.net, because s/he's on "ignore". Too much trolling of BitCoin. I read enough already.

richwicks says

It's just communication.

There are plenty of threads on covid/vaccines to spew your conspiracy / Zerohedge theories. I dont care. Your body, your choice.
This a RE thread. Some are claiming there will be a RE crash, just like they claimed in 2016, 2017, 20xx - 2022. I would love lower RE prices to buy more rentals but i know without a significant increase in inventory you can have even a reduction in prices YoY.

Bitcoin says

richwicks says

@Bitcoin - this is a valid criticism

In a few month I am getting my next booster. Every 9 month I believe in order to remain fully vaxxed. I travel a lot and so far I never had covid. Maybe I had it and had mild symptoms. This isnt a covid-conspiracy thread. This is about housing. Stick with the topic pls :) I personally dont care if someone is vaxxed, an anti vaxxer or gay. Your body, your choice.

This is about your inability to process information objectively, which discounts the validity of your posts. I see a concerning pattern.

porkchopexpress says

which discounts the validity of your posts.

We have different opinions on investing and the outlook for the RE market. Time will tell. Good luck Bro!

porkchopexpress says

This is about your inability to process information objectively, which discounts the validity of your posts.

I have zero interest in any of the vaccines. That said, and me of all people on the site that disagree with Bitcoin, he's right. His body. At the end of the day it doesn't keep me awake at night. I disagree, but it's not worth the fight. I'm anti big pharma, not anti vax. But if getting the vaccine was about income, I can't blame anyone for getting it. That's why my wife got it against my wishes. I also cannot control her or bitcoin.

Where I'll agree porkchop is the condescending tone of most of bitcoins comments. But that's just style at some point. I don't let it bother me. He does have some decent comments. Everyone does here. I've only ignored bots and obvious bullshitters. I'd base it on the topic and filter yourself from viewing it. The Bitcoin threads annoy the hell out of me, but I can't stop it, I just don't go to them anymore. It's hard for guys, but we don't need to have an opinion on everything. And I'm not throwing shade at you. We sometimes are our own worst enemy for no reason.

WookieMan says

It's hard for guys, but we don't need to have an opinion on everything. And I'm not throwing shade at you. We sometimes are our own worst enemy for no reason.

Truer Words Were Never Spoken

WookieMan says

porkchopexpress says

This is about your inability to process information objectively, which discounts the validity of your posts.

I have zero interest in any of the vaccines. That said, and me of all people on the site that disagree with Bitcoin, he's right. His body. At the end of the day it doesn't keep me awake at night. I disagree, but it's not worth the fight. I'm anti big pharma, not anti vax. But if getting the vaccine was about income, I can't blame anyone for getting it. That's why my wife got it against my wishes. I also cannot control her or bitcoin.

Where I'll agree porkchop is the condescending tone of most of bitcoins comments. But that's just style at some point. I don't let it bother me. He does have some decent comments. Everyone does here. I've only ignored bots and obvious bullshitters. I'd base it on the topic and filter yourself from viewing it. The Bitcoin...

I'm not disagreeing with anyone's freedom to choose, I'm just using Bitcoin's vaccine experience as an example. He went off on everyone and anyone who said not to get it or that it could be harmful, and then he got injured and profusely apologized as a result. I applaud him for admitting it because many would not.

My point is his style of just dismissing anything that disagrees with his opinion without looking at it objectively. He does so in an arrogant fashion as if he knows it all, and that's obviously off-putting but is also very telling given he had the exact same attitude about the vaccine before he got injured. There is "style" and then there is confirmation bias, lack of objective analysis and open-mindedness.

It depends on demand and whether buyers (who get mortgages or rent homes) can reasonably afford the housing.

That means monthly housing costs are no more than 38% of household monthly income, and costs mean mortgage, property tax, property insurance, and HOA fee.

This article came out recently in the Florida panhandle. Its the local media stating that Florida panhandle real estate is in demand.

https://www.wjhg.com/2022/04/21/out-of-towners-pricing-out-local-housing/?source=patrick.net

.

SunnyvaleCA says

There are over a billion people who, given the chance, would move to California for all the free stuff. So, supply of housing will never outstrip demand. Demand will slow when living here is worse than living in other parts of the world from which people are coming. That basically means the quality of life in California has to fall a very very very long way to make supply and demand balance. Open borders have consequences.

Something has to give. It can't be sustained. Even 2nd generation Californians and Democrat voters will demand change because the quality of life sucks that much in California, and would be no better than Tijuana or Ciudad Juarez. I noticed southern Texas has seen a large percentage of Hispanics and Latinos who are voting Republican. I know in Florida a lot more from South America are voting Republican.

Why real estate is never too expensive.

ad says

SunnyvaleCA says

There are over a billion people who, given the chance, would move to California for all the free stuff. So, supply of housing will never outstrip demand. Demand will slow when living here is worse than living in other parts of the world from which people are coming. That basically means the quality of life in California has to fall a very very very long way to make supply and demand balance. Open borders have consequences.

Something has to give. It can't be sustained. E

I think the billion he's referring to are mostly in China and India. The rich kids are the ones who buy their way here with foreign student visa-H1 route or other pathways accessible to the rich families over there. To them, the Bay Area is as uncongested as a Wide Open Prairie. And as expensive as it is for the rest of us, what they get for what they pay, at Bargain Prices.