3
0

Can we have a non-hate mail vs fanboy thread on trading Bitcoin?


 invite response                
2022 Mar 12, 4:27pm   25,432 views  189 comments

by Rin   ➕follow (13)   💰tip   ignore  

Whenever this topic comes up, it turns into political theater. Why can't we talk about a market (whether it's real or imagined stardust) w/o it turning into a cage match?

Let me make a comparison to a more mature market.

The following is a multi-year chart of the EUR vs USD, with the 50 bar exponential moving average (EMA) as the indicator on the chart. As anyone can observe, when the spot price is above the 50 EMA, there are more bullish trading opportunities (in green) than below it. And when it's below the 50 EMA, bearish events (in red) tend to be more common.







Now, contrast the above with that of BITCOIN vs USD. Whenever the 50 EMA is tested, the bearish opportunities are sparse and really don't even given bonafide short sellers much time to maneuver w/o a near term rally taking 'em out.



All and all, that's a bullish market with a high amount of sentiment on the upside. So until we see a general overall market meltdown, I'm not calling curtains on the cryptos.

« First        Comments 138 - 177 of 189       Last »     Search these comments

138   Cash   2022 Apr 5, 5:24am  

DooDahMan says
See comment #2 on this: https://patrick.net/post/1344461/2022-04-05-profits-soar-as-u-s-corporations-have-b

A recent report has also shown that Bitcoin mining revenue rose 206% in 2021 despite many countries cracking down on crypto mining and China even banning it. The US has become the nation with the most Bitcoin miners.

Awesome share...
You can lead a horse to____
139   Cash   2022 Apr 5, 5:31am  

2022 Global State of Crypt
https://www.gemini.com/state-of-crypto?source=patrick.net
Download the report it's free and full of stats and graphs..
140   Cash   2022 Apr 5, 7:52am  

WATCH: Dr. Malone Says He Will Expose 4,000 World Economic Forum Names Via Blockchain
https://welovetrump.com/2022/04/04/watch-dr-malone-says-he-will-expose-4000-world-economic-forum-names-via-blockchain/?source=patrick.net
In a recent speech, given in front of a crowd of freedom truckers, Dr. Malone announced that he has a spreadsheet of 4,000 individuals
connected to the World Economic Forum.
141   Cash   2022 Apr 6, 6:30am  

143   Rin   2022 Apr 6, 10:36am  

Cash says


To be fair, at around that time, behemoths like Global Crossing, WorldCom, Lucent Technologies, etc, went into the toilet. The fact of the matter was the hi-speed access was too expensive as T3 lines were only affordable for big corporations.

Sure, some of today's mainstays have survived and even prospered, but do you want to be this person who bought Cisco at its peak ...

https://patrick.net/post/1341757?40#comment-1794348


uploads/2021/10/29443_0080_csco1
144   Ceffer   2022 Apr 6, 10:47am  

Is the bitcoin blithe tulip statute of limitations up yet so that hate boys can show up again?
145   Cash   2022 Apr 11, 7:35am  

I love a well planned scheme coming together, getting me some more coins to stash .
https://patrick.net/post/1344030?120#comment-1831934
146   Cash   2022 Apr 11, 9:41am  

I'm starting my test buys at BTC 39k_ish
147   Cash   2022 Apr 13, 3:29am  

148   Cash   2022 Apr 13, 5:49am  

149   Bitcoin   2022 Apr 23, 11:17am  

"Oscar-Nominated Ridley Scott To Produce Ethereum Movie 'The Infinite Machine'"

https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/22/04/26755761/oscar-nominated-ridley-scott-to-produce-ethereum-movie-the-infinite-machine?source=patrick.net

Pretty cool. I am investor in Ethereum coins. My avg cost is about 700 and I sold some holdings between 3500-4000.
I believe Ethereum can hit 20,000 USD within the next few years.
150   Bitcoin   2022 Apr 26, 11:08am  

DooDahMan says
Fidelity will reportedly start offering investors to add Bitcoin to their retirement 401(k) accounts later in 2022.


Freaking awesome news!! Importance piece to the mass adoption narrative.
151   Patrick   2022 Apr 28, 10:13pm  

https://entrepreneurshandbook.co/the-doom-loop-161a42bbcd50?source=patrick.net


Why do the acolytes of Lord Satoshi preach the gospel with such passion? Because we know that in order to create circular self-sustaining pockets of economic action that use Bitcoin as the sole payment method, we must infect as many minds as possible with our memetic narrative.

This is especially important because of how successful Bitcoin has been from a price appreciation standpoint. The meteoric rise of Bitcoin from nothing to a $1 trillion dollar plus asset in the span of a decade created the HODL culture. HODLers will not sell their Bitcoin at any price. And these folks, myself included, spend fiat and save Bitcoin. Fiat depreciates in real terms year after year, while Bitcoin is the best performing asset EVER created.

However, Bitcoin– unlike gold– must be used to have value. Miners spend energy to maintain the Bitcoin network. To cover their costs, miners must receive payment in a token that is socially valuable. Bitcoin therefore must move, and movement between parties is the antithesis of HODL culture. HODL culture taken to its f(x): maxima would result in the complete destruction of Bitcoin. Once all bitcoin has been minted and miners no longer receive sufficient income from network rewards in the form of newly minted Bitcoin, they must rely on transaction fees instead. If no Bitcoin changes hands because we all sit smugly clutching our USB sticks, then there will be no hashpower supporting the network. No network … no value.

Therefore, as a loyal subject of Lord Satoshi, I must do my part to evangelise the good word, and hopefully they can influence their domestic policy makers to create a fertile environment that promotes a farm-to-table Bitcoin economy.
152   PeopleUnited   2022 Apr 29, 5:53am  

Patrick says
However, Bitcoin– unlike gold– must be used to have value


Sounds like a pump and dump scheme,
153   Bitcoin   2022 Apr 29, 8:39am  

PeopleUnited says
Patrick says
However, Bitcoin– unlike gold– must be used to have value


Sounds like a pump and dump scheme,


Then stocks and cash would be a pump and dump scheme too.

The Bitcoin haters never really come up with a reason why Bitcoin is bad. They are simple unwilling to learn technology. Hence most of the Bitcoin haters still use landlines and flip phones.
154   PeopleUnited   2022 Apr 29, 9:07am  

Bitcoin says
a reason why Bitcoin is bad


Transaction speed is slow.
155   Bitcoin   2022 Apr 29, 9:20am  

PeopleUnited says
Bitcoin says
a reason why Bitcoin is bad


Transaction speed is slow.


Its digital gold. Why do you need the transaction to be fast? You miss the intention. Maybe this chart helps:


156   Bitcoin   2022 Apr 29, 9:21am  

notice how the chart doesnt have anything on transaction speed? cause it doesnt matter. I bought Bitcoin for 15k.....now its worth close to 40k.....i never transacted it once except when I moved it from the exchange to the cold storage (hardware wallet).
157   mell   2022 Apr 29, 10:24am  

Bitcoin says
notice how the chart doesnt have anything on transaction speed? cause it doesnt matter. I bought Bitcoin for 15k.....now its worth close to 40k.....i never transacted it once except when I moved it from the exchange to the cold storage (hardware wallet).


Why don't you take some gains though? I say that to people who are sitting on large stock gains as well. Once you make a double sell 25% at the minimum, of course these numbers can be adapted to individual strategies but at least for stocks buy and hold is done and won't see return. I expect similar for bitcorn
158   Bitcoin   2022 Apr 29, 11:48am  

mell says
but at least for stocks buy and hold is done and won't see return. I expect similar for bitcorn


Wait, you are saying for stocks, buying and holding long term is not a strategy anymore?
My strategy for stocks is dollar cost avg. basically buy into the dumps/falling knife.....but have a long term outlook, 2+ years
159   PeopleUnited   2022 Apr 29, 2:57pm  

Patrick says
However, Bitcoin– unlike gold– must be used to have value.
Bitcoin says
Its digital gold. Why do you need the transaction to be fast?


You miss the criticism because you are a fanboy, transactions Are necessary per the article Patrick linked. It is just one of many problems with “digital gold”.

If people can’t make quick transactions in the digital age, then it is not the digital age. It is the Stone Age,
160   mell   2022 Apr 29, 8:50pm  

Bitcoin says

mell says
but at least for stocks buy and hold is done and won't see return. I expect similar for bitcorn


Wait, you are saying for stocks, buying and holding long term is not a strategy anymore?
My strategy for stocks is dollar cost avg. basically buy into the dumps/falling knife.....but have a long term outlook, 2+ years


Yes. You can buy into dips but only if you sell into runs to create "freeriding" shares to hold. You can't just indiscriminately buy dips, some stocks may never recover to previous levels or even go bk or get bought out in distress for pennies on the dollar. Look at tech and what a wreck it is. Big tech is done for many years. Buy and hold is not a good strategy, it was from 2009-2019 or maybe 2021 due to the fed money bazooka, but it's over, the fed is unwinding rather aggressively to combat inflation. For the next few years buy select stocks only and sell into rallies to create freerides. I doubt the market will be any better in 2+ years.
161   Bitcoin   2022 Apr 30, 6:49am  

mell says
. Big tech is done for many years. Buy and hold is not a good strategy,


get your point. What about index funds? you are specifically talking about individual stocks but DCA, buy and hold for index funds. do you think that strategy wont work either?
162   Bitcoin   2022 Apr 30, 7:11am  

PeopleUnited says
If people can’t make quick transactions in the digital age, then it is not the digital age. It is the Stone Age,


Could not disagree more. That mindset would lead to zero innovation.

You are like:
If you create a flip phone that doesnt allow you to take pictures and send email, its the stone age. So dont start and innovate
If your car doesnt drive by itself its the stone age. so dont start building a car and innovate.
If your tv wont allow you to connect to the internet its the stone age, dont start developing tv's.

Bitcoin was the first of its kind. it started a revolution. Now fortune 500 companies buy and hold Bitcoin. Not only that. Country after country adopts bitcoin as legal tender
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/28/central-african-republic-adopts-bitcoin-as-legal-tender.html?source=patrick.net

not only that. Now you can buy bitcoin and hold it in your retirement accounts. That means main stream adoption. We already have Bitcoin ETFs.

Bitcoin is not meant to buy a coffee with it. some people sit on millions of bitcoin holdings. If they sell, they might buy multifamily complexes or lambos with it.
The transaction speed on Bitcoin is never mentioned because nobody cares. Transaction speed on layer 3 cryptos is signficantly faster. Blockchain tech is evolving day by day.

Bitcoin was layer one
Ethereum and similar cryptos were layer two
Now we have layer 3

maybe it takes layer 10 to have a crypto that could be used for buying a coffee. Who knows and who cares. Being part of this revolution is exciting and freaking profitable. I love the times we live in.

haters will laways make up stuff to why tech shouldnt be adopted. Remember when people said bad things about the internet or microwave? Or smart phones?
163   mell   2022 Apr 30, 7:12am  

Bitcoin says

mell says
. Big tech is done for many years. Buy and hold is not a good strategy,


get your point. What about index funds? you are specifically talking about individual stocks but DCA, buy and hold for index funds. do you think that strategy wont work either?


Not an expert on index funds but I would assume anything Dow/defensive would work for a 2+ years strategy, i.e. energy, agriculture, defense, healthcare, precious metals. You can also buy aggressive growth index funds when nasdaq/tech is beaten down but that is probably a 5+ years strategy. Market will def stay volatile with lots of short term opportunities on both sides.
164   SoTex   2022 Apr 30, 10:46am  

PeopleUnited says
Bitcoin says
a reason why Bitcoin is bad


Transaction speed is slow.


Clearly you need to go back and read the bitcoin is for stupids thread. All of it. Why haven't you done so yet?

Scalable, Instant Bitcoin/Blockchain Transactions:

https://lightning.network/?source=patrick.net

This is only layer-2.
165   SoTex   2022 Apr 30, 10:48am  

PeopleUnited says
transactions Are necessary per the article Patrick linked.


Which is a FUD article. Adoption is happening (still) at a far rapid pace than the internet was. Once a billion people are reached (and probably well before) there will always be enough transactions to create the churn necessary to keep enough miners happy to secure the network. It does not take that much. We can drop it by 75% already and there will be no problems.
166   SoTex   2022 Apr 30, 10:51am  

mell says
Why don't you take some gains though? I say that to people who are sitting on large stock gains as well. Once you make a double sell 25% at the minimum, of course these numbers can be adapted to individual strategies but at least for stocks buy and hold is done and won't see return. I expect similar for bitcorn


Bitcorn has become highly correlated with tech stocks and/or the strength of the dollar and dollar flow. Hopefully it decouples again although it may have always been correlated with quant easing etc., or at least leveraged by it.

I suspect it will still go down quite a bit this year(s) making for a great re-entry point eventually.
167   Cash   2022 Apr 30, 11:25am  

Its all about USD demand Cash is king above nearly all things investment wise.
Cash says
https://patrick.net/post/1344030?120#comment-1831934



See:
168   Cash   2022 Apr 30, 11:26am  

Just to be clear lots better deals for your investment pleasures on their way
169   PeopleUnited   2022 Apr 30, 11:28am  

FJB says
Clearly you need to go back and read the bitcoin is for stupids thread.
Bitcoin says
haters will laways make up stuff
Bitcoin says
You are like:
If you create a flip phone that doesnt allow you to take pictures and send email, its the stone age. So dont start and innovate
If your car doesnt drive by itself its the stone age. so dont start building a car and innovate.
If your tv wont allow you to connect to the internet its the stone age, dont start developing tv's.


As hominem and straw man. But that you need to ask yourself is this. Why can’t you accept that bitcorn is not for everyone and some people (perhaps the majority) think it is a scam?
170   SoTex   2022 Apr 30, 11:37am  

PeopleUnited says
Why can’t you accept that bitcorn is not for everyone and some people (perhaps the majority) think it is a scam?


Why can't you accept that there is a bitcoin is for stupids thread and that you're posting in the wrong thread. This thread was setup specifically for posts other than yours yet you still continue do it.

What the hell is wrong with you?
171   Cash   2022 Apr 30, 11:43am  

Do you know what this indicates? Risk in JPY commodity paper shorts being removed
and perhaps commodities Super Cycle on it's way?
C&H or Inverted H&S take your pick.

172   PeopleUnited   2022 Apr 30, 12:12pm  




Getting back to the topic of trading, bear flag possible here.
173   SoTex   2022 Apr 30, 12:14pm  

Ya think! Of course it is. A big giant one at that.
174   SoTex   2022 Apr 30, 12:15pm  

FJB says
FJB says


Whelp I was wrong. It's still a hellava bear flag though.
175   Rin   2022 Apr 30, 1:15pm  

Ok, this was the correlation I was looking for, in terms of weekly candlesticks. Realize, the longer the time frame, the better the predictive ability.

1) The Russell finally closes a week outside of the long running price box


2) The EURO is testing a decade long low.



3) The Pound Sterling is just about to enter that same price box of the decade's low.




So the Bitcoin trade is over. I'm selling XBTF at 39 with a take profit of $4 per share, totaling 1200 shares. or $4.8K.

This will be re-visited at a latter time when the market structure is in a better place.
176   PeopleUnited   2022 Apr 30, 2:20pm  

Congrats Rin. What are you buying now?
177   Rin   2022 Apr 30, 3:31pm  

PeopleUnited says
Congrats Rin. What are you buying now?


I think at this time, it's all defensive plays.

One which looks promising is to buy shares of Carl Icahn Enterprises, IEP, which gets one a 15+% dividend check per year. In other words, with zero work, 1000 shares at $52 per share renders $8 per share or $8000 for any given year. And the price range is pretty stagnant.

Now, given the fact that Icahn could die or that one of his deals completely collapses (& he's forced to cut the dividend, along with the stock sliding downward), it's not a bad idea to insure against this by ordering leap put options at a strike price circa $45 where the put option price is close to a single dividend check loss for the option.

Then, if the stock goes to hell, the cap losses are offset by the option. So thus, you're in effect, paying one business quarter's dividend check (give or take) for insurance and get to bank the difference, some 11% per annum, with nearly zero risk of losing your capital.

Of course they could go out of business but I think the stock will tank first, so the exit is in place.

« First        Comments 138 - 177 of 189       Last »     Search these comments

Please register to comment:

api   best comments   contact   latest images   memes   one year ago   random   suggestions   gaiste