patrick.net

Myth 4: Russian domestic consumption and consumer health remain strong.

Some of the sectors most dependent on international supply chains have been hit with debilitating inflation around 40-60 percent—on extremely low sales volumes. For example, foreign car sales in Russia fell by an average of 95 percent across major car companies, with sales ground to a complete halt.

Amid supply shortages, soaring prices, and fading consumer sentiment, it is hardly surprising that Russian Purchasing Managers’ Index readings—which capture how purchasing managers are viewing the economy—have plunged, particularly for new orders, alongside plunges in consumer spending and retail sales data by around 20 percent year-over-year. Other readings of high-frequency data such as e-commerce sales within Yandex and same-store traffic at retail sites across Moscow reinforce steep declines in consumer spending and sales, no matter what the Kremlin says.

Myth 5: Global businesses have not really pulled out of Russia, and business, capital, and talent flight from Russia are overstated.

Global businesses represent around 12 percent of Russia’s workforce (5 million workers), and, as a result of the business retreat, over 1,000 companies representing around 40 percent of Russia’s GDP have curtailed operations in the country, reversing three decades’ worth of foreign investment and buttressing unprecedented simultaneous capital and talent flight in a mass exodus of 500,000 individuals, many of whom are exactly the highly educated, technically skilled workers Russia cannot afford to lose. Even the mayor of Moscow has acknowledged an expected massive loss of jobs as businesses go through the process of fully exiting*.

*) Looks like the mayor of Moscow is less of a stupid cunt than Putler. A low hurdle to clear thought.

Myth 6: Putin is running a budget surplus thanks to high energy prices.

Russia is actually on pace to run a budget deficit this year equivalent to 2 percent of GDP, according to its own finance minister—one of the only times the budget has been in deficit in years, despite high energy prices—thanks to Putin’s unsustainable spending spree; on top of dramatic increases in military spending, Putin is resorting to patently unsustainable, dramatic fiscal and monetary intervention, including a laundry list of Kremlin pet projects, all of which have contributed to the money supply nearly doubling in Russia since the invasion began. Putin’s reckless spending is clearly putting Kremlin finances under strain*.

Myth 7: Putin has hundreds of billions of dollars in rainy day funds, so the Kremlin’s finances are unlikely to be strained anytime soon.

The most obvious challenge facing Putin’s rainy day funds is the fact that of his around $600 billion in foreign exchange reserves, accumulated from years’ worth of oil and gas revenues, $300 billion is frozen and out of reach with allied countries across the United States, Europe, and Japan restricting access. There have been some calls to seize this $300 billion to finance the reconstruction of Ukraine.

Putin’s remaining foreign exchange reserves are decreasing at an alarming rate, by around $75 billion since the start of the war. Critics point out that official foreign exchange reserves of the central bank technically can only decrease due to international sanctions placed on the central bank, and they suggest that nonsanctioned financial institutions such as Gazprombank could still accumulate such reserves in place of the central bank. While this may be technically true, there is simultaneously no evidence to suggest that Gazprombank is actually accumulating any reserves given sizable strain on its own loan book.

Furthermore, although the finance ministry had planned to reinstate a long-standing Russian budgetary rule that surplus revenue from oil and gas sales should be channeled into the sovereign wealth fund, Putin axed this proposal as well as accompanying guidelines directing how and where the National Wealth Fund can be spent—as Finance Minister Anton Siluanov floated the idea of withdrawing funds from the National Wealth Fund equivalent to a third of the entire fund to pay for this deficit this year. If Russia is running a budget deficit requiring the drawdown of a third of its sovereign wealth fund when oil and gas revenues are still relatively strong, all signs indicate a Kremlin that may be running out of money much faster than conventionally appreciated.

RWSGFY says

Iranian civil aviation is one of the most unsafe in the world. The main problem is just the lack of spare parts for aircraft and a huge number of counterfeit or heavily worn imported components and parts of extremely low quality. Due to technical problems, 50 percent of the existing 386 Iranian aircraft is on the ground. The newest Iranian Airbus A-330 aircraft were produced in 1992.

How would YOU know if any of this is true?

Myth 8: The ruble is the world’s strongest-performing currency this year.

One of Putin’s favorite propaganda talking points, the appreciation of the ruble is an artificial reflection of unprecedented, draconian capital control—which rank among the most restrictive of any in the world. The restrictions make it effectively impossible for any Russian to legally purchase dollars or even access a majority of their dollar deposits, while artificially inflating demand through forced purchases by major exporters—all of which remain largely in place today.

The official exchange rate is misleading, anyhow, as the ruble is, unsurprisingly, trading at dramatically diminished volumes compared to before the invasion on low liquidity. By many reports, much of this erstwhile trading has migrated to unofficial ruble black markets*. Even the Bank of Russia has admitted that the exchange rate is a reflection more of government policies and a blunt expression of the country’s trade balance rather than freely tradeable liquid foreign exchange markets.

*) It is actually a criminal offense now to trade foreign currencies outside of an official exchange office. RUSSIA IS SOOOOOO FREEEE!!!!

Myth 9: The implementation of sanctions and business retreats are now largely done, and no more economic pressure is needed.

Russia’s economy has been severely damaged, but the business retreats and sanctions applied against Russia are incomplete. Even with the deterioration in Russia’s exports positioning, it continues to draw too much oil and gas revenue from the sanctions carveout, which sustains Putin’s extravagant domestic spending and obfuscates structural economic weaknesses. The Kyiv School of Economics and Yermak-McFaul International Working Group have led the way in proposing additional sanctions measures across individual sanctions, energy sanctions, and financial sanctions, led by former U.S. Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul and the experts Tymofiy Mylovanov, Nataliia Shapoval, and Andriy Boytsun. Looking ahead, there is no path out of economic oblivion for Russia as long as the allied countries remain unified in maintaining and increasing sanctions pressure against Russia.

Defeatist headlines arguing that Russia’s economy has bounced back are simply not factua l—the facts are that, by any metric and on any level, the Russian economy is reeling, and now is not the time to step on the brakes.

richwicks says

RWSGFY says

Iranian civil aviation is one of the most unsafe in the world. The main problem is just the lack of spare parts for aircraft and a huge number of counterfeit or heavily worn imported components and parts of extremely low quality. Due to technical problems, 50 percent of the existing 386 Iranian aircraft is on the ground. The newest Iranian Airbus A-330 aircraft were produced in 1992.

How would YOU know if any of this is true?

Iran has been under fucking sanctions for 40 fucking years, HELLO!!!! That includes ban on selling spare parts for aircraft. What's happening in YOUR world?

Hugh_Mongous says

One of Putin’s favorite propaganda talking points, the appreciation of the ruble is an artificial reflection of unprecedented, draconian capital control—which rank among the most restrictive of any in the world. The restrictions make it effectively impossible for any Russian to legally purchase dollars or even access a majority of their dollar deposits, while artificially inflating demand through forced purchases by major exporters—all of which remain largely in place today.

Are you an American?

Open up a foreign bank account.

The US implemented this shit over a decade ago. Seriously, try to open any account outside of the United States.

Hugh_Mongous says

Iran has been under fucking sanctions for 40 fucking years,

Sanctions are a joke. All it does it prevent medicine and supplies from getting to people, it doesn't do anything to the government.

How do you think North Korea managed to develop a nuclear weapon with all those sanctions?

All sanctions do is kill civilians, and that's what they're intended to do. It's just something to put pressure on the public to change their government forcibly - it's basically a soft form of terrorism and I don't know of any instance that it worked.

"Foreign Policy magazine and ForeignPolicy.com are published by The FP Group,[2] a division of Graham Holdings Company (formerly The Washington Post Company). The FP Group also produces FP Events, Foreign Policy's events division, launched in 2012."
"Foreign Policy endorsed Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton in the 2016 US presidential election. This was the first time in its 50-year history the magazine endorsed a candidate.[9]"

Yeah, Washington Post et alia. That wouldn't be MSM propaganda in scholarly clothes, would it? May as well just watch CNN, more pictures and less text.

Ceffer says

"Foreign Policy magazine and ForeignPolicy.com are published by The FP Group,[2] a division of Graham Holdings Company (formerly The Washington Post Company). The FP Group also produces FP Events, Foreign Policy's events division, launched in 2012."
"Foreign Policy endorsed Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton in the 2016 US presidential election. This was the first time in its 50-year history the magazine endorsed a candidate.[9]"

Yeah, Washington Post et alia. That wouldn't be MSM propaganda in scholarly clothes, would it? HarvardFucks my ass. May as well just watch CNN.

When you can't argue on merit - attack the source. Is Yale "Washington Post et alia" too? Refute the points if you can. Or STFU if you can't.

richwicks says

Sanctions are a joke.

Is this why Iran is so keen on them being lifted?

richwicks says

How do you think North Korea managed to develop a nuclear weapon with all those sanctions?

Russia gave it to them, duh. They still leave shit lives and constantly begging for food.

Yale? You mean Skull and Bonesville, the alma mater of Bill and IHLlary's law school and Shrubbie Bush et alia? Globalist Masonic agitprop all the way.

You relied on a source. It is reasonable practice to examine the source.

Ceffer says

Yale? You mean Skull and Bonesville, the alma mater of Bill and IHLlary's law school and Shrubbie Bush et alia? Globalist Masonic agitprop all the way.

So you can't refute a single point, right? Pick at least one of 9 and give it a stab.

Ceffer says

You relied on a source. It is reasonable practice to examine the source.

The source lists their sources. If you are into source examination business don't be lazy - keep examining. Start with Russian Ministry of Finance. When they say they are on path to a budged deficit, are they being "skull and bones homo lying Yale shits" too?

https://t.me/asbmil/3915

German Energy Minister Robert Habeck said verbatim: "Germany has built a business model that is heavily dependent on cheap Russian gas and thus on a president who violates international law, for whom liberal democracies and their values are declared enemies." "This model has failed and it will not return. We must rebuild at lightning speed."

Ceffer says

https://t.me/asbmil/3915

Oh, so Biden's line about "Putin's inflation" is now true? LOL

Hugh_Mongous says

Ceffer says

You relied on a source. It is reasonable practice to examine the source.

The source lists their sources. If you are into source examination business don't be lazy - keep examining. Start with Russian Ministry of Finance. When they say they are on path to a budged deficit, are they being "skull and bones homo lying Yale shits" too?

Pwnd.

Hugh_Mongous says

richwicks says

How do you think North Korea managed to develop a nuclear weapon with all those sanctions?

Russia gave it to them, duh. They still leave shit lives and constantly begging for food.

No, if Russia gave them nuclear weapons North Korea's nuclear weapons would actually work. Their first test was smaller than Trinity in released energy.

I'm trying to indicate to you how simple it is to make a nuclear weapon today.

25 years ago, it was literally illegal for me to export a playstation 2 to, say, Iran, because it could literally be used as a super computer. I can emulate the machine now on a $75 raspberry pi.

richwicks says

No, if Russia gave them nuclear weapons North Korea's nuclear weapons would actually work.

And they do.

Russian blogger (google-translated):

According to Academician Aganbegyan, which he voiced in an interview with Business Online, about a third of the country's citizens by the end of this year will move into the category of beggars - that is, people whose incomes are below the subsistence level. Which in Russia, we will speak frankly, is in itself a beggarly one - a little more than 13 thousand rubles a month.

This literally means the end of even that middle class, which with difficulty, but existed in the country, and more in spite of than thanks to the policy of the authorities. A third of the population in extreme poverty means that at least half of the population is poor or marginally poor. In fact, in this case, no more than 10-15 percent of the population can be considered relatively prosperous, and only 5 - prosperous. For the formation of a sustainable society oriented towards development, such a division is categorically unsuitable. Approximately such social stratification is observed in countries that are in a chronic catastrophe - like the same Venezuela.

The country's GDP will decrease by at least 10 percent by the end of the year, on top of the fall that occurred during the years of the "pandemic", which in fact means the disappearance of half of the economic recovery since the collapse of the USSR. In general, the Russian economy has grown over the past thirty years less than most of the developing countries in the world, with the exception of completely insolvent ones. Aganbegyan calls the reason for the export of capital abroad - more than a trillion dollars over the past 20 years, and the monstrous property inequality, which is one of the most egregious in the world.

I don't see anything surprising in Aganbegyan's model. I have repeatedly referred to the theory of Manur Olson, who, in collaboration with Martin McGuire, identified two types of states, designating them as "sedentary" and "roaming" bandits.

Russia in such a classification is a “wandering bandit”, the goal of the ruling caste is to extract maximum profit from the conquered territory, after which the nobility burdened with booty leaves the area that has been eaten through, moving to a new place.

In this paradigm, the evolution of the Russian nobility took place, moving their families following the capital exported to the West, acquiring property there, acquiring citizenship of the countries of their future residence. At the same time, in Russia itself, the state is viewed as a “wandering bandit” solely as an apparatus of violence designed to maximize the collection of tribute from the conquered territory. No other institutionalization is envisaged in such a paradigm.

It is logical that in the end the territory turns into a scorched clearing with a chronically impoverished population, and the country itself does not have any development resource - it has already changed jurisdiction.

However, there was a systemic failure - the Russian "elite" suddenly found itself robbed. And the goods exported to the West are now confiscated and confiscated by host countries, and the Russian nobility itself, including offspring, becomes persona non grata. However, nothing can be corrected: firstly, the territory of tribute collection has really been robbed to the skin, and secondly, the ruling nomenklatura is psychologically incapable of restructuring its modus operandi, and continues to rob what has already been robbed. We are seeing the result today.

https://el-murid.livejournal.com/5206701.html

Eric Holder says

richwicks says

No, if Russia gave them nuclear weapons North Korea's nuclear weapons would actually work.

And they do.

Look over the history of their weapons tests:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_North_Korea

They have 1, POSSIBLY 2 tests that were larger than Trinity. Trinity can do some serious damage, but it's a firecracker compared to a modern nuclear weapon of today. Trinity would do severe damage to NYC, but there would be plenty of survivors - a modern nuclear weapon would vaporize the entire city.

richwicks says

Eric Holder says

richwicks says

No, if Russia gave them nuclear weapons North Korea's nuclear weapons would actually work.

And they do.

Look over the history of their weapons tests:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_North_Korea

Plenty of successful ones. What, 25kt is not good enough for you?

Eric Holder says

Plenty of successful ones. What, 25kt is not good enough for you?

Like I said, it's a firecracker.

Hiroshima is small. You can't really do much with 25kt.

ISTANBUL—The Biden administration warned Turkish businesses against working with sanctioned Russian institutions and individuals, intensifying U.S. pressure on a NATO ally that has maintained a strong relationship with Russia during its invasion of Ukraine.
...
The written warnings are an escalation of U.S. efforts to get Turkish institutions to comply with the international sanctions imposed on Russia following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February.

https://youtu.be/5ilXH57oq4I

Russian blogger (google-translated):

A small cold shower for lovers of cheap Russian oil hit one of the fairly large Indian refineries yesterday. Leading traders and banks have cut ties with India's Nayara Energy (49% owned by Rosneft) over ties to Russia.

The logic of the decision is simple: either you buy Russian oil, or you work with the rest of the world. The collective farm is a voluntary business, and this is your decision, we respect it. But in this case, live with your decision on your own, without us.

In fact, these are secondary sanctions - that is, restrictions that are imposed on those who ignore the primary sanctions.

The meaning of the sanctions against Nayara Energy is not even to force it to reconsider its decision, but to warn everyone else - and the rest, willy-nilly, will be forced to think about the topic: do we need it?

By the way, fears of secondary sanctions in many ways hinder the ardent desire of Chinese and Indian companies to take advantage of Russia's plight and grab a lot and on the cheap.

While they grab, but they do it without fanaticism and looking over the shoulder. After such a clear warning, they will start to look over their shoulder more often. If one or two more such warnings follow, then most likely the majority will understand that the benefit in this case is greatly exaggerated.

https://el-murid.livejournal.com/5212128.html

So much for "we'll divert and sell gas to Chyna":

Russia is burning off large amounts of natural gas

Experts say that the gas would previously have been exported to Germany.

They say the plant, which is near the border with Finland, is burning an estimated $10m (£8.4m) worth of gas every day.

The analysis by Rystad Energy indicates that around 4.34 million cubic metres of gas are being burned by the flare every day.

It's coming from a new liquified natural gas (LNG) plant at Portovaya, north-west of St Petersburg. The first signs that something was awry came from Finnish citizens over the nearby border who spotted a large flame on the horizon earlier this summer.

Portovaya is located close to a compressor station at the start of the Nordstream 1 pipeline which carries gas under the sea to Germany.

Supplies through the pipeline has been curtailed since mid-July, with the Russians blaming technical issues for the restriction. Germany says it was purely a political move following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

But since June, researchers have noted a significant increase in heat emanating from the facility thought to be from burning gas.

Russian energy company Gazprom may have intended to use that gas to make LNG at the new plant, but may have had problems handling it and the safest option is to flare it off.

MOSCOW, Aug 8 (Reuters) - Russian airlines, including state-controlled Aeroflot (AFLT.MM), are stripping jetliners to secure spare parts they can no longer buy abroad because of Western sanctions, four industry sources told Reuters.

The steps are in line with advice Russia's government provided in June for airlines to use some aircraft for parts to ensure the remainder of foreign-built planes can continue flying at least through 2025.

MOSCOW, Sept 1 (Reuters) - Ravil Maganov, the chairman of Russia's second-largest oil producer Lukoil (LKOH.MM), died on Thursday after falling from a hospital window in Moscow, two sources familiar with the situation said, becoming the latest in a series of businessmen to meet with sudden unexplained deaths.

The sources confirmed reports by several Russian media that the 67-year-old had plunged to his death, but the circumstances surrounding his fall were unclear.

Russian hospitals have automated beds with spring launchers that roll automatically to the window for just this purpose. Russians are way ahead of us at using medical excuses for politics, KommieKunt Illuminism and all that.

Another oligarch gangster assassination by Putin et alia? I seriously wonder if it's the Russian government burning and blowing up their super yachts.

Ceffer says

I seriously wonder if it's the Russian government burning and blowing up their super yachts.

Except these things are confiscated and sold off by governments and Ruscist is not one of them. So no need to wonder.

Ceffer says

I seriously wonder if it's the Russian government burning and blowing up their super yachts.

insurance fraud

Bd6r says

Ceffer says

I seriously wonder if it's the Russian government burning and blowing up their super yachts.

insurance fraud

Burn it and get cash before the fucking white elefant is confiscated? Makes sense.

"In Soviet Russia, window see you out."

Smoking kills, kiddies!



https://twitter.com/maxfras/status/1565275623593054209