patrick.net

Those with house price rainchecks (interest only loans) will soon see what the future holds for their property and turn their keys in!

Will banks allow that this time? Why should they shoulder the liability?

This is from Inman news yesterday:

Sales in the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area dropped for the sixth month in a row in September, while median prices for the region dropped 0.5 percent from August to September, according to a real estate research firm.

Meanwhile, year-over-year median price increases have ranged from 17.6 percent to 20.5 percent, DataQuick Information Systems announced today.

A total of 11,205 new and resale houses and condos were sold in the Bay Area region last month. That was down 7.8 percent from 12,154 for August, and down 7.2 percent from 12,075 for September 2004.

So far this year 96,591 homes have been sold, down 5 percent from 101,693 for the same nine-month period last year. Last year's year-to-date sales were the highest in DataQuick's statistics, which go back to 1988. Sales this year have been the second highest.

"The Bay Area real estate market seems to have settled into a steady state, with few indicators pointing to any upcoming change. Supply and demand seem stable. We are keeping an eye on rising mortgage interest rates which could slow things down somewhat before the end of the year," said Marshall Prentice, DataQuick president.

The median price paid for a Bay Area home was $616,000 in September. That was down 0.5 percent from $619,000 in August, and up 19.4 percent from $516,000 for September a year ago. DataQuick noted that a slight decline from August to September is normal for the season.

Nice, lots of stats...does DataQuick mention anything specific about inventory?

"Jamie DID show some restraint though when she didn’t say one word about my “stretching the envelope”"

Ahem. Are you baiting me, Jack?

Thanks for the link, Cindy--interesting. I love all these confused sellers. Huh? What do you mean my house isn't worth 500 times what I paid for it? How could that be?!

From the LA Times article:
"In more affordable San Bernardino County, the median home price of $352,000 in September was 33% higher than the year-ago month, according to DataQuick."

Hahahahahaaaaaaa. Yes, you too can own a former crack shack right next to a flop house with a gentleman's club billboard looming over your front yard for a mere 352K. It's a bargain! Gotta love San Berdu, the underdiscovered gem of Cali.

"underdiscovered"

Er, that was supposed to read "undiscovered."

Oh man, back to housing. I was so enjoying being silly.

From the Sacto area
Newly released statistics for the month of September show the median price of a home in the Sacramento area has dropped for the first time in 13 months.

A report from the Sacramento Association of Realtors shows the median price for existing homes in September was $385,000. That's a 2.0 percent drop from the August median of $392,750, and the first price decline since August 2004. The September figures are in sharp contrast to those of only a few months ago, when a vigorous real estate market sparked bidding wars for many homes.

Ok, I've done my duty for the day.

It is good to have a source of information the corroborates what you feel in your gut. There are a bunch of us who have been here for awhile, but I have noticed a lot more traffic in the last month or two and I think the general feeling about housing is getting more pessimistic. I think the most recent purchasers have had to be living under a rock to think buying right now is a good idea.

I think something like 1.2T of mortgage will adjust in 2007. Looks like the "good" time to buy will not arrive before then...

*** NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE ***

…and if they’ve been living under a rock, they will be more willing to overspend on housing!

If they live under a rock, why do they need a house?

Good point!…..Especially being that it is probably nicer under the rock than in those shitboxes that are for sale.

Yes, a "rock" solid home is better than a stucco-covered cardboard box.

Yes, a “rock” solid home is better than a stucco-covered cardboard box.

Certainly a polished black granite rock--unless they're made in Corianâ„¢

Now, financially stable for years to come, we can sit back on our deck and watch the housing bubble collapse…

Glenn, awesome story! I hope some sanity returns to this state, otherwise our long-term economy is in question.

Glenn, seems like you made a great choice. Any regrets? Austin is pretty cool, I'm thinking of jumping ship myself but can't decide on where.

If CA RE never goes down why are all the major big homebuilders stock in the toliet? Took a look at toll bros insider trades, seems the bros sold a ton of stock right before it tanked. Now thats odd. Rats jumping ship?

Madeline

Don't feel guilty, enjoy your good fortune. You weren't one of the piranha's trying to take advantage of the market or one of the suckers who bought in out of fear/greed. I also think you're wise to park the money and wait a bit to buy in. See, you deserve the good fortune you've had because you didn't get greedy and try to buy and flip and you didn't immediately go for the McMansion in the Hollywood hills. Obviously you have more sense than most of the buyers in this market.

"...on the market for 3 months at 720K, just reduced to $689K and no offers

Another house in Fairfax sitting...Jack, ring any bells?

Oh my god, there is a spoof movie titled "Glengarry Bob Ross".

I watched Glengarry Glen Ross just a few weeks ago.

"PUT THAT COFFEE DOWN. Coffee is for closers. "

Just gotta love those housing stocks!

That's sooo looking familiar to that little market upset way back when...I can't quite remember that long ago...

That’s sooo looking familiar to that little market upset way back when…I can’t quite remember that long ago…

It is still quite unlikely for the market to crash tomorrow...

The increase in jobs in health service and educational service is NOT a good sign.

I read a recent research paper on the payroll distribution in different sectors when we are in recession. The common characteristics are: increases in health services, increase in general services, decrease in business services. The increase in health service jobs are mostly accounted for by the increase in low-pay, high-stress nursing home jobs that originally seldom get filled, so the increase in payroll in these industries are not accompanied by an increase in average pay. Same things can be said for educational service.

This is heralding the recession which is already staring us in the face.

I have my own talk show in Phoenix on Sunday nights from 11-12 p.m.

The cast of characters here is just too good. We've got to do a talk show about the housing bubble. I've talked about it on my show, but having a discussion via phone would be a blast.

I just called my producer we can have three or four guys on the line at once for a live shindig.

We could do a roundtable discussion on how this site got started, how the bubble is impacting everyone, etc. Surfer-x has a great story, Randy H. could whip out some econ stats, etc.

This would be a blast. Plus, you can listen to my station on the air anywhere in the world since it's also streamed live via the web.

I'd like some people to weigh in on if they'd be interested...Everyone would get to hear each others' voices, etc.

Sound off gentlemen(women). I've got the show/audience, you guys show up.

I just called my producer we can have three or four guys on the line at once for a live shindig.

We could also invite MP as the "irrational exuberance" poster child.
Uhh...did I just say that? Maybe a sane "bull", such as Jack, is preferable?

If you want to do a crossfire thing where the optimists argue with the pessimists that would be great. Surfer-x could take on Marina Prime or whatever.

My angle is conservative so I'm always arguing with them.

Let's face it...most Californian's that bought houses with this crazy loans are in the cross hairs...inflation is here.

Everyone's welcome. Let's do it.

...So I'm always arguing with liberals, that is...

uh oh, showing up on Michael's talk show won't make you very popular if you have friends who are so bullish about the RE market that they have sunk in their lifetime savings to load up the 6th house in of their portfolio.

I happen to have several friends like that. So whenever they talk about the RE, I just kept nodding to their sentiment. Yes, California homes never go down, never ever (did I say never already?).

Surfer-x could take on Marina Prime or whatever.

Guess that means you've been lurking here for a while!
Well, if you can any sense of sanity across, you're certainly welcome by me--irregardless of what side of center you're on! In the future, if this country wants to get anything done, it will sure help to dispense with the labels "L" or "C".

Let’s face it…most Californian’s that bought houses with this crazy loans are in the cross hairs…inflation is here.

I'd venture to say many other Americans are in that boat as well.

Well, the housing bubble is not a respecter of persons or political parties.

Right, Left, Center and whoever are all gonna take it in the shorts, some more than others, when this thing comes undone.

I just wanted to throw it out there. Let's do it. It's fun. Talk radio is a blast.

You're all stars on this blog...the world is waiting for you to surf the airwaves on the Michael Holliday show: KFNX Newstalk Radio 1100 AM Pheonix, the 15th largest talk show market in the country.

Nina,

You are absolutely correct. I have been investing in RE for many years, and have been studying it for more than 30 years. I have seen the dramatic difference between being prudent and being foolish. I have also seen the dramatic limitations caused by being a pessimist.

"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty."

Sir Winston Churchill

Go to Google.

Enter in the following: KFNX.

The radio station will be the first site. Click it. Click on "Click Here to Listen Live" and you're done.

" would much rather place my bets on the “Huh?” institute for depravity."

Depravity is Prime.

"Also, I have heard far too many irritating, annoying, and unconstructive conservative rant talk shows to believe that yours is somehow a cut above the rest."

Jack is required to say this. It's part of the agreement in the Marin County residents' handbook.

Jack, I'm a conservative talk show host but want to do a roundtable-like phone discussion. That's all. No hidden agendas. No frills. Cards-on-the-table, etc. No big deal just people talking. Not politics, but housing.

Looks like no-one's interested. so that's the way it goes. Hannity? He's a self-serving bore.

The boomer effect on real estate is significant and will continue to add to demand for another 20 years.

The echo boom is by itself smaller than the boomers but reflects a coming wavre of growing demand that will also be rising during the next 40 years.

The departure of the boomers after 2025 will be a stronger effect than the rising demand of the echo boomers.

We are about to experience a few years of cyclical decline in housing prices. After that we will see the full effect of the double demand wave. Today's prices will look dirt cheap to homebuyers in 20 years.

"You really think I am sounding too “Marin”?"

Weeeellll, I was just teasing you, didn't mean anything much by it. I always enjoy reading your point of view. But now that you mention it, maybe you did sound a little lock-step with the liberal party line. ;-)

"I seriously doubt that Marin would take kindly to the “Huh?” Institute for Depravity either…"

I rarely met a group of people who would. Or at least they won't admit to it publicly. (insert devil face emoticon here)

"met"

Meet, I meant. Meet.