patrick.net

November 19

As Ukrainian Troops Advance, Russia Appears Intent on Fighting Long War
Since mid-August, Ukrainian forces have been using U.S.-supplied HIMARS rocket systems to disable the bridges that Russia depended on to resupply its troops on the right bank of the river. Although the Antonovsky Bridge and the roadway across the Nova Kakhovka dam have become all but completely unfit for use by heavy vehicles, Russian forces have not yet abandoned their precarious positions on the Dnieper's western bank, where they still occupy the regional capital.
"Even if Russian forces continue to be driven from the north of the region, they might choose to pull back to defensive lines around the city itself," Barros cautioned. "Very soon, Putin will be forced to make a strategic level decision about whether to accept another military defeat and conserve combat power by withdrawing from the right bank, or to dig in and try to hold the bridgehead at all costs."
...
"In the event that Russia refuses to retreat from Kherson, there's a high probability that the Ukrainians will be smart enough to siege the city, to conserve their forces and not engage in extremely attritional block-to-block combat operations," Barros said.
Barros is less confident in the strategic judgement on the Russian side.
"Kherson city is looking increasingly like a fundamentally untenable position for Russia," he added. "Russian forces will eventually starve there if they insist on trying to hold it against sustained Ukrainian advances, but Putin is still calling the shots, and he seems to be under the false impression that they are capable of winning this war militarily."

One month to the 80th anniversary of Operation Uranus

Southern Ukraine: (Kherson Oblast)

Russian sources stated that Ukrainian forces continued to conduct counteroffensive operations across the entire frontline in Kherson Oblast on October 18. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces defeated a Ukrainian offensive in the direction of Kherson City near Zelenyi Hai (20km northwest of Kherson City) on October 18.[21] The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian attack in the direction of Bruskinske, near the Ukrainian bridgehead over the Inhulets River.[22] Different Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces attempted to break through Russian lines near Mylove (north of Beryslav) and are accumulating forces to launch a new counteroffensive toward Beryslav within the next 24 hours.[23] ISW offers no assessment of these claims. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Ukrainian forces defeated a Russian sabotage and reconnaissance platoon attempting to bypass Ukrainian positions near Nova Kamyanka (about 40km northeast of Beryslav).[24]

Ukrainian forces continued to target Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) and ammunition depots in Central Kherson Oblast on October 18. Ukraine’s Southern Operational command reported that Ukrainian forces conducted about 100 fire missions and destroyed two Russian ammunition depots near or around Beryslav on October 18.[25] A local Kherson Telegram channel reported explosions in Russian-occupied Muzykivka (4km north of Kherson City), Kakhovka (6km east of Nova Kakhovka), and Nova Zburivka (approximately 47 km southwest of Kherson City).[26]

EBGuy says

Ukrainian forces have been using U.S.-supplied HIMARS

Western backed mercenaries...

While Russian performance has been underwhelming, it's not the draftees of the UAF that are doing this. They are simply moving into areas conquered by Mercs.

AmericanKulak says

While Russian performance has been underwhelming, it's not the draftees of the UAF that are doing this. They are simply moving into areas conquered by Mercs.

What's your estimate on their numbers?

I'm starting to think this dam is a tactical nuke. That said, I remember reading early on about the Russians wanting to "turn the water back on" for Crimea. I'm skeptical they'll blow this or are preparing to evacuate troops. My fear is the historical reenactment eluded to in the name of the thread.

Russian forces will likely attempt to blow up the dam at the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP) to cover their withdrawal and to prevent Ukrainian forces from pursuing Russian forces deeper into Kherson Oblast. Russian forces will almost certainly blame Ukraine for the dam attack, as ISW has previously assessed.[11] Ukraine has no material interest in blowing the dam, which could flood 80 Ukrainian cities and displace hundreds of thousands of people while damaging Ukraine’s already-tenuous electricity supply. Russia, however, has every reason to attempt to provide cover to its retreating forces and to widen the Dnipro River, which Ukrainian forces would need to cross to continue their counteroffensive. Any claims that Russian forces would not blow the dam due to concerns for the water supply to Crimea are absurd. Crimea survived without access to the canal flowing from the Dnipro since Russia illegally invaded and annexed it in 2014 through the restoration of access following Russia’s invasion in February 2022. Russian officials have demonstrated their ability to indefinitely supply Crimea with water without access to the canal. Russian forces will try to hold eastern Kherson Oblast not for the water, but rather to provide a buffer zone that enables the defense of Crimea and prevents Ukrainian forces from getting into artillery range of the peninsula. Russian decisionmakers may believe that blowing the dam will enable them to retain that buffer zone. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned on October 21 that blowing the dam could cut water supplies to much of southern Ukraine and would pose a serious risk to the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), which lies upstream of the dam.[12] The ZNPP relies on water from the Kakhovka reservoir to cool its facilities.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-21

So Kherson is Stalingrad? How's the encirclement will happen seeing that there is the sea to the South and huge reservoir to the North with a major city at its top? An amphibious assault from the South and run around Zaporizzhya? I just don't see it. Not with the troop numbers Surovikin has at hand and especially not with the current sorry state of the Black Sea Fleet. They have what, 4 amph assault ships left? That's 4-5 battalion tactical groups, give or take. Provided they ALL make it past Neptune/Harpoon/Brimstone batteries lying in wait...

Well, not seeing any massive pincer movements to surround the AFU units outside Donetsk.

AmericanKulak says

Well, not seeing any massive pincer movements to surround the AFU units outside Donetsk.

Donetsk? Why Donetsk? It doesn't even have a river, so not remotely similar to Stalingrad. It must be Kherson for a proper Operation Your Anus cosplay.

PS. Lisichansk would work in a pinch, but it's much smaller and the river is much narrower too, so it would be like a 1/20 scale model of Stalingrad.

This is pretty fucking embarassing for Russia, I gotta say. They're actually being rolled back. Even if Mercs are really doing the fighting and the AFU is just moving in to hold areas cleared by higher morale, high expertise troops.

Yikes, this is the first time I've seen the Institute for the Study of War say that we might be headed towards a seige of Stalingrad type situation.
Russian forces are likely preparing to defend Kherson City and are not fully withdrawing from upper Kherson Oblast despite previous confirmed reports of some Russian elements withdrawing from upper Kherson.[21] Budanov stated on October 24 that Russian forces are not retreating from Kherson City but are instead preparing the city for urban combat.[22] This report is consistent with indicators that ISW has observed in late October.[23] Recent reporting about Russian military operations in Kherson have not always distinguished clearly enough between activities in Kherson City and those in western Kherson Oblast generally. Russian forces have begun a partial withdrawal from northwestern Kherson Oblast even while preparing to defend Kherson City. They have not launched into a full withdrawal from the city or the oblast as of this report.

The Russian position in upper Kherson Oblast is, nevertheless, likely untenable; and Ukrainian forces will likely capture upper Kherson Oblast by the end of 2022. A Russian milblogger stated that Russia’s surrender even of Kherson City is overdue, as an attempt to hold the city will likely result in defeat.[24] This milblogger argued that if Russia’s military command decides to wage the war in Ukraine to a successful end, then the surrender of Kherson City is “nothing terrible” in the long run. The Russian military likely has not prepared the information space for a military defeat in Kherson Oblast as of October 24. A Russian milblogger wrote that his Russian military contacts in Kherson Oblast do not want to nor plan to retreat.[25] Russian media has not discussed the possibility of a major military loss in Kherson Oblast besides promoting information operations about a Ukrainian false-flag attack against the Kakhova Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP) Dam.[26]

Latest from the Institute for the Study of War explicitly mentions you know what...
Russian forces continued to establish fallback positions near the Dnipro River on October 25. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces are preparing defensive positions on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River and are mining the coastline near Hornostaivka, about 40km northeast of Nova Kakhovka.[31] The Ukrainian General Staff added that Russian forces are leaving small passages for a potential retreat and are attempting to repair destroyed pontoon crossings.[32] Russian milbloggers claimed that the Russian military command has not decided on the fate of Kherson City, given the ongoing situation in Kherson Oblast.[33] Other milbloggers argued that Russian forces will be unable to hold Kherson City and that the Russian government can prevent a “Battle of Stalingrad” by fully withdrawing to the eastern bank of the Dnipro River.[34]

Operation Whose Anus now?

Eric Holder says

Operation Whose Anus now?

ISW is reporting that the Russians continue to dig in. Do you have any other info?
The dam, canal and nuclear power plant continue to give me nightmares.
Russian forces continued defensive preparations in Kherson Oblast on November 8. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Russian troops are conducting active defense and trying to hold occupied positions throughout Kherson Oblast.[18] Geolocated footage and images posted to Twitter on November 8 show Russian pillboxes (concrete defensive structures) in Hola Prystan, about 8km south of Kherson City on the east bank of the Dnipro River.[19] A Russian milblogger reiterated that Russian forces maintain positions in Kherson Oblast and claimed that there are no indicators that Russian troops intend to withdraw.[20]

EBGuy says

Eric Holder says

Operation Whose Anus now?

ISW is reporting that the Russians continue to dig in. Do you have any other info?

Yes, right from the horse's mouth:

LONDON, Nov 9 (Reuters) - Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu on Wednesday ordered his troops to withdraw from the occupied Ukrainian city of Kherson and take up defensive lines on the opposite bank of the River Dnipro.

The announcement marked one of Russia's most significant retreats and a potential turning point in the war, now nearing the end of its ninth month.

In televised comments, General Sergei Surovikin, in overall command of the war, reported to Shoigu that it was no longer possible to keep Kherson city supplied.

"Having comprehensively assessed the current situation, it is proposed to take up defence along the left (eastern) bank of the Dnipro River," said Surovikin, standing at a lectern and indicating troop positions on a map whose details were greyed-out for the TV audience.

"I understand that this is a very difficult decision, but at the same time we will preserve the most important thing - the lives of our servicemen and, in general, the combat effectiveness of the group of troops, which it is futile to keep on the right bank in a limited area."

For it to remain operation Your Anus no withrawal from Stalingrad... err.. Kherson should happen. If there is a withdrawal it's not Operation Your Anus anymore.

Eric Holder says

If there is a withdrawal it's not Operation Your Anus anymore.

Let's hope the withdrawal is real. From NYTimes:
Ukraine had warned that Russia might try to feign a retreat in hopes of drawing Ukraine into urban combat. The military had been tracking signs of a Russian retreat through Wednesday but was not convinced the Russian military intended to fully withdraw from Kherson City and the surrounding Russian bridgehead on the western bank of the Dnipro River, according to Roman Kostenko, a colonel in the army and chairman of the defense and intelligence committee in Ukraine’s Parliament.

“We have signs they are pulling out,” Colonel Kostenko said in a telephone interview. “They blew up bridges that would have allowed our forces to advance. We see them leaving population centers, but in some they leave soldiers behind to cover their movements.”

Ukrainian intelligence agencies were working to assess Russia’s movements, he said, and noted that the Russian announcement could be misdirection. “We are watching,” Colonel Kostenko said.

This piece is also rather ominous...
Standing in front of a lectern and pointing out troop movements on a map of Ukraine that was blurred, General Surovokin cited Ukraine’s relentless shelling and the difficulty of maintaining crossing points and the potential flooding of the area as the main reasons for the pullout.