patrick.net

BayArea says

2023 will be a great time to buy a used car.

IMO, 2024 will be better.

Eman says

I’d never drive a Corolla, Prius or Civic, Camry or Accord. No amount of money savings is worth my life.

This is a good point. I will keep this mind. Thank you.

gabbar says

Eman says

I’d never drive a Corolla, Prius or Civic, Camry or Accord. No amount of money savings is worth my life.

This is a good point. I will keep this mind. Thank you.

Tesla just happens to provide 1) safety, 2) performance, and 3) savings in comparable vehicle prices we used to own….an apple to apple comparison IMO.

I didn’t buy Teslas to “save the planet” while I get to give my friends, who are into globull warming, a hard time while still drive ICE vehicles. Some outright hate Elon with a vengeance. 😂

Booger says

BayArea says

2023 will be a great time to buy a used car.

IMO, 2024 will be better.

Seems like Booger has a 🔮! Interestingly, 2024 may never come for some with the “died suddenly” fiasco that we have witnessed in the last year or two.

If one could afford something without putting financial distress/burden on the family, I’d say go for it. Tomorrow is not guaranteed. In fact, it may never come.

Eman says

gabbar says

How was the test drive of Model Y? I will keep your comments about Lexus and Acura in mind.

He also sold his wife’s GX470 and bought her a Model Y LR. They loved their Lexus, but it was time to let it go. They don’t miss it. That was interesting for me.

GX is a very capable off-roader. The fact that they happily replaced it with an electric minivan means that they never needed or used what that GX had to offer.

RWSGFY says

GX is a very capable off-roader. The fact that they happily replaced it with an electric minivan means that they never needed or used what that GX had to offer.

It was a beautiful car, but they didn’t buy it for the purpose you described. We, real estate investors, buy things for different reason. He had a great year and needed a tax write-off so he bought the GX470 for his wife. He was driving BMW and Audi because they were all tax deductible. He did well in the 2010’s when real estate was booming.

We do stuff that the average Joe/Jane would consider “stupid” looking from afar without fully understanding the implications. Let’s say we did well and needed some big deductions to minimize our tax liability. What would we do? Either buy toys and write them off, or we buy an underperforming asset, throw money at it, defer the gains, make it perform and get the equity back out tax-free.

Example: Buy a $2M underperforming building at 3.5 cap rate. 30% in land value and 70% in structure. This is a $50k phantom loss deduction based on 27.5 years depreciation. Then throw $200k in improvements to help improve the value of the asset in addition to making it performing better. That’s $250k in deductions in addition to closing costs, interest payments, etc….. A couple years later when it’s performing at 6-7 cap, do a cash out refinance, pull out the equity tax-free. This is how we convert taxable income to non-taxable income. All legal under the IRS codes.

I Eman says

We do stuff that the average Joe/Jane would consider “stupid” looking from afar without fully understanding the implications. Let’s say we did well and needed some big deductions to minimize our tax liability. What would we do? Either buy toys and write them off, or we buy an underperforming asset, throw money at it, defer the gains, make it perform and get the equity back out tax-free.
Example: Buy a $2M underperforming building at 3.5 cap rate. 30% in land value and 70% in structure. This is a $50k phantom loss deduction based on 27.5 years depreciation. Then throw $200k in improvements to help improve the value of the asset in addition to making it performing better. That’s $250k in deductions in addition to closing costs, interest payments, etc….. A couple years later when it’s performing at 6-7 cap, do a cash out refinance, pull out the equity tax-free. This is how we convert taxable income to non-taxable income. All legal under the IRS codes.

Very interesting.
I live in an apartment now. Don't own a home/never did. I am in the market to purchase a small single family home or a small business (probably not the best time). What would be your recommendation to me? I have some cash sitting in a checking account and a secure job.

When my Mazda lease expires in March of next year. I'm done leasing from Mazda.
No in fact I'm done with the new car market period. They have become well over 50% over inflated.

The sales man who I have leased over 10 Mazda's from over the last 15 years or so, called me last week, and was feeling the waters.
He told me he got the brand new Mazda CX9 in. I asked him, how much are they going for. He told me $70K, the MSRP is $40K though Edmunds suggest you pay $36K. The dealers are overly greedy, and are asking almost double for cars and trucks. Especially the pick up truck market.

I think it's time the Auto industry undergoes a fundamental change. Everyone quit buying new cars, will do wonders for the business.
They'll learn the importance of the value shopper.

I probably posted this elsewhere; oh well.
I have the funnest car I have ever driven; Volvo S60 T5 2013.
This was made in Belgium and has the 5 cylinder 2.5 liter 250 HP turbo engine.
It's a rocket ship in sport mode but using cruise control I got 30mph on the Florida Turnpike.
It feels like it's on rails on the highway.
A used one is not expensive, I think about $9,000 today.
The paint and the steel are thick not like my Toyota pickup.
It's also a cool looking car.
My friend's Audi is not as nice, my other friend's BMW is pretty solid but not as nice looking nor aerodynamic so he gets lower highway mileage.
Edit: I would avoid the newer Volvos with the 4 cylinder engine.

Tenpoundbass says

He told me $70K, the MSRP is $40K

Did you tell the salesperson off at that point? Seriously, anyone who overpays by 30K on a Mazda is a freaking moron.

BayArea says

I bought and sold a car in the past month as we upgraded our 5 seater SUV to a 7 seater to accommodate our family.

What did you sell (5 seater SUV) ? A Subaru Forester ?

What did you buy (7 seater) ? A cargo van or Subaru Ascent ?

Wolfman at WolfStreet website has been showing used car prices have steadily been decreasing over last 12 to 18 months.

.

I sold a 5 seater 4Runner
I bought a 7 seater LR4

zzyzzx says

Did you tell the salesperson off at that point?

I told him I'm out of the new car market, for the foreseeable future.

Tenpoundbass says

zzyzzx says

Did you tell the salesperson off at that point?

I told him I'm out of the new car market, for the foreseeable future.

I would not have been nearly as polite.

People have to nuts to spend that much money for how much time is spent driving it. Commuter cars are supposed to be cheap.

BayArea says

I sold a 5 seater 4Runner
I bought a 7 seater LR4

Should have stuck with the 4 Runner. They have 3rd rows on certain models if it's a passenger issue. We have one. Wish we had the Sequoia still, but you're going to get raped on the LR with maintenance.

That said car is preference, so not shitting on you, just my take. I have a 2012 Nissan Armada Platinum and with 220k miles it's still nicer than any newer model I've driven. I've rented plenty too. Ford is a shit show by a long shot. BMW is also shit when I've driven them. It's like they hired a retarded engineer that overthought everything on the car.

Asians make and design the best cars. I think that's indisputable at this point. Teslas are fun to drive, but they're very basic shit and build. It's not quality. It's a god damn golf cart with metal. European cars are dressed up shit. Asians do it best is all I'll say.

WookieMan says

Asians make and design the best cars. I think that's indisputable at this point. Teslas are fun to drive, but they're very basic shit and build. It's not quality. It's a god damn golf cart with metal. European cars are dressed up shit. Asians do it best is all I'll say.

I don't think I'll ever own anything but a Toyota or Lexus again.

ad says

Wolfman at WolfStreet website has been showing used car prices have steadily been decreasing over last 12 to 18 months.

That was true for a while but the past couple of months or so used car prices have been going back up again:

gabbar says

I Eman says

We do stuff that the average Joe/Jane would consider “stupid” looking from afar without fully understanding the implications. Let’s say we did well and needed some big deductions to minimize our tax liability. What would we do? Either buy toys and write them off, or we buy an underperforming asset, throw money at it, defer the gains, make it perform and get the equity back out tax-free.
Example: Buy a $2M underperforming building at 3.5 cap rate. 30% in land value and 70% in structure. This is a $50k phantom loss deduction based on 27.5 years depreciation. Then throw $200k in improvements to help improve the value of the asset in addition to making it performing better. That’s $250k in deductions in addition to closing costs, interest payments, etc….. A couple years later when it’s performing at 6-7 cap, do a cash out refinance, pull out the equity tax-free. This is how we convert t...

gabbar says

I Eman says

We do stuff that the average Joe/Jane would consider “stupid” looking from afar without fully understanding the implications. Let’s say we did well and needed some big deductions to minimize our tax liability. What would we do? Either buy toys and write them off, or we buy an underperforming asset, throw money at it, defer the gains, make it perform and get the equity back out tax-free.
Example: Buy a $2M underperforming building at 3.5 cap rate. 30% in land value and 70% in structure. This is a $50k phantom loss deduction based on 27.5 years depreciation. Then throw $200k in improvements to help improve the value of the asset in addition to making it performing better. That’s $250k in deductions in addition to closing costs, interest payments, etc….. A couple years later when it’s performing at 6-7 cap, do a cash out refinance, pull out the equity tax-free. This is how we convert t...

@gabbar,

If I could do it over again, I would buy a 4plex or triple as my first residence. Live in one unit and rent out others. Take advantage of the lower mortgage rate. Once you’re ready to move on, rent out your unit and buy a single family home. Of course this approach is not for everyone.

Alternatively, invest in the stock market as early as possible. Just dollar cost average in SPY and QQQ and let time do the heavy lifting. I’m a real estate investor so I’m biased towards real estate.

Cars Will Be Half Off Soon (by I Allegedly)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oWkpJiJ0OgQ

RayAmerica says

Cars Will Be Half Off Soon (by I Allegedly)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oWkpJiJ0OgQ

I call bullshit.

GNL says

I don't think I'll ever own anything but a Toyota or Lexus again.

I don't know why considering it's the same auto maker, but anyone I know with a Lexus has issues. I think Toyota is more worried about the markup in price for Lexus and some things slide as far as quality control. My Toyota guy travels the country, orders thousands of cars for dealers, etc. He accidentally order 10k minivans a couple years back. Not a joke. I've rode in cars that aren't even available to the public, Toyota or Lexus.

I don't know how they manage that part of the brand, but it's overrated. They dress up standard Toyotas and I think they mess it up in the process focusing on wood grained interiors (plastic) and cheap leather seats. No different than Nissan/Infinity and Honda/Acura. They just add $20-30k in MSRP for the same car, but it lacks quality even though it's supposed to be premium. You're better off getting a maxed out Toyota is all I'll say than a Lexus. Save yourself $$$$$

I’m 100% a Lexus/Toyota guy. I drive a two-decade old Lexus myself. It’s been problem free since I bought it in 2011. There’s no vehicle brand I have more confidence in.

The LR4 is the wife’s car. We know the risks well and did plenty of research. I will be the first to admit, this purchase was made not by using my own typical process of having data steer me towards a decision. This is the wife’s dream car and I’m ok taking on a bit more risk for her to have the car she’s been talking about for the last decade. Worst case, it’ll be a good lesson for the future.

90-95% of the time I will make the prudent, wise, safe decision. However, I don’t want to do that 100% of the time because, well, that’s really fucking boring considering I have maybe 40yrs left on this planet if I’m lucky 😀

BayArea says

I’m 100% a Lexus/Toyota guy. I drive a two-decade old Lexus myself. It’s been problem free since I bought it in 2011. There’s no vehicle brand I have more confidence in.

You've got a personal track record, so I can't argue that. If it works it works. I just know quite a few Lexus owners with lots of issues. Doesn't mean I'm a know it all. My anecdotal evidence is enough for me to not buy one.

I'm a cheapest, biggest car I can get that has luxury features. I'll buy the decked out Sequoia over a GX 460 Lexus. I don't like trucks, so it's SUV's. My Armada can tow as much as a Titan and I can have 7 passengers instead of 5 in cramped quarters. I then can tow a trailer that is double to triple the space of a pickup truck bed.

Dual use with kids, large sized SUV's blow away pickup trucks. Suburban, Sequoia, Armada, etc. Towing capacity, comfort, size, features, etc. Trucks are put retardation unless, and that's a big unless, you're in the trades. You're better off with a van. Pickup trucks are small penis vehicles.

I've asked many mechanics which cars are best for reliability and least expensive to maintain. Toyota and Lexus always pop up. I like Honda also...but 3rd on the list.

Since 2010 I have been an exclusive Mazda man. But only because they had performance, gas mileage, and price point, that made the most sense out of any car manufacturer. Most importantly they had reliability, in the 10 Mazda's I have owned since 2010. I have never had to take any of them the dealer for anything. Nada, zip, nothing!

Everyone I know with Chevy, Nissan, Kia, and Hamdani all at some point in their two to three year lease, have to take their car to the dealer to get repaired. Ranging from serious, to just minor stuff, but none the less, I have not had one experience.

The problem has been over the last 5 years they have been more aggressive at having a sticker far over the MSRP, while making you feel like it's a great deal, and hiding behind Mazda's immutable up front pricing. Then besides that adding to their yoy inflation, they call you in as early as possible. Tell you that you can get out of your car. But what they don't tell you until after you sit for 3 hours waiting for their finance man to put the deal together.(Intentional old dealer tactic to wear the customer down). When the paper work comes back you find out they added to outstanding payments on the other car, onto the overall price. By time the deal is signed you're paying over $389 for a Sports model missing all of the whooptie doos and accouchements.
When you don't expect to pay a penny over $199 for Sports Mazda. It's a lease, I have never seen how people pay as much for a lease as a car payment for ownership should be going for.

My Dealer really fucked up losing a Mazda family, and I imagine I'm not the only one.
They used to be a great company, I stuck with them, thinking it was just the time I caught them and no deals were being offered. But they are greedy bastards year around. All of their car models regardless of the package all had piss and vinegar and would scoot, when it needed too. The Sport 3 I'm in now, is a pig. Plus it has all of the stuff on the menu, but all of the cool shit is unavailable because I don't have the upgraded package. Which I know is just a software update and not because I have a different console. It's shit like that, that is also chicken shit I don't expect heads up display but the side sensors, mirror lane indicators, proximity unlocking and locking(yes the car has all of the sensors for it, it even has the sensor ellipse on the driver door handle), Navigation and stuff like that. Should come standard on all of the flagship models. The other models then pay more for Moon Roof, Stereo setup, upholstery, larger engine, and things that are NOT physically on the lower models.
I have been in their Mac Daddy or the next in line, the whole time I have been their loyal customer. For Andrew to call me while I was in a 2020 rare hatch back Mazda 3, with the grand touring package, it rode, drove, and looked like butter. For him to have me bring in that car knowing I still had a year payments on it. To then put me in a $289 shitty Sport Mazda 3, then put another $100 a month on top of that. It was a sour downgrade after the deal settled and I realized what was done.

I'm done with Mazda, they are not the company that they once were. When I do get back in the new car market, if ever again. I'll be looking at another brand. I'm brand loyal, until the brand jumps the shark, and they all always do.

My early experience with Mazda, when they told you they would eat the remaining lease payments, they meant it. They gave a $3000 loyal customer discount, that could be used in conjunction with any dealer incentives, then on top of that. The manage could approve any further haggling I may have done.

On top of that their lease prices were pretty fair to begin with.

I've owned numerous Toyota and Lexus vehicles over the past 35 years; currently a Lexus LS 460 and a new GX with the last of the V-8's. Both are bullet proof. My one rule is to only buy a Lexus built in a Japanese factory - they seem to make the best product

just_passing_through says

ad says

Wolfman at WolfStreet website has been showing used car prices have steadily been decreasing over last 12 to 18 months.

That was true for a while but the past couple of months or so used car prices have been going back up again:

Confirmed!

They probably know what's coming down the pipeline

desertguy says

a new GX with the last of the V-8's

When did they build the last of the V-8's?

desertguy says

I've owned numerous Toyota and Lexus vehicles over the past 35 years; currently a Lexus LS 460 and a new GX with the last of the V-8's. Both are bullet proof. My one rule is to only buy a Lexus built in a Japanese factory - they seem to make the best product

I have to say Lexus LS 460 is a great car. I was going to either buy this car or the Tesla Model S. No regret buying the S though. Great choices there.

desertguy says

My one rule is to only buy a Lexus built in a Japanese factory - they seem to make the best product

How can you tell where it was built? I assume some website + VIN?

GNL says

desertguy says

My one rule is to only buy a Lexus built in a Japanese factory - they seem to make the best product

How can you tell where it was built? I assume some website + VIN?

Japan-built cars have VINs starting with J. US-built - 1.

RWSGFY says

GNL says

desertguy says

My one rule is to only buy a Lexus built in a Japanese factory - they seem to make the best product

How can you tell where it was built? I assume some website + VIN?

Japan-built cars have VINs starting with J. US-built - 1.

I had my US-assembled Camry for 18 years and about 170,000 miles. Only one single repair, radiator began leaking along a welded seam at about 120,000 miles. It was assembled in Indiana. I kind of regret selling it. I had inherited a (newer) POS BMW (Mini Cooper) from one of my kids and so had more cars than I wanted. (No, it was not "taking over the payments".) Had to rid of that one.

The other US-assembled Toyota I still have is a 2006 model Tacoma, assembled at the NUMMI plant in Fremont, California, that's now a Tesla factory. To date I have not had a single repair in 17 years and 97,000 miles. Just regular wear maintenance (brakes, etc).

My experiences with the US-built Toyotas suggest to me that the quality and reliability problems with US models is not due to the workers on the factory floors. It's the engineering, whose imperatives come from the management. Kind of like Boeing with its 737 MAX.

B.A.C.A.H. says

Japan-built cars have VINs starting with J. US-built - 1.

I got a 20 year old rusty but reliable Toyota Corolla with VIN starting with J. However, are Subarus, Mazdas made in Japan are not as reliable? Why?

Tenpoundbass says

Everyone I know with Chevy, Nissan, Kia, and Hamdani all at some point in their two to three year lease, have to take their car to the dealer to get repaired. Ranging from serious, to just minor stuff, but none the less, I have not had one experience.

If they are leasing new cars wouldn't the issues mentioned all be under warranty?

gabbar says

B.A.C.A.H. says

Japan-built cars have VINs starting with J. US-built - 1.

I got a 20 year old rusty but reliable Toyota Corolla with VIN starting with J. However, are Subarus, Mazdas made in Japan are not as reliable? Why?

Google “Toyota lean and six sigma” production systems

B.A.C.A.H. says

My experiences with the US-built Toyotas suggest to me that the quality and reliability problems with US models is not due to the workers on the factory floors. It's the engineering, whose imperatives come from the management. Kind of like Boeing with its 737 MAX.

This is probably true. The MAX was an absolute failure, BUT most of it was due to pilot error. Engineering wasn't great, but it was solvable with a good pilot. You can hand fly a plane and unfortunately some foreign pilots didn't know how to do that and override the MCAS system. The MAX was all over the US during that time and no accidents. It's probably racist to say that though. Know how to fly the damn plane without automated systems. They didn't. People died.

gabbar says

desertguy says

a new GX with the last of the V-8's

When did they build the last of the V-8's?

The LX has already transitioned to a twin turbo V6, same with the LS. For the GX, 2023 is last year of the production run with a V8, which started in 2009, which is one of the reasons the 2022 and 23 are so bullet proof. Next year complete redesign.