patrick.net

Eric Holder says

Not a word about "Nazis", "biolabs", "Satan", "demilitarization" , "NATO" or any of that previous bullshit anymore.

Exactly as Putin is a master of manipulation and gaslighting.

Even go back to when Bush jr was President and Putin's foreign ministry stated that Russia still recognized the former Soviet states like Estonia and Ukraine as being part of the Russian Federation.

That is why the Georgia invasion happened toward the end of Bush jr's administration.

I understand as in a way, it is Russia trying to defend its existence AND legacy. By annexing territory and populations, it become more relevant by becoming larger.

Russia understandably does not want to shrink in power and size.

Also victories and seizures improve Russia physique and morale, as well as bring in some economic rewards or spoils.

.

ad says

Also victories and seizures improve Russia physique and morale, as well as bring in some economic rewards or spoils.

At a heavy cost though. Russians are at the point of realizing they didn't bring the ladder to the hole they dug. It's taken 4 generations, but they're running out of men thinking they can just get into conflicts of attrition.

It sucks losing anyone in war like we did in the ME, but we really didn't lose that many soldiers. 5,429 over 20 years between Iraq and Afghanistan. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_military_casualties_of_war

But Putin is estimated to have lost 60k men so far. https://www.businessinsider.com/more-russian-soldiers-died-ukraine-than-all-wars-since-wwii-2023-2

Russia is either going to encourage gang bang parties to get women pregnant or they're screwed over the next decades, especially if this drags on. That's why the US is supplying weapons whether one likes it or not. https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/03/04/russias-population-nightmare-is-going-to-get-even-worse (sorry paywall).

Ukraine is screwed either way. But if Russia gets into the heavy 6 figures or god forbid 7 figure war death toll their demographics are toast for generations. Maybe a century. Polygamy would be the only way out of the hole and that would take 30-50 years to get a balanced population best case. I don't think Polygamy is an option there. They're going to need a baby boom either way.

Young women won't have suitable men and will move to Western nations if they can. Dead young men cannot produce material or build things. They can't make babies when they're six feet under.

There's a reason Russia is using Soviet era military equipment. They didn't have the men to make it. I also highly doubt they have the intelligence and ability to launch their nukes with any precision. It would have to be dirty bomb style that would likely entail killing their own soldiers and making the land useless they're trying to occupy.

We knew in 2011 Putin would attack Ukraine, says Bill Clinton

Revelation raises questions about whether US and Europe should have been more prepared for 2014 invasion

Vladimir Putin told Bill Clinton three years before his 2014 attack on Ukraine that he was not bound by the Budapest Memorandum guaranteeing the country’s territorial integrity, according to the former US president.

The revelation raises questions about whether the US and its European allies should have been more prepared for the 2014 attack, when Russia annexed Crimea and attacked the Donbas.

Clinton said he had talked to the Russian president at the 2011 World Economic Forum in Davos, where Putin brought up the issue of the memorandum, under which Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan agreed in 1994 to give up the nuclear arsenal they inherited on their territory from the Soviet Union, in return for assurances their sovereignty would be respected “within existing borders”.

It was signed by Boris Yeltsin on behalf of Russia, Clinton for the US, and John Major on behalf of the UK, acting as a third guarantor nation.

“Putin told me in 2011, three years before he took Crimea, that he did not agree with the agreement I made with Boris Yeltsin, that they would respect Ukraine’s territory if they gave up their nuclear weapons,” Clinton said on Thursday at a public discussion at 92nd Street Y, a Jewish cultural and community centre in New York.

“Putin said to me: ‘… I know Boris agreed to go along with you and John Major and Nato, but he never got it through the Duma [Russian parliament]. We have our extreme nationalists too. I don’t agree with it and I do not support it and I’m not bound by it.’

“I knew from that day forward, it was just a matter of time,” the former president said of Putin launching an attack.

The Russian leader had already launched an invasion of Chechnya in 1999, and Georgia in 2008.

After the seizure of Crimea in 2014, Putin claimed Russia was not bound by the Budapest Memorandum because the Maidan revolution and change of government in Kyiv earlier that year meant Ukraine had become a different state. “In respect to this state, we have not signed any obligatory documents,” he said.

However, his conversation with Clinton suggests Putin had decided not to honour the agreement years before the Maidan uprising.

...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/05/we-knew-putin-would-attack-ukraine-back-in-2011-says-bill-clinton

Another nail into the "muh coup!" theory.

Eric Holder says

We knew in 2011 Putin would attack Ukraine, says Bill Clinton

Revelation raises questions about whether US and Europe should have been more prepared for 2014 invasion

Vladimir Putin told Bill Clinton three years before his 2014 attack on Ukraine that he was not bound by the Budapest Memorandum guaranteeing the country’s territorial integrity, according to the former US president.

The revelation raises questions about whether the US and its (some text omitted to shorten quote...) d.

However, his conversation with Clinton suggests Putin had decided not to honour the agreement years before the Maidan uprising.

...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/05/we-knew-putin-would-attack-ukraine-back-in-2011-says-bill-clinton

Another nail into the "muh coup!" theory.

It says it right on your linked article that the coup massively contributed to the situation, even if the roots of the conflict arose earlier. Plus everything Putin mentioned are valid concerns, why did nobody negotiate well ahead of time? Doesn't sound like he just wanted to invade, so if they had come to an agreement together years before there would be zero justification for his attack and he would face a much more united front of countries pushing back.

mell says

However, his conversation with Clinton suggests Putin had decided not to honour the agreement years before the Maidan uprising.

It goes back to the first term of Bush Jr.

I recall there were news reports about Russian foreign ministry telling Bush Jr admin that the Kremlin viewed the old Soviet republics like the Baltics and Ukraine as still being part of Russia, not only in regards to culture but territorial claims as well.

I suspect Bill Clinton's involvement in Yugoslavia and also Poland joining NATO were some causes for this.

/

Eric Holder says

Vladimir Putin told Bill Clinton three years before his 2014 attack on Ukraine that he was not bound by the Budapest Memorandum guaranteeing the country’s territorial integrity, according to the former US president.

Why would Putin talk to Bill Clinton in 2011?

This is just more bullshit from the intelligence agencies. They never stop lying to the public.

richwicks says

Why would Putin talk to Bill Clinton in 2011?

Why wouldn't he?

richwicks says

This is just more bullshit from the intelligence agencies. They never stop lying to the public.

Or more gaslighting from you.

Aaaand they confess:

It’s interesting that to appeal to the Russian public it actually helps to portray the war as what it really is, a colonial war. No attempt to disguise it as being about Nato or Russian security, which is what Kremlin uses for idiots abroad

https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1703794421278429446

Eric Holder says

richwicks says

Why would Putin talk to Bill Clinton in 2011?

Why wouldn't he?

Because in 2011, Cliton was just a washed up, used up, intelligence asset puppet. Why would Putin be wasting his time talking to that? Cliton wasn't even in government.

If Cliton told Putin they intended to continue to expand NATO during his presidency, there would have been a war between Russia and NATO (which is what we have right now) more than 2 decades ago and in 2011, Cliton was just a grifting asshole raping kids on Epstein's plane and island. Why would Putin waste his time talking to a FORMER puppet? Putin isn't a moron. Putin knows AT LEAST as much as I know about our actual structure of our government.

IF Putin talked to Clinton about this situation, Clinton lied. He lies all the time. He lied about the bombing of the Al-Shifa pharmaceutal plant claiming it was making chemical weapons precursors, on the SAME DAY that Monica Lewinsky presented her dress in court to detract from that. 11 people dead, and that was the only plant that made drugs to treat malaria in Sudan

Eric Holder says

richwicks says

This is just more bullshit from the intelligence agencies. They never stop lying to the public.

Or more gaslighting from you.

Are you kidding me?

Hey, is Hunter Biden's laptop "Russian disinformation"? FIVTY-ONE (51) CIA asshole twats lied about that.

You must realize that they have ZERO credibility, ZERO worries about lying. Why, do you insist people should listen to them? They are liars.

You must know this, why do you pretend you don't? Why do you pretend to sleep? I can't believe you are this naive, I think you're actively being dishonest. You and I both know the intelligence agencies can't be trusted, and you know what they will do. The had agent provocateurs for January 6th, they created a fake kidnapping against Gretchen Whitmer. What happened to those poor dopes? 12 out of 18 of them were FIB fucks. They are the ones that funded Antifa and BLM.

I have pointed this out to you multiple times, and you still refer to the "intelligence agencies" as some assholes we should listen to. Fuck them. All they do is lie.

Is Ray Epps a FIB asset? Not according to the FIB, although he OBVIOUSLY is.

In time, I'll run into loggerheads again with you, and you'll ask something stupid like "why would the government lie" - because they ALWAYS do. It's just a group of criminals.

Aaaaand they keep
confessing:

https://twitter.com/MyLordBebo/status/1706377083608293415/mediaViewer?mode=profile

Let's hear the pretzel-logic denial of why this diesn't mean what it means.
Anybody wants to take a stab at this?

Russia, if we don't make peace.

Onvacation says

Russia, if we don't make peace.

Oh, a prediction. And a juicy one to boot.

Care to add a timeline?

PS. You do realize that by posting that map you basically agreed withe premise that the whole SCHMO is nothing but a landgrab?

RWSGFY says

Aaaaand they keep
confessing:

https://twitter.com/MyLordBebo/status/1706377083608293415/mediaViewer

Let's hear the pretzel-logic denial of why this diesn't mean what it means.
Anybody wants to take a stab at this?

@Onvacation, your take?

RWSGFY says

You do realize that by posting that map you basically agreed withe premise that the whole SCHMO is nothing but a landgrab?

No, it means that Russia will do what it needed to do to stop the Black Sea from becoming a NATO pond. Russia took Crimea in 2014 to prevent a NATO naval base at Sevastopol, and if the war continues with Ukraine leaning further toward NATO, the Russians will take the coast to prevent a NATO base at Odessa.

RWSGFY says

your take?

Good!

But where will corrupt politicians get their bribes from?

HeadSet says

No, it means that Russia will do what it needed to do to stop the Black Sea from becoming a NATO pond. Russia took Crimea in 2014 to prevent a NATO naval base at Sevastopol, and if the war continues with Ukraine leaning further toward NATO, the Russians will take the coast to prevent a NATO base at Odessa.

Russia is struggling to hang onto the bits of stolen Ukrainian land they have now. Russia's navy in the Black Sea is in absolute shambles.

How the heck do you think Russia could muster the forces and weapons to take Odessa?

socal2 says

Russia's navy in the Black Sea is in absolute shambles.

So what? Navies don't fight land wars.

iwog2 says

socal2 says

Russia's navy in the Black Sea is in absolute shambles.

So what? Navies don't fight land wars.

Their army apparently doesn't either. Or at least seems to be getting their asses handed to them by a lesser opponent. This would be like the US going into Chad and getting our asses handed to us. A basically land locked country, though we don't even share a border. I don't care who is rooting for who, but Russia looks like shit in this. Undeniable. No different than us in Iraq or Afghanistan.

WookieMan says

Their army apparently doesn't either. Or at least seems to be getting their asses handed to them by a lesser opponent.

Or like the US going into Afghanistan, spending 20 years there, getting the asses handed to them, only to finally abandon the country in a hurry, abandoning 80 billion dollars of equipment there to have China and Russia to buy that and generally just totally fuck up

But THIS war will be different!!!!

We have to win one of the fucking things eventually! If we just keep doing this over and over again eventually well luck out....

WookieMan says

Their [Russia's] army apparently doesn't either. Or at least seems to be getting their asses handed to them by a lesser opponent.

The US is not a lesser opponent. If the US had never been involved in Ukraine we would not be at war with Russia.

Anybody else remember Hillary beating the war drums against Russia before she lost to Trump in 2016?

WookieMan says

Russia looks like shit in this. Undeniable. No different than us in Iraq or Afghanistan.

The US military defeated the Iraqi and Afghanistan defenses and got control of those 2 countries (half a world away) in less than a month. The US military failed at keeping the crazy Muslims from killing each other and finally gave up.

Russia's failure is a totally different universe. Russia lost more men and material in 30 days than the US lost in both wars over 20 years. And Ukraine is right next fucking door with supposedly a bunch of pro-Russian sympathizers.

The US was having to support combat posts in Afghanistan that might as well been on the moon as they were so remote and difficult to access.

socal2 says

Russia's failure is a totally different universe. Russia lost more men and material in 30 days than the US lost in both wars over 20 years.

Well, of course, the US just bombs infrastructure from the air. One tactic of the US military in the Iraq war was to blow up sewage treatment and water plants, they also wouldn't allow the use of chlorine in the water to encourage disease outbreaks.

The confessions keep on flowing:

An official in the Ukrainian region which Moscow claims to have annexed has said Russia should try to take territory that was formerly part of the Russian Empire "through the might" of weapons.

In September 2022, Zaporizhzhia was one of four Ukrainian regions that Vladimir Putin claimed to have annexed, the others being Kherson, Luhansk and Donetsk, although Moscow does not fully control any of them.

But the top Kremlin-installed official in the oblast, Yevgeny Balitsky, said Russia should also have its eye on the Baltic states, as well as Poland and Finland, all five of which are NATO countries.

...

In the interview shared by Russia watcher Julia Davis, Balitsky seemed ready to take on the alliance as he spoke of how the Russian Empire that ended with the 1917 revolution had "lost its footing" as well as "great numbers of people."

"I'm not even talking about territories. I understand that it includes Warsaw, Helsinki, also known as Helsingfors," he said.

The Russian Empire, which existed between 1721 and 1917, covered a vast territory. Finland was part of Russia's empire until it declared its independence after the Russian Revolution. The 1918 Treaty of Brest-Litovsk saw revolutionary Russia renounce its claims on Polish territories.

Balitsky described how "all of the Baltics" were "all our lands, and our people live there," noting the Russian-speaking population in those countries.

"They were turned into a voiceless heard, they became trembling beasts," he said. "We have to correct this...through the might of Russian weapons.

"I don't believe in any diplomacy in this instance. Of course diplomacy always has to be present but I believe we can get it back only with the might of Russian weapons."

He said that Russia can "get our people back, the former subjects of the Russian Empire"

So, here we have it: Dumb Ass is more valuable than Kursk. What more evidence is needed that the whole point of starting the war was to grab some foreign land, not "defend some people from some Nazis"? Here, your own people are killed, raped, pillaged and turned into lampshades by horrible, HORRIBLE bloodthirsty Nazis for 3 weeks already and all you do is increase attacks on some tiny town in some foreign land?



And why the fuck have they provoked these horrible Nazis in the first place? Everybody was aware how real and extremely dangerous these Nazis were, but noooooo, the idiots just had to go ahead and poke that badger!!!!

Ukies invade Kursk? OK. Let's resurrect the ghosts of Napoleon and Hitler to advise against the futility of invading Russia.