patrick.net

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They have to invade since there is not enough political support for Taiwan to become another Hong Kong and be somewhat swallowed by the Chicoms ?

But I understand as far as timing as the longer they wait, the more difficult it will be. I wonder how much MANPADS and MANPATS have been sent to Taiwan ? Look at how effective they were with the Ukraine military fighting Russia in central Ukraine during the first two months of the war, like the FGM-148 Javelin.

Russia waited about 8 years after it took Crimea to start war with Ukraine, and their invasion failed as far as sending in tanks and troops to the region east of Kiev. The Kremlin doesn't even have that much sentiment and support from Ukrainians in Poltava.

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Not an issue anyway.

Ukraine's fantastic performance in its summer counter-offensive has shown the world that it will soon conquer Russia and thus seize Russian nukes to be able to defend Taiwan, right?

PumpingRedheads says

Not an issue anyway.

Ukraine's fantastic performance in its summer counter-offensive has shown the world that it will soon conquer Russia and thus seize Russian nukes to be able to defend Taiwan, right?

Nope, it's the opposite: the waffling and dithering on military aid to Ukraine by our glorious Potato is what causes Chyna to get hopeful again.

i seriously think all this fearmongering is bullshit. china won’t invade taiwan. all we get is sales pitches to spend on war complex under constant stream of fear by propaganda fags.

ad says

But I understand as far as timing as the longer they wait, the more difficult it will be. I wonder how much MANPADS and MANPATS have been sent to Taiwan ? Look at how effective they were with the Ukraine military fighting Russia in central Ukraine during the first two months of the war, like the FGM-148 Javelin.

It's a bit of a myth: while these things were helpful, most of heavy lifting was done by the old Soviet artillery and IAD.

The guy in the video brings an interesting point wrt "Dunkirk in reverse" type of offensive, when instead of big landing ships, vulnerable to torpedos and AShMs they can use a "mosquito landing fleet", basically commandeering thousands of fishing boats each carrying a platoon. This would circumwent the lack of good landing beaches, the presense of the USN submarines in the strait and the AShM batteries on the shore.

Taiwan will probably be given huge economic incentives to rejoin China, which they’ll eventually accept. No one wants to be the US’ next proxy pig after watching Ukraine wipe out their young men and lose anyway. Better luck next time, neocons.

goofus says

Taiwan will probably be given huge economic incentives to rejoin China, which they’ll eventually accept.

You mean, like HK did? How's that working for them? How'd losing Taiwan semiconductor capabilities work for us?

goofus says

after watching Ukraine wipe out their young men and lose anyway.

Is this a prediction? Please add some timeline and contribute to the the predictions thread.

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

i seriously think all this fearmongering is bullshit.

That's what she said.

"Conventional wisdom in the West has long been that Vladimir Putin was an imperialist and he was determined to conquer Ukraine and make it part of a Greater Russia. There is NO evidence to support that."-- John Mearsheimer in an interview with Chinese Communist Party controlled media outlet CGTN on February 23rd, 2022.

Eric Holder says

goofus says

Taiwan will probably be given huge economic incentives to rejoin China, which they’ll eventually accept.

You mean, like HK did? How's that working for them? How'd losing Taiwan semiconductor capabilities would work for us?

Hong Kong was a British protectorate, then semi-autonomous with Chinese encroachment. Their outcome was pre-ordained. Taiwan, with our military backing, was a different story, but our standing has shrunk incredibly during Biden’s tenure. The failures in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, and now Ukraine ensure that no one wants to be our boots on the ground. Though Ukraine was nice for money laundering while it lasted.

Losing Taiwan’s semi-conductors would be akin to losing the other thousands of US producers to China. Perhaps we’ll finally locate key manufacturing within our borders again.

goofus says

after watching Ukraine wipe out their young men and lose anyway.

Is this a prediction? Please add some timeline and contribute to the the predictions thread.

The timeline, and our cruel funding of that proxy war, has lasted too long as is. However, the month our funding goes to nil is the month Ukraine concedes. Hopefully under Speaker Johnson this will be the case (the latest spending package had no pork for Ukraine).

What do Ukrainians gain from press ganging their 16-65 year olds (and since last summer, young women), while Zelensky meets with Larry Fink to promise BlackRock Ukrainian land (following “victory” of course).

Remember, these war debts are not gifts, Z assures us; they will be paid with Ukrainian resources.

goofus says

Hong Kong was a British protectorate, then semi-autonomous with Chinese encroachment. Their outcome was pre-ordained. Taiwan, with our military backing, was a different story, but our standing has shrunk incredibly during Biden’s tenure.

Thanks for the history lesson (not that it was neccessary). But this doesn't answer the question about how being gobbled up by Chyna would work differently for Taiwan then it's working now for HK. The answer is obvious, though: it won't be any diffent. So now that there is no doubt of how is it going to end, do you reallly think Taiwan's population would fall for it even in exchange for some "financial insentives" (which can be easily taken away once Taiwan is just another province of Communist China)? As for shrinking of our standing under dithering Biden - this is exactly the point made in the video and exactly the reason Chyna might get adventurous soon. (You didn't watch it, did ya?)

goofus says

The timeline, and our cruel funding of that proxy war, has lasted too long as is.

So no timeline? Lame. I had such high hopes for your predictive powers.

Is it really going so badly for Hong Kong? Far better than for Ukraine. I’m sure Taiwan is taking lessons. Would they like to fight “to the last Taiwanese” too, like Ukraine’s suicide missions?