patrick.net

Eman says

Maybe you guys see something I don’t.

Maybe it has changed, but the average person lives in the same home 7 years. Let's say it's 9 years now. So you've put panels up, barely paid them off. You move. I think it's a negative when selling too. They're ugly. You have to have a flat roof home to mostly hide them and I ain't dealing with that. If you have a large roof, then electric should be of no concern as you likely have $$$.

As far as having a Tesla, especially in CA. They WILL tax you based on your registration at some point in the future. It's not about energy, it's about the roads and maintaining infrastructure. It's not a matter of if, it's when. You're registration could go up to $1k/yr or hell higher. EV's not paying into the system will be taxed at some point and that point is coming sooner than later. Or you'll be blowing out tires and suspensions on crap roads.

Either way, solar and EV's are a trap. How many power plants have they shut down even with all this solar production and car charging? Likely none. They, utilities or government will come for you non-electric usage with solar or usage with EV's. If say 30% of people get into EV's, that's a massive drop in MFT (motor fuel tax) funds. A day of reckoning is coming for the greenies. Roads didn't get built by EV's and they won't last with EV's on them.

Wookie,

I’ve been in the same house for 20 years. My sister has been in the same house for 19. Brothers have been in their house for 13 and 14 years. We’re not the “move and 7 years” typical Americans. I did move after 7 years on the first house though.

It’s $60k. We’ll make it back in 2 months if we change our mind. It’s not a big deal.

We drive EV b/c they’re fun to drive. Trap or not, it doesn’t matter. If we have to get rid of te cars and switch back to ICE vehicles, we’ll do it. It doesn’t matter.

If we have to pay higher registrations, it is what it is. It doesn’t matter. Have to pay to keep up the roads one way or another. We’re only on this earth for a brief period of time. Enjoy life and have fun.

Eman says

Great question. Research shows that Tesla battery degrades at around 1% per year and it flattens out after 10-20% so the capacity should still be around 80-90%.

Solar panels are guaranteed to have 92% capacity after 25 years. That’s 8% degradation. They have a system installed to monitor the solar panel efficiency. If any panel degrades more than that, they’ll replace it for free as part of the 25-year warranty.

From the battery size perspective, the Cybertruck is a great deal. Backing out the numbers, the Cybertruck will likely have a 175 kWh battery pack for 500-mile range. This is equivalent to 13 powerwalls while each powerwall sells for $14k.

I'm not worried about capacity. In my hypothetical cost-saving thought experiment I'm assuming I can get ahold of 4 or more junkyard version-1 Nissan Leafs ("Leaves"?) whose batteries have gone from 85 mile range to 40 mile range because they were daily commuters for 10 years. So, with these degraded batteries, if I managed to feed 10 kWh into them by 4 PM one sunny afternoon will I be able to get 8 kWh out of them by 8 AM the next morning? Clearly, the batters can take in that much energy and still not register as "full," but I'm concerned that only 1/2 the amount of energy that gets fed in actually is able to be used as usable output by my home. I could double my solar panel count, feed 20 kWh into them and be assured I can get out 10 kWh, but now I have no savings simply because I have had to spend 2x on the solar panels.

The same efficiency problem would plague EV owners, too, I suppose. We're told driving an EV is half the energy cost per mile than driving an efficient ICE car, but is that true after both have gone 150k miles? That ICE car is still probably giving 80% the MPG figure (and thus 80% range), but does an EV operating at 70% range also operate at 70% MPG-Equivalent?

Watch out Tesla charging went up to about $0.40/KWH in case if anyone is price cautious.

From: https://robertbryce.substack.com/p/the-energy-transition-isnt

Trollhole says

From: https://robertbryce.substack.com/p/the-energy-transition-isnt

HA HA!!!

@SunnyvaleCA,

My Tesla has 80k miles. The batter has degraded 10%. Sibling’s Tesla has 90k miles while her battery has degraded 6%. Wife’s Tesla is 1-year old. It has degraded less than 1%. Performance is still good. I’m not familiar with Leaf and other EV’s.

Blue says

Watch out Tesla charging went up to about $0.40/KWH in case if anyone is price cautious.

I’ve seen 48 and 56 cents during peak hours around the Bay Area superchargers. When we went to Sacramento recently, it was 30 cents on the weekend.

Off-peak at home is 25 cents. Peak is 56 cents. It was 12.6 cents off-peak when I started this journey in 2017. Will it be 50 cents by 2030? If history is any indication, the electricity rate will be higher. This is why I get solar with 2.99% financing for 12 years. Monthly payment is almost equivalent to monthly PG&E bill before the tax credit.

My Tesla has free supercharging for life so it hasn’t bothered me at the superchargers.

Trollhole says

From: https://robertbryce.substack.com/p/the-energy-transition-isnt

I don’t drive EV to save the planet. I don’t install solar due to global warming. I do them because the numbers work for me.

Blue says

Watch out Tesla charging went up to about $0.40/KWH in case if anyone is price cautious.

That's same or cheaper than home charging for most of California, but isn't so bad when gas is $5.

Eman says

SunnyvaleCA,

My Tesla has 80k miles. The batter has degraded 10%. Sibling’s Tesla has 90k miles while her battery has degraded 6%. Wife’s Tesla is 1-year old. It has degraded less than 1%. Performance is still good. I’m not familiar with Leaf and other EV’s.

Right, so it's unlikely that I can find a scrapped Tesla or buy someone's 10-year-old Tesla for $500.

On the other hand, the original Leaf had an advertised range of 73 miles and is now 12 years old. See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nissan_Leaf. Plenty of people were driving them to near exhaustion 5 days a week as a commuter car. Those Leaves (Leafs?) suffered battery range degradation a bit more quickly do to the repeated full-discharge. Plus, if your round trip was 60 miles, you didn't have much range to spare! So, Leaves with seriously depleted range (down 20% to 40%) are easy to pick up really cheap. Even at 40% depletion that's 24 kWh * (1-40%) = 14.4 kWh of capacity.

So, it's good to know I won't be getting any of EMan's Tesla batteries for $500 anytime soon. But, I can probably round up a bunch of 40% off Leaf batteries for cheap. The question is (and I feel like this is the 3rd time asking): Does a car battery whose capacity is significantly depleted also suffer a similar drop in charge/discharge efficiency. i.e.: If I put 12 kWh into the battery will I get 10 kWh out or maybe only 5 kWh out? If it's 5 kWh out, then I'd have to buy 2x as many solar cells because I'd need to put 24 kWh in to run my house for the next day. The capacity of the batteries isn't the problem if they are really cheap; but poor efficiency is costly because it means I need to buy more solar panels.

From the wiki article cited in this post above: "In 2011, Nissan estimated that the battery would have a lifetime of at least 10 years, with 80% usable capacity remaining after five years." So, yeah, 60% capacity after 10 is a reasonable expectation.

Leaf battery degradation I thought was common knowledge. What I don't know if if you can buy a leaf cheap enough for it to be worth fixing. Like get a second leaf battery cheap used a just use the good cells left to swap into your existing leaf battery to make it better.

I think internal resistance builds up over time as well; i.e., it takes more energy to bring the battery to the same charge because more energy is lost through resistance/heat rather than building up charge.

@SunnyvaleCA,

Maybe post your question on Quora and see if someone can help you out? A lot of knowledge folks on there.

Booger says

What I don't know if if you can buy a leaf cheap enough for it to be worth fixing.

In California, you can get a used Leaf for "free" if you are "income limited". That is, PG&E will give you $4k (if for instance, your family of four makes less than $150k and lives in San Mateo county) plus the feds will kick in a 30% tax credit if you a buy used EV from a dealer. Terms and conditions apply. YMMV.

EBGuy says

Booger says

What I don't know if if you can buy a leaf cheap enough for it to be worth fixing.

In California, you can get a used Leaf for "free" if you are "income limited". That is, PG&E will give you $4k (if for instance, your family of four makes less than $150k and lives in San Mateo county) plus the feds will kick in a 30% tax credit if you a buy used EV from a dealer. Terms and conditions apply. YMMV.

@EBGuy,

The catch is you have to buy the car from a dealer. No credit if you buy it from a 3rd party.

EBGuy says

Eman says

. It would cover my monthly electricity bill of $230/mo on average.

Looks like PG&E just upped summer rates to $.49/kwHr for above baseline usage during peak hours (4-9pm) summer months. Yikes. For the amount you use, it be insane not to get solar...

58.4 cents now for peak. That’s about a 20% increase? Off-peak is now 27.2 cents/kWh, about 10% increase?

Got mined installed and loving it. I wish I had it installed sooner.

Patrick says

Amazingly, the solar works even on cloudy and rainy days. I don’t have the knowledge to understand how it works, but it makes financial sense to have it installed for me.

Eman says

Amazingly, the solar works even on cloudy and rainy days.

You mean like in a "Better than nothing..." kind of way.

Eman says

Cost is $17.4K after tax incentives.

Incentives should be unconstitutional. Where's my $7,000 check?
Thanks to concepts like these high bar incentives(90% of the population are not in a position to lay out $17K to reap that reward) concepts like "reparations'"
are fair game. If not for this cockamamie, they would have been laughed down and ran out of town.

Eman says

Amazingly, the solar works even on cloudy and rainy days. I don’t have the knowledge to understand how it works, but it makes financial sense to have it installed for me.

Works to an extent in certain areas. I've researched it enough for my area. I'd have to live in the same house for 20 years to justify the cost for the weather we get. I'd contemplate the Tesla shingles/roof on the build, but I'm not doing panels. Maybe in the yard I guess by a garden so they're hidden mostly. I could actually get decent wind energy where I live. It's just fucking ugly like solar panels.

At some point it's pinching pennies to make other people money. It's a time frame thing. I'm not putting up 10's of thousand for solar if I'm not knowing if I'll stay a decade plus. That's your payoff period. 99% of people with solar are just paying it forward to the next owner and didn't save a dime.

Tenpoundbass says

Eman says

Amazingly, the solar works even on cloudy and rainy days.

You mean like in a "Better than nothing..." kind of way.

Not like that. I didn’t expect solar to work when the cloud covers the sun, but that’s not the case. What I’ve learned is that I still get 20% production when the cloud is thick and up to 60% production when the cloud is thin. Solar even gives production in the teens on rainy days. It’s just interesting. That’s all.

Tenpoundbass says

Eman says

Cost is $17.4K after tax incentives.

Incentives should be unconstitutional. Where's my $7,000 check?
Thanks to concepts like these high bar incentives(90% of the population are not in a position to lay out $17K to reap that reward) concepts like "reparations'"
are fair game. If not for this cockamamie, they would have been laughed down and ran out of town.

The incentives are there for everyone unconstitutional or not. Solar can be financed 100% through the solar company’s lender at 2.99%. No money out of pocket. So rather than paying PG&E, we pay the bank. It’s like a fixed mortgage where our electricity cost doesn’t go up every year.

Once the loan is paid off, it’s practically free electricity for the remaining life of the solar, which is guaranteed for 25 years with at least 92% production. 8% degradation in 25 years is not bad at all. This was why I over-designed the solar system by 10% to account for degradation.

Wookie,

Everyone’s situation is different. No one size fits all. In general, I make decisions based on numbers while others make theirs with emotions and/or aesthetics.

I remember having a convo with my former coworkers how 401k contributions won’t be enough to give us a comfortable life when we retire. It’s live less now so we can live less later. My goal is to make more now so we can spend more and save more; then we can live more later. This has set me on the right path to never look back.

I still get together with my former coworkers occasionally. They’re all slaving away while I can drop their annual salary on a car at anytime I want. THIS is the life I have always dreamed, achieved and enjoying now. I love America.

.

from Ten Global Trends

Every Smart Person Should Know by Ronald Bailey and Marian L. Tupy.

The economics and market share of solar energy continue to improve dramatically:
 
"The prices of silicon solar photovoltaic cells will continue their steep exponential decline, according to the New Energy Outlook 2018 report from Bloomberg's New Energy Finance (BNEF) group. According to the BNEF, the average price of silicon photovoltaic (PV) cells fell from $76 per watt in 1977 to $4 per watt in 2008, a drop of nearly 95 percent. Since 2008, the price of PVs has fallen to $0.24 per watt, another drop of nearly 95 percent. That downward trajectory tracks technological improvements in the efficiency of solar cells, as well as increasing economies of scale. With regard to the latter, solar cell prices seem to be following Swanson's law, named for Richard Swanson, the founder of U.S. solar-cell manufacturer Sun Power. Swanson suggests that the cost of PV cells falls by 20 percent with each doubling of global manufacturing capacity. The pattern is a product of constantly improving manufacturing processes: more automation, better quality control, materials reduction, and so forth. As of 2018, BNEF reports that global wind and solar developers had installed their first trillion watts of power-generation capacity, and it projects that the next trillion watts in renewable generation will be completed within the next five years. In 2016, total world electric power-generation capacity stood at 6.2 trillion watts.

A conventional crystalline silicon solar cell (as of 2005). Electrical contacts made from busbars (the larger silver-colored strips) and fingers (the smaller ones) are printed on the silicon wafer.

"As the result of ever-falling costs, the Bloomberg analysts project that by 2050, wind and solar technologies will generate a most 50 percent of total electricity globally, with hydropower, nuclear power, and other renewables pushing total zero-carbon electricity up to 71 percent.

.

AD says

As the result of ever-falling costs, the Bloomberg analysts project that by 2050, wind and solar technologies will generate a most 50 percent of total electricity globally,

What a load of shit.

True cost of solar is way higher than just the cells.

That is why states that mandate solar have the highest electricity costs. And why China and India are building coal plants way more than solar.

Stealing with Solar: The Great Net-Metering Heist

How Solar Panels Helped Wealthy Californians Pick The Pockets of Low-Income Families

Affluent households in California siphoned nearly $3.4 billion in 2021 from the pockets of low-income families through a government program called net metering. This program allows people with solar panels to get free electricity while forcing people who can’t afford them to pay all of the costs associated with maintaining the electric grid. What a steal!



https://energybadboys.substack.com/p/stealing-with-solar-the-net-metering

UkraineIsFucked says

Stealing with Solar: The Great Net-Metering Heist

How Solar Panels Helped Wealthy Californians Pick The Pockets of Low-Income Families

Affluent households in California siphoned nearly $3.4 billion in 2021 from the pockets of low-income families through a government program called net metering. This program allows people with solar panels to get free electricity while forcing people who can’t afford them to pay all of the costs associated with maintaining the electric grid. What a steal!



https://energybadboys.substack.com/p/stealing-with-solar-the-net-metering

Well, those Non-Solar Owners voted for this.

UkraineIsFucked says

This program allows people with solar panels to get free electricity while forcing people who can’t afford them to pay all of the costs associated with maintaining the electric grid. What a steal!

"people with solar panels to get free electricity" - not sure which city is getting it.
With or without, the rate is still based on the "rate plan" you choose is about $0.48 in most cities around in Bay Area, CA. With panels, bill get offset from the amount of outflow.

Blue says

"people with solar panels to get free electricity" - not sure which city is getting it.
With or without, the rate is still based on the "rate plan" you choose is about $0.48 in most cities around in Bay Area, CA. With panels, bill get offset from the amount of outflow.

Read the rest of the article.

I have done it in PA. Bought 12 200 watt panels. Hooked them up to ecoflow delta pro 3600 kw . I use it to heat or cool the house. Also as backup unit in case power goes. Independent system so don't have to follow any regulations. I put solar panel in front yard instead of roof.

Unit has limitations, it can accept only 6 panel in series, exploring to put 2 6 panel in parellell.

https://www.earthtechproducts.com/ecoflow-delta-pro-remote-ev-kit.html?gclid=Cj0KCQiA5fetBhC9ARIsAP1UMgGAefxtBfaXj8CSWP-XU9Kp05xldR2FBWcv947LRsOGvMEXfTsrbogaAvJDEALw_wcB

HeadSet says

Well, those Non-Solar Owners voted for this.

If I recall correctly a few years ago I learned that CA produces so much solar power they can't use it quickly enough so they PAY AZ and NV to take it off of their hands.

Yeah: https://www.marketplace.org/2016/06/09/excess-solar-power-ca-pay-arizona-take-it/

As a result, prices have gone negative, and the Arizona utility is actually being paid to take some of that power from its next-door neighbor.

- might just be AZ who knows.

“Solar panels are a large up-front investment, frequently costing between $10,000 and $20,000 even after lucrative federal subsidies, such as the Investment Tax Credit (ITC), are accounted for. The high cost of these systems creates a substantial barrier to entry for low- and medium-income households who might want to install them on the roofs of their homes.”

This is not correct based on my personal experience. The solar system can be financed 100%. $0 out of pocket. The monthly payments are less than the cost of electricity. It’s about half once we factored in the 30% tax credit.

This was why I said it makes financial sense for me. It’s like buying a house with 0% down. Your monthly payments are less than rent. Your monthly payments never go up. You also get the tax write-offs/deductions. In a decade or so, you own it free and clear. No more payments except the daily servicing fee of 37.6 cents/day, which will likely go up every year like property taxes.

NEM 2.0 was a gift. Sell electricity back to PG&E at retail prices during day time. That’s 56 cents/kWh during peak and 48 cents partial peak while buying it back at night for 27.2 cents.

With NEM 3.0, it’s 8 cents/kWh credit so powerwalls are a must, which makes less financial sense.

HeadSet says

UkraineIsFucked says

Stealing with Solar: The Great Net-Metering Heist

How Solar Panels Helped Wealthy Californians Pick The Pockets of Low-Income Families

Affluent households in California siphoned nearly $3.4 billion in 2021 from the pockets of low-income families through a government program called net metering. This program allows people with solar panels to get free electricity while forcing people who can’t afford them to pay all of the costs associated with maintaining the electric grid. What a steal!



https://energybadboys.substack.com/p/stealing-with-solar-the-net-metering

Well, those Non-Solar Owners voted for this.

I don’t believe the non-solar owners voted for it. California Public Utilities Commission is the one who voted for it.

Eman says

NEM 2.0 was a gift. Sell electricity back to PG&E at retail prices during day time. That’s 56 cents/kWh during peak and 48 cents partial peak while buying it back at night for 27.2 cents.

With NEM 3.0, it’s 8 cents/kWh credit so powerwalls are a must, which makes less financial sense.

Yup. Eventually, there will be NEM nothing. Just like for electric cars not paying their freight on the roads.

2023 set another record for EV sales in the United States. About 1.2 million vehicles, or 7.6% of all sales, were electric according to Kelley Blue Book.

Through November 2023 (the latest data available from the Energy Information Administration), electricity generation was down by 1.1%.

How is this possible? One word — efficiency. The magic of efficiency could and hopefully will continue this 20-year miracle of keeping electricity consumption flat even while we add lots of new loads, as there is so much more low hanging fruit to be picked. LEDs still need to finish their market domination, and heat pumps are only just getting started and will save oodles of energy for space and water heating and even clothes drying. Building codes are continuously improving, as are appliance standards, meaning our homes and buildings and everything that uses energy in them, are constantly becoming more efficient (with no compromise in performance).

This all adds up. With the 1% that electricity production declined in 2023, we could have added something like another 10 million EVs to the grid last year and our overall electricity use would still have remained the same.

How’s that for some good news? 🤔

https://cleantechnica.com/2024/02/02/the-us-added-1-2-million-evs-to-the-grid-last-year-electricity-use-went-down/

Eman says

This all adds up. With the 1% that electricity production declined in 2023, we could have added something like another 10 million EVs to the grid last year and our overall electricity use would still have remained the same.

How’s that for some good news? 🤔

It's EV Fluffing Bullshit, is what it is.

Tell that to the folks in California..where the bulk of EVs are sold. Electricity prices keep going up and up and up.

Oh, and it still doesn't address how EV drivers don't pay their freight by not paying gas taxes.