patrick.net

WTF does this have to do with Ukraine being totally fucked in the land war that matters?

Nothing.

Even Ukraine’s isolated successes only serve to emphasize the enormous disparity in capabilities. For example, when the AFU uses western missiles to attack Russian ships in drydock, this is only possible because Russia has a navy. The Russians, in contrast, have a wide arsenal of anti-ship missiles that they are not using, because Ukraine does not have a navy. While the spectacle of a successful hit on a Russian vessel makes for nice PR, it only reveals the asymmetry in assets and does nothing to ameliorate Ukraine’s fundamental problem, which is the steady attrition and destruction of its ground forces in the Donbas.

https://bigserge.substack.com/p/russo-ukrainian-war-the-reckoning

In the third century, during China’s Three Kingdoms era (after the Han Dynasty broke apart into a trifurcated state in the early 200’s), there was a famous general and official named Sima Yi. While not as oft quoted as the better known Sun Tzu, Sima Yi has one pithy aphorism attributed to him which is better than anything in the Art of War. Sima Yi put the essence of warmaking the following way:

In military affairs there are five essential points. If able to attack, you must attack. If not able to attack, you must defend. If not able to defend, you must flee. The remaining two points entail only surrender or death.

Ukraine is working its way down the list. The events of the summer demonstrated that it cannot successfully attack strongly held Russian positions. Events in Avdivvka and elsewhere now test whether they can defend their position in the Donbas against rising Russian force generation. If they fail this test, it will be time to flee, surrender, or die. Such is the way of things when the time for reckoning comes.

https://bigserge.substack.com/p/russo-ukrainian-war-the-reckoning

PumpingRedheads says

Ukraine is working its way down the list. The events of the summer demonstrated that it cannot successfully attack strongly held Russian positions. Events in Avdivvka and elsewhere now test whether they can defend their position in the Donbas against rising Russian force generation. If they fail this test, it will be time to flee, surrender, or die. Such is the way of things when the time for reckoning comes.

I read that US and Russian officials met (in Pakistan?) recently. I wonder if some deal was worked out as far as winding down the war.

Perhaps let Russia occupy Donbas and let it have Crimea as part of that deal.

And bring in UN observers for Donbas, as well as not let Ukraine join NATO but allow them to keep their military.

Xi and Biden may be discussing the terms of this as well, and I can see Biden wanting this going into the election year.

.

Zeihan's take: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=vJfDKlnWYuA

ad says

Perhaps let Russia occupy Donbas and let it have Crimea

Don't they already own Donbas and Crimea?

PumpingRedheads says

WTF does this have to do with Ukraine being totally fucked in the land war that matters?

The Russian Navy can no longer target or threaten Ukrainian exports since Ukraine forced Russia to abandon its major Crimean Naval bases.

Ukraine doesn't have an economy if it can't export its grain through the Black Sea.

So kind of a big deal.

PumpingRedheads says

WTF does this have to do with Ukraine being totally fucked in the land war that matters?

Nothing.

Au contraire, my friend: at the start of the war ze Red fleet was used to
put pressure on the North-Eastern shore of the Black Sea to the point of some warships popping up within artillery range of Odessa and landing ships with marines onboard lurking just below horizon. That fixed lots of forces there. Not anymore. Then there was a blocade, which was partially releaved by so-called "grain deal" and there was constant pressure of Reds exiting it with "dire consequences for Ze Global South".Not anymore: the moment came when their bluff was called, the Reds have withdrawn from the deal, but blocade was not restored, because they can't. And absent inspections which were happening under that deal one coukd suspect these grain ships are not coming to Ukie ports empty anymore. Then there are these missile barrages aimed to terrorize the civilian population - much of that was launched from vessels which aren't capable of doing it anymore, or ceased to exist. And lastly, the fate of Red Army in Dumb Ass very much depends on the health of their force in Crimea, supply routes it secures and aviation it hosts. That fleet was an integral part of Crimea defense. Not anymore. Andcwhen that bridge falls somebody would wish for more landing ships to paper them over.... Alas, most of them are gone. What is the word for constantly diminishing numbers and strength.... attrition? Nah, it can't be.

But hey, if achieving a somewhat stable front against an opponent you initially expected to roll in 3 days with an army supposedly capable of going against whole NATO iwhile your fleet is being turned into scrap is a victory, pop that Champaign.

It's just not a very common definition of victory, that's all.

NEWS OF THE WIERD: The Russian Ministry of Defense appointed a new commander for the missile cruiser Moskva, six months after it was sunk by Ukrainian forces.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1735345273419829400%0A%0ANEWS%20OF%20THE%20WIERD:%20The%20Russian%20Ministry%20of%20Defense%20appointed%20a%20new%20commander%20for%20the%20missile%20cruiser%20Moskva,%20six%20months%20after%20it%20was%20sunk%20by%20Ukrainian%20forces.

Aaaand another Ropucha-class large amph landing ship is going up in smoke:



How many of these left now, three?

CGI, clearly. Or something.

https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-air-force-destroys-russian-landing-ship-in-occupied-crimea/

"Earlier tonight, at around 3 a.m. local time, explosions were reported in the area of Feodosia. A ship with Iranian ammunition was reportedly blown up and a fire broke out in the port."

....

Any day now, Putin will crawl into Ukraine upon his knees begging to surrender. ROFL

RayAmerica says

Any day now, Putin will crawl into Ukraine upon his knees begging to surrender. ROFL

I don't think that's Socal's point. I don't like Ukraine, but Russia has been made to look like shit by this invasion on their own accord. That's 100% not a discussion or debate. Ukraine has 1/5th the GDP of Illinois for fucks sake. Russia is not winning to a country smaller than the state of IL and likely more corrupt.

Russia helped win WWII for the allies. How'd that work out long term? They failed. It's a failed culture. So is Ukraine. This will never change. These people are small dick morons that think they can just punch each other in the face and they won. They're dip shit losers. They have tiny chunks of farmable land and then frozen crap. Russia has some resources that they're too retarded to get out of the ground without Western help. Both countries are anal cunt.

this is like iraq war, except we use ukrainians to die for us. kinda fucked up.

WookieMan says

Russia is not winning to a country smaller than the state of IL and likely more corrupt.

You are sooooo uninformed if you have deduced that Russia is solely up against Ukraine's military budget alone.

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

this is like iraq war, except we use ukrainians to die for us. kinda fucked up.

Don't disagree with that. I get European money and US money and weapons for the war, but Ukraine is a $200B economy GDP wise. Russia is almost $1.8T GDP. At no point in this conflict does Russia look strong. We need to dump any funding and focus 100% of energy towards China and getting our house in order and not relying on that shit hole.

Russia is a paper tiger and this conflict is going to eat them up long term. If killing people is defined as winning a war, Russia will and already did. That's never what it was about. Russia is not a threat to anyone globally and we know this definitively now. It's likely their nukes don't work. A test of a nuke is a massively different situation. You're not under enemy fire or incoming nukes against you. They don't work without extensive planning.

Tenpoundbass says

You are sooooo uninformed if you have deduced that Russia is solely up against Ukraine's military budget alone.

Fully aware of the situation just like Col. Mc dip shit Gregor. I know money and weapons are being pumped in. Russia is a $1,800,000,000,000 economy. Larger population. Fighting a land neighbor. They're winning. But a dip shit, corrupt force with foreign $$$ is stopping what is supposed to be a juggernaut. That's fact.

WookieMan says

Ukraine has 1/5th the GDP of Illinois for fucks sake

And they're backed by the most powerful nation (for now) in the world with all of the surveillance and intelligence assets we have
WookieMan says

These people are small dick morons that think they can just punch each other in the face and they won

OK

WookieMan says

If killing people is defined as winning a war, Russia will and already did. That's never what it was about.

What do you think it's about?
WookieMan says

Russia is not a threat to anyone globally

Except the globalists.

Onvacation says

WookieMan says

Ukraine has 1/5th the GDP of Illinois for fucks sake

And they're backed by the most powerful nation (for now) in the world with all of the surveillance and intelligence assets we have

IL could fleece me of my tax money and hold back Russia. My point is Russia is a massive pussy. They will win. Do not conflate what I'm saying. Russia can't act like they're some fucking boss, will win, but are 100% looking like absolute shit in a San Fransisco street.

We controlled the vast majority of Iraq and Afghanistan in months with less lives lost in the war so far. I didn't agree with those wars. BUT, we did it across a god damn planet with ships and didn't have the benefit of a land border. This is like Texas invading the Southern portion of Arkansas and Arkansas is holding their ground. I don't care how much backing/fraud Ukraine gets, they have conceded nothing. And yes, they will lose.

WookieMan says

This is like Texas invading the Southern portion of Arkansas and Arkansas is holding their ground. I don't care how much backing/fraud Ukraine gets, they have conceded nothing. And yes, they will lose.

Yep - it has been a total and complete disaster for both Russia and Ukraine.

Russia's military incompetence, corruption and brutality has been exposed for the entire world to see, costing Russia hundreds of thousands of casualties and uniting the EU and NATO like never before. America has been able to put old munitions to good use and watch from the sidelines as modern warfare evolves with drones and high precision artillery taking down Russia's meat wave attacks.

socal2 says

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WookieMan says

This is like Texas invading the Southern portion of Arkansas and Arkansas is holding their ground. I don't care how much backing/fraud Ukraine gets, they have conceded nothing. And yes, they will lose.

Yep

Wow! Wookie and Socal agreeing!

Yep, playing battleship. But there is always the nuclear option. Do you have a punch line for that?

Poke the bear, poke the bear. And find out.

Or maybe just stop poking the bear?

The bear lives half way around the world. Why do we insist on poking the bear?

The bear is mean. But poking the bear is mean too. Don’t poke the bear!

PeopleUnited says

Yep, playing battleship. But there is always the nuclear option. Do you have a punch line for that?

Yes, it's called MAD. Look it up. Worked wonders for decades.

Onvacation says

Wow! Wookie and Socal agreeing!

I think we agree on most things other than Tesla.

Not a punch line, more like a wish. The problem is in the assurance, there is no assurance with leadership as weak and people incompetent in control. Plus, the imaginary retaliation might already be compromised by sabotage, spies, or hackers and so there is no assurance of anything. That is just one of many reasons why you don’t poke the bear.

socal2 says

Onvacation says

Wow! Wookie and Socal agreeing!

I think we agree on most things other than Tesla.

I agree with most here. Sometimes I feel like it's an echo chamber. I don't think EV's are the future, so eat shit on that ;). I think Russia is not winning. It's obvious Ukraine won't win. I kind of feel like this is obvious. Pick your pony I suppose. Both nations are fucked because of this. I dislike Russia more if I'm picking a side. They're both corrupt as fuck and stupid people made stupid decisions. This will go on for another century/lifetime/infinity.

PeopleUnited says

The bear lives half way around the world. Why do we insist on poking the bear?

The bear is mean. But poking the bear is mean too. Don’t poke the bear!

Agree we shouldn't be involved. I think you got the animal wrong. The mouse. Don't poke the mouse.

The Russian Navy Sucks - Part 1
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D1eJT1Gffas

The Russian Navy Sucks - Part 2
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A9TkPUXLgTk

The Russian Navy Sucks - Part 3
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ogb_ydFTa4A&t=7s

The Russian Navy Sucks - Part 4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sPMt6SfVcVo

The Russian Navy Sucks - Part 5
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ucDZ2MxubeQ&t=2s

I would not completely discount the Russian military. They are not deploying the best of their forces.

I think because Putin figures he can drag out the war while using essentially just Reserve forces or the B-listers and not the A-listers.

WookieMan says

. I think you got the animal wrong. The mouse. Don't poke the mouse.

Well whatever animal you want to call them, their rockets have been giving our astronauts rides to and from the ISS ever since our fancy shuttle program was shuttered. (At least until Elon made his rockets available.) Elon and the Russians are better at rockets than the US government. So again, don’t poke the bear.

PeopleUnited says

WookieMan says

. I think you got the animal wrong. The mouse. Don't poke the mouse.

Well whatever animal you want to call them, their rockets have been giving our astronauts rides to and from the ISS ever since our fancy shuttle program was shuttered. (At least until Elon made his rockets available.) Elon and the Russians are better at rockets than the US government. So again, don’t poke the bear.

I don't know how to respond. Rockets are rockets. I'm glad our government stopped fucking around with them. Let Russia blow their money on it and we'll have private sector do the testing. I'm not seeing a problem here.

Russia is weak. It's 2024 almost. Launching a rocket has been trivial for 5 years. Musk has more launches than Russia by a long shot. I really don't get your point. I don't want my government spending money and running rocket launches. That's dumb.

ad says

They are not deploying the best of their forces.

The best of the Russian forces has been wiped out already.

WookieMan says

Rockets are rockets.

Yeah. It’s called rocket science. It not a trivial matter to blast a person into space and bring them safely home.

Any group/nation that can do that probably has some very competent engineers and other advanced technology, perhaps even expensive weaponry they are choosing not to waste in some border skirmish

For the most part they have been fighting and winning using Cold War era weapons even against more modern equipment and satellite/intelligence provided by the west.

Don’t mistake poor/corrupt leadership for incompetence or impotence. If that was the case the USA has nothing to boast about and is in great peril.

Russia's shitty performance in Ukraine is a great advertisement for the US leaving NATO.

With WW2 equipment and crosseyed, the material and manpower difference should have seen the Russians in Kiev in a week.

WookieMan says

PeopleUnited says

The bear lives half way around the world. Why do we insist on poking the bear?

The bear is mean. But poking the bear is mean too. Don’t poke the bear!

Agree we shouldn't be involved. I think you got the animal wrong. The mouse. Don't poke the mouse.

Russia Defense Spend 2023: $100 Bn (previous to War, <$60Bn)
USA Defense Spend 2023: $817 Bn!!!

rocketjoe79 says

WookieMan says

PeopleUnited says

The bear lives half way around the world. Why do we insist on poking the bear?

The bear is mean. But poking the bear is mean too. Don’t poke the bear!

Agree we shouldn't be involved. I think you got the animal wrong. The mouse. Don't poke the mouse.

Russia Defense Spend 2023: $100 Bn (previous to War, <$60Bn)
USA Defense Spend 2023: $817 Bn!!!

And? That's our defense budget and Russia's. Not getting the point?

We took out two nations in months and basically policed them for 2 decades and lost as many people as we did in Chicago over the same time period. Less actually. They were dumb wars, but we didn't lose them technically and they were across the globe. I don't know, I think almost $100B is more than $6B for Ukraine. My math could be wrong. By any metric both sides have lost waaaaay more than we did in Afghanistan or Iraq combined. This is a war of losers and idiots.

Comparing the budget numbers just means we have more money? Is that a complaint? If Russia cannot beat a neighboring country with $6B in defense spending, they're a paper tiger by default. They're losing men and have no clue how to keep their natural resources running. I don't care about our funding as most of that is going to corrupt Ukrainian oligarchs. Not weapons.

And as woke as our military is becoming and growing smaller, without nukes, we'd destroy Russia in a conventional war. 100%. China can at least send a hot air balloon over here. Russia cannot demolish its neighbor with supposedly the 2nd strongest military on the planet.