patrick.net

You can still trust Lyshenkoism.

Silver consistently under-rated Trump's ability to win the nomination until the numbers made it almost impossible for anybody else to win;
He gave Hillary a 99% chance of winning Michigan against Bernie, he beat her by half a point (which illustrates how WAY off he was, Bernie should have lost handsomely);
Remember that Silver was providing the Predictions of a Hillary Blowout right up until Trump got so many electoral votes it was impossible to give her an advantage, pretty late on that Tuesday evening.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jun/29/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-nate-silver-poll-prediction

Virtually all the major vote forecasters, including Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight site, The New York Times Upshot and the Princeton Election Consortium, put Mrs. Clinton’s chances of winning in the 70 to 99 percent range.

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/10/technology/the-data-said-clinton-would-win-why-you-shouldnt-have-believed-it.html

Nate SIlver 2015-2016:
“I wonder how much of the Trump Bump is just voters trolling pollsters,” Two Good Reasons Not To Take the Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously — July 16, 2015.

“Basically Trump is the Nickelback of presidential candidates. Disliked by most, super popular with a few.” — July 28, 2015

“PREDICTION: Trump won’t be the Republican /nominee.” — Aug. 6, 2015

“Media: Trump’s doing great! Nerds: No. Those polls don’t mean what you think. Media: A new poll shows Trump doing great! Proved you wrong!” — Aug. 9, 2015

“Donald Trump is winning the polls and losing the nomination.” — Aug. 11, 2015

“About 25% of Americans identify as Republican. Donald Trump’s getting about 25% of that 25% in the polls. Why is this impressive to people?” — Nov. 19, 2015

“Dear media, Please stop freaking out about Donald Trump’s polls.” — Nov. 23, 2015.

“As for me, I remain quite skeptical of Trump’s chances. I also think his nomination would be an unmitigated catastrophe for Republicans.” — Nov. 29, 2015

“Idea that ‘Trump would win an election today’ also dubious. If election were today, voters would be more informed and news cycle different.” — Dec. 4, 2015

(in response to Rupert Murdoch tweeting that Trump’s “cross-party appeal” was a “winning strategy”): “Actually, Trump is by far the least popular Republican with independents (and Democrats)”— Jan. 15, 2016

“Wait it’s just now sinking in that Trump might be a wee bit problematic as a general election candidate?” — March 20, 2016

“Trump’s general elex numbers have been terrible since he launched bid. Media barely noticed during 2015 Trumpmania.” — March 29, 2016

“[Idea of Trump being presumptive nominee by mid-May] is delusional. Math doesn’t work.” — April 9, 2016

“The bad news for Trump is that a poll showing him 5 points down is considered good news for Trump.” — June 26, 2016

“Perhaps the worst take is the ‘Trump’s actually doing well to only be down by 7!!!’ take. He’s the least popular major-party nominee ever.” — Aug. 3, 2016

“Trump has been super unpopular with the November electorate pretty much forever.” — Aug. 16, 2016

“Trump is doubling down on a losing strategy.” — Aug. 18, 2016

“[The] most delusional part of Trump thinking he has a silent majority is how small a fraction of the population he’s even bothering to appeal to.” — Aug. 13, 2016

https://www.currentaffairs.org/2016/12/why-you-should-never-ever-listen-to-nate-silver

"I mean, if people are willing to vote for Trump despite January 6, are they really going to care about Stormy Daniels? If people cared that much about these criminal cases, would Trump be ahead in the Electoral College in the first place?"
-- Nate Silver

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

"I mean, if people are willing to vote for Trump despite January 6, are they really going to care about Stormy Daniels? If people cared that much about these criminal cases, would Trump be ahead in the Electoral College in the first place?"
-- Nate Silver

Nice gaslight, Nate. What you really should have said is "The people have seen through your phony Jan 6th hysterics and lies, and the obvious lawfare abuse using the justice department as Dem Party enforcers make people more inclined to vote for Trump."

HeadSet says

Nice gaslight, Nate. What you really should have said is "The people have seen through your phony Jan 6th hysterics and lies, and the obvious lawfare abuse using the justice department as Dem Party enforcers make people more inclined to vote for Trump."

That too.

The talking heads on Sunday morning confirmed my suspicion. RFK junior takes as much as 17% from Trump in polls, enough to give Biden an electoral landslide.

PeopleUnited says

The talking heads on Sunday morning confirmed my suspicion. RFK junior takes as much as 17% from Trump in polls, enough to give Biden an electoral landslide.

They stole the last election, I don't understand why people think they won't do it again?

Of course they will.

Trump isn't even that great, not even close, but he won't do precisely exactly what they want so they'll cheat in elections if they have to, they'll just kill him if they have to.

PeopleUnited says

The talking heads on Sunday morning confirmed my suspicion. RFK junior takes as much as 17% from Trump in polls, enough to give Biden an electoral landslide.

Don't fall for that. Thay phony poll result is to add credibility to for after Dominion transfers massive votes from Trump to RFK. The plan is to transfer enough votes from Trump to RFK in swing states so that Biden wins with a plurality. Putting out the word now that RFK is taking from Trump just allows the cheaters to say "RFK was a spoiler."

https://www.natesilver.net/p/joe-biden-should-drop-out

HeadSet says

Don't fall for that. Thay phony poll result is to add credibility to for after Dominion transfers massive votes from Trump to RFK.

I agree there is no way that RFK takes more from Trump than from Bidet. His VP pick alone puts off most Trump voters, not to mention his buy-in to the climate bullshit.