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A conceptual suggestion about the need for a U.S.-Russian alliance for confronting China, driven by Sullivan, has completely collapsed

The president of the Center for Global Studies "Strategy XXI", an expert on international security relations, Mykhailo Honchar, said, in a comment to Ukrinform, that the Biden administration’s reluctance to grant us permission to use American weapons inside the Russian Federation could have a background, which has not been recorded officially (although, perhaps, such documents do exist), but, rather, as a kind of an informal “Gentlemen's Agreement". These agreements date back to 2021, where there were certain contacts maintained between the intelligence chiefs of the Russian Federation and the USA - Naryshkin and Burns. Following that, in the fall of the same year, the U.S. began expressing concern about the risk of a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, Mr Honchar reminds.

The expert suggests that, at the time, the Americans probably told the Russians: "We know everything, we clearly see that you are planning this." To this the Russians probably replied, "Yes, we're really planning this and we're not even hiding it."

"This begs a question: why had the USA, knowing as early as 2021 that Russia was making preparations for an invasion, not taken any preventive actions? After all, they had been able to do so. For example, if a pair of American ships came on a friendly mission to the seaport of Odesa a few days before the invasion, the Russian Federation probably would not have dared [to invade]," Mykhailo Honchar believes.

Until 2022, NATO regularly deployed its forces across the Black Sea. But, in early 2022, NATO’s presence there was de facto nullified. NATO ships were no longer deployed to the Black Sea. This suggests, the expert goes on to note, that the United States, at that time, had its own perception about Russia’s potential invasion of Ukraine."Hypothetically, proceeding from the assumption that the USA needs a potent ally to confront China, and Russia could well become such an ally (the Russian Federation shares an extended border with China, exceeding 4,000 kilometers in length, making China an existential threat for the Russian Federation), the U.S. was, let’s say so, not completely opposed to an invasion, but on the condition that it is carried out in some hybrid way, Mr. Honchar notes further. The Russian side, perhaps, had convinced the American side that the invasion would not involve a bloody massacre. They probably said that their troops would quickly enter Kyiv, remove the "junta" and - that's it... Now let's recall the days before the invasion, where it was not yet known for sure on which day of February 2022 the invasion would begin. But then Western diplomats began to be evacuated from the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv..."

Mr. Honchar also mentioned an article published by "Ukrainska Pravda", headlined "The Three Longest Days of February...", which, in particular, describes a visit to Washington by Ukraine’s top diplomat, Dmytro Kuleba, on February 23, 2022.

"On that day, Biden began asking Kuleba questions about the situation in Ukraine, gave some advice and was talking about support. The rhetoric of this conversation was reminiscent of saying goodbye to a child with cancer, rather than encouraging and empowering an ally ahead of a life-or-death battle. That day, Biden said goodbye to all of Ukraine in the person of Mr. Kuleba ," the article read.

In that context, the expert recalls how initial shipments of American weapons began to arrive in Ukraine in December 2021.

"It was important what kind of weapons were arriving – FIM-92 Stinger MANPADS, FGM-148 Javelin ATGMs – that is, the weapons more suited for use in guerrilla warfare... Perhaps, there was a request or wish expressed by the Russian side that the shipments should not be too big and, most importantly, should not include kinetic attack capabilities so that it would not carry a risk of damage to the Russian Federation’s territory. Moscow then drew a red line for Washington. However, this, in fact, did not happen as expected... The Kyiv-in-three-days blitzkrieg had never succeeded. Accordingly, all unofficial plans or agreements that might have existed between the Americans and Russians had collapsed as new realities were arising."

But even after that, the USA was in no hurry to provide our country with more capable weapons, such as artillery guns, in particular, HIMARS MLRS.

"And it was only under the pressure from allies, other countries of the West, countries of Central Europe, especially the Baltic Sea countries, that the USA began to change its policies," says Mykhailo Honchar. They notified the Russians, apparently through shadow communication channels, that they had violated the agreements. Moscow can make everything public at any moment, indeed, but denials will be coming from Washington..."

The United States' anti-escalation strategy, which involved turning Russia from an adversary into an ally, has failed. But Washington, of course, will never admit this because it will mean that this current White House administration, the American intelligence services, have made a serious slip-up.

Mr. Honchar further notes that: "The U.S. current foreign and security policies are closely connected with the name of Sullivan, with his vision of the global world, and the need for an American-Russian alliance for confronting China. This, of course, wasn’t Sullivan who invented this design. It existed before him. It was popularized in the 1990s by the now-deceased American author, Tom Clancy. In the early 2000s, he released a political thriller novel, The Bear and the Dragon, which explores the need for a U.S.- Russian alliance for countering China’s potential invasion of Siberia. Be as it may, such a concept is wrong. It is impossible to make Russia into a partner for America. The nature of the Russian Federation, of its ruling regimes (Putin's and all previous ones) with all of their authoritarian and totalitarian mechanisms is what brings the Russian Federation closer to China rather than to the United States. That is why the Sullivan-promoted strategy has failed. Does Sullivan personally understand this, or does Washington understand it? I think they do understand, but cannot admit it. Or they are not willing to. After all, it is not about the Russian Federation or China only. If we look at the US Middle East policy... It is also a failure. Iran has managed to create a whole network of its proxies, who now set the rules of the game in the region. Although this is another topic for another analysis,it reveals the overall failure of the Sullivan-Biden strategy, which has had very bad consequences for many of the US partners.

It’s almost like folks are starting to realize that, sooner or later, the Democrats are going to get us all killed with their gain of function science, shrinkflation, proxy warmongering, mandatory medicines, wide-open borders, no-bail policies, and defunding police. People are voting for self-interest issues far beyond their personal pocketbook problems.

On Wednesday, a squadron of Russian ships, including a frigate capable of firing hypersonic missiles will arrive in Cuba as part of an international partnership program. A nuclear-powered and capable submarine will also be making the trip, along with support vessels.

Apparently, the Biden escalation escalator goes all the way to the top floor. It’s not enough to keep poking the Russian Bear; like a deranged hobo lashing out at anyone who walks by, Biden also insists on prodding the Chinese Dragon. On Monday, Business Insider ran a story headlined, “The US military has a plan to turn the Taiwan Strait into an 'unmanned hellscape' if China invades, top admiral says.”