patrick.net

Russian blog (g-translated):

Putin said that by 2030 Russia would supply China with at least 98 billion cubic meters of gas and 100 million tons of LNG. Putting aside the question that Russia's dependence on oil and gas remains a key problem. ... The declared volumes are 236 billion cubic meters of gas in terms of a single volume. For 9 years. That is, the average volume of supplies will be 26 billion cubic meters per year. Solid.

You need to understand that the lost European market gave sales volumes of about 150 billion cubic meters per year, of which about 30 are left with the prospect of losing another 20 billion in the next couple of years. Loss - 120 billion a year with a prospect of 140 billion.

https://el-murid.livejournal.com/5293170.html

Polish pipeline operator seeks €1.3 billion from Russia’s Gazprom for ending supplies

MAY 19, 2023

The owner of the Polish section of the Yamal gas pipeline, EuRoPol Gaz, is seeking over 6 billion zloty (€1.3 billion) compensation from Gazprom for losses accrued due to the Russian state energy giant halting gas deliveries last year.

The news that EuRoPol Gaz has filed a claim at the Arbitration Institute of the Stockholm Chamber of Commerce was reported by Business Insider Polska yesterday and later confirmed by state assets minister Jacek Sasin.

The firm is demanding repayment of 848 million zloty of gas transmission fees from 2006 to 2009 redeemed to Gazprom in 2010 on the condition that the Russian operator would transmit gas until 2045 and that the Polish company would make money on these transmissions.

In addition, EuRoPol Gaz estimates around 5.4 billion zloty in revenue from gas transmission charges by 2045 lost due to Gazprom halting gas shipments to Poland in April last year following Warsaw’s refusal to pay for the fuel in roubles.

Documents seen by the Polish Press Agency (PAP) show that EuRoPol Gaz called on Gazprom at the end of April to pay the claimed amounts. After the Russian firm refused, EuRoPol Gaz applied for arbitration on 9 May. Gazprom has not yet publicly commented.

...

In a previous dispute, in 2020 the Stockholm arbitration tribunal ordered Gazprom to pay PGNiG, a Polish state gas firm, 6 billion zloty for charging it prices for gas that did not reflect the realities of the market.
..

https://notesfrompoland.com/2023/05/19/polish-pipeline-operator-seeks-e1-3-billion-from-russias-gazprom-for-ending-supplies/

Ah, if only there was an underwater pipeline somewhere that could conveniently burst in a timely matter creating force majeure cituation thus saving Gazprom from this kind of claims.... Alas, the pipeline to Poland is on land.

LNG deal: GAIL seeks damages from Gazprom

Synopsis

GAIL India is seeking compensation from Gazprom Marketing and Trading Singapore after the latter reneged on a commitment to supply fully contracted liquified natural gas (LNG) last year. GAIL Chairman SK Gupta has said the company has filed for arbitration in London, stating, “We have nominated our arbitrator. We are pressing for specific performance (of the contract) and to claim damages”. Though supplies have resumed with GAIL eceiving the contracted quantity, it has decided to pursue legal action.

Read more at:
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/energy/oil-gas/lng-deal-gail-seeks-damages-from-gazprom/articleshow/100367941.cms

Gas exports from Russia fell back to 1985 levels - Moscow Times

In order to somehow compensate for the losses, Gazprom decided to raise tariffs within the country.

Due to the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation into Ukraine, the Russian gas monopolist Gazprom lost the largest foreign market for its supplies, which before the war provided 80% of exports and two-thirds of Gazprom's revenue. In this way, the Russian gas monopoly has rolled back almost four decades into the past, writes the Moscow Times.

This is what happens when you're cosplaying Hitler in Czechoslovakia circa 1938 but Czechoslovakia refuses to fold this time.

Not that USSR in 1985 was in such a great shape either.

Gazprom, once a dominant player in the global gas market, faces a stark reality as it grapples with the consequences of Russia’s geopolitical maneuvers. The Russian gas monopoly’s attempt to leverage energy supplies in the Ukraine conflict has backfired, resulting in a severe contraction of its export market and financial stability.

In a dramatic setback, Gazprom’s gas exports have plunged to their lowest level since 1985, reaching only 69 billion cubic meters in 2023. This represents a drastic reduction from the 185 billion cubic meters exported in the pre-war period of 2021 and a significant drop from the already troubling figures of 2022, which amounted to 100.9 billion cubic metres. The company’s European market, which previously accounted for 80% of its exports and two-thirds of its revenue, has dwindled to a fraction of its former volume.

Europe’s shift away from Russian gas, a reaction to the Ukraine conflict, has left Gazprom with a diminished presence in its most lucrative market. Its exports to Europe have regressed to levels last seen in the 1970s, starkly contrasting with the heights reached in previous decades. Despite efforts to pivot towards China, the gains made through the Power of Siberia pipeline are insufficient, covering merely an eighth of the lost European Union exports.

Gazprom’s hopes are now pinned on expanding its Chinese market, proposing a fivefold increase in sales. However, these ambitions face significant challenges. China’s demand for imported gas is expected to grow by only 80 billion cubic meters by 2030, with contracts already in place for supplies from other sources.

The impending expiration of Gazprom’s transit contract through Ukraine in 2024 further complicates the picture, potentially exacerbating the decline in European supplies. Experts like VEB chief economist Andrei Klepach are skeptical of Gazprom’s ability to recoup these massive losses, even with planned contracts with China.

Compounding these export challenges, Gazprom faces tough negotiations with China over the proposed Power of Siberia-2 pipeline. China’s insistence on heavy discounts and refusal to share construction costs puts additional strain on Gazprom’s already weakened financial position.

To mitigate these financial pressures, Russian authorities are resorting to significant domestic gas tariff hikes, further burdening its citizenry. Once newly proposed hikes are complete, the tariffs will have risen by 34% since the start of the war. These measures, however, may not suffice to offset the looming trillion-ruble losses anticipated by energy committee head Pavel Zavalny, as Gazprom navigates a landscape of shrinking exports and escalating costs.

Russian energy giant Gazprom said on May 2 it suffered a record annual loss last year as the European market was practically shut off to its gas exports due to sanctions over Moscow's military operation in Ukraine. The state-owned firm suffered a net loss of 629 billion rubles ($6.9 billion) in 2023 compared to a net profit of 1.23 trillion rubles in 2022.

And in other news

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-oil-gas-revenue-rise-despite-ukraine-attacks-2024-4?op=1

Oil profits increase for Putler.

personal

The most immediate impact of Gazprom's losses will be on Russian government revenues, a crucial metric to gauge Moscow’s ability to sustain its war against Ukraine. [...] Excluding dividends, Gazprom transferred at least $40 billion into Russian state coffers in 2022, either to the general government budget or the National Welfare Fund (NWF), Moscow's sovereign wealth fund.

This is no small feat. Until last year, Gazprom alone provided about 10 percent of Russian federal budget revenues through customs and excise duties as well as profit taxes. (Oil receipts usually account for an additional 30 percent of budget revenues.) This flood of money now looks like distant history. In 2023, the company's contribution to state coffers through customs and excise duties was slashed by four-fifths, and like many money-losing firms, it is due a tax refund from the Russian treasury.

richwicks says

Nothing indicates more that you are just an embarrassing mindless drone than to use the propaganda of our stupid propagandists.

It's true. Putin makes up for it in price.

Word is Grazprom is dumping oil into India like crazy for minimal profit, just to keep the bills paid.

China will fund Russia's war in the Ukraine. It makes strategic sense - let the US continue to waste resources on a never ending war.
Low oil price buys Russia India's friendship as well. So I don't think revenue really matters.
China and Russia seem are getting closer month by month.

AmericanKulak says

Word is Grazprom is dumping oil into India like crazy for minimal profit, just to keep the bills paid.

Gazprom sells oil?

HeadSet says

AmericanKulak says

Word is Grazprom is dumping oil into India like crazy for minimal profit, just to keep the bills paid.

Gazprom sells oil?

Yep, they have an oil subsidiary. Didn't save them from yuuuge losses though.

krc says

Low oil price buys Russia India's friendship as well. So I don't think revenue really matters.
China and Russia seem are getting closer month by month.

India and Russia are not oil/gas consumers like Europe and the US. It's a market for sure, but Russia offers little else to those two countries. Specifically food. India and China are massive population centers, with poor land for agriculture. They can't feed their own people and Russia can't sweep in and feed them.

You need to feed your people. Russia can just give them gas and oil. That helps, but China and India need to be allied with countries that can feed them. Russia ain't that. US, Canada, Mexico and most of Europe use double the gas/oil China and India use combined. Basically Russia is gonna have some difficulty staying afloat without Europe. Russia has no value add. So China and India will never be 100% in camp Russia.

WookieMan says

Russia can't sweep in and feed them.

India is trying to increase food exports to Russia, not the other way.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/indias-trade-delegation-in-russia-to-boost-farm-and-processed-food-exports-balance-imports-and-explore-fta-opportunities-indiarussiatrade-foodexports-fta-101682362338189.html

WookieMan says

"Russia offers little else to those two countries. Specifically food."

Actually Russia is the No 1 wheat producer on the planet.

Gazprom shares collapsed on the Moscow Exchange on Monday evening after it became known that the company would not pay dividends based on operating results in 2023.

Gazprom's stock sank by almost 6% and fell to 145.03 rubles - the lowest since October 2023. Against the backdrop of the decision of the Russian government, the largest shareholder of the gas monopoly, to prepare a directive on the refusal of payments, Gazprom’s capitalization decreased by 144 billion rubles, or almost $1.6 billion, in just over an hour.

Gazprom de facto has nothing to pay dividends with: last year, for the first time in 25 years, the company ended with a net loss, and its size - 629 billion rubles - became a record in three decades of its history. After the loss of the European market, Gazprom’s exports fell back to 1985 levels (69 billion cubic meters), and collapsed threefold relative to pre-war levels. Unable to sell gas, Gazprom was forced to freeze wells and in two years lost a quarter of production, the volume of which last year became the lowest in its history.

Having lost the gas war with Europe, Russian President Vladimir Putin is counting on China, offering it, in addition to the Power of Siberia pipeline, to build a second one - Power of Siberia-2 with a capacity of 50 billion cubic meters.

But Putin is unable to gain approval from Beijing, despite assurances of “friendship” and “strategic” partnership “without borders.” The Russian president's state visit to China last week was powerless to correct the situation. Putin did not receive a new contract, and Xi Jinping never mentioned Russian gas in official comments.

Even if Gazprom manages to agree with China on a new pipe, this will only worsen its financial position, MMI analysts write. Beijing does not want to invest a single yuan in the project, asking Russia to foot the multibillion-dollar construction bill on its own. Gazprom “will not have dividends for many, many years,” MMI warns: the company does not have enough operating cash flow to cover investment costs, and its debt burden is growing rapidly. Gazprom's net debt, that is, not covered by cash reserves, has reached 5.2 trillion rubles and already exceeds the size of the liquid part of the National Welfare Fund.

To have such a golden goose and to kill it over what - posession of ruins of some small towns along your Western border? 🤡

Kind of like what the US did for the banks for absolutely nothing but to preserve their ill gotten gains and absolve them of blame back in 2009.

The now German-nationalized gas contractor "Uniper" brought charges against Gazprom and won. The sentence requires that Russian Gazprom has to pay €13 billion compensation for not delivered natural gas. This sentence also cancels all ongoing contracts between Uniper and the Russian gas company.

Uniper has doubt that Gazprom will pay this bill and will likely write it off, but if Gazprom wants ever to make business in the Germany, their most lucrative market, they will not have choice than to foot the bill, plus interests. China will never be able to compensate, not even in the year 2035.

Russia's financial obligations are growing and growing without any hope that it will be reversed. In fact, it is painting an even bigger target on Putin's back. The war industry is only making things worse, since it produces products which are destroyed the very next month.

https://x.com/Tendar/status/1801166025611682158

Eric Holder says

Russia's financial obligations are growing and growing without any hope that it will be reversed. I

Don't have go to X to see Ukey propaganda bullshit like this. We have Ukey shills posting it right here on PatNet.

Acts of War are standard outs on contracts like this.

America blowing up the Nordstream pipeline is an Act of War. So are the sanctions.