patrick.net

just_passing_through says

Last night I heard some talking head say the bitcorn ETFs did more in 4 weeks than the gold ETFs did in 20 years.

Bitcoin hysteria or mania

everyone piling in as The Mooch (Anthony Scaramucci) said on Bloomberg TV that all fund managers will average about 3% of their total portfolio in Bitcoin efts like Blackrock or Fidelity

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AD says

everyone piling in as The Mooch (Anthony Scaramucci) said on Bloomberg TV that all fund managers will average about 3% of their total portfolio in Bitcoin efts like Blackrock or Fidelity

3% was discussed 4 years ago and if that happens the total market cap of bitcorn will be higher than the total market cap of gold. Four years ago it was BTC-1-Trillion, Gold-10-Trillion.

BTC should be back to about 1-Trillion right now.

We shall see if that happens in this run...

just_passing_through says

the total market cap of bitcorn

Market cap implies number of shares times price per share. Millions of bitcoins are probably lost forever and HODLER's are going to HODL.

One reason bitcoin is so expensive per share coin is because of an artificial scarcity of "coins" and an overabundance of gamblers.

Onvacation says

Market cap implies number of shares times price per share.

Correct

Onvacation says

Millions of bitcoins are probably lost forever

Not probably definitely

Onvacation says

overabundance of gamblers

Everything in life is a gamble

just_passing_through says

Everything in life is a gamble

No.

There are investments that take capital and labor and produce something useful.

Bitcoin consumes capital and labor in the hope that some greater fool will pay to keep the system going.

No product. No service. Just a resource suck.

Up another $5K since my last reply haha..

Onvacation says

just_passing_through says

Everything in life is a gamble

No.

There are investments that take capital and labor and produce something useful.

Bitcoin consumes capital and labor in the hope that some greater fool will pay to keep the system going.

No product. No service. Just a resource suck.

Yeah, and you measure the value of a stock against earnings. If its earnings or profits grow, then the stock price grows accordingly.

Still stocks should appreciate if bitcoin appreciates due to inflation from a fiat currency system.

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I still say Bitcoin is a social experiment.

GNL says

I still say Bitcoin is a social experiment.

A modern day Tulip investing experiment ? So whoever owns the experiment is trying to study how the public reacts to Bitcoin as investors and bystanders ?

They are trying to measure the rate of hysteria associated with a speculative investment like Bitcoin ?

What happens eventually with Bitcoin ? Will it eventually subside or settle to matching the performance of the S&P 500 or perhaps silver or gold ?

The only crypto I have is about 8300 dogecoin. I bought at 3 cents and had already cashed out my cost basis of $500 when dogecoin was at 50 cents after peaking to around 70 cents. I'll sell when dogecoin gets to $100 or $0.01.

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AD says

The only crypto I have is about 8300 dogecoin. I bought at 3 cents and had already cashed out my cost basis of $500 when dogecoin was at 50 cents after peaking to around 70 cents. I'll sell when dogecoin gets to $100 or $0.01.

When I used to play blackjack in Tahoe I would always take a couple chips off the table when I was winning. Do they even have $2 blackjack tables anymore?

Trump takes bitcoin.

Wanna buy some golden shoes?

Bitcoin over 70k.

Must be some ransom or terrorists to pay.

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

Been a while since the Bitcoin Fluffers have been triggered here, so...

One bitcoin will be worth a million dollars someday.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2024/04/21/bitcoin-halving-triggers-unprecedented-crypto-chaos-as-price-suddenly-surges/?sh=2473f3995804

So-called bitcoin miners secure the bitcoin network and process transactions in exchange for newly minted bitcoin and transaction fees via powerful computers that are believed to use as much electricity each year as some small countries

No product. No service. Costly to maintain. Need for a greater fool in order to profit. Useless as a currency.

Crypto is a scam.

Onvacation says

https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2024/04/21/bitcoin-halving-triggers-unprecedented-crypto-chaos-as-price-suddenly-surges/?sh=2473f3995804

So-called bitcoin miners secure the bitcoin network and process transactions in exchange for newly minted bitcoin and transaction fees via powerful computers that are believed to use as much electricity each year as some small countries

And...

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

We will need to generate twice the power we do to handle the rapid re-industrialization going on in the US. That means bullshit power consumption like bitcoin and EV charging is going to be taking a back seat, one way or another.

Expect a jump in the price of bitcoin

Security expert Ahmed Banafa "said Tuesday that it looks likely that hackers infiltrated the bank's [Patelco credit union] internal databases via a phishing email and encrypted its contents, locking out the bank from its own systems," the Mercury News reported. Banafa was paraphrased as saying that it is "likely the hackers will demand an amount of money from the credit union to restore its systems back to normal, and will continue to hold the bank's accounts hostage until either the bank finds a way around the hack or until the hackers are paid."

Change Healthcare, a health payment processing company hit by ransomware this year, told lawmakers that it paid a ransom of $22 million in bitcoin.

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2024/07/everythings-frozen-ransomware-locks-credit-union-users-out-of-bank-accounts/

Remember: fiat in, fiat out.

Cryptocurrencies are just money laundries and gambling casinos.

Onvacation says

Expect a jump in the price of bitcoin

Probably not until Mt. Gox is done (finally selling out) as well as the German government finishes selling out - on the open market instead of over the counter for some reason.

Median new US home price in bitcoin (BTC)

So by 2028, it will take no more than 2 BTC to be equivalent to a median new US home price ?

2012 - 50,616 $BTC
2013 - 19,127 $BTC
2014 - 351 $BTC
2015 - 901 $BTC
2016 - 697 $BTC
2017 - 323 $BTC
2018 - 24 $BTC
2019 - 84 $BTC
2020 - 46 $BTC
2021 - 10 $BTC
2022 - 20 $BTC
2023 - 14 $BTC
2024 - 8 $BTC

AD says

So by 2028, it will take no more than 2 BTC to be equivalent to a median new US home price ?

Assuming enough fools can be found to support higher prices.

Buy now or be priced out FOREVER!

They're not making any more!

THE CURRENCY OF THE FUTURE!

just $56,912.40 per coin*

^{* plus transaction fees}

Onvacation says

Assuming enough fools can be found to support higher prices.

I understand as it is how much does it get adopted by retail investors.

Larry Fink was one of the first to offer a Bitcoin ETF through Blackrock.

The fact that Blackrock got into the game says a lot as far as Bitcoin's future.

Everything I heard is that Bitcoin holds value when the currency devalues, such as listening to The Mooch on Bloomberg TV recommending to have 1 to 3% of your assets in a Bitcoin ETF, because its safer than holding Bitcoin through a digital wallet.

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AD says

The Mooch on Bloomberg TV recommending to have 1 to 3% of your assets in a Bitcoin ETF, because its safer than holding Bitcoin through a digital wallet.

That's all I've ever recommended, a small percentage. Except not in an ETF but your own cold storage wallet. Not your key, not your coin. I have started trading it using part of my Roth using an ETF though. Cold storage coins I'm not selling.

AD says

Everything I heard is that Bitcoin holds value when the currency devalues

Logically, How can that be?

Crypto is valued in fiat.
When you buy crypto you pay in fiat.
When you sell crypto you get paid in fiat.
Kind of like gold.

But it is not gold.

However, both crypto and gold will go to infinite $ when $ goes to zero.

"They" like bitcoin because they can charge $85 on an $8 transaction. It's tailor-made for middlemen. You thought real estate commissions were bad? Try bitcoin transaction fees at 15X higher.

Onvacation says

Logically, How can that be?

Crypto is valued in fiat.
When you buy crypto you pay in fiat.
When you sell crypto you get paid in fiat.
Kind of like gold.

But it is not gold.

It is getting more and more adopted (such as thru Blackrock's Bitcoin ETF) as a hedge against devaluation of currency.

How can that be, you asked. To answer your question, examine how many Bitcoins it takes to be a US median priced home over the last 15 years.

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stereotomy says

"They" like bitcoin because they can charge $85 on an $8 transaction. It's tailor-made for middlemen. You thought real estate commissions were bad? Try bitcoin transaction fees at 15X higher.

Yeah you bring up a good point about the Bitcoin miners charging for a fee to verify and process a Bitcoin sale.

From what I've read, there will be enough competition among the Bitcoin miners to make the fee reasonable like charge a 1% fee for the Bitcoin sale.

I own 556 shares of Fidelity Bitcoin ETF at a cost basis of $32363.

I calculated I own equivalent of about 48.7% of one Bitcoin (BTC).

I figure I will sell the ETF if Bitcoin goes to $1 or $1 million.

Hopefully I sell when 1/2 of a Bitcoin is equivalent in value to the US median price house.

AD says

stereotomy says

"They" like bitcoin because they can charge $85 on an $8 transaction. It's tailor-made for middlemen. You thought real estate commissions were bad? Try bitcoin transaction fees at 15X higher.

Yeah you bring up a good point about the Bitcoin miners charging for a fee to verify and process a Bitcoin sale.

From what I've read, there will be enough competition among the Bitcoin miners to make the fee reasonable like charge a 1% fee for the Bitcoin sale.

Yeah, when bitcoin transactions are < 1%, then that's the time to get aboard. I mean, sales taxes are 8% or worse. Right now it's HODLers and speculative banks.

stereotomy says

Right now it's HODLers and speculative banks.

Its about adoption, which is about the Blackrock's and Fidelity's getting its retail investors to buy their Bitcoin ETFs.

With that in the background, how much will the trend continue as far as it taking less Bitcoins to buy a US median priced new home.

Will it only take 2 Bitcoins when the next halving occurs around 2028 ?

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stereotomy says

Right now it's HODLers and speculative banks.

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News about this much of an inflow tells me Bitcoin has greater chance of being mainstream adopted and there is no progressive or cumulative exodus after a +22% drop from its recent all time high.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-etf-investors-bought-dip-142303411.html

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AD says

Its about adoption, which is about the Blackrock's and Fidelity's getting its retail investors to buy their Bitcoin ETFs.

No. It's about service fees on the accounts. You get 1 million bitcoiners and you buy it for them and charge monthly or annual service fees for holding bitcoin for you that you'll never be able to access. If it goes down, you lose the money not Blackrock or Fidelity.

Blackrock and Fidelity are looking at it like someone would a rental property. You buy bitcoin and rent it out to the public and collect rent. It's the same for gold and silver EFT's. You'll never physically hold what you bought in your home. That's why bitcoin is so stupid. I can hold a gold bar or silver coins. There have been multiple example of people losing millions from exchanges with bitcoin.

And that's on purpose to jack up the prices for the whales that run the game. Which it is a game. All stocks are this way. But you can walk into a Walmart. You can go to a Toyota dealership. You can see the real estate and the product. Bitcoin is literally nothing. Even those that invest in it have no clue what it is. So Blackrock and Fidelity buy some for you and you pay them rent. If it goes up you win, they still get the rent. If it goes down you lose and they still get rent.

WookieMan says

AD says

Its about adoption, which is about the Blackrock's and Fidelity's getting its retail investors to buy their Bitcoin ETFs.

No. It's about service fees on the accounts. You get 1 million bitcoiners and you buy it for them and charge monthly or annual service fees for holding bitcoin for you that you'll never be able to access. If it goes down, you lose the money not Blackrock or Fidelity.

I was saying its about adoption by the masses of retail investors, and that a Blackrock makes it easier for them to invest in Bitcoin through their ETF just like its easier to invest in gold and silver through ETFs then to actually hold the gold and silver such as in a home safe, bank safety deposit box; as well as the ETF has more liquidity as I would have to find a physical buyer for the silver coins and conduct the transaction in person.

I was saying that if the floor does not closely come out from under Bitcoin and it recovers, then it has a better chance of attracting retail investors.

There was about a 27% drop from Bitcoin's all time high of around $73,000 in March to $53,000 recent low.

Its now $56,000.

It was $53,000 and $56,000 back in February 2021. So the gains for last 3.5 years have been wiped out.

And a 10% drop or correction in the S&P 500 to around 5000 which would mean the real gains since June 2021 would be 0%.

https://www.multpl.com/inflation-adjusted-s-p-500

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AD says

I was saying its about adoption by the masses of retail investors, and that a Blackrock makes it easier for them to invest in Bitcoin through their ETF just like its easier to invest in gold and silver through ETFs then to actually hold the gold and silver such as in a home safe, bank safety deposit box; as well as the ETF has more liquidity as I would have to find a physical buyer for the silver coins and conduct the transaction in person.

I'd rather conduct physical trading in person and store myself. The problem with bitcoin is there's no physical value. It's technically worthless besides people being suckered into paying for it. EFT's just sucker more people into something that will ultimately collapse. Gold and silver are used in products that can be made and sold if you hold physical.

Hell if you go to home depot and buy 2k feet of 1/2" copper pipe you'd probably make more in 5 years. Sell it 5% under market and you'd still make out like a bandit unless we get deflation and in that case bitcoin would crater as it's tied to the dollar or other foreign currencies.

Bitcoin market movements are pointless to discuss. It's worthless at the end of the day. The dollar is at least backed by the biggest military, oil, minerals, farmland, infrastructure on the planet. Bitcoin is a spreadsheet.

AD says

Will it only take 2 Bitcoins when the next halving occurs around 2028 ?

Why not just pay cash?

Onvacation says

Why not just pay cash?

That question does not pertain to the discussion on this thread as far as Bitcoin storing value in dollars , no different than Wookie saying below that buying and holding 2000 feet of copper pipe as a long term asset like gold, silver and Bitcoin.

but yes, buy with cash the diesel or gasoline at the gas station pump for your vehicle