patrick.net

@_ Did you get the vaxx?

Just curious if you fell for the psyop.

Logan sounds like shit. I don't disagree with him necessarily, but stop chewing rocks at the quarry if you still read patnet. Or get a bottle of water.

_ says

Since it's 2024 and the Housing Bubble 2.0 and 3.0 crowd failed

I wanted to leave you with this podcast interview since Most of you here were Class 101 Doom Porn people.

Happy Fourth of July! America is still the only economic superpower in the world. Don't forget it, kids

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8nwziQE7TjI&t=1110s

LOL. This is a bad time to do a gloat boat. The fun is just beginning.

I can't tell what's going on in Santa Cruz, since my predictor is infallibly wrong, but prices are being cut, and inventory is increasing, more inventory than in many, many years. Places right on ocean are more absurd than ever, but step back a block or two or three or four and some stuff looks like bargain compared to just a few months ago. Might be a good time to buy come Fall and Winter, if the world doesn't blow up in the meanwhile.

Logan creating yet another account to get around the ignore button? If your only comparison is a big pile of shit, saying you're better than it isn't saying much. It's a global economy, so we're all tanking together...

NuttBoxer says

Logan creating yet another account to get around the ignore button?

Yeah, the Patnet profile "_" very likely is Logan Mohtashami of HousingWire, and this profile's first Patnet thread was in 2013.

I give credit as some of Logan's threads discuss wage recovery relative to housing cost increases, and there is a thread on housing debt.

So I don't think Logan is a complete sycophant or shill for National Association of Realtors.

I'd still have to check out his HousingWire website and social media (i.e., Youtube, etc) to see if it gets advertisement revenue from real estate interests like mortgage brokers, etc.

Follow The Money.

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Logan, I was looking at Panama City Beach, FL such as east side and notice through the Bay County appraiser site that at least 50% of townhomes are non-homestead exemption, which safely means at least 50% of them are rented.

Seems like almost no landlord investors are buying up townhomes now, as they are waiting on the sidelines. This then means those looking to buy and live in those towhomes are mostly sitting on the sidelines.

A 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath, 2 car garage townhome building around 2015 and sold for $187,000, went as high as $335,000 in early 2022 (with locked in 30 year mortgage rate of 3%). Seems like latest price is around $290,000.

The townhome monthly rent still seems to be around $2200, and same it was back in 2022. Entry level hourly wage is around $14 an hour, plus tips (which usually means an extra $2 an hour at the Dunkin Donuts, Back Beach BBQ, Shanes Rib Shack, Starbucks, etc).

.

One thing is noticed is each bedroom has a tenant who works service industry like cleaning hotels, working Starbucks, etc.

And they average about $15 an hour for 32 hours a week and pay about $850 a month for the townhome's bedroom and the utilities (water, sewer, internet and electricity).

Many of them are foreigners like 20 year olds from eastern Europe on a work visa or a student visa with the local schools like Gulf Coast State College and Florida State University - Panama City campus.

Logan has an article recently about the resiliency of the housing market.

I think it is just stuck or in neutral cause no one is selling or being forced to sell with 30 yr mortgages below the rate of 4%.

There does not seem to be a large enough demographic of Work from Home being forced backed to the office in California, and causing them to sell their primary home in Idaho, etc.

And then he wrote the below article:

https://www.housingwire.com/podcast/logan-mohtashami-mortgage-rates-arent-falling-because-the-fed-is-still-focused-on-the-labor-market/

I think the 30 year mortgage rate historically is 1.5% to 2% above the 10 Year Treasury Rate which is usually about 1.5% above the 12 month or annual inflation rate.

So the inflation rate at least indirectly sets the bond and mortgage rates. I don't know why the 30 year mortgage rate is not now around 6% to 6.5%.

If the PCE continues to remain below 3% I suspect the Fed will lower the Fed Funds rate from 5.5% to no less than 5%.

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AmericanKulak says

_ says

Since it's 2024 and the Housing Bubble 2.0 and 3.0 crowd failed

I wanted to leave you with this podcast interview since Most of you here were Class 101 Doom Porn people.

Happy Fourth of July! America is still the only economic superpower in the world. Don't forget it, kids

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8nwziQE7TjI&t=1110s

LOL. This is a bad time to do a gloat boat. The fun is just beginning.

Has Logan been wrong?

GNL says

Has Logan been wrong?

He's trying to sell loans. Wrong or right doesn't matter as long as he gets his fee. A house doesn't have to sell for him to make money. A refi is just as good. There are other products as well. He is and always has been a salesman.

I know you know a lot of Realtors GNL, but lenders and attorneys are worse in my opinion. They sit in an office and do nothing and make phone calls. Realtors at least have to leave the house and open doors as bad as that sounds. Lenders sit there and have their customers put all their info into a web portal. Boom, they get a $1-2k check. If you're good at it you can do that 3-4 times a week.

The market is softening by me at least. No crash. I'm anecdotal. More signs up for sure at homes. Noticed it in the last 30 days. Didn't predict it, but I think the inflation might be starting to kick in, in a meaningful way at least. Even with 10 year owners, weekly groceries for a family of 5 are in the $200 range if frugal or $400-500. Per week. That's not sustainable. That's a mortgage on its own to feed your family. Now you need a car most likely. Pay taxes. Even if you make $100k, the math doesn't work. And that's almost double the median family income.

WookieMan says

The market is softening by me at least. No crash. I'm anecdotal. More signs up for sure at homes. Noticed it in the last 30 days. Didn't predict it, but I think the inflation might be starting to kick in, in a meaningful way at least. Even with 10 year owners, weekly groceries for a family of 5 are in the $200 range if frugal or $400-500. Per week. That's not sustainable. That's a mortgage on its own to feed your family. Now you need a car most likely. Pay taxes. Even if you make $100k, the math doesn't work. And that's almost double the median family income.

That is why the first metric is to examine home price to household income ratio. Its clearly not a perfect metric, but it gives you a snapshot as far as housing affordability.

This particularly applies to " middle class " housing ranging from $300,000 to $550,000.

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WookieMan says

but lenders and attorneys are worse in my opinion. They sit in an office and do nothing and make phone calls. Realtors at least have to leave the house and open doors as bad as that sounds. Lenders sit there and have their customers put all their info into a web portal. Boom, they get a $1-2k check. If you're good at it you can do that 3-4 times a week.

I agree with you. It's the underwriting dept. that does all the work. I would think it's been possible to get rid of loan officers (if only just most of them) for a while now. Pretty scummy industries imo. Anyone who simply pushes paper around to make a living is not a contributor to society. Certainly not to the extent as many other occupations that are paid way less. Just my opinion. There is an awful lot of manipulation of the ecomony and industries going on. I don't know what the answer is other than people should avoid debt (of course there's lots of people who make money off others through owning debt.)...anyway, this could be an all week conversation.