patrick.net

AD says

RWSGFY says

There was all that noise about bitcoin halving last April which was supposed to make it skyrocket. Didn't happen.

Examine the BTC price chart. Notice it did not significantly increase within 12 months of the halving.

give BTC some time

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I see. The people who were pitching this sounded like it was supposed to happen almost immediately. I was too lazy to go look at the charts then.

https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/the-road-back-from-serfdom

BTC is certainly not a currency in any meaningful sense.

it is not a minimally viable product as either a means of exchange or as a means or escape.

and that latter one is the real doozie.

i came grudgingly to this viewpoint having been in and around BTC since it was in the single digits. i came to bitcoin through cryptography and early public key crypto projects like PGP that were so seminal in the whole idea of open source.

let me be clear: i am a huge believer in crypto-currency.

i think it’s probably the most important idea in the world right now.

but i also think it’s been stuck in an alley that ends in a brick wall as the early promise and purpose was lost among ponzi games, “coin have dog,” and lost vision and execution to the point where i was having a conversation with the founder of one of the major exchanges and he literally could not describe his order matching algo in even rudimentary terms, the primary purpose of ETH is ponzi casino games, and the best argument for BTC right now is “publicly traded ETF’s gotta buy it!”

this last one, of course, only makes the problem worse by generating not just greater fiat links but massive KYC systems. it’s all an increasingly curated garden of surveillance.

BTC was the AOL of crypto, a good start but unable to move forward out of early days; but now, BTC is predominantly spyware. and that’s not going to work out for people who want to leave governments behind.

when one looks at a currency there are a number of features that are needed:

1 sound

2 secure

3 scalable

4 widely accepted

6 stable

6 private

7 anonymous

BTC is 1 for 7, maybe 2 for 7, but probably not in the long run. it is sound. but it is not secure in the sense you really want it to be and the security around block integrity and ability to spam empty or altered ones inherently stands in opposition to “scalable” because its security lies in processing power and that makes scale expensive/prohibitive.

simple fact: until 100 million of us can buy lunch with it tomorrow, it’s not even in the discussion as a currency.

SoTex says

"Bitcoin’s price has climbed a staggering 9,000,000% between 2010 and 2020, making it the top-performing asset of any class over the past decade."

"As of 2024, Bitcoin’s price has a change of 31.40% so far this year."

AD I think maybe you're just posting in the wrong thread. This thread is for misinformation, like what Wookie posted. There are one, maybe two other threads for bitcorn information.

I am posting information to counterbalance the misinformation posted in this thread. Its similar to point and counterpoint.

Why not conveniently have a debate about BTC in one thread ?

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AD says

Why not conveniently have a debate about BTC in one thread ?

We can debate in any thread. No one on this forum or any other thread or any other site has told me the value of bitcoin.

Why does anyone NEED bitcoin? I can always sell a bar of gold. Silver. I can sell a house. I can sell a stock that owns millions of commercial retail spaces or the land. What do I own with bitcoin? You know the answer. Nothing. That's why this topic is so touchy. If you own it, you know it's technically worthless, so you pump if you own and knock the thinking people.

Enjoy gains. Never have said otherwise. Not buying in though. It's bull shit and you know it.

WookieMan says

No one on this forum or any other thread or any other site has told me the value of bitcoin.

I have.

Bitcoin is speculation. People buy a share with fiat in the hope of cashing out by finding someone to pay more for that share.

Or it can be used for blackmail like those assholes who are ransoming access to Patelco Credit Union.

WookieMan says

No one on this forum or any other thread or any other site has told me the value of bitcoin.

Onvacation says

simple fact: until 100 million of us can buy lunch with it tomorrow, it’s not even in the discussion as a currency.

It's not a currency we discussed this years ago it's a commodity. Red herring.

AD says

I am posting information to counterbalance the misinformation posted in this thread. Its similar to point and counterpoint.

Why not conveniently have a debate about BTC in one thread ?

Well. My hat's off to you.

RWSGFY says

I see. The people who were pitching this sounded like it was supposed to happen almost immediately. I was too lazy to go look at the charts then.

There was a lot of that but anyone who's followed it knows it's 6-12 months after a split that it takes off. However, the splits are so small most people I know didn't think it would have any impact except buy on the rumor sell on the news type thing.

WookieMan says

SoTex says

Get outta here!

"Bitcoin’s price has climbed a staggering 9,000,000% between 2010 and 2020, making it the top-performing asset of any class over the past decade."

No one ever gets my point.

BS. I got your point: your point was it's been a crappy hedge. You don't have to like it and have whatever opinion you'd like but that's just wrong.

SoTex says

It's not a currency we discussed this years ago it's a commodity. Red herring.

commodity
noun
com·mod·i·ty kə-ˈmä-də-tē
plural commodities
Synonyms of commodity
1
: an economic good: such as
a
: a product of agriculture or mining
agricultural commodities like grain and corn
b
: an article of commerce especially when delivered for shipment
reported the damaged commodities to officials
c
: a mass-produced unspecialized product
commodity chemicals
commodity memory chips
2
a
: something useful or valued
that valuable commodity, patience
also : THING, ENTITY
b
: CONVENIENCE, ADVANTAGE
… the many commodities incidental to the life of a public office …
—Charles Lamb
3
: a good or service whose wide availability typically leads to smaller profit margins and diminishes the importance of factors (such as brand name) other than price
4
: one that is subject to ready exchange or exploitation within a market
… stars as individuals and as commodities of the film industry

I think bitcoin is more like a bingo card than a commodity. Though one could say bingo cards are commodities.

Onvacation says

I think bitcoin is more like a bingo card than a commodity. Though one could say bingo cards are commodities.

You can make more money selling shit. Actual manure. Not a joke. Crypto is worth less than shit. The price jumps are whales moving the market and taking your money. You can't make a cow shit more and fertilize your crops. You need more crops to feed and more cows fucking.

WHAT IS CRYPTO? Please explain.

Wookie you should buy some, make a huge profit, contribute to the family nut.

SoTex says

Wookie you should buy some, make a huge profit, contribute to the family nut.

Nope. Family nuts are massive for my age. Might need to remove one and put it in a safe deposit box. Stop worrying about my plums.

WookieMan says

WHAT IS CRYPTO? Please explain.

SoTex says

Wookie you should buy some, make a huge profit, contribute to the family nut.

I'm pretty sure he is the family nut.

WookieMan says

WHAT IS CRYPTO? Please explain.

Webster's Definition:
cryptocurrency
noun
cryp·to·cur·ren·cy ˌkrip-tō-ˈkər-ən(t)-sē -ˈkə-rən(t)-sē
pluralcryptocurrencies
: any form of currency that only exists digitally, that usually has no central issuing or regulating authority but instead uses a decentralized system to record transactions and manage the issuance of new units, and that relies on cryptography to prevent counterfeiting and fraudulent transactions

So it's like imaginary money but unlike fiat money only so much can be printed. People buy it in the belief that because of its (artificial) scarcity they will be able to sell it to someone else for more money.

Onvacation says

So it's like imaginary money but unlike fiat money only so much can be printed. People buy it in the belief that because of its (artificial) scarcity they will be able to sell it to someone else for more money.

There has to be a market for it, as there is at least one bid that is for one ask.

Give Bitcoin some time as now it is available in ETFs offered by the likes of Larry Fink's Blackrock.

It will be adopted more by retail investors.

And maybe in 4 to 5 years, 1 Bitcoin will equal the median price of a new house in the USA as many will use it as a hedge alongside silver and gold as well as oil and gas ETFs.

I would have 15% to 20% of total assets in these type of assets. The rest can be in a balanced fund like 60% stocks/40% bonds, if you want to be that cautious.

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AD says

There has to be a market for it, as there is at least one bid that is for one ask.

Why do people buy bitcoin?

Because they hope to sell it for more than they paid. Is there any other legal reason for bitcoin?

Onvacation says

Why do people buy bitcoin?

Because they hope to sell it for more than they paid. Is there any other legal reason for bitcoin?

Yes, its somewhat similar to arbitrage and I plan on selling my Bitcoin ETF when I can use all of the proceeds from the sale to buy a home that is at least equivalent to the median US new detached single family home price

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FBI warns that crypto is a scam!

Now, as traders brace for a Donald Trump bitcoin "game-changer," the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) has issued a serious crypto warning over attempts by scammers to steal users' funds.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2024/08/03/fbi-issues-serious-crypto-warning-amid-300-billion-bitcoin-ethereum-solana-bnb-and-xrp-price-crash/

Onvacation says

FBI warns that crypto is a scam!

You and I have been on the same page on this topic. Is this really news though? I'm convinced at this point that 5-10 people hold 80% of it. They just yo yo the market and make fuck tons of money. It's false scarcity. The party will end at some point.

I don't care if people trade it. Just don't pump it to people that will freak out when it goes way up and then crashes and they lose a ton of money and sell at a loss. There's an end to the game at some point. I don't want to be invested in the end.

Onvacation says

FBI warns that crypto is a scam!

Yep, most of them are. But then again, when do we trust what the FBI says anymore anyway?

WookieMan says

I'm convinced at this point that 5-10 people hold 80% of it. They just yo yo the market and make fuck tons of money. It's false scarcity. The party will end at some point.

The largest holder is "Satoshi Nakamoto" (whoever or whatever that is) owns about 1.1 million BTC out of around 20 million in circulation, and Nakamoto's BTC holdings value is around $66 billion.

The next major holders are the Winklevoss twins (70,000 BTC) and Michael Saylor/Microstrategy (owns about 227,000 BTC)

https://river.com/learn/who-owns-the-most-bitcoin/

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"It's a great hedge against chaos! Storehouse of value!"

AmericanKulak says

"It's a great hedge against chaos! Storehouse of value!"

Bitcoin is near its February 2021 price. But also consider inflation since February 2021 to today is around 25%.

Even stock market is only about 1.3% over its October 2021 level after adjusting for inflation. A 7% drop and that means the "real gains" during the Biden-Harris regime will be wiped out.

If assets do crash, I hope it is in September-October so it will impact voters the most.

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BTC for me is just a hedge and I would not recommend more than $30,000 of it (or half a BTC) even if the investor has at least $1 million in stocks, bonds, ETFs, and crypto.

From what I've read, most wealth managers are recommending up to 4% of total assets in BTC for rich investors. And they have recommended 7% in gold and silver and 7% in oil/gas stocks or an ETF as part of hedging for weakened dollar.

At least the worst is behind Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund ETF, until the next inflation (boom-bust) cycle.
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AD says

BTC for me is just a hedge

Hedge? or Bet?

AD says

And they have recommended 7% in gold and silver and 7% in oil/gas stocks or an ETF as part of hedging for weakened dollar.

Thing is these are ACTUAL assets. Crypto isn't. There's gold, silver, oil that you can actually touch, see, use for production and feel if you wanted. What do you do with crypto? There's no real estate. There's no CEO. There's nothing. I'm still predicting it will go down as the biggest scam in the history of humanity. 100x's bigger than Bernie Madoff.

The agency or "person" that created it, is milking the cow that keeps on giving. Guess what, cows die.

I have an anecdote.
My friend is a retired professor of economics with a PhD in economics from Harvard.
He suggested that I buy some crypto, but not more than 1/2 of 1% of my financial net worth.

He said it's a scam; it's similar to gambling, but with better odds.

More recently he called to vent about his stress about cash flow; "I owe about 1 million and I'm not sure how I'm going to service the debt."

He used his house as a piggy bank to buy other things; one is a small apartment building which failed an inspection and he was dropped by the insurance company.

Anyway, it seems he has a gambler mentality and for this reason likes crypto.

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When a center-left and pro-fiat currency organization (Brookings Institute) states that Bitcoin is "here to stay" no matter bad or worse for the American public, then that says Bitcoin will be a viable digital asset

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-brutal-truth-about-bitcoin/

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clambo says

I have an anecdote.
My friend is a retired professor of economics with a PhD in economics from Harvard.
He suggested that I buy some crypto, but not more than 1/2 of 1% of my financial net worth.

He said it's a scam; it's similar to gambling, but with better odds.

More recently he called to vent about his stress about cash flow; "I owe about 1 million and I'm not sure how I'm going to service the debt."

He used his house as a piggy bank to buy other things; one is a small apartment building which failed an inspection and he was dropped by the insurance company.

Anyway, it seems he has a gambler mentality and for this reason likes crypto.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Most major Wall Street pundits like " The Mooch " stated on Bloomberg TV to buy a major brokerage house's Bitcoin ETF (like Blackrock or Fidelity) and to put no more than 3% of assets in the Bitcoin ETF.

The same pundits said to hedge with no more than 6% of assets in gold and silver and 6% in oil and gas stocks.

Yeah, as far as the primary house serving as a piggy bank (collateral for "lower risk" or "prime" loans) such as with a HELOC or reverse mortgage , that may be needed.

It is for a family member who owns a $1.1 million appraised mountain home in Colorado and needs the money for at least the operating and maintenance (O&M) costs of that home.

I helped them secured a reverse mortgage with a total variable rate of Continuous Maturity Treasury + 1.25% margin rate + 0.5% FHA mortgage rate, which right now is around 6.5% for 2024.

The bank set a limit of borrowing 50% of 80% of the value of the home, so 50% of $880,000 over my family member's remaining life.

They took $155,000 upfront and $80,000 of that went to pay off a HELOC which was at the prime rate of 8.5%, and the remainder $75,000 they wanted to keep in a bank account.

I convinced them to at least put the $75,000 in a 60% investment-grade bond / 40% stocks fund, which earns about 6.5% a year since the early 1990s.

The closing cost for the reverse mortgage was $21,000. The mortgage broker fee was $4000 and likely spent no more than 20 hours on this reverse mortgage.

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When a center-left and pro-fiat currency organization (Brookings Institute) states that Bitcoin is "here to stay" no matter bad or worse for the American public, then that says Bitcoin will be a viable digital asset

Ever wonder why Larry Fink of Blackrock has adopted Bitcoin ?

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-brutal-truth-about-bitcoin

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/goldman-sachs-morgan-stanley-took-stakes-us-spot-bitcoin-etfs-q2-filings-show-2024-08-14

Aug 14 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley (MS.N), opens new tab purchased a total of more than $600 million in spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) during the second quarter, regulatory filings showed on Wednesday.

The two banks joined a group of hedge funds and financial advisers that have waded into the products, which began trading in January 2024.

Goldman Sachs said in its quarterly disclosure to the Securities and Exchange Commission, known as a 13-F filing, that it had acquired about $418 million in several of the recently launched ETFs tied to the price of spot bitcoin.

Fellas, Bitcoin is what's called a dumb 'Web 3.0' type of situation where any basic trend following strategy will work when it's in a bullish cycle. The following is a simple Heinken-Ashi (H-A) candlestick following pattern. Basically, when the price ticker is trading above the 120 day exponential moving average, just follow the H-A computed candles. Three up (green) candles is a buy, two down (red) candles is a close. As you can see, given the bullishness on this, a basic system is profitable ...



So don't invest in it, just trade it.

And I don't believe in the eGold theory.

FYI, I only use H-A computations if there's both a disparity between two EMAs & there's no convergence between 'em in place. Otherwise, it tends to produce a lot of losers when markets consolidate.

Rin says

So don't invest in it, just trade it.

Bingo. I've been saying that for years here and I'm not a stock analysis junkie or wiz. I suppose you could hold some thinking the game will go on forever, but what's the point in sinking money into it and not taking profits... in fiat... lol.

People will always be selling it. The biggest issue I have with it is unlike stocks nothing is reported. We really have no clue how many bitcoins are in actual circulation. We don't know if one person or company owns half of them and can yo yo the price. Sell at a peak and buy more at the bottom. Rinse and repeat. For that reason I won't touch it. One entity having that much power is scary and bad. And is likely a reality.

WookieMan says

I'm not a stock analysis junkie or wiz.

Well, if you put it like that ... I'm calling BitCoin an echo chamber of the Web3.0 phenomena. Just look at BitCoin vs the Nasdaq100/QQQ for the past ten years ...



Not much analysis needed, it echoes the sentiment of the tech sector and its broken promises.