patrick.net

The world needs more lemming retrospective genius investment gurus. Everybody is a genius on what has already happened, unless you are a Jesuit and bury it and replace it with fake history.

"The past is something that needs to be buried and replaced with our fairy tales. The illiterate, ragged, superstitious public don't need to know that shit."

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Google forecast

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S&P 500 up only about 3.5% over last 2.5 years (after accounting for inflation). It drops a little more and the real return for the S&P 500 since Biden was sworn in will essentially be 0% .

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Accounting for inflation ruins the mood.
Another way of looking at it is stocks are the only way to keep up with inflation.

Yes, it really comes down to where you can keep your money so it doesn’t lose value. Beating inflation is OK. Of course far exceeding it is better.

So stonks, bonds, RE, precious metals, bitcoin (I guess), building a business, etc.

If you already have a nest egg, it can be a different game than the person who is trying to build one.

clambo says

stocks are the only way to keep up with inflation.

That's how I look at it.

How does the market perform during an economic recession?
In almost every case, the S&P 500 has bottomed out roughly four months before the end of a recession. The index typically hits a high seven months before the start of a recession.

During the last four recessions since 1990, the S&P 500 declined an average of 8.8%, according to data from CFRA Research. In over half of the 13 years with recessions since World War II, however, the S&P 500 has actually posted positive returns.

There will be blood... (or not?)

EBGuy says

as far as the chart, the yield curve has been inverted a lot longer than a typical recession

the Establishment ranging from career bureaucrats who "massage" the federal economic stats to the mainstream media are doing whatever it takes to prevent the announcement of a recession before the November election

there is still a lot of time (August - October) given how less strong the economy is now

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-chart-prediction-cyclical-bull-rally-last-years-2024-7

The cyclical bull rally starting in October 2022 is expected to last into 2025, according to Ned Davis Research.

The firm highlights a chart that shows the historical trends of cyclical bull market rallies, and when they typically end.

"We expect to remain overweight equities, with the correction leading to a buying opportunity," it said.

The S&P 500 is only up about 3% over its October 2023 peak after accounting for inflation.

https://www.multpl.com/inflation-adjusted-s-p-500

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I love stonks.

I was at a medical office building and talked to a spry lady who told me she was 98; she was not accompanied by a nurse or anyone, she was just fine.

I figured I can keep in shape and probably make it until 98 assuming some enraged Mexican girl doesn't stab me in my sleep.

So, I plan on being heavily into stonks until I'm in my late 70's and then I'll switch the funds in retirement accounts to income type investments.

Until then, full speed ahead and damn the torpedoes.

Prince Harry rides again.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Its inevitable that the air will likely come out of an asset bubble for stocks as well as real estate, as everything "returns to the mean" or the historic trend line like 3 to 4% annual increase in rent price.

Even Amazon's CEO said during yesterday's earnings call that economy has caused consumers to be a lot more value-conscious.

And yet Amazon barely missed revenue forecast (but beat earnings/profit forecast) and its stock goes down about 10% today :-/

Sounds like somewhat of an over selling or over correction, granted its down about 15% from its all time high and 52 week high of around $202.

And just look at Panama City Beach townhome prices on its east side, as they are selling around $275,000 when their peak price was $330,000 in early 2022 and they were selling for $235,000 in early 2020. The same are renting $2000/month compared to $1500/month back in 2016 :-/
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It's simple dummy just buy and hold the S&P 500 index.

beershrine says

It's simple dummy just buy and hold the S&P 500 index.

Yes, buy and hold long term

And buy when the market drops more than 10% at each 5% increment drop after then

If the S&P 500 never recovers then there are bigger problems to be concerned with in regards to the economy and country

I was looking at the premiums for Amazon for calls that expire next Friday and it looks like the options trader market is betting on Amazon bouncing back +5% next week.
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I think I will convert some of my IRA to a Roth IRA on Monday morning (August 5)

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/03/berkshire-hathaway-earnings-2024-q2.html

Berkshire Hathaway’s cash pile swelled to a record $276.9 billion last quarter as Warren Buffett sold big chunks in stock holdings including Apple

The Omaha-based conglomerate’s cash hoard jumped significantly higher from the previous record of $189 billion, set in the first quarter of 2024. The increase came after the Oracle of Omaha sold nearly half of his stake in Tim Cook-led tech giant in the second quarter.

Berkshire has been a seller of stocks for seven quarters straight, but that selling accelerated in the last period with Buffett shedding more than $75 billion in equities in the second quarter. That brings the total of stocks sold in the first half of 2024 to more than $90 billion. The selling by Buffett has continued in the third quarter in some areas with Berkshire trimming its second biggest stake, Bank of America, for 12 consecutive days, filing this week showed.

Currently Berkshire has about 50% of its liquid asset in Equity Securities (Stocks), 47% in Cash and Cash Equivalents (Cash), and 3% in Fixed Maturity Securities (Bonds).

reference: https://www.gurufocus.com/buffett_assets_allocations.php

^^^
That should tell you everything you need to know about how overvalued the market is (at least to traditional value investors like Buffet).

Then again, Buffet was strongarmed into bailing out insurance companies back in the day.

stereotomy says

^^^
That should tell you everything you need to know about how overvalued the market is (at least to traditional value investors like Buffet).

Then again, Buffet was strongarmed into bailing out insurance companies back in the day.

This is the most Warren Buffet has been in cash as a percentage of total assets over the last 20 years.
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Democrats are lucky they have Chuck Schumer and the mainstream media to tell us how great the economy is going into the election.

Think back to 2008 when Schumer and the mainstream media were talking down the economy and stock market everyday back in August 2008.

Anyone remember James Carville back in 1992 and "its the economy stupid" ?

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As of right now I am not able to log in to either Schwab or Fidelity. Down down 900+ and Nas down 600+.

I was going to be a buyer today.

Schwab's website was working horribly over the weekend as well.

I was wondering what to worry about and I recently saw that the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago is a shithead named Austan Goolsbee.

He may be worse than Janet Yellen, if that were possible.

Austan is a flaming liberal shithead, and he's going to probably wonder how a stock market dip or crash will affect Kamala's chances in November (answer; negatively).

Maybe he and his liberal ilk will suggest decreasing interest rates to bounce stonks back up before the election.

I'm pissed off at Vanguard; their website was fine and they fucked around with it and changed some shit so now I have to get used to the new stuff.
What assholes, oh well.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/retail-traders-furious-outages-hit-major-us-brokerages-amid-black-monday-chaos

Retail Traders Furious As Outages Hit Major US Brokerages Amid Black Monday Chaos

Huh, that's not likely to be merely coincidence. They should be able to handle the traffic.

I suspect that limiting trading with "outages" is just a globalist way to slow the crash.

Schwab's acquisition of Ameritrade isn't helping. I mean unless Schwab increased it's server capacity at the same time, but I bet that they didn't.

AD says

Currently Berkshire has about 50% of its liquid asset in Equity Securities (Stocks), 47% in Cash and Cash Equivalents (Cash), and 3% in Fixed Maturity Securities (Bonds).

Wow, that seems very bullish for Stonks! /s

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

If you invested $1 million in the average S&P 500 stock index fund, you'd be smoking fat cigars and doing $243,800 worth of hookers and coke.

If I had a million dollars, I'd already be smoking fat cigars. I don't want any coke. Don't need to blow out my heart at my age. And I'd feel like a fool giving a whore $1000 to fuck especially knowing that she is thinking that I'm a dumb ass while she's doing me. Just sayin'

clambo says

I was wondering what to worry about

Are you uncomfortable if you don't have something to worry about?

I guess I'm a worrywart by nature.

Booger says

LOL! Correct in the first and second phases of the drop, but will be less expensive to buy out her equity positions in the marriage at the crash bottom.

Nikkei 225 dropped about 20% from last Wednesday to close on Monday. Its up about 9.7% now in intraday trading.

Lots of volatility as expected

AMZN oversold based on ADX and then RSI

https://aiolux.com/reports/analytics-technical-indicators?symbol=AMZN&tab_name=adx

https://aiolux.com/reports/analytics-technical-indicators?scroll=pills-tab&symbol=AMZN&tab_name=rsi

GOOGL also oversold

Chakin AD for GOOGL and AMZN show "buying pressure" that is "strong"

Where's the Plunge Protection Committee in all of this?

clambo says

I guess I'm a worrywart by nature.

If I had to guess I would bet that you have 3 years of expenses in post tax cash equivalents and 30x in your retirement accounts.

Worrywarting is highly under rated.

I don't know what my annual expenses are, but they're not too much compared to most guys.

I'm actually wondering how I can spend it faster since you cannot croak with too much or the Estate Tax kicks in.

I think since I was a teenager I was worried about how assholes, idiots, and other shitheads would negatively affect me.

Topogigio Fauci, Janet Yellen, Biden, Pelosi, Obama, and a huge list of other assholes have tried to fuck things up for us all, except for welfare cases.

Stonks going down a bit doesn't affect me much, rather my mood.

Patrick says

just a globalist way to slow the crash.

Actually I believe it is to prevent the paroles from doing some timely trading, insuring that only the wealthy have the ability to buy and sell at this critical time,