patrick.net

Much better!

What will you do (if anything) if by the end of 2006 the bubble hasn’t burst yet and housing has appreciated another 10%?

Ditto for 2007 and 2008.

Hypothetically?....I'll toast to our present equity.
Realistically? Inventory is up, and "price reduced" signs abound.
It's anybody's guess--but I won't bet on Spring being an easy sell.

I know all of you are die-hard housing bubble advocates, but just wanted to pose a hypothetical question:

Ditto for 2007 and 2008.

You need to provide more info to the hypothetical. Will my salary increase by the same amount? Will median household income increase by the same amount? (as of the past 5-8 yrs, income "growth" has lagged RE appreciation by A LOT...it's difficult to imagine it getting worse, especially 10% a year worse).
Hmmm...what else. Will I be married by then?
That is just a very difficult question to answer. I will say, if RE appreciates by 10% a year for the next 3 years, and if wages don't increase similarly, there will probably be a lot of negatives to living in such an environment...people spending 60% of their gross income on their homes??? Shopping malls would be ghosttowns (not that I enjoy going to shopping malls :) ).

What will you do (if anything) if by the end of 2006 the bubble hasn’t burst yet and housing has appreciated another 10%?

Ditto for 2007 and 2008.

Since I do not ask for much in a home, I can probably tolerate another 20% run-up if job and interest rate does not change drastically.

Unless you are worse off than other similar first-time homebuyers, you have nothing to fear. Stick to your analysis unless your original assumptions are violated.

Real estate is an excellent investment vehicle most of the times. The present time is one of the few exceptions.

basically anyone other than the CEO of Exxon or Bill Gates, you have absolutely no incentive voting for someone like George W because his views and policies do not help your kind at all, in fact they hurt you.

And you think someone other than Bush will help us more? :)

I think we have more chance working towards being the CEO of Exxon or Bill Gates. ;)

"What will you do (if anything) if by the end of 2006 the bubble hasn’t burst yet and housing has appreciated another 10%?
Ditto for 2007 and 2008.
Not trying to incite, just curious as to whether that will impact anyone’s beliefs. "

Continue to save big bucks by renting? No, it wouldn't change my belief that real estate is overpriced.

flak, I think the SARS situation was handled pretty well overall. It could have been really bad.

“What will you do (if anything) if by the end of 2006 the bubble hasn’t burst yet and housing has appreciated another 10%? Ditto for 2007 and 2008. Not trying to incite, just curious as to whether that will impact anyone’s beliefs.”

It already burst!

"Allah based on that graph, what would be the way to time 2004 in that for here?"

You mean the very bottom of the fall for the US? There is no way of timing it...it will probably fall for a few years........I don't think the fall will stretch out over a decade. I do believe the tumble will be alot quicker than most people think. When you have a huge number of houses on the market and then suddenly you have bursts of foreclosures (due to "suicide loans") during a time while interest rates are rising, there will be a great deal of downward pressure on house prices. Remember this "suicide loans" have only been used before the great depression....and they also were the cause of it they were never used again until now.
see http://tinyurl.com/7e8z2

"Until the bay area house is 3-4 x annual median income-
Then the bubble will have burst. Until then, still looks kinda dismal to me."

The bubble did burst...the houses are already worth less...the sellers don't realize this.....but the buyers sure do.....notice how noone is buying now? The sellers are just starting to realize this...they are cutting their asking prices trying to find what their houses are worth.....they have a long way to go and due to interest rates, time is definitely not on their side!

"i repeat the party is over ….10% :) hee hee!"

You have a better chance of spotting a flying pig!
http://tinyurl.com/83uog

Stray post here:

I know afterhours stock quotes need to be taken with a grain of salt, but 31% down???

http://tinyurl.com/8wd3p

How would you feel about having sold if rents have doubled 5 years from now?

Again, anyone who can convince me of this scenario I will buy ASAP.

Good predictions or bad, they are all meaningless until you start discussing specific locations.

Agreed--the local economy and market conditions play a big part. The question is: to what degree do macro-factors, such as money supply and investor activity, affect pricing dynamics in local markets?

If our national obsession with RE is any indication, aren't we seeing a large-scale effect, particularly by investors that chase after untapped markets, hoping to get a larger slice of pie in the end. Hence, the serious price runups in places where "fundamentals" are far shakier than our beloved SF Bay. This explains the rental glut in areas like Phoenix, Boise, Portland, etc. I see it as a pyramid scheme roaming the country, looking for the next big deal.

I realize we probably don't agree totally on the "investor component" of the current scene, but I'll agree that specific markets all have their own supply/demand histories. Perhaps at any other time I'd agree that real estate (particularly California's) fall under local circumstances. However, doing some recent research, I came across a mortgage firm's analysis of metro areas nationwide, estimating housing costs based on fundamentals vs. current market prices. I was surprised by the results, showing the familiar "bubble" trend line across the nation. Predictably, the trend shot upward in coastal markets early (around 00), followed later by slower markets. What's curious to me is how these trends appear to follow news I read about regional investor activity.

This comment be overworked, but I respect your take on things, and wouldn't make the effort otherwise.

I guess I was more just venting against the endless cheerleading based on generalizations that are so broad as to be meaningless.

Thanks Jack, and good to hear my take has a reasonable balance. And it's been very useful to hear your take on the local scene. The BA, and certainly Marin, is a very particular place, where long-term experience like yours is very informative. We can't ignore those historical factors for Marin.

I also agree it's important to not let our enthusiasm propel us into a blind alley; extreme arguments are prone to error.

Here, I'm still trying to wrap my mind around the puzzle that is pricing in Marin. In an effort to try to quantify what has actually happened in the past decade, I've done some research on home resale prices. This is a wide sampling, with the only selective bias being homes sold during the late 90s or later. In general, I find the appreciation rather astounding. Even if some prices reflect significant remodeling, many cannot be accounted for by those pesky fundamentals, such as local population increases, jobs, incomes, inflation etc.

Take a look and let me know how it strikes you:
http://tinyurl.com/9vs2b

Pretty self explanatory: previous sold price, then new asking price currently on MLS.

As for ARM loans, keep in mind that outside of U.S.A. in many countries you can’t get 30 year or 15 year fixed loan at all. And their RE markets don’t necessarily gyrate all the time. Of course there is the factor that maybe many U.S. borrowers are not as experienced with ARM loans, though I doubt borrowers outside of U.S. are any more sophiscated.

I am quite surprised. UK and Germany have mature markets for long term government bond and derivatives, like Bund and Long Gilt. It should not be difficult to implement fixed mortgages in those markets if demand is there.

I think it must be cultural difference.

Do “pesky fundamentals” include RE equity?

If RE equity is the major fundamental factor, there it is a form of reflexivity. Boom and bust it will. :)

“What will you do (if anything) if by the end of 2006 the bubble hasn’t burst yet and housing has appreciated another 10%? Ditto for 2007 and 2008."

Based on my personal experience with housing bubble in Tokyo, Hong Kong, I can confidently predict that the housing bubble will have to pop by 2008. There are two time bombs for RE investors, the 1-5 year lock-in + switch over to ARM, and the 1 year rule for long-term capital gains for flippers. Most of the speculation didn't happen until 2004 and 2005. So late 2006 and 2007 will be the toughest point testing the resolve of these amateur investors.

Remember, owneroccupiers like myself won't sell in panic as long as we can make the mortgage payments, it is the "investors" who will sell in panic and depress the RE price. The higher the % of investors in your regonal area, the bigger the drop.

Now here are the scenarios that I see:

1) Fed's rate hike will go well into 2006, which will put it at around 5% or so. The question is what then? If the rate stays there, the bubble will pop when the massive switch over to ARM happens in 2006/2007. Most investment inventories will have satisfied the 1-year rule and can therefore ready for offloading. I doubt how many investors can sit on his negative-cashflow property and wait for 5-year super long term rule to kick in.

Bottomline: late 2006/early 2007, if rate stays around 5%, bubble starts popping.

2) What if Bernanke starts cutting rate to save the RE market because it will involve too much damage to our economy? Well, here is what is going to happen, popping of USD. He needs to choose between popping the RE bubble or popping the USD bubble (we all know USD is still overvalued at current level), and the only thing supporting USD is the rate difference we have between Euro/Yen/AUD etc.... So if he chooses to sacrifice the dollar for RE, then RE will stay inflated, but USD will go down.

Bottomline, somebody with a big saving amount should probably consider diversifying out of USD just in case the RE bubble is supported through unnaturally low interest.

Any chance that RE bubble stays that USD goes strong? Not a single chance, something has to give here in the world where general law of physics applies.

Which action do I think Beranake will take? I believe action 2 is the path of least resistance because it affects the US population the least, for the stuff we import from China or other developing countries, doubling the cost won't kill us, plus we can always force China to swallow the cost themselves, what other options do they have if we shut our door? RE bubble may have more far-reaching impact on our domestic demand, and Bernanke is a consumption-is-a-pillar-of-economy sort of guy.

(not an investment advice)

You would be surprised at some of the countries where ANY mortgage financing at all is relatively new. Greece for instance, where unfinished homes are everywhere waiting for the owners to save up enough for the next phase of construction.

I am not surprised. Same for Mexico.

I heard that China now has a mortgage market.

Also, my friend bought financed a home in Czech, so they too must have a mortgage market.

Equity is a new element in the equation? I think not. But, I am fully cognizant, believe me, of your invincible confidence in where future events will lead.

Invincible confidence? No. Confidence does not lead anywhere. It is better to form an opinion and have a game plan. I will change my view quickly if I am proved wrong.

SJ Jim,
That’s what happens when publicly traded companies with no P/E, because there is no E, miss their numbers and revise forward projections downward, no?

Yes, indeed! I would like to see this logic expressed in the housing market as well!

I also sensed quite a bit of newer remodeling, (and that is just from what the picture shows on the FRONT!)Who knows what went on inside, or was added to the back of the house, etc.

Sure, there's a factor that could make these markups understandable. Like you said, in a way every property is a special case, and they buyer would need to judge whether any remodeling justifies the price. "$100K for that black granite counter?--You wish!" ;)

Personally, I didn't inspect any of these properties, but a few writeups did mention remodeled kitchens, bath--but nothing that actually increased living space. Still...it's an unknown. Many similarly-priced properties I have visited show only modest "improvements".

You have to have very strong capital markets to offload these kind of securities. The banks/agencies need to do massive hedging on loans that they hold on their books.

I just worry that our capital market and OTC derivatives market may not be as strong as we thought.

I simply asked you how you would feel about your decision if RENTS were to double in 5 years. I was pointing out that you might in fact see your choice to rent as a gamble also, if rents start to skyrocket in the near future.

Jack, life is a gamble one way or the other. It all depends on information and expectations.

Afterall, those who have an interest in anything other than information that can be used for an edge are doing themselves an extreme disservice.

Mr.Right, can you explain?

"seattledude Says:

Point is- people with ordinary jobs like waitresses and grocers back in the day could buy a house back in the 70s, it happened plenty, and if you didn’t buy a house in the 70s and were around then, i don’t know what the hell you were waiting for then.- talk about missing the boat when that kind of income to housing cost ratio existed/was just handed to you..."

100% correct...even the 80's and early 90's before the recession.

I remember going over my friend's house after elementary school in the 70s and seeing his dad rolling joints. Biggest friggen' hippy ass loser in the workd...had a house.

Then, on the last block I lived on in South San Jose, where the houses are $800-$900k now, one of the neighborhood kid's dad was a grocer. My friend Scott's dad was a mechanic and his mom worked in the deli section of Safeway. Rob's dad managed a department in Macy's. Mike's dad worked at GE and his mom at the Emporium an Almaden Expressway, before it went under. Gary's dad worked at Moffett Field, Nasa research as an engineer. Another neighbor worked for PGE. Another at Atari when it was happening. Just shit like that.

I got the impression from San Jose, after visiting about three months ago and first time back in four years...that, yes, only the rich in the future would be able to afford it. It was all like turning into Los Gatos affluence or something. Strange and a bit frightening to see.

Phoenix is rising too...albeit at about 1/3 the price but relatively, cops, nurses, etc. are getting knocked out of decent hoods.

WTF is going on here? I'm almost 40, MBA from a state school and can't afford SHIT. Plus, people at work are starting to get nasty and collusive forming little cliques to survive on the job and fight like dogs over scraps.

It's so friggen' bizarre. And now illegal aliens are running amok with free med. care, housing, dental, college, while poor sorry ass sucker military veterans/college educated are stuck with the college bills and getting more behind every year.

You think I'm kidding?

Bad news for your Michael, the congress just passed bills to import more H1Bs and loosened quota for more greencards. It is about time that you write to your Republican senator.

I/O loans that will come due in late 2006 into 2007. Will that be not a ripple, but a rogue wave?

Yep, a "sneaker wave" giving some a really bad wash, for others a trip to the shark's mouth.

Prashant Kothari, president of String Information Services, estimates that as much as $300 billion in adjustable-rate mortgages could be refinanced nationwide next year and $1trillion in 2007

Here's more data for the collective noggin':
According to the author's write-up:
* The HPI tracks the resale prices of the same homes. In other words, if the HPI rises by 5 percent in a year, it means that, on average, every individual home has increased in price by 5 percent compared with the price it sold for last year.
* The trend line (green) is established from the minima circa 1986 and 1997.

Data plot:
http://tinyurl.com/9aq8k
Take a look at "deviation from trend"

More data can be found here:
http://tinyurl.com/8vyxy

Incidentallly, the current deviation from trend tracks to my crude calculations, using comparisons individual home sales over the last 10 years, and analysis of median home prices.

"Yeah, it sucks that housing is unaffordable."

JeffMN, don't you live in Minnesota? Isn't housing affordable there? Or were you just speaking of the coastal bubble areas?

It seems to me that in areas where there aren't an obvious bubble (red states, heartland, whatever), if housing is becoming less "affordable" it's mainly because everyone wants to have a bigger fancier house and there is the easy money available to buy it. Where young families used to start out in 1200 sq foot houses, now they feel cramped unless they start out in 2400 sq ft houses (these measurements don't apply quite as much to CA, where houses are generally smaller).

Houses in many states are becoming monstrosities. 4000 square feet is common. 3000 square feet, to a lot of people, is the bare minimum livable square footage nowadays. This is total sheeple thinking (love that word Peter P!). Humans don't need that much space, nor do they need most of the crap that fills it.

Jeez, I'm starting to feel like a broken record. I need to get a new rant. :-P

Bad news for your Michael, the congress just passed bills to import more H1Bs and loosened quota for more greencards. It is about time that you write to your Republican senator.

I would guess that both parties support these bills.

In the end, the tide of globalization is difficult to stop. It would be in our best interest to look for new niches instead.

RE is a good investment only because of leverage. Without leverage it is simply inflation hedging over long term.

Want leverage? How about Forex at 400:1? :)

*** Not investment advice ***

However, most of us don’t outright distort data as a means to convince individuals to assume massive debts, just to earn a commission.

This is the real world though. I think technical "professionals" like ourselves were too... naive.

There are whole industries that thrive on the financial destruction of small people. I am not going to name them.

NYT reports that nominal wage is up 5.8 pct YoY. How come this board paints such a different picture?

Wage inflation finally.

Just last week I was still arguing that inflation cannot take off until wage goes up. Now it looks like we may see some major inflation before the pop.

But it is too early to tell and impossible to ascertain. ;)

When you buy a home you lock in the bulk of your housing costs to a fixed amount (or at least a defined amount). Over time inflation causes that fixed amount to become trivial, and ultimately you pay off the mortgage and your total cost of owning the home is only the maintenance, insurance and taxes.

Rents will generally rise with inflation, and in most places by a little more than inflation. Prices generally rise with average GDP per household. More specifically, with the average incomes of the upper half of the population (they are the buyers of most homes).

Once you own your home, the price or “value” of your home is not very important. There are only two times when the price for your home is truly important – when you buy, and when you sell.

If you sell to trade up the effect of price level is largely offset by the price of the home you buy.

If you sell to cash out with the idea of repurchasing later, then you are speculating on housing prices in the mirror image of those who speculate on appreciation (flippers). Same logic, same risk, only in reverse.

However, selling to speculate on a decline is a bad bet. Prices go up in 7 out of 10 years, so the odds are against you. Further, when home prices do decline they only decline slowly and modestly. The usual full cycle decline is only comparable to the final one year of appreciation. So if you sell too early all the benefit of selling is lost. Further, you must also repurchase at the exact bottom to get the full benefit. The full benefit is minimal because of the costs of selling and repurchasing. If you sold before January of 2005, you will probably not benefit from the strategy.

We are currently in the early stages of a cyclical downturn in residential real estate. We are also in the normal period of seasonal slowdown. The combined effect is strong. This is not a good time to buy.

Those who wait will be rewarded with lower prices. However, mortgage rates might be a little higher.

"newsfreak Says:

I was surprised at the $1 trillion in I/O loans that will come due in late 2006 into 2007. Will that be not a ripple, but a rogue wave..."

Yes! The bubble will collapse into dishwater and the ensuing tsunami
will be cleansing...Ever hear the song "Aenima" by Tool?

I suppose the gamble is to beat inflation by beating feet in a mad dash to refinance, before mass herd hysteria sets a stampede in motion when the masses come to the realization that inflation has formally arrived...unannounced and without warning.

APS (Arizona equivalent of PGE) now wants to suddenly increase our utility bill by 20 percent!

I find it ironic that people think it was easier to buy 30 years ago. I can tell you it was really difficult then. It was even worse 50 years ago when the average house was around 800 square feet and still only 50% of the population could buy one.

While the hypothetical measures of affordability do show it to be tough today, every published affordability index is only theoretical. Where the real truth is found for the relative affordability of any good (housing or otherwise) is to measure how many people actually own it. And today homeownership is at an all-time record high. With roughly 70% of all American households owning their home, ownership has never been as broadly possible before.

Obviously, there are wide variances in the cost levels from place to place. Specific localities are beyond the reach of the average person. Some places that were once very average have become relatively expensive. This reflects the consumer preferences and the market auction to live in the most sought after areas. Price is the rationing mechanism. Fifty years of population growth combined with rising incomes and wealth have driven the prices up.

Investors have income and/or wealth, and they are using it to purchase property. This is always a component of the market. It has increased in the last few years, as it does in the late stages of every cycle. Those who are long term investors do not destabilize the market. Those who are in for the quick flip, and those who are in over their heads will sell into the decline causing the decline to be more severe. This is nothing new – it happens every cycle.

Real estate is not only slow to sell (normally) it is also expensive to sell. We can sell stock at the click of a mouse at almost no transaction cost. Real estate is a bad market for “day trading” strategies. Normally the best real estate strategy is to buy and hold… never sell.