patrick.net

Here's something I ran across yesterday: a home in Marin listed for its previous sale price from 2002: http://tinyurl.com/d8p6l I've never seen this before.
Searching MLS, I'm noticing many homes being listed this past week.
Isn't that a bit late for the season? I'm going to record these stats, and post any trends I see.

After rising rather steadily for the 1.5 mos I've been tracking, inventory in Santa Clara County took a decent hit in the past week...bringing it back to the level of ~1.5 mos ago (note there's a good chance that I started tracking too late to see an earlier run-up in inventory). I'm not tracking "sale pendings", so I don't know if this decrease is because they all suddenly sold, or if a lot of them were taken off market due to sellers' refusal to compromise on price. This drop in inventory shows up in both mlslistings.com and ziprealty.com.
Anyone else see this?

And here is an odd contrast:
From another source, I'm tracking properties in South San Jose only...and this continues to show a fairly rapid rise in inventory...up 20% in just under 2 mos. Total number of properties is ~660 (to give an idea of the sample size).

Keep in mind everyone that there will probably not be a huge inventory increase anymore until after the holidays. This is not traditionally the big time of year for real estate in general….

Yes, that's true...however, the rising inventory is what makes this fall season "different". As far as I've been able to tell, decreasing sale prices throughout the Fall is seasonally normal...along with dropping inventory. So, I've been been looking at the anomalous rising fall inventory as a sign that this Spring might be "different"...perhaps continued falling prices, as opposed to the seasonal norm of rising prices. To my thinking, the more the inventory rises right now (at a time when it normally falls), the more potential there is for a "different" Spring season. That's my point of view, and reason for interest in current inventory levels & trends.

the more potential there is for a “different” Spring season.
My bet is that in 2006, it’s going to be even higher numbers.

With all the Fall inventory around here, and few sales*, I also suspect a "Spring Surprise", because I'm hearing people expecting things to pick up again after winter.

*not to mention all those houses listed in June/July and still no takers.

Quoted from your link, Mr.Wrong:
Hale also wants Mr. Right to be adventurous, kind, physically fit, and generous.

Maybe it's time for you to become Mr.Right again.

It's interesting how much the anecdotal information suggests a major (dare I say 'paradigm' shift) is underway in the market right now, and yet the official numbers (CAR, NAR, etc.) barely reflect this movement at all. Statewide inventory & time on market is definitely up somewhat yoy, but nowhere near as high as the local buzz might suggest.

I have to wonder if 'someone' (*cough*) isn't fudging the numbers just a tad. As in, buyer cash rebates and other concessions that conveniently don't get included in the final sales report; homes that don't sell, which get pulled and then relisted as "new" listings, etc.

Really, Mr. Wrong!
Your cool exterior conceals a devilish streak, I see... :twisted:

I have to wonder if ’someone’ (*cough*) isn’t fudging the numbers just a tad. As in, buyer cash rebates and other concessions that conveniently don’t get included in the final sales report; homes that don’t sell, which get pulled and then relisted as “new” listings, etc.

I'm waiting for the November and December DataQuick numbers, which should reflect sales under contract in (primarily) September & October, before I seriously question the published data. Based on anecdotes, etc., these numbers should show a marked shift, IMO.

Regarding cash rebates, incentives, etc., it's too bad they aren't reflected in the sale price. Just another aspect of the market that keeps things "sticky" on the way down.

Phoenix housing "For Sale" signs are starting to go up all over the place, way more than normal.

Something's definitely cooking.

"RE bride & House …funny stuff!!"

I wonder if prospective buyers get to do a full-on test drive before they sign a contract.

I've been keeping tabs on the Santa Cruz housing market for at least 5 years (almost bought a place, but came to my senses after realizing I did not want a $800k fixer). I still follow the mls for sport.
Here's a mysterious thing that may be easily explained: There has been a slow decline in inventory (130 properties to 108) in the last 3 months, but the same ugly, freeway huggers/earthquake liquifaction-forest fire zone houses are still on the mls (when doing a search for sfh 3/2 on 6500sft property or larger). They are not moving one bit, and most of them are sticking to their original list price -- no reductions. My guess is that the houses that are not crappy are selling immediately (probably on the days I don't check) and so get punted to the sale pending category that I don't really follow.
The 2 price reductions I've seen: 1.The husband-wife realtor team that we almost used on the ill fated purchase are now selling their home in Aptos. It was originally listed at $849k and after 2 weeks they dropped it to $799k. It is a cute place, nicely fixed up but it does not seem to be moving. Houses in this neighborhood have appreciated 40% in the last 3 years. I think they will be lucky to get $720k if they sell it before rates go up.
2. A property in Santa Cruz Gardens (which was once a working person's neighborhood, but the prices have gone nuts) was on the market for about a year. I think it was initially listed at 1.2M and it is now in sale pending at $999k. It is a huge '60's monster house with interior space like a warren (6bd/3ba). I think it has been in escrow once before.
So, anecdotally, Santa Cruz seems to be holding steady on inventory for single family homes, but they are the same tired, boring homes from August. Ah, if only we could have a serious deflation in Santa Cruz.

I see posts on the board whining about Boomers. Here in Santa Cruz, we also whine about Valley-ite speculators who keep driving up our prices. :-)

You moderate me? You moderate *ME*?!?!?

I cut you...

Cheers,
prat

"You moderate me? You moderate *ME*?!?!?"

Huh? You were moderated, prat? Or are you joking on the previous thread?

Apparently, Moderation is Prime lately. (Wish I knew how to do that little trademark thingy Peter P does so i could steal his jokes better.)

I've got a brilliantly idiotic post just staring me in the face saying:

"Your comment is awaiting moderation."

_shrug_

Ah, well. Probably better for the cumulative IQ that it goes into the memory hole.

Cheers,
prat

Prat, not sure who needs to moderate you but I have not seen anything in the 'thread originator' email stream.

Ok, thanks SQT, I found it buried in there. Prat, your post is now in the wild.

Here are a few in the 95033 zip code

TERRACE GROVE, 599K to 550K, has been there forever...

TREEHOUSE WY, came out at 650K, now down to 559K, no takers, this one has been sitting around for at least 4 months

COMANCHE TL, listed for 749K when it first came out, sat for a month without moving, now down to 699K, still not moving for the last month

SOUTHVIEW AV, came out for above 700K (can't remember how much), now down to 659K, still not moving

MILLER CUTOFF ROAD, initially at 1.05M, now down to 995K, a long sitter for more than 3 months

GREENWOOD DR, came out in August, listed for 1.3M, now down to 1.2M, not moving

MOUNTAIN CHARLIE ROAD, came out in late summer at 1.23M, no takers for a while, now down to 1.18M

KNUTH ROAD, 1.195M down to 1.175M, still no takers for a few months

HELEN WY, 1.199M down to 1.139M, still sitting

SUMMIT ROAD, started at 1.65M, now dropped to 1.6M, still way to go IMHO.

OLD SANTA CRUZ, originally 1.299M, now pending at 1.295M

SUMMIT ROAD, 1.549M, now pending at 1.489M

SUMMIT ROAD, 2.6M down to 2.4M, still sitting

There were about 7 properties that dropped and sold.

Owneroccupier, there are a few properties (don't have time to look up the specific addresses but I think one is the Knuth road one) in that area in the 1 million range that I have seen on realtor.com since last December! That's a lot of sitting for that area. They look nice from the photos so I keep wondering what is wrong with them. Will try to look up specifics later when I have time.

Summit Road, Old Santa Cruz HWY

Roads that cut across San Andreas fault--there was a huge crack down Summit rd after the last big quake.

"Roads that cut across San Andreas fault–there was a huge crack down Summit rd after the last big quake. "

LOL, maybe that explains the properties sitting for a year...

Owneroccupier- I forgot to mention that my informal data taking did not include the Los Gatos Mtns region or properties over 1M. I was looking primarily in Santa Cruz/Aptos/Scotts Valley region.

I forgot the mention another big drop in 95033 in Montevina Road from 3.28M to 2.9M sitting on the market for at least 6 months.

As someone mentioned before, that area strides over the big San Andreas Fault, but it didn't deter any buyers last summer, and multiple properties were selling above asking.

I guess this year the buyers are thinking different, huh? When Los Gatos market cracks, it starts cracking from there first, because that area shares the same school district and city infrastructure (on a contract basis), so people who REALLY want to live in LG but cannot afford the price tag usually go up there, or people who REALLY want to live on a crack in the mountains. I have started to see some reductions in Los Gatos, will try to sort out and post later.

Jamie,

that Los Gatos mountains area typically go for around 600K or less even for the million-dollar looking one, due to the earthquake risk and poor infrastructure, unpaved roads, extreme weather, etc. Back 4-5 years ago, you could always pick up a small mountain cottage for 250K or so, now they are positioned as a starter home (yeah right!) at 600K.

It is about time they come down to their true values.

"that Los Gatos mountains area typically go for around 600K or less even for the million-dollar looking one, due to the earthquake risk and poor infrastructure,"

Owneroccupier, thanks for the background info. Those listings I saw are making a lot more sense now!

One anecdote that recently dawned on me is that it's always the same homes that keep getting sold. There's homes in the neighborhood that are getting churned and others that have had the same owners for a long time.... there's not very much in-between.

Another anecdote that supports this observation comes from the weekly sales activity in the S.J. Mercury News. Every sale is listed, with the price, address, square footage, names of sellers and buyers. This information is taken from public records. Recently, the Merc has added an additional fact for each listed transaction: they include the year and sales price that the property was previously sold.

Just examine the listings - there's a whole lot more "recently" churned homes than can be accounted for by random. By recent, I mean within the past five years.

Why do "recent buyers" out-number "long time owners" among the sellers, even though the overall neighborhood is overwhelmingly populated by "long time owners?" One explanation is that recent buyers got in over their heads, sort of overcommitted, the carrying cost just too much to handle.

Anybody have an opinion on renting in Lake Merced area of SF?
New to town & would appreciate your thoughts.