patrick.net

does it mean that we can all invest in the equity markets again and equity market bubble will offset the housing bubble?

I will not be surprised.

Is this article going to seal the fate of the housing market like what Barron’s did 5 years ago with its cashflow article to the dot com bubble?

The bubble fate is sealed.

pbass Says:
Friend of mine told me about a house that was built just before the ‘29 Crash for $1 million. Property values went down but the owners hung onto it just knowing it would come back. They finally sold it in the 50s for $50k.

Interesting. Where was that house?

You guys should see all the For Sale signs in this East Bay town. They should call it Remax, CA. 30 For Sales on 3 streets.

In 2001, they ran out of posts to hang their signs on and had to have new ones made. There was even an article about that in the SJ Mercury at the time.

Is the denial phase over among the sellers yet?

A neighbor of my Mothers put their house up for sale a couple of months ago for $750k, I'm not going to waste time decribing the amenities, it's just not worth it (trust me). Just last month they were given an offer for only a few thousand less then the sales price and they wouldn't accept it (I have inside info on this). I couldn't believe it but it is actually true..... I never knew these neighbors were so greedy! even with the lack of buyers out there, they turned it down. ...haven't had any other offers since, in fact noone has even come by to look at the house......but just this week, they changed the price to $699k. Seems like they are starting to realize, but I think they are many cuts away from selling it. They are motivated because they started to move their stuff and the place they are moving to is in another state which they are lease optioning. I am wondering how much they will eventually sell for.

In 2001, they ran out of posts to hang their signs on and had to have new ones made. There was even an article about that in the SJ Mercury at the time.

That is funny, I was thinking about starting a business making them.

We all know what happened to the troll in the end.
http://www.kidscookiemix.com/storytime/imgs/billygoat8.jpg

As a long time equity trader this is about as insulting as at gets. In spite of overwhelming evidence to the contrary you bought a home for 799K and now it's "appraised" 1.4 mil. La dee blanking dah! Then sell it! See, that's the tough part, anyone with a pulse can buy something. No one in America is going to stop you from spending money. Selling. That's a whole different story. There's an old saying in the stock market, and goes like this; "What do you call the people that get in at the exact bottom and out at the exact top"? Yeah, they're called liars. If you chose not to listen to Patrick because you're smarter than all of us combined bully for you! That's called a "momentum play". It's the exact opposite of bottom feeding. Here's another one for you. Momentum players are alot like dogs that chase cars. They make alot of noise, they attract alot of attention but unfortunately they don't last that long! The more money you put down, the less appealing this "iffy at best" upside looks. A 75% return in just a few years doesn't strike you as a little odd? I don't grudge anyone a reasonable profit. Really, I don't, but what exactly have you done to warrant a 600K+ profit? Done an addition? Put in a pool? Quit your day job to dedicate yourself to creating a masterpiece? Other than taking out the trash and cutting the lawn once in awhile what have you really done to merit this outlandish fortune? The bigger question is, what will our children be able to afford?

"Luckily, I did not listen to him and and made a purchase on a sunnyvale properly for $799K. It is currently appraised at $1.4 mil."

Back at the beginning: this smells fishy if true. If this is appreciation over two years, that's even high for the latter half of the bubble. And in Sunnyvale, where I have family, I think that $1.4 puts the home into the next price category. You can't just buy an $800K tract home, sit on it for two years, and now expect it to be worth $1.4M; major improvements need to be made.

That said, bragging about "appraised value" is pretty hollow, especially now.

Don't know what trolls taste like, but I hear they go well with fava beans and a nice chianti.

Other than taking out the trash and cutting the lawn once in awhile what have you really done to merit this outlandish fortune?

DinOR,

In my neck of the woods (L.A.), that's called "home improvement" :-) .

In case anyone's interested, on Friday the spread between the 10yr & 2yr bond yields just dropped to .11, and is .21 for 10/1 spread. Looks like there's still a possibility the yield curve will invert by year's end: tinyurl.com/79u6u

However, all of your arrogance in predicting when the bubble will pop and how far prices will be knocked down is frightening.

Frightened little troll.

legions of people are being priced out of the market by waiting.

We were wrong....we must buy folks....buy! buy! buy!

And don’t try to suggest that prices are going to fall by 30% - 50%

Of course not...real estate only goes up.

anyone who bought at least 12 months ago is likely going to be OK.

Of course they are..... I don't know why they are trying so hard to sell now...... they can get a lot more if they wait.

No one knows when and how it will pop. In the meantime, legions of people are being priced out of the market by waiting. And don’t try to suggest that prices are going to fall by 30% - 50%, so that having waited for the past two years to buy was the smart thing to do.

Well, some of us have actually done the research, and there's much to corroborate a factual, data-driven indication of an unprecedented runup in prices since '00. If you just come here to vent, fine. Personally, I find this contradiction rather ironic: those who are confident that recent double-digit appreciation gains are sure-fire, long term trend (while acting ignorant of history), then in response to a bust suggest nobody "knows when or how it will pop". Of course, it won't happen to your neighborhood, but the recent rise in inventory--and corresponding price reductions have been predicted.
Enough with getting pissed off at cautionary voices--if you bought, it's yours to live with.

Very rarely has there been anything that remotely looks like a crash.

I have seen two that look very much like a crash.

And those times when housing has fallen in nominal terms has ALWAYS been accompanied by huge job losses (Texas oil bust, Boston tech bust, LA aerospace bust).

Housing slowdown can induce job loss, causing housing to slowdown more, causing more economic damage. It is simple: reflexivity.

I have to believe that most of the doomsayers do not have wives or children. If you have a family, you will understand that losing your house is the last thing you would ever allow to happen. So absent tremendous economic trouble, house prices simply will not collapse.

I have a wife and two cats, so I do have a family of four.

If you have a family, you will understand that losing your house is the last thing you would ever allow to happen.

People do not allow themselves to be poor, yet much of the world is dirt poor.

We are about to see many family tragedies... :twisted:

I really hate calling tops because it is much more difficult to identify a top than a bottom.

However, housing is somewhat different. Unlike assets like stocks and bonds, homes are liabilities because they drain money in the form of mortgage payment. As a result, I would assume that real estates do retrench more readily when numbers are out of whack.

My pet number is the cap-rate/treasury-yield ratio. It is so out of whack that it is funny.

Hoss,

Despite your rather suspicious sounding email (hoss@cartwright.com), and the fact your IP doesn't appear to match any previosuly known trolls, I am prepared to give you the benefit of a doubt --for now.

If you are new to this blog and genuinely interested in more information, I would recommend skimming at least some of the previous threads. You will quickly see that we are not all doomsdayers/extremists, and that housing bubbles have indeed happened in the past and prices have indeed fallen for protracted periods --yes, even in the mighty Golden State.

You might also learn why so many believe that we are now at (or just past) the peak of a massive cheap credit fueled liquidity bubble, which is rapidly drawing to a close as we speak. You would see that our conclusions are based on solid data and economic fundamentalals, and that predicting a 30-50% drop is no more unreasonable than --say-- predicting in 2000 that prices would rise more than 100% in five years.

If you're so inclined....

I have to believe that most of the doomsayers do not have wives or children. If you have a family, you will understand that losing your house is the last thing you would ever allow to happen. So absent tremendous economic trouble, house prices simply will not collapse.

I will be serious with you for the moment...... I have a wife and child...and yes, the last thing I would want to happen is to lose my house.......so I am doing something right now to protect myself from losing my house.... I'm not buying! As far as economic trouble.....the storm clouds are starting to creep in.

Most people simply gut it out if they still have a job. People need a place to live, after all. What do you people think happens, that homeowners say “well, my house fell in value, time to turn the keys over to the lender and move to an apartment”?

Yes......this has happened before and will happen again.

If you really believe that we are all crazy for what we believe in, then why would you waste your time tring to convince us we are wrong. I don't get it.....it's like going to a blog about ghosts and making posts that they are wrong and crazy.....It is just a silly waste of time. We believe in what we believe not because we want it to happen, but because there is so much data supporting our belief....and for you to come here and deny it leads me to believe that you too believe in it.

true, people will try to hold on to their homes with everything theyve got.

.......but when everything they got isn't enough, they will lose their house.

true, people will try to hold on to their homes with everything theyve got.

Yes, they will hold the door knob with both hands as the "foreclosure marshals" drag them away. They may even tie themselves down with ropes too.

...and judging by our savings rate, they probably don't have much!

Yes, they will hold the door knob with both hands as the “foreclosure marshals” drag them away. They may even tie themselves down with ropes too.

It will probably be useful if the realtor installed those "double-weight" doors Jack mentioned a while back...

but if you still can’t make the payment when the IO loan adjusts and your mortgage is now double, then you’re basically SOL.

It is very easy for a mortgage payment to be doubled if an IO loan at 3% initial ARM rate was used. ARM is now around 5.5%.

I heard in Houston in the 80’s when the market collapsed, people left the keys on the counter and walked away.

This time, people will leave key on the granite counter, empty contents from the stainless steel fridge, walk on the pergo floor and leave.

when the IO loan adjusts and your mortgage is now double, then you’re basically SOL.

.....and that is only part of it. Even if you have a FRM, if you are upside down and your job relocates, you're screwed! People depend on the ability to sell their house when their lives require it......losing that mobility is a very big gamble...it's easy to think the future is bright because you have a great job and you have lots of stuff. Problem is you never know when you're going to walk in to work and get handed a pink slip....all of a sudden reality sets in and it gets much scarier when you start to find out just how bad the job market really is. Always prepare for the worse and you will be safe....If you have money you can afford to lose, invest with it, but when it comes to the families nest egg, use your head....it's just not worth gambling with!

I ment 870K in the last post, sorry.

I sure hope so...that would be one huge increase from only $870

Holy crap! Just did a search for Jackson Heights, NY for 2 br condos and got 186 matches on realtor.com. Just a couple of months ago I only got about a dozen! Prices seem slightly down too. Wow! Aren''t offerings supposed to decrease in the Fall? Yikes, what a shocker!

ScottC,

Caveat emptor, indeed --thanks for the real world example.
Do you have any tips for those of us who (at some point) will be be negotiating a buyer's contract with a (hopefully) reputable agent? As in, my guess is that EBAs (exclusive buyers agents) would provide generally better representation than "mixed-mode" (representing sellers & buyers) Realtors. Does experience bear this out for you? Will most EBAs will accept a flat fee vs. sales commission% (to minimize conflict with buyer's interest of getting the best price)?

I’d say they are about equally difficult, otherwise you’d be rich by now. Prediction is hard, esp. when it’s about the future.

They are controlled by different emotion though.

otherwise you’d be rich by now

One can predict prices 5 days into the future with 100% accuracy and still get wiped out. On the other hand, many have made excellent return being only 30% correct.

How could that be? Actually you only need to predict accurately 1 day or even 1 hour ahead, and you can be king!

Leverage still needs to be optimized. Otherwise, one can still get wiped out by the intraday market swings.

One only needs $500 to control more than $50K of stocks during the day. However, a 1% swing will complete wipe out the margin if one gets too greedy. :)

Can't recall the author is, but this is apt:

Anyone who bought right at the bottom and sold right at the top is a liar.

Or,

I'd rather sell a year too early than a month too late.

Too greedy indeed! However it does contradict the premise that he could see into the future.

It depends on whether you can see the future history. :)

There is a 99.99% probability that society will degenerate into a Mad Max post-apocalyptic future, where housing have-nots roam the endless wasteland and struggle for survival against a horde of deranged, cannibalistic REavers.

The margin of error is +/- 99.98%

I would readily concede that those who can predict 99% accurately would be more likely to be wiped out than those who can only predict 30%.

Only if they invested everything than owned each time.

There is a 99.99% probability that society will degenerate into a Mad Max post-apocalyptic future, where housing have-nots roam the endless wasteland and struggle for survival against a horde of deranged, cannibalistic REavers.

:lol: When they come across a house they want......two men will enter, but one will leave.

I would readily concede that those who can predict 99% accurately would be more likely to be wiped out than those who can only predict 30%.

Very true... assuming that they know their accuracy numbers...

Those who know they can predict with 30% accuracy will spend more effort in controlling risks and sizing bets.

all the members of Threadville
will offer
a plate of sushi,
3 lobsters,
and a cold frosty mug ‘o beer
for the $hitbox.

I will offer the rice in the sushi, 3 lobster shells and a cold frosty mug ‘o beer for the shitbox. :)

It depends on whether you can see the future history.

And in this case of RE, studing very recent history could have provided some clues.
The Bay Area has about a 5-year memory.