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Should land be free?


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2007 Jan 15, 10:47pm   19,954 views  149 comments

by Different Sean   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

Les Miserables

Paying money for land probably stems from feudal arrangements, where land ownership rested in few hands, then ownership was slowly leaked to the masses for a price over many centuries. New World countries appropriated land from the indigenous inhabitants, and then proceeded to parcel it out under much the same arrangements. The centuries-old system of claiming and valuing land title could be called into question.

Henry George, the great American political economist, proposed (more or less) that land should really have no value, but should be taxed according to its use.

If land was free, property bubbles (really land value speculation bubbles) arguably could not occur. Following George, land could be made available for housing, industry, and so on, allocated under planning controls, and taxes levied accordingly. Thus, a house sale price would consist of the labour and materials value of the house, plus some allowance for a land tax. A farm would be taxed on being a farm, a factory a factory, and so on.

Here is a long excerpt from Wikipedia about Henry George:

George lived in California at a time of rapid growth. In particular he had noticed that the construction of railroads in California was pushing up land values and rents as fast or faster than wages were rising.

On a trip to New York City George was struck by the apparent paradox that the poor in that long-established city were much worse off than the poor in less developed California. This paradox supplied the theme and title for his 1879 book Progress and Poverty, which was a huge success, selling over 3 million copies. In it George made the argument that a sizeable portion of the wealth created by social and technological advances in a free market economy is captured by land owners and monopolists via economic rents, and that this concentration of unearned wealth is the root cause of poverty. George considered it a great injustice that private profit was being earned from restricting access to natural resources while productive activity was burdened with heavy taxes, and held that such a system was equivalent to slavery - a concept somewhat similar to wage slavery. The appropriation of oil royalties by magnates of petrol-rich countries may be seen as an equivalent form of rent-seeking activity: since natural resources are given freely by Nature rather than being products of human labor or entrepreneurship, no single individual should be allowed to acquire unearned revenues by monopolizing their commerce. The same holds true about every other mineral and biological raw resource.

Henry George - Wikipedia

I am not suggesting Henry George was always 'right', or that his proposed systems should be adopted wholesale. But should land be free, or valued at a nominally low rate? I suppose I am considering the large planned tracts of suburban residential or commercial land we see daily, not oilfields or goldfields. (Then there is the question of valuing water views...) And I'm more interested in depressing land prices than raising land taxes.

Have at it. There's something here for everyone -- you know who you are. Any mathematical paradoxes put forward will be viewed with the utmost suspicion. Trolls will be tolerated, except when obliterated.

DS

#housing

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91   HARM   2007 Jan 17, 6:11am  

RC,

Point taken on the one-time transfer provision --I had forgotten about that. On the plus side, it does mitigate the Golden handcuffs effect a bit, though the macro impact is probably limited because it can only be used once.

You mean like an idiot next door overpaying? I made my deal. What if somebody decided to pay $80,000 for a 1997 Camray because he won the lottery and it was once his first car and he wanted it no matter what.

I don't see the analogy's relevance here, Robert. Property tax is levied EACH year, based on the current tax basis of the property. It's not a one-time sales tax, based upon the purchase price. The tax basis for each year used to have some relationship with the current "market rate" for the property, until prop. 13 came along and decided to "fix" that (heavily in favor of people who bought before Prop. 13 went into effect, or shortly thereafter).

Yes, you "made your deal" and won the Prop. 13 birth lottery. Congratulations, but what does the price of oranges in Pittsburgh have to do with the weather in Peking? If property tax is supposed to be a form of "use tax" that's supposed to bear some relationship to CURRENT market value of the property, then how is de-coupling that relationship supposed to make it more "equitable" or generation-neutral?

I can see keeping the 1% cap, but only allowing 2%/yr. "inflation adjustments" has created extreme inequality in tax burdens (which are only going to grow worse over time --see Randy's coke-snorting trustafarian example). Prop. 13 heavily penalizes the young for being young and rewards the old for being old, and the born-rich for being born-rich. Not a very socially "equitable" or age "neutral" tax scheme IMO.

92   e   2007 Jan 17, 6:12am  

On the related note, if you take a cash out refinancing and put the money in tax-free Govt bonds, IRS does not like it. You cannot have it both ways. Either take a deduction on the mortgage interest OR pay taxes on the interest you earn from the cash out. Not both.

Unless your refi rate is really low, wouldn't you lose money on this transaction? My understanding is that interest rates on tax-free bonds are super low.

93   e   2007 Jan 17, 6:15am  

Out of curiosity, why don't more seniors take advantage of Prop 60/Prop 90? My understanding is that those two Props allow them to buy elsewhere in California and still retain the old property tax basis.

94   StuckInBA   2007 Jan 17, 6:23am  

There is a way to play the rate arbitrage - if IRS were to allow it. If you have lot of equity from a house purchased long ago - take a cash out refinancing with a low ARM. For the duration till it resets, invest the money in bonds. It was possible to get an ARM for less than 5% and invest in US treasuries that yield about the same. For 33% tax bracket the "free" money is not negligible.

95   surfer-x   2007 Jan 17, 6:26am  

HARM, perhaps you might be interested in a new Church I have founded. It's central tenet is "Do unto the Boomers as they do unto you". I have also adopted rule #2 of the Boomer Code, "less for you equals more for me". We also are exploring Boomer math, as it is truly fascinating, did you know 60 equals 30? While the rest of the nation is suffering from Boomer fatigue, I say why join them when you can exploit them. "yes you are great, and why yes I do think the Stones are the best band ever, of course I want to hear them all the time" "father time should have no impact on your boner, just because you are 63 with a long history of substance abuse and want to pleasure yourself via your 4th trophy wife, I say go ahead, (cue boomer driving off into the sunset in, of course, a muscle car)."

I am trying to think of a name for my Church, I have come up with Sweet Holy Lady of the Everlasting Buttrape. But I am open to all suggestions.

Remember HARM, the pursuit of super profits is the religion of the capitalist*.

*actually taken from a Chinese/English dictionary from the PRC, under "religion"

96   surfer-x   2007 Jan 17, 6:27am  

I am all for Prop 13, your tax basis should only shift when you sell. This includes when you re-sell the house to yourself. When you refi your tax basis should be bumped to the new appraised value to which you have leveraged yourself.

97   HARM   2007 Jan 17, 6:46am  

Sweet Holy Lady of the Everlasting Buttrape

I am all for Prop 13, your tax basis should only shift when you sell. This includes when you re-sell the house to yourself. When you refi your tax basis should be bumped to the new appraised value to which you have leveraged yourself.

Surfer-X,

Why do you hate Boomerdom so? Don't you know it is the Fount of all that is Good and Right in America today?

You and I are not fit to kiss the flabby tattooed asscheeks of the most drug-addled Stones/Beatles/Doors groupie. They ended slavery, you know, as they marched arm-in-arm with Dr. King. All while ending the war in Vietnam, landing on the moon, winning the Cold War, giving women the vote, bringing honesty to government and big business, curing cancer, ending world poverty, bringing about world peace and putting an iPod in every garage.

98   Bruce   2007 Jan 17, 6:58am  

How many years of falling assessments or sideways RE markets would it take for Prop13 protections to wash out?

As to the blame game, people under 30 in 1970-80 California weren't seen much at the polls. The proposition was devised to rein in the state's spendthrift ways, and assumed its present, miserable form only as legislative committees 'converted' the original language to statutes and regulations. In my opinion, it was co-opted.

99   HARM   2007 Jan 17, 7:08am  

How many years of falling assessments or sideways RE markets would it take for Prop13 protections to wash out?

Answer: Prop. 13 tax burden will never "wash out" (equalize) due to falling or sideways moving RE prices. In fact, just the opposite. The further we get from 1979, the higher inflation goes, and the more "legacy" title transfers that happen, the less equal things get.

Ever tried to get a significantly REDUCED assessment on a property before? Good luck with that. I've never tried, but the few people I know who did try it during the last crash (mid-90s) weren't exactly welcomed with open arms by the local tax board.

100   DinOR   2007 Jan 17, 7:23am  

StuckinBA,

Carol Lloyd had a great article about one of her relatives that had never done ANYTHING but "equity extraction"! It would have been funny if it weren't for the fact that it was so obviously abusive.

This (now elderly couple) had paid for everything from kids college to weddings to other RE ventures ALL from a pretty modest "cottage"! They have never even come close to paying it off. Why? It's the never ending equity machine that just gives and gives! (And every penny of it tax free I might add).

The reason this topic has found new life with me is that just this afternoon I had to deliver a client's IRA statements to a local lender and I carefully brought up these types of issues. So there I am sitting w/ two MB's and they were actually laughing about how they had financed, built and SOLD several homes all with a "two year plan". Not only did they not pay taxes on the "market appreciation" they also paid zippo on their "sweat equity" in building the home! Better yet they were able to exploit MID.

When I asked them to define "primary residence" the reponse was the typical "the one that I'm selling" (snicker snicker, nudge nudge). My whole question regarding these issues is where is the line between "encouraging home ownership" and allowing people to operate businesses tax free? It's pretty obvious to me that most of us can no longer even tell the difference.

101   SFWoman   2007 Jan 17, 7:36am  

Robert Cote,

The golden handcuffs is absolutely not a canard. I saw a gorgeous coop a few years ago and for a few minutes considered making an offer on it. I then realized that while I did not mind paying for the place (before the astoundingly insane run-up) and I did not mind the maintenance fee I highly minded paying the additional $25,000/year for the exact same city services I was receiving at the time (and still am on my 1994 tax basis). I have a neighbor in my building who considered downsizing her place because her husband is no longer there but she also decided not to move because of Prop 13.

FAB,

I own a fraction of the land on which my condo building sits. It's right in the deed.
Also, the corner of Franklin and California would be an extremely loud corner to live on. Every time I walk over to Whole Foods there is debris from car accidents in the gutter. There must be a crash there several times a week.

102   HARM   2007 Jan 17, 7:42am  

I didn’t win anything. I made a deal and kept to it. The same deal is available today.

Really? So I can go out and buy a house at its 1979 tax basis today? Wow, sign me up, dude! ;-) By the end of the current just-starting correction, we *might* see 1997 nominal prices again IF it's really, really severe and IF inflation drops to zero, or --egads-- deflation happens. However, I'm not holding my breath on that one.

103   HARM   2007 Jan 17, 7:50am  

I've said it before, I'll say it again. If Prop. 13 is such a wonderful "deal", then why not extend its full benefits to ALL people, not just birth Lotto recipients and trustafarians?

Why not assess EVERYONE's property at 1979 +2%/yr. ? That way, nobody's taxes would go UP, but plenty of younger buyer's taxes would go DOWN?

Or does half the joy in getting your Prop. 13 subsidy lie with the fact that you get it, but your neighbors don't? :roll:

104   MtViewRenter   2007 Jan 17, 7:50am  

DinOR,

IIRC, the reward the IRS offers whistleblowers is somewhere around 10-20% of the amount collected. Perhaps you should go back to those MBs and get some more details.

105   HARM   2007 Jan 17, 8:12am  

Robert,

We'll have to agree to disagree on Prop. 13. You're always welcome to come by my place for a beer, though.

106   e   2007 Jan 17, 8:14am  

I have a neighbor in my building who considered downsizing her place because her husband is no longer there but she also decided not to move because of Prop 13.

Won't Prop 60/90 help?

107   surfer-x   2007 Jan 17, 8:19am  

RC, (who is likewise a friend)

I’ll save some for your discerning palate.

Do you recommend neat, with soda, or some cola?

108   surfer-x   2007 Jan 17, 8:20am  

It is raining, and if I am not mistaken I am "entitled" to some sort of refund.

109   DinOR   2007 Jan 17, 8:27am  

MtViewRenter,

Oh I'm sure you're right! That's not my style though. Me? I make a list of "dickheads" and I've yet to see someone that's made the list go a full 5 years w/out falling on their OWN sword yet!

The topic has come up before and as much as it bugs me to admit it, most here are probably right. With all of the outright mortgage/appraisal fraud going on out there this sadly comes under "we've got bigger fish to fry"!

That doesn't make it wrong headed thinking though (on the part of the gub'ment). It should've been a MAJOR infraction w/severe penalties. For tax cheats it was great while it lasted but with flat to declining markets for the foreseeable future it won't matter much any more. Again, where's the line between encouraging home ownership and running a tax free biz?

110   SFWoman   2007 Jan 17, 8:41am  

eburbed,

I had to go look up Prop 60/90. I don't think she's 55 yet (if she is I want her surgeon's name). She's CFO of some venture group, so she has probably looked into the tax things pretty thoroughly. I think she's like I am, not exactly cheap, but not into paying for something that is not good value. She has a beautiful apartment that is too large for her, but has decided it makes financial sense not to downsize.

I don't think Prop 13 is fair, and I am benefiting from it on both of my places. I have a friend in Palo Alto who has about a $60,000 property tax basis on a $2 million house (to those outside the Bay Area - it is a NOT gorgeous ranch house in a 1960s subdivision) because his mom bought it new and transferred it to him. My next door neighbor pays four times what I pay for an identical apartment and identical city services. I really don't see how Prop 13 survives the equal protection clause of the Constitution.

111   HARM   2007 Jan 17, 8:47am  

@SFWoman,

I really don’t see how Prop 13 survives the equal protection clause of the Constitution.

My extensive and profound understanding of Constitutional law tells me that the "F--k you, I got mine" clause supersedes the "equal protection" clause.

112   surfer-x   2007 Jan 17, 8:58am  

My extensive and profound understanding of Constitutional law tells me that the “F–k you, I got mine” clause supersedes the “equal protection” clause.

Mmmmm sweet delicious hate in the winter as fresh as warm mittens.

113   OO   2007 Jan 17, 8:59am  

As a homeowner, I have benefitted from prop 13. But I also realize that there are certain problems with prop 13 which harming California as a whole, which may come back to harm me, indirectly.

As I said before, in order to get prop 13 amendments passed, you need to get the owners on board. You need to propose something that doesn't harm our interest. You are not going to get ALL owners on board, but you can get SOME.

The biggest problem of prop 13 is forcing one to live in the same house or same neighborhood, especially when the price shoots up ridiculously high. The higher it goes, it more reluctant one is going to move, essentially taking off more supply OFF the market. In a normal market, the higher price will induce higher supply, which will set the market back in balance. In California, it works the opposite way. I was very tempted to sell my residence to bubble-sit, however, unlike Randy H who already upgraded once, and therefore can keep ALL the windfall profit (I assume less than $500K on his second home) on his house, I in fact have made "too much" on my home, which means I will have to pay tax on top of the $500K per couple, and I will have to triple my property tax if I move. So I opted to stay, taking one potential supply of existing home from the market. I am not the only person who went through this thought process, there are other homeowners in the same boat who went through exactly the same process and decided to stay put.

How do we fix it?

For one, I propose resetting prop 13 tax base whenever there is a transaction, including refinancing. Most of the long-time homeowners don't mind this because our home is either paid off, or nearly paid off and we don't use our main residence as ATM. I am all for getting more tax revenue for the county from the ATM home"owners". If someone proposes this amendment, I will endorse it. From a social engineering point of view, we should not encourage people to sit on their fat ass and ATM their home to death anyway. Also, I propose that once you refinanced with equity cash out, when you sell your home, you need to pay capital gains tax from the first $1, not from the $500K, because you are really treating your home as an investment, not as a residence.

Second, instead of prop 60 which allows you to transfer your tax base after you reach 55, I propose that ALL existing homeowners can transfer their existing tax base, if they buy a home of LESS MARKET VALUE of their original home within the next 5 years. This way, you are encouraging more entrepreneurial and risk-taking homeowners to bubble sit. I would love to take my existing prop 13 tax base, sell my home at today's price, and come back to the market in 5 year's time.

114   Brent   2007 Jan 17, 9:01am  

Geez don't you hate it when some new fish stirs up the pond? Very interesting reading though, makes my brain hurt. Anyone planning a 30th anniversary prop13 party? Robert's buying...

HARM, thanks for the link.

115   MtViewRenter   2007 Jan 17, 9:04am  

DinOR,

You're too easy going. Must be the rain up there. Me, I don't mind making a few bucks while helping with the federal deficit. Besides, I'd like to see them fall on their swords a bit sooner.

The rules for taking the exemption are pretty clear-cut. Cases like these are good for those rookie auditors wanting to get their feet wet. No need to call them a tax cheat. Just invalidate the exemptions and forward the case to collections. Takes all of 20 minutes.

We have a few clients audited every year. It's always for some relatively trivial amount of money, and usually because they don't believe the client bought Cisco in 2000 for $100 and sold in 03 for $25. They always want a ton of documentation, which we always have, thankfully, and waste a lot of everyone's time. I'd love to see those IRS guys do some productive work.

116   OO   2007 Jan 17, 9:08am  

eburbed,

not all counties in California honor prop 60 and 90, only some do. Santa Clara county does. However, relatively few seniors are downsizing.

But you see, the reason why lots of seniors are NOT taking advantage of these props to downsize is because of the prop 13 clause which allows their offsprings to inherit the current tax base when they die. The kids of these seniors have all the incentives in the world to keep their parents in their old home, which typically have a much higher market value than the tax assessment base and a much more central location. Also seniors tend to stay close to their doctors whom they've known for many years.

Extending the tax base transfer to the existing home owners regardless of age will be much more effective in encouraging the homeowners to take advantage of price peaks to cash out than the one applied only to seniors. I am in my 30s, and I don't think about passing anything down to my kids yet. People in their 30s and 40s are more willing to move around for profit than people in their 60s and 70s with existing doctor contacts.

117   MtViewRenter   2007 Jan 17, 9:13am  

OO,

"I in fact have made “too much” on my home, which means I will have to pay tax on top of the $500K per couple"

You know, if you made any capital improvements to the home, that adds to your basis, thus lessens the gain. I don't recall if things like a new roof count, but if you built a new deck, or had a kitchen renovation, a lot of that can be used to negate the gain. You may still pay tax, but it helps with the pain.

Not tax advice. Contact a tax advisor for more details.

118   e   2007 Jan 17, 9:24am  

For one, I propose resetting prop 13 tax base whenever there is a transaction, including refinancing. Most of the long-time homeowners don’t mind this because our home is either paid off, or nearly paid off and we don’t use our main residence as ATM.

If I were a homeowner, that would not make sense to me.

Why would I vote for something that might screw me over if I ever needed it?

Who knows, one day I might need to buy a pair of Harley's and some stickers that say "LOUD PIPES SAVE LIVES". Then I'd need to refi and extract some of the hard earned equity to buy them.

People do think ahead you know...

119   FormerAptBroker   2007 Jan 17, 9:30am  

SFWoman Says:

> I really don’t see how Prop 13 survives the equal
> protection clause of the Constitution.

Most courts don’t really care about equal protection “or” the Constitution…

I was disappointed when the “conservative” US Supreme court said that it was OK for the University of Michigan to tell Whites and Asians that we may “all be equal” in the US, but they will have to score higher than other students if they want to go to law school at the University of Michigan.

120   e   2007 Jan 17, 9:31am  

I really don’t see how Prop 13 survives the equal protection clause of the Constitution.

Someone else thought of that -- short version 8-1 Supreme Court (ouch!):

http://www.caltax.org/research/prop13/prop13.htm

Constitutional Validation
Almost immediately after passage, the California Supreme Court sustained Proposition 13's constitutionality in the Amador case (Amador Valley Joint Union High School District v. State Board of Equalization. September 22, 1978). After a series of legal challenges in the 1980s, the issue of acquisition-value assessments reached the U.S. Supreme Court in Nordlinger v. Hahn. In a stunning 8-1 decision, the court in 1992 upheld California's acquisition-value system.

The court ruled that an acquisition-value system does not violate the Equal Protection Clause of the U.S. Constitution because it "rationally" furthers a legitimate state interest. The court said, "The state legitimately can conclude that a new owner, at the point of purchasing his property, does not have the same reliance interest warranting protection against higher taxes as does an existing owner who is already saddled with his purchase and does not have the option of deciding not to buy his home if taxes become prohibitively high."

The court also opined that a state has a rational interest in neighborhood preservation, continuity and stability, and that Proposition 13's system of "locking in" lower tax assessments contributed to such preservation.

It's a good point. If you don't like Prop 13, don't buy here.

121   e   2007 Jan 17, 9:33am  

Speaking of taxes - NYC is looking at cutting sales tax on clothing. Woot!

Now there's incentive to move there... (of course clothing was always sales tax free in NJ... but Paramus was always too far for me.)

122   StuckInBA   2007 Jan 17, 9:37am  

Is Ben's blog down ?

123   OO   2007 Jan 17, 9:38am  

eburbed,

not refi for lower points, I don't want to get hosed on that, if one day there's a 0.2% 10 year fixed, I would like to take advantage of that. Refi for equity extraction? Oh I can tell you I won't need it, ever.

People who need equity extraction should not be buying home in the first place. Or alternatively, you can set a limit. Homeowners are allowed one time tax-free equity extraction.

This is a measure that you will get some financially more established homeowners on board. People I know with personal finance squared away would love to see the FBs screwed.

124   e   2007 Jan 17, 9:45am  

People who need equity extraction should not be buying home in the first place. Or alternatively, you can set a limit. Homeowners are allowed one time tax-free equity extraction.

This is a measure that you will get some financially more established homeowners on board. People I know with personal finance squared away would love to see the FBs screwed.

Why the hate?

Like anything else, it's a pretty interesting gamble. There are pros and cons.

For many years it's worked out that refi can be a sustainable second income. But sometimes the music stops and then you're screwed.

If you're willing to take that bet, then go for it.

125   Different Sean   2007 Jan 17, 9:46am  

Randy H Says:
Then DS posited some other points, none of which address this very fundamental question, which FAB pointed out:

What *exactly* is the logical difference between owning your land and merely having the right to “use” your land? If I own land that I am prohibited from using, doesn’t that reduce its real value to zero? Conversely, if I have an indefinite lease on land that I am free to use at my discretion, doesn’t it acquire the same value as land I might instead own?

It's actually 3 questions, but I hadn't really read them, to be honest. The point's been made before in another thread (by myself in fact) that 'fee simple' title has become an illusion of allodial title in the public mind. Allodial title is marked partially by the fact that it is impossible to levy taxes on it, as it is owned by the sovereign or state or similar. Anyhow. There is still a common distinction in English residential property title of freehold vs leasehold title, where you buy into a leasehold title that might be limited to 99 years, only to forfeit it to the owner at the end, and often costing as much as freehold. Understandably, this is not very a popular idea with people, but they are a common feature nonetheless. Speedingpullet et al may be able to cast more light on the ins and outs of this form of title, as I haven't needed to consider property transactions like it when living in the UK. The leasehold idea though runs counter to my suggestion to continue to own the rights to land, but to keep the value low somehow, more or less by preventing bidding in the market place, I guess. And leasehold represents a reversion to feudal arrangements.

I suppose I am positing an extrapolation or reversal of the land price bubble by going to the opposite logical extreme of imagining ordinary land to have little or no monetary value ascribed to it. This is following in the footsteps of George, and for much the same reasons. However, after more reflection, although we commonly ascribe location value to land, I am wondering whether there should be a separate 'location' value split out on land in a valuation, rather than rolling it into the so-called 'land value'. e.g. land of 1/4 acre or 1/2 acre anywhere has a reasonably low nominal value because you can build on it (and an infrastructure value if it has services to it). It then has an extra 'location' value, such as being in Beverly Hills, or having water views or prestigious neighbours. The housing boom has seen any house on the coast or near a city go up in location value. The challenge in deflating a bubble is then to deal with the location bubble. (I don't think this is just semantics, but it doesn't point to a solution either.)

Interestingly, so-called 'geolibertarians' are generally influenced by Georgism, but the ideas behind it pre-date Henry George, and can be found in different forms in the writings of John Locke, the French Physiocrats, Thomas Jefferson, Adam Smith, Thomas Paine, James Mill (John Stuart Mill's father), David Ricardo, John Stuart Mill, and Herbert Spencer. However, they also probably did not anticipate the concept of Malibu Beach or water views.

Will these ideas create a society that looks like this?

126   e   2007 Jan 17, 9:47am  

Prop 13 is complete bull$hit but it will never get voted down because it’s a ponzi-like scheme that only screws the next greater fool.

What's even more disturbing (but not surprising) is that other states are looking to copy it.

You can't blame them - it's a great idea if you're a homeowner.

And, if you want a Target/BestBuy/Automall ever 5 miles like we have here.

127   Brand165   2007 Jan 17, 10:13am  

> Does anyone know what CO is that bad ?

Since I am researching buying in northern Colorado, I have an extreme interest in the answer to this question. In nearby Greeley (a.k.a. the foreclosure capital of the United States), the typical culprits were at work. The tech boom fueled tremendous wage growth, population increases and price spikes in nearby Fort Collins. People in nearby Greeley started getting increasingly exotic loans to participate in all the free money. When tech up here crashed, thousands of people lost their jobs, and the foreclosures started piling up.

In other areas of Colorado, there was a lot of looting the "free money" via HELOCs (gasp!). Apparently you can take 90% of the inflated equity out of your house, right until the price reverts and you're underwater with loans you can't afford.

I do not have a formal analysis of the local foreclosure market and its causes, but I would dearly like to see one. By my estimates (which may be flawed due to RealtyTrac double-counting), the foreclosure rate in Fort Collins, Greeley, Windsor and Loveland appears closer to 0.5% of households, making us one of the worst areas in the state.

http://www.centralvalleybusinesstimes.com/stories/001/?ID=3807

Excerpt from December 12, 2006: For the fourth month in a row, Greeley, Colo., posted the highest foreclosure rate among the nation's 200-plus largest metropolitan areas. The Greeley metro area (Weld County) documented 428 properties entering some stage of foreclosure, an increase of 13 percent from the previous month and a foreclosure rate of one new foreclosure filing for every 155 households -- more than six times the national average.

Now there's something you can be proud of!

128   e   2007 Jan 17, 10:13am  

Cause I’m sure that prop 13, and insane RE prices, are pushing many fine citizens out of the Golden State.

I'd think that too... except that morning traffic on 85 has really gotten worse in the last year. :(

129   Peter P   2007 Jan 17, 10:16am  

I’d think that too… except that morning traffic on 85 has really gotten worse in the last year.

Where does 85 North ends?

Yep, the exit to Google!

130   e   2007 Jan 17, 10:18am  

Yes, but the congestion isn't there - it tends to be clustered at the 280 interchange and the El Camino/237 interchanges.

Are jobs picking back up like crazy in Milpitas/Fremont?

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