patrick.net

Cause I’m sure that prop 13, and insane RE prices, are pushing many fine citizens out of the Golden State.

I'd think that too... except that morning traffic on 85 has really gotten worse in the last year. :(

I’d think that too… except that morning traffic on 85 has really gotten worse in the last year.

Where does 85 North ends?

Yep, the exit to Google!

Yes, but the congestion isn't there - it tends to be clustered at the 280 interchange and the El Camino/237 interchanges.

Are jobs picking back up like crazy in Milpitas/Fremont?

Levy a ‘number of days in state’ tax, which of course, applies even to newborns, and is inversely proportioned! Longer yer here, the less you pay. Call it the ‘Screw the newbie tax’ (or is it FOBie?).

That's too complicated.

The easiest way is to have a move-in tax. Everyone who moves to California has to pay special "reducing the quality of life" tax. Because - everything was perfect until you moved there.

It would be more fair to have property tax banding based directly on your decade of birth. Then California would become not only a retirement destination, but a forward-looking state that was subsidizing Boomers with the labors of rich young technology workers and 30-something MBAs making $250K per year (plus bonuses!).

Unfair? Yeah. But at least people would stop selling their overpriced shitbox townhouses out there, and buying ridiculously oversized McMansions here.

Inflation vs Deflation ?

If anyone has time, I recommend very highly the discussion that happened on Mish's blog.

http://tinyurl.com/yof5ob

This is Mish's reply to the huge amount of replies he got his original post (which is also linked from there). The deflation or inflation debate has been going on for a long time, but it was interesting to see good arguments from both the sides.

Admittedly, I felt more confused and dizzy after reading all that. FWIW, I still don't believe in deflationary collapse a la Japan (and disagree with Mish). We may see some deflation, before ramping up real inflation and no growth. My gut feeling says eventual stagflation in the US.

HARM,

In the light of the threadjacking meme, your choice of Les Miserables to illustrate this thread is grimly appropriate.

IIRC one of the main underlying causes of the French Revolution was the fact that the tax burden (which was high in 1789, France was still paying off the debts from the 7 Years War) fell disproportionately on the 3rd Estate, which was basically the middle class. The 1st and 2nd Estates (Nobility & Clergy) were both largely exempt from taxation.

Here in Australia, recently modified Superannuation (pension) legislation now offers self-funded retirees over 60 the opportunity to pay no income tax at all. Even though I could be a beneficiary of this within 10 years, I am uneasy about the social implications. I think the potential budgetary impact has been grossly underestimated, given that there's an entire industry out there gaining rewards for reducing their clients' tax.

From the MSN Money Board, a proud homebuyer shares his succes:
"As I read the postings on this sight, it is clear that the age old saying that "real estate is local" comes to my mind. I'm not a real estate agent, but a partner at a small accounting firm in the San Francisco Bay Area, and would like to tell you about mine and my wife's recent sale and purchase. We purchased a home in a tract development approximately 2 years and 8 months ago and sold it in October 2006. We knew that we wanted to sell quick so we priced it accordingly at value pricing. We next took the proceeds with healthy profit and purchased a home in the best school district in California (highest state test scores and extra curriculum programs offered) in October 2006; we had to bid 130K over asking to get it....the sellers also were pricing the home at value pricing.

I firmly believe that excellent school districts, close proximately to good paying jobs, parks and trails, restaurants and entertainment, etc. will always bring a premium. Even though the market in general may be falling, I feel confident that if we decided to sell our current home in the next couple of years (or next couple of months for that matter), we would make a very healthy profit. The reason....safe, upscale community oriented places like Orinda, CA are becoming so uncommon in this day and age. (at least in the Bay Area). I'm sure those out there that own a like property share my thoughts."

Maybe I'm missing something.....if he paid $130k OVER the valueof the house, couldn't he take that money and pay for his kid's college AND keep his taxes lower?

I think Les Mis is more the equivalent of a Dickens novel set in late Napoleonic France, post-Revolution. The drivers of the French Revolution were probably many and varied, but food scarcity and high rents in Paris and Lyons in the months prior to the rev'n drove the proletariat to revolt, more than the aspirational middle class. ("Your majesty, the peasants are revolting!” “That’s right, they stink on ice!”) Plus the cost of funding wars, and the fact that the nobility got great tax cuts, hmm, not too dissimilar to today. Plus resentment of royal absolutism, noble privilege and manorialism from the middle class. Somehow the English aristocracy managed to bond better with the people from the top to the bottom and head off revolts...

I think a Frenchman would object to that description. Victor Hugo is a literary giant in his own right. (I dislike both Dickens and Hugo)

Even though the market in general may be falling, I feel confident that if we decided to sell our current home in the next couple of years (or next couple of months for that matter), we would make a very healthy profit.

very scary stuff...

well, yes, a Frenchman would say Dickens' works were like a Hugo novel set in Victorian England... (Dickens was almost a socialist...)

Doug H,

Thanks for sharing that great example of a housing believer becoming "their own greater fool"! My question is why did he wait for 32 months? This is clearly malfeasance of office and grounds for some much needed marriage AND financial counseling! Why I just know Mrs. DinOR wouldn't stay in a specuvestment home one MINUTE over 24 months! Sheesh.

What is his excuse for leaving this obvious end of the rainbow in JAN '09 going to be? Taxes were too high? Goofy bastard.

"the sellers also were pricing the home at value pricing"

Huh? Dude, you're kidding, right? Oh well I suppose it doesn't really matter b/c HE didn't pay a 130k over asking, the BANK did! I agree DS, how could someone that could afford to live in such a *prime* area be THAT stupid? Scary indeed.

just goes to show, you can never go wrong in property. mark my words, young man, you'll thank me one day...

MtViewRenter,

Oh I've no doubt the service wouldn't find that brand of fraud and deception interesting (rookies or not). The problem is that when you manage assets..... there has to be a certain level of trust. God forbid these cheats (yes cheats) put 2 and 2 together and it got out that you "narc'd" on these scumbags. You can pretty much write off getting referrals. And that's my point. People know this so they can more or less rub your nose in it. It gets so freaking old.

I'm hardly a literary critic (as evidenced in my posts) but isn't this new movie "Blood and Chocolate" a direct knock-off of Herman Hesse? Kind of like the entire "Matrix" franchise?

Speaking of history, I saw the most amazing interview with the current CIA head with an Oz journalist -- the guy just reinvented history in his spiel, claiming that the US, UK and Oz were at the forefront of fighting for democracy, that that is why they all got into 2 world wars, and so on. I think I can tell when people are lying in these interviews from their faces alone, similar for the editor of the Weekly Standard on, well the Daily Show with Jon Stewart, they start speaking softly with a shifty look in their eyes, as though they hope nobody with even half an education is watching...

close proximately to good paying jobs

he spells like a real estate agent ;)

I think PA renter is right.....so many "consumers" are saying the same thing over and over on message boards. What I want to know is whether agents do RealtorSpeak in their everyday life?

.....I took my charming son to his soccer game. The great location, location, location included a panoramic view of the mountains. The sunset was breathtaking as he scored a goal in his tastefully designed uniform. During halftime we took the short walk to the gourmet hotdog stand, complete with updated features including granite countertops. Warm memories filled our hearts as the rainclouds rolled in so we had to HURRY BECAUSE IT WOULD NOT LAST LONG!.......

DinOR,

That's a very good point. Guess it's the age-old problem of whether you're willing to sacrifice your livelihood for your morals.

Well, at least you have something on them. There is no statute of limitations on fraud.

Off the coast of England....