patrick.net

What is wrong with renting until the prices drop 30-40% and then buying with a mortgage that makes sense?

This might be "extreme" - but I don't think that's going to happen here in the Mountain View/Sunnyvale area.

SP,

I wish we could attribute that abomination to a "master stroke" of advertising but.........!

In ways it's fitting that these guys (coming off the biggest re-fi boom in history) have been as equally flagrant about their finances as the very clients they serviced. I'm afraid it's all he could afford. Too bad you threw it out, otherwise you could've scanned it for all of our entertainment.

The funny thing about the Automatic Millionaire crap, it's falsifiable even without needing to criticize the rent inflation rates.

My Bubblizer (click my name if you're reading this for the first time) actually takes rent at exactly inflation, and extends that courtesy to salary also. By simplifying all inflation as if it were one variable I am being very generous to the Buy in Buy versus Rent, to say the least.

I also let you separately turn down your alternative investment return rate, and your reinvestment rate (how much of and where you put the difference between rent and mortgage).

Drum roll.....

It's still very stupid to buy. The reason is simple. The prices are just way too damned high relative to everything else.

For the Automatic Millionaire's fake little calculation to work in the real three dimensional world, you'd need to own that house for over 60 years -or- see about 140% appreciation in real value (with 5% inflation that means hundreds of percent of nominal value).

Good luck finding a buyer of that minimum 300%+ increased price tag who can afford to surrender about 89% of his gross income to buying it form you.

I take that back. I don't wish you good luck at all.

I acknowledge that people need a place to live, and that rent is effectively a loss. But his statements that housing beats the stock market are just ridiculously naive.
Brand, I strenuously disagree with your critique. There are many bubblesitters here who are in the home buying camp precisely because, in a "normal" market, housing performs quite well. I would suggest, however, that Mr. Leverage, from your example, forgot to subtract the 6% Realtors (TM) fee -- a mere $13,200. Now that should put a damper on the returns and is, IMHO, a much better critique.

EBGuy,

In fairness to everyone that weighed in on that one it was so full of holes we hardly knew where to start! Unless you were willing to go at it in one of those marathon posts?

I happened to think (as apparently do you) glossing over the realtor's commission alone basically derailed his whole little strategy. Really! (We are trying our best here you know!)

Don't you pay a wealth tax in Switzerland on all owned assets? That would make home ownership a less attractive thing to all but the wealthiest.

SFWoman,

Perhaps you were thinking of Andorra or is it San Marino? Lichtenstein?

Well, obviously I've never been anywhere near there and know even less about their tax structure so a little info would've been nice.

The funny thing about the Automatic Millionaire crap, it’s falsifiable even without needing to criticize the rent inflation rates.

Randy, unless I am missing something, the Automatic Millionaire article cited by eburbed above had a $1500 monthly rental payment versus buying the house for $200k. The mortgage payments are less than the rental payments so you are ahead already. Were you refering to FABs extreme example of his sister renting a $1.5 millon house for $2000 a month? I want to get on the same page here, so could you clarify the numbers you were inputing into the Bubblizer.

PS - the saddest part about the whole Second Life debacle is that your Shiller graph article did not get any additional comments. I hope some of the folks who made it to your site at least glanced at it!

EBGuy,

The whole premise is defective b/c any area that has 200K homes (a solid 10% below the nat'l median) isn't going to have a lot of rentals going for as high as $1,500 a month.

Wood River,

Does you Swiss born wife tell you "the truth hurts doesn't it" a lot? (kidding)

I mean swissmiss stopped by to let us all know just how superior they are (geez, this a bear blog lady) and how much they have in savings and how we're a 3rd World country and then couldn't be bothered to share anything about their tax structure.

If there's no mortgage int. deduction and cap gains exemption that might explain a lot. Can you share anything along those lines?

The whole premise is defective b/c any area that has 200K homes (a solid 10% below the nat’l median) isn’t going to have a lot of rentals going for as high as $1,500 a month.

I bet there are $200K house rentals in Fort Collins, CO that get $1000-1200/month. A nice two bed, two bath apartment will set you back about $800/month.

Hmm, currently at 2.25%, up 1% from a year ago. The borrower did not even manage to make the first payment.

That number just jumped at me as well.

What kind of lending standards are these where 2+% of people who are supposed to pay you stop paying you the very moment they take money from you ? How moronic are the bond investors who are STILL buying these loans !

On Ben's blog there is a thread that discusses this. I was asking the same question DinOR asked in this one. Has anyone heard of anyone having difficulty getting mortgage ? I don't think so. Credit tightening has not hit the masses yet, because it really hasn't begun. We are way too early on this one.

On a related note, here is an extremely interesting link I found in that thread. It's about brokers discussing the moral/legal issues in the so called liar loans.
http:/.brokeroutpost.com/loans/2/90346.htm

I knew the Bubble was going to pop when a $10/hour assembler working for my old company in Santa Cruz bought a house in Greenfield (next to king city) for 700k.

Huh? Does he have a 600K inheritance or something like that?

I want some meat fondue (in oil or wine broth). Any good place in the Bay Area?

$60,000 per year between the two of them, and they "own" a $700,000 house. That is creative lending at its finest. Even at a simple 5% without taxes, they are still paying $35,000 per year in interest... or at least, they will once the ARM resets. How do you like your new alligator, Mr. and Mrs. Blue Collar?

Brand, brand, brand, we've gone down the hate road before. These fine people are just smart enough to realize their own finacial saavy. Perhaps if you weren't so afraid you'd be on your way to becoming a millionare also.
-----------

swaaaaak it's a new paradigm rrrrrraaaaakkkkk it's a new paradigm

_____________
Sarcasm off.

I’ve heard good things about LaFondue in Saratoga, but I haven’t gotten a chance to eat there yet.

I heard it requires reservations *well* in advance. :(

Perhaps I will just make some myself. But the sauce is important.

I have been to Switzerland twice and I loved the feel there. Perhaps I am just well-shielded from obnoxious people.

I do not like cheese fondue though. Too much cheese.

If by “having difficulty getting a mortgage”, you mean banks won’t offer any better than a 3-year 9.75% ARM with 80% financing, even though that would be my only debt, ever, and under 20% of my gross, while I have 1/5 the value of the potential home in liquid assets, then yes.

What happened?

Speaking of the shoeshine boy stock tip thing:

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/30/world/asia/30china.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

“Irrational exuberance” has no exact Chinese translation, but no explanation seemed necessary in the bustling lobby of GF Securities. Grungy-looking college students, office workers, retirees and even a pregnant woman in suede boots all jostled into the brokerage on a recent morning, eager to buy stocks and buy them now.
Skip to next paragraph
Associated Press

“When I go to the beauty salon, even the girls who give me a manicure are talking about stocks!” said Shirley Lei, a consultant in Shanghai who worries that inexperienced buyers could be cheated. “They ask me, ‘What should I invest in?’ They say they are doing research.”

Oh. My. God.

Should I dump all my China Mutual Funds now or later? :(

But I have noticed the Swiss in the US are the ones that get on my nerves.

I have not met any. Are there a lot of them here? Does Switzerland recognize multiple citizenships?

Excuse? “Credit history not long enough.” I guess those immigrant Hispanic families making $50,000/year together and buying a $600,000 house had better credit.

How long is your credit history? Perhaps you need a better loan broker.

eburbed,

Not investment advice but I'm dumping my China stocks (stupid load issues and all - no thanks to my father going specifically against my instructions) right now. All my aunts are getting perky and excited about the Chinese stock market. It's always possible that the government will keep it bubbling along until 2008, but I don't want to touch anything that whiffs so heavily of the "bubble."

Peter P,

As I understand it, it is extremely difficult to get a Swiss citizenship. However, getting a Swiss passport might be a bit easier. I'm not sure you'd be very happy there as Asian American expat, I heard they're quite xenophobic.

I’m not sure you’d be very happy there as Asian American expat, I heard they’re quite xenophobic.

Oh, I am not going there. Where do they get my sushi? It is landlocked!

"But I have noticed the Swiss in the US are the ones that get on my nerves. Most dont remain neutral on US soil. "

Ha ha! Is that a joke?

BTW, I am conceptualizing a warm seafood salad. If I get around to make it I will post the recipe on greencrabs.

I finally migrated my blogger account to "new" blogger, whatever that means.

Hmmm, I still need to add in my wet dough bread (very easy) and raisin foccocia recipe.

Mmmm, warm seafood salad...

I am sorry that I did not contribute enough to greencrabs lately. Was busy watching Firefly and Wonderfalls.

Person:
I'm hoping that my single credit card (paid off in full each month) and student loans are enough to establish such a situation for me. I still remember being irked that sprint wanted a deposit when I first bought a cell phone.

Does anyone have any info on the Indian stock market?

The arbitrage on the wampum exchange will kill you. I hear it is as high as a painted horse.

ubermonkey Says:

> oooh, I forgot to mention that this homedebtor extrordinaire
> celebrated his new purchase by putting a 6 inch lift on the
> truck he uses for his daily 140 mile commute.

I have yet to meet the owner of a vehicle with a “lift kit” (including both 4x4 Trucks and Donk Cars) that appears to have an IQ anywhere near the triple digits. There seems to be a direct correlation between stupidity and amount of lift. I’ve also notices a direct correlation between stupidity and custom wheel cost (The guys in the parking lot of Raider games with gold 24” spinners all seem like they dropped out of school in the 3rd grade)…

newsfreak: Do consider that a large portion of the US (think Nevada) is mostly empty space, and not a short drive for those of us in the BA.

500 h/mi gives over an acre per person, and if you give everyone a decent-sized lot of 1/4 acre, provides for a very large amount of open space.

/welcomes figures on BA population density, esp. for the urban areas.

@Surfer-X

wampum exchange

:lol:

Switzerland - and Zurich especially has been voted Nr. 1 “best living” in the world.

I thought SF and Vancouver were each rated No. 1 "best living" in the world by something.

This is why every place in the world is special. So real estates never go down!

newsfreak, have you actually been to Switzerland? It's beautiful there. We drove through the Alps down to Italy during late winter/spring thaw. The mountains and rivers are breathtaking.

Zurich didn't seem any more crowded than any other European or U.S. city. You just have to realize that the cities there take up comparatively more of the county than the U.S. As requiem correctly points out, there are huge swaths of nothing in the United States. A better comparison would be Maryland or New York vs. Switzerland.

One of the great things about taxes and Switzerland is that, if you have enough dough, they will write you a private tax treaty. That and the winking at what's considered tax evasion elsewhere is its main draw.

Well, that and the leather pants. ;-)

I thought SF and Vancouver were each rated No. 1 “best living” in the world by something. This is why every place in the world is special. So real estates never go down!

Based on the same theory, we're all going to Hell because at least two mutually exclusive religions have dispatched the non-believers to eternal fire and bad YouTube re-runs. :twisted:

Is East Palo Alto still #2 ?

That is a filthy thing to say.

Punchbowl: I think you're forgetting about the trim, sparky blondes whose looks never age past a vintage 40.