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Did we waste an opportunity of a lifetime ?


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2007 Feb 5, 3:40pm   17,559 views  178 comments

by StuckInBA   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

too late - the S.S. FatStacks has left the pier

For years the interest rates have been super low. Many argue that we really didn't need them to be so for so long. But that's what they were. Effectively, the cost of money was super low. That sounds like a good thing. At least it should have been a good thing in my naive viewpoint.

But what do we have to show for this ? We as American society, what is that we have done over last few years that we can look back and be proud about. There is little disagreement about how we blew it on a political and fiscal level. But from a non-government angle, just as a capitalistic society, how do we fare ?

As individuals, we seemed to have completely botched the golden chance given to us. Many homeowners could have refinanced their debt to a super low fixed rate for next 30 years, reduced their monthly cash out flow and increased their equity - all in one shot. But rather they chose to gamble with even lower payments to risk higher payments just a few years down the road. They took cash out of their equity - not to invest or start a productive business - but to consume and now don't have much to show for it.

But what did the businesses do ? Did they use this opportunity wisely ? Have they invested the money that might bear fruits down the road. Some of the reports indicate that many companies in the SP500 index have much stronger balance sheets than what they had a few years ago. What role in it was played by cheap money ? Or was it more due to outsourcing and simply a general recovery after a recession 5-6 years ago ?

Or was this even an opportunity ? I think it was. But then do we have anything to show for it ? There has to be something good that came out of this. Or we collectively just simply blew it all away ? On all fronts ?

StuckInBA

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117   astrid   2007 Feb 7, 6:58am  

Sushi???

118   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 7:00am  

Patrick being a fascist that has “brown shirts” in his employ, ie the “bear army” those who steadfastly ignore all new paradigms and refuse to participate in the great cash giveaway.

You are right, only a fascist will openly decline the American Dream. :-P

Debt is your friend. Debt = Wealth.

Not debt advice

119   DinOR   2007 Feb 7, 7:00am  

Stretch002,

Firstly you're a W-2 (not a 1099) guy right? I could be wrong here. We'd need to know that before we can move forward.

Some time back a very smart poster brought to our attention that in truth MID doesn't really come of any great benefit until after you've broken your 10K standard deduction (married filing joint) AND a MAX 401K contribution! So if the SD is $10,300 this year and say $15,000 for the old retirement plan you'd need to break $25,300 on your schedule A.

OR!!! You could have a $2,108.33 per mo. MID w/no 401K contribution? :)

120   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 7:00am  

Sushi???

I wish!

Ok, you are not a good guesser. :)

121   astrid   2007 Feb 7, 7:03am  

Peter P,

What did you have for lunch?

122   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 7:05am  

What did you have for lunch?

Pasta.

Now I feel like sushi for dinner. :(

123   astrid   2007 Feb 7, 7:08am  

Now you remind me to crank out some pasta for dinner. That piece of dough has been sitting for long enough!

124   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 7:09am  

Now you remind me to crank out some pasta for dinner. That piece of dough has been sitting for long enough!

Oh FRESH pasta!!!

I am also conceptualizing some white-wine cream sauce for ink pasta.

125   DinOR   2007 Feb 7, 7:12am  

StuckinBA,

Good analysis! And you're right, I've bet on rates on gotten burned (who hasn't, right?)

More importantly though the difference between "needing" the loan and "choosing" is an important distinction. A nice problem to have. If Stretch is a 1099 guy (or...... could potentially become one) that changes things considerably.

If you have a classic like X's T-Bird (not a daily driver) than obviously cash is the way to go! But for something that's sharing the road with half-wits that think "it'd be a kick to be on Cops" I'd let the bank and the ins. company take the risk. That's just me.

126   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 7:18am  

But remember the golden rule of shortcuts - anything that makes it easier on the way IN will make it proportionately more painful on the way OUT.

No exit strategy then.

127   DinOR   2007 Feb 7, 7:19am  

SP,

Proportionately or exponentially?

Btw, what IS "ink pasta"? Anybody? :(

128   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 7:21am  

Btw, what IS “ink pasta”? Anybody?

A type of pasta made with squid ink. It is usually black in color.

129   DinOR   2007 Feb 7, 7:21am  

So..... mortgage+gang+bangers+bankers?

I think we have one for WordSpy!

130   Stretch002   2007 Feb 7, 7:22am  

It sounds like I need to give you alittle more background so you can help me analyze this decision. Thanks in advance for indulging me. I am indeed a W-2 wage earner who is married. My wife and max our 401k's each year at the $15,000 limit. We are in the 30% tax bracket and have a household income between $200k - $300k. We are renters and have somewhere between $350k - 400k in liquid assets which are not retirement related. Our only debt is the 50k car. What do you think?

131   astrid   2007 Feb 7, 7:22am  

I believe Peter P is thinking of pasta made with squid ink, for inky black goodness!

132   Stretch002   2007 Feb 7, 7:23am  

HAHA

Mortgage Bangsters is hilarious! Nearly spit out my soda on that one!

133   astrid   2007 Feb 7, 7:23am  

"So….. mortgage+gang+bangers+bankers?"

Can I have that in German?

134   DinOR   2007 Feb 7, 7:25am  

Peter P,

Is that right? Is this a dish that has a precedent?

135   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 7:32am  

Is this a dish that has a precedent?

Sure.

http://tinyurl.com/3xmrum

136   astrid   2007 Feb 7, 7:34am  

Peter P,

Hmm, that doesn't look too appetitizing...

137   requiem   2007 Feb 7, 7:35am  

Making risotto with squid ink is a traditional Venetian dish, or so my cookbook claims.

138   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 7:36am  

Hmm, that doesn’t look too appetitizing…

This is why I propose a wine-cream sauce. It needs something white. And perhaps some cherry tomatoes.

Also, I think restricting seafood to scallops, prawns, and clams would be better.

139   astrid   2007 Feb 7, 7:37am  

Hmm, for some reason I thought it was a Spanish dish

140   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 7:37am  

Making risotto with squid ink is a traditional Venetian dish, or so my cookbook claims.

IIRC Cascal on Castro in Mtn View has a paella dish with black ink noodle.

141   astrid   2007 Feb 7, 7:37am  

I like fried calamari, as long as it's fresh and made with a very light batter.

142   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 7:39am  

I like fried calamari, as long as it’s fresh and made with a very light batter.

Same.

I also like calamari or octopus stewed in a spicy tomato sauce.

143   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 7:40am  

Actually, tempura batter (light batter with ice + water) is pretty good too.

144   astrid   2007 Feb 7, 7:42am  

Tempura is good, but I think it would result in too much batter to calamari for my liking.

145   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 7:44am  

Tempura is good, but I think it would result in too much batter to calamari for my liking.

True.

What is the best dipping sauce for calamari? I like mayo.

146   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 7:46am  

My wife loves calamari salad with lime juice and red onion (Thai style).

147   astrid   2007 Feb 7, 7:46am  

I have no idea about "best," I prefer malt vinegar or basalmic vinegar on most things.

148   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 7:48am  

Malt vinegar! I love Fish and chips too.

149   Bruce   2007 Feb 7, 7:49am  

Peter P's pasta precedent is a classic Venetian dish, spaghetti al nero di seppia... spaghetti in cuttlefish ink.

The Corte Sconta, a restaurant in the Castello district of Venice had the 'original' on the menu last winter. It was terrific.

150   astrid   2007 Feb 7, 7:50am  

Worchester sauce can be very good, especially the Chinese variant.

151   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 7:51am  

Worchester sauce can be very good, especially the Chinese variant.

I use that on Chicken a la King.

152   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 7:55am  

Wow - I once some cooked beets, forgot about it and gave myself quite a scare the next morning. I wonder if squid ink also has the same effect on your um… post-digestive output.

YES it does. Somtimes it will come out BLUE.

Forgot what I just said.

153   requiem   2007 Feb 7, 8:00am  

SP, this being the Internet and all, I wouldn't be surprised if someone out there has put together a multi-colored ...um... fountain show, kinda like that one in Barcelona

/ducks and runs

154   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 8:01am  

Did we just open the pandora's box?

155   EBGuy   2007 Feb 7, 8:03am  

Dinor,
You are starting to sound like The Mortgage Professor. Admittedly, half the battle is a psychological game -- paying down the mortgage is an "enforced" savings that can be hard to beat without some discipline.... Oh, and I can only hope for MID phaseouts in the future.
Uh-oh, this is starting to sound like a Monty Hall problem: behind door number 1, the SD; door number 2, max 401(k) contribution; and door number 3, MID. Hmmmm, or is this more of a horse/cart issue. My wagon is hitched to MID so now I have to decide if I fully fund the 401(k) (actually SIMPLE IRA). Of course I take the company match off the top, but after that... perhaps some crumbs for a 529. I mean, I can avoid retirement, but not the education expenses :-)

StuckInBA said:
My investment track record is quite decent
Nice call on oil a couple of weeks ago. Are you a weatherman? :-)
I'm long Chevron, Conoco, and CHK (for natural gas exposure).
Seriously, though, dollar cost averaging indexes over a 30 year period does involve some risk, but I'm willing to bet that you can beat your return from paying down the mortgage. Plus, homes have that ... uhhh... illiquid aspect.

156   StuckInBA   2007 Feb 7, 8:27am  

EBGuy :

I went long on XLE. Somehow USO makes me uncomfortable. It's plain luck though. Oil is such a complicated commodity. Politics plays a bigger role. I don't think even the Saudis like $75 a barrel.

Seriously, though, dollar cost averaging indexes over a 30 year period does involve some risk, but I’m willing to bet that you can beat your return from paying down the mortgage.

Maybe. I should take a look at the bubblizer and see if it can help answer that question. Sounds similar to what it is trying to do.

Plus, homes have that … uhhh… illiquid aspect.
How much liquidity does one need anyway ? Keep some and have a HELOC ready for more severe emergencies.

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