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Don't Panic!


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2007 Feb 7, 10:35am   22,623 views  277 comments

by HARM   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

Inspired by Rainman18 (from Ben Jones' blog):

Expect real estate prices to decline in the coming year
Redlandsdailyfacts.com
posted 02/06/2007

Attention everyone:
"When put into perspective of a 10-year pattern, the downturn should have been expected based on the huge run up since 2002."

"...No reason to panic if you purchased your home for the quiet peaceful enjoyment of it" (vs. appreciation)

"Only the speculators and flippers ...are in any trouble at all."

"...and the last ones that purchased in 2005-2006..."

"The rest of us just need to continue to enjoy our homes, unless we were using it as an automatic teller machine."

Crickets: (Chirp chirp, Chirp chirp...)

#housing

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6   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 12:19pm  

Also, a soft-landing means plenty of time to pick and choose for buyers.

7   HARM   2007 Feb 7, 12:50pm  

palo alto renter,

Face Reality is right. The Bay Area is immune to any alleged housing "crash" (which is now so obvious that even spokesmen for the Fed, NAR, and GSEs are on record confirming it). Every 400sft studio in Nob Hill/Marina/PH/SOMA[insert favorite "it's different here" neighborhood] is worth $10 meellion dollars (pinky to lips).

The historic relationship between rents, incomes and carrying costs has been forever severed. The perennial shortage of land there means future first-time buyers will be priced out forever. Renters, and those born in future generations, will be will be unable to afford a $10 million starter home in 5 years. They will live in tent cities, and used Hondas. This asset bubble is unlike any before it in history, because it will never slow down, or pop. The gains are permanent. It's a new paradigm, and anyone who doesn't buy, now, will be priced out...

Do I really need to finish this?

8   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 12:51pm  

Do you read patrick.net while at the loo?

:roll:

9   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 12:52pm  

They will live in tent cities, and used Hondas.

http://patrick.net/wp/?p=390#comments

10   HARM   2007 Feb 7, 12:57pm  

@Peter P,

Thanks for the plug! Too bad we didn't get any other takers.

11   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 1:00pm  

Thanks for the plug! Too bad we didn’t get any other takers.

Are you talking about the Sci-fi thread? I got hooked watching Firefly and I wanted more. It is not fair that the series lasted only one week for me. :(

12   HARM   2007 Feb 7, 1:04pm  

Agreed (on both counts) :-( .

13   astrid   2007 Feb 7, 1:11pm  

Peter P,

What about Futurama? There's 4 and a half seasons worth.

14   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 1:13pm  

What about Futurama? There’s 4 and a half seasons worth.

Perhaps I will get into that. It is going to take a while.

My wife likes Heroes better though.

15   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 1:16pm  

Do you guys watch House? I thought it is a series about selling homes but it is not. :)

It has excellent dialogs. The protagonist (sort of) is one of my favorite characters.

16   astrid   2007 Feb 7, 1:25pm  

My boyfriend likes House. I appreciate Hugh Laurie acting but the series doesn't do much for me. I like the Office much better.

Have you seen Arrest Development? That's very good viewing for bubbleheads.

17   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 1:31pm  

My boyfriend likes House. I appreciate Hugh Laurie acting but the series doesn’t do much for me. I like the Office much better.

Hugh Laurie is amazing.

I have not seen Arrest Development.

I like sci-fi stories and pathologically mean characters. :)

18   astrid   2007 Feb 7, 1:33pm  

"pathologically mean characters."

That would describe about 50% of the Bluth family. It's one reason why the show didn't take off more, the main characters were too pathologically mean.

19   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 1:35pm  

That would describe about 50% of the Bluth family. It’s one reason why the show didn’t take off more, the main characters were too pathologically mean.

But House is mean and lovable at the same time.

20   astrid   2007 Feb 7, 1:37pm  

Do give it a try, I have a feeling you'll really like it.

21   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 1:39pm  

Okay, Arrested Development, right?

22   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 1:40pm  

RE: Don't Panic

Boredom is the biggest threat. Slow motion train wreck is too... slow. Where is my remote?

23   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 1:44pm  

I kind of miss the big price run-up two years ago. At least it was exciting. I doubt that is coming back now. And we are stuck with this slow motion market. I think someone better be dancing.

24   astrid   2007 Feb 7, 1:44pm  

Yeah, Arrested Development. There's lots of lovableness mixed in with the pathological meanness, and the script is absolutely hilarious.

25   astrid   2007 Feb 7, 1:45pm  

We could talk about food some more.

26   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 1:47pm  

How 'bout curry?

27   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 1:50pm  

There are so many different kinds of curry:

1. Indian
2. Japanese
3. Chinese
4. Vietnamese
5. Thai
6. Caribbean
...

From them, perhaps we can have some insight of cultural exchanges in history.

I hold the belief that food drives cultures. :)

28   astrid   2007 Feb 7, 1:57pm  

I'm not very knowledgable about other curries, but Chinese "curry" is pretty weak and never mixed with dairy products or coconut milk. Still makes for a good meat and potato dish though.

29   Claire   2007 Feb 7, 1:58pm  

Why don't you try the new Dr Who? There are three series out there now!

30   astrid   2007 Feb 7, 2:02pm  

I'd say Battlestar Galactica and Dr. Who are very good, but rather different from Firefly.

I wish I had HBO so I could watch Rome.

31   Claire   2007 Feb 7, 2:04pm  

I must admit I am disappointed that the Bay Area has not nose dived already, however, I think it will be hit - who are the specuvestors in AZ, TX etc - most likely the CA lot, who will find their main residencies are more vulnerable when their flips go sour and turn into alligators. Or that's what I think anyway!

I have seen some houses sold for less than asking in the last few months, for significant amounts (if we were anywhere else) but a small percentage against the sale prices in this area!

32   Claire   2007 Feb 7, 2:05pm  

Yeah - I loved Firefly!

33   HARM   2007 Feb 7, 2:21pm  

Face,

I live in SCAL and have never lived in the Bay area (though visit family there fairly often). Why are you questioning my knowledge when I'm agreeing with you? I already said it was immune to any non-existent "crash" --what more do you want?

34   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 2:22pm  

Yeah - I loved Firefly!

Looks like those who love Firefly love it very much.

It is my all-time favorite sci-fi show. Sorry Cap'n Kirk. :)

35   StuckInBA   2007 Feb 7, 2:22pm  

HARM :

You forgot that in BA everyone buys with 20% down and has a FRM. So the meltdown in Subprime lenders will have no effect. If a financial need arises, people either just demand and get a raise, or sell some of their stock options and get new ones granted to replace them.

36   HARM   2007 Feb 7, 2:23pm  

Otherwise, plan to grow some gray hair while waiting for the BA meltdown.

Again, you are correct. Overextended borrowers do not age or grow gray hair. Aging is an affliction reserved for JBRs.

37   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 2:25pm  

Aging is an affliction reserved for JBRs.

No wonder I have gray hair. I should have bought with a Voodoo loan. I knew it!

38   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 2:26pm  

I’m not very knowledgable about other curries, but Chinese “curry” is pretty weak and never mixed with dairy products or coconut milk. Still makes for a good meat and potato dish though.

Japanese curry is very good with seafood, 'specially shellfishes.

39   Claire   2007 Feb 7, 2:26pm  

I don't remember it too well now, but I remember I loved Blake 7 when I was a kid and was so upset when that was cancelled.

40   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 2:29pm  

I don’t remember it too well now, but I remember I loved Blake 7 when I was a kid and was so upset when that was canceled.

I did not even know about Firefly until they talked about it on this blog last year. Then the show suddenly arrived from Netflix...

41   Claire   2007 Feb 7, 2:31pm  

Unfortunately for Firefly, it was not shown primetime, so it did not pick up a huge fan base quick enough to stop the show from being canned.

42   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 2:35pm  

Unfortunately for Firefly, it was not shown primetime, so it did not pick up a huge fan base quick enough to stop the show from being canned.

Too bad. :(

Well, at least it got a movie. What other canceled shows get a movie? :)

43   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 2:36pm  

Again, if you can’t afford it without a “voodoo” loan, don’t buy it, and try to make more money.

This is why I am a JBR. And I will grow old with gray hair. Homeowners will be immortal because they will never age.

See, immortal homeowners + new babies + they are not making any more land = prices will never go down.

Not advice of any kind

44   StuckInBA   2007 Feb 7, 2:36pm  

The spring bounce that will test your resolve ! How true. I was fully expecting the following report. (Be prepared to hear more from the RE bulls on this one.)

http://www.sanjoseproperty.com/newsletter.html

From my anecdotal evidence, the gist of the report is indeed true. People are catching the falling knife. The arguments I have heard are same as FaceReality gives. In one line - no crash has happened, so it won't happen.

(The people I talked to were tired of waiting for the crash, stock market is good, there is still no shortage of funny money and some wanted to take advantage of buyer's market and buy before the prices go again in spring. Their words, not mine.)

I honestly have no problem with it. I won't mind if people get into bidding wars again and the frenzy pushes even the last bear into buying. I have never told anyone to not buy, and I will not. It's their money, not mine.

45   Claire   2007 Feb 7, 2:39pm  

Peter P - not many get a movie, I think the hope was that if the movie was a blockbuster, then the networks would pick the series up again. There are quite a few websites dedicated to Firefly and the "browncoats".

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