patrick.net

carlorossi,

The money migrated from one bubble to the next. Retrospectively it makes sense.

There seemed to be a slight downturn in real estate in the city in 2001. Rents collapsed, lots of liquidity appeared in the money supply, the bubble mentality prevailed and jumped from tech stocks to real estate.

Just assume that people are greedy, want to use their houses appreciation to subsidize their lifestyle, and aren't very rational thinkers when it comes to money decisions. The real estate bubble then makes total sense.

"Million dollar question: will TV make me fat? "

Only if you're on it.

I find it hard to believe that BA house would beat a house in Italy, provided that they're of equal value in 2001. The Euro has almost doubled against the US. Even if that farm house stayed at the same price in Euro, it would have doubled in USD.

Peter P,

My favorite is what my old buddy calls "baccalada"(sp?)

Extra virgin olive oil

2 whole garlic

crushed rep pepper

2 cans anchovy fillets

sprinkle with toasted Italian Style (TM) bread crumbs

Man is it good! (Kind of stinks up the house for a while) but who CARES!

Great for pasta or even just dipping bread in.

Yes TV makes you fat. That'll be one "meellion" thank you.

"The real estate bubble then makes total sense"

Stay current with NAAVLP payment.

Fund lifestyle via MEW.

Take out trash, become meellionaire!

What's not to like? :)

astrid,

It's not nearly doubled yet, thankfully.

Did you see this?

"NEW YORK, Feb 8 (Reuters) - Luxury home builder Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL.N: Quote, Profile , Research) said on Thursday it expects quarterly orders and home-building revenue to fall significantly and sees a greater-than-expected charge to write down land values, sending its shares lower by nearly 4 percent.

For about a year, home building has fallen off sharply as the U.S. housing demand dropped due to high prices and interest rates. Investors, home builders and other industry watchers have been looking for signs of a trough.

Editors Choice: Best pictures"It does not look better," Majestic Research analyst John Tomlinson said."

"demand dropped due to high prices and interest rates"

So...... 6 and 3/8ths was all it took to kill this thing?

OK, I just spoke to my brother in upstate NY, they got about four feet of snow the past couple of days. There are reasons the real estate is cheap there.

SFWoman,

Yeah, I'm an idiot for confusing the exchange rate of Pound for the Euro.

Still, more than 30% appreciation against the dollar, I don't see what Mr. Tuscan Farmhouse has to worry about.

astrid,

Because the closest Mr. Under the Tuscan Sun has been to Italy is when he was drinking his Carlo and Rossi Sangria (TM)?

It's all the rage w/FB's! That and Top Ramen (TM)

So people were using ARMs in the BA 3 years ago, my husbands co-worker who always says how much his townhouse has gone up in value has just had to re-fi because his payments went up *a lot* - didn't get all the gory details, but I'm pretty sure that they re-fi'd to another ARM - 3 years ago the rates were really good for a 30 yr fixed - what was he thinking? Luckily he had equity in his house so he could re-fi.

We should be thanking all of these buyers who are catching the falling knives. They are allowing the market to create new comps. Comps which are LOWER than they were last year. This will keep the momementum swinging back towards the longterm trend line.

Also, anyone ever notice how the housing bulls always imply that a renters life sucks? Why is that? I sold my house a month ago and am LOVING renting. I rent a house which is 40% larger, I am in a better city/neighborhood, and am saving $200 a month versus what I paid as an "owner" not counting maintenance etc. I have seen the articles and countless examples of why buying is better than renting long term. I agree with these articles. However, in the short term, housing seems to be overpriced and I refuse to pay the premium necessary to purchase at this time.

DinOR, thanks for the recipe!

Stretch002 - that is exactly why we decided to not buy - we are in a much better neigborhood, with better schools and lower expenses than if we had bought something.

JBR is a social disease, don't yah know? Even worse, it's like Syphilis - you can pass it to your spouse, your kids, your "intimate" friends. Some *experts* observed school delinquincy, impotence, nymphomania, inordinate blogging time and sanity amongst the JBR population.

Of course, people will catch the proverbial falling knives, 'specially when there ain't much velocity.

IF and when the "meltdown" comes, no one will be interested in bottom fishing. Most of you will rather continue renting.

The psychology will be intense.

Now just b/c CFC and TOL happen to be down hard (so far) I don’t want your new found faith in the PPT shaken! (It’s still plenty early!)

They are recovering from their losses as I write this :-( I like a juicy conspiracy theory as much as any person in the blogsphere, so PPT is fun to talk about. The price action in these stocks is simply an amazing spectacle.

Now watch that NEW ! Down over 28% in a day.

It's a gratifying and entertaining show. Can we keep a moment of silence for the investors and creditors who sacrificed so much to help people achieve their "American Dream" ?

Peter P,

www.italiancookingandliving.com

Go to "Browse Recipes" then "misc. sauces" then:

"Bread Crumb and Anchovy Sauce from Siracusa"

For some odd reason my buddy (name ends in "i" so he must know what he's talking about) swears it's called "baccalada".

There are a few (very few) but important nuances in the recipe. The anchovy fillets should be broken up w/a fork and the oil really FLIES when they hit the pan! Watch out!

Not culinary advice!

I love Italian food.

Anchovy is amazing. I especially like the white ones.

SFWoman,

So sorry about the Cipriani. Though I don't know for certain, I expect Da Fiore takes the same view.

And either Harry's hardly classifies as a hot tip. I'm fired.

I am going to Vegas soon. Any new restaurants worth trying?

StuckinBA,

How about an additional moment of silence for all those MB's commission checks that are sure to bounce! Geez that's an ugly chart. They'd been talking about all morning on CNBC but I had no idea. FUGLY! :)

So - HSBC have been stupid and are now tightening their lending standards, how many others will, and what will the knock-on effect be (how big do you think) for all those people banking on re-fi'ing their ARM resets this year?

SP

Someone needs to tell them sell and rent in a good school district - got to be less than owning a house and paying for private school - however, will they be able to sell (easily)?

SP,

(From previous threads and recurring themes)

This is exactly why MAX MID (TM) doesn't work for most people (even though I take it the place you describe is less than prestigious). This is a hangover from the 80's that just refuses to die! Sadly all too often this is how it ends up. :(

“But he has two kids, so the daycare expenses will eat up most of what she earns. And he will need to buy a new car if she starts working.

Tries to get wife back to work (after three years at home). Does the math Income minus Taxes minus daycare expenses minus new car. Oh shit. And that is IF she gets a job.”

This seems to be an extremely common mindset in the U.S. and I just don't understand it. They've actually done the math and two incomes is basically a wash financially vs. one with mom-at-home. And to do it they're going to have to pawn off your kids on some daycare, and they'll both be much more stressed due to less flexibility, less face time together as a family, more scheduling conflicts, less time for errands & chores, more meals out, etc.

If your overall quality of life and ability to parent is WORSE OFF with two incomes, then why do it?? I just don't get it. Must be some especially virulent strain of mental accounting/affluenza I've (luckily) never been infected with.

Two-income works only if you are a DINK.

Daycare costs are substantial.

“buy a home, otherwise your hair will go gray”

The statement "if you do not buy a house you will grow old and die" is TRUE though.

You know, in the end, nothing matters but your own well being.

But what is well-being? Is it the same as being well-fed?

What is a happy life?

What is happiness?

Dang,

I'm late to the party... someone mentioned curry and I wasn't reading!

The spread of curry came about because of the spread of Buddhism throughout Asia. The monks from India brought curry to China, Vietnam and Thailand, the monks from China brought curry to Korea and Japan. Japanese and Korean curry is very similar as are Vietnamese and Thai. I do agree that Chinese curry is weak.

Really, cultures are spread by the availability of information. Even as recent as the mid 90s, Europeans dressed very differently than folks in Australia, the US or Asia. With the proliferation of the internet, information became so readily available that everyone started to dress the same. And its a damn shame if you ask me. Youth tend to dress like urban hip-hoppers. 30-40 somethings all BR and Gapped out, Boomer nerds all dress like the parents from the OC. And you'll find this in Germany, France, Japan and other "modernized" countries.

Scratch that last comment, I thought GC wrote "My average income is not enough to support two people to live a happy life".

Never mind :-), sorry GC!

Hmm, I would think Japanese curry is closer to Indian curry than Chinese curry.

People in their 20’s want a lot of things. There are two causes for this phenomenon.

I like things because I have Taurus rising.

Claire :

This NEW and HSBC is a big news. I feel like jumping with joy.

Mortgage banksters are like terrorists - if one goes away, some other comes on as a replacement. But it's hard to replace NEW and HSBC. They are in top 5 subprime lenders.

Now HSBC is "readjusting" its lending practices. And guess what will happen to the endless liquidity stream that was flowing to NEW ? For them, the liquidity can vanish in a blink.

NEW will suffer as more bond holders demand them to repurchase it back. And they will not find new idiots. There will be shareholder lawsuits and I won't be surprised if they go down under in a year or so.

Both of them will have a noticeable effect on subprime lending. The credit bubble deflation is now picking up speed. More and more analysts are going to be "surprised".

StuckinBA:

It's still like watching paint dry though - But HSBC is a big name and will hopefully start making Wall Street (and maybe some investors) sit up and notice how things are going. I wonder how many other big banks are taking a look at their books - would it be better to declare any losses or write downs now (i.e try and price in the news) or to wait for a while?

I am proposing a new housing bubble term: JBO
Jealous Bitter Owner

HelloKitty,

Not bad --personally, I'm more partial to JBH (Jealous Bitter Homedebtor) or JBL (Jealous Bitter Loanowner), as they don't really "own" anything except a monstrous loan.

"like watching paint dry"

Claire, dear, this is as much fun as you can have with your clothes on!

"Somebody" had a short position on NEW and pocketed 28% today!

These guys have not only enabled the bubble in a BIG way but they also carved out a really great living while many of us in technology, airlines etc. have been struggling to put our work lives back on track. Not only that, they were so smug and attributed the horse shoe inserted in their anus to "skills".

"I say..... they bought their tickets, let 'em crash"!

DinOr,

You do realize that I was being sarcastic, don't you? There is nothing that is going to stop house prices from falling. However, you have these idiots who are going to start class action suits and I'm sure they will get something for being "scamed" so to speak; with so many people in that same boat, you can only expect more lawsuits in the not so distant future.

To pay out these FB's, this will most certainly push more lenders to go bankrupt as a result and with all the more MBS's failing with lenders that are no longer around to buy them back, who do you think will be stuck paying the bill?

Just a thought.