patrick.net

allah,

He foresaw MASSIVE defaults and offered his services (for a fee of course) but what I don’t get is if this Bellevue, WA couple was THAT concerned about the financial impacts of their NAAVLP loan why didn’t they just get a freaking amoritizing loan for crissakes!? Or does that atone for the “Helenite” arrogance?

Everyone profits in one way or another. The fact is, if the lenders didn't take advantage of these people using suicide loans, Gill wouldn't have anything to sell! Even those who appear to be helping are profiting. Had his company been a non-profit organization or if he was fighting the industry in the courts to stop all this lending, I would take a different view of him, but I haven't heard about anything like this, have you?

He has offered a limited time subscription to use his software free, but that was just to promote it.

They hurt different people differently.

Yes it is true; but they both hurt people. The printing presses will hurt the savers while the taxes will hurt the whole middle class!

Savers, what savers? Oh, you mean us here. They don't care about us.

allah,

Hey don't get me wrong, I'm not promoting Gill! He just has totally different take on debt and actually advocates paying off your mortgage, not leaning on it forever.

What the article said was that he offered some sort of "neg. am. freak out-o-meter" that told FB's when they were going to begin to have excess neg. equity, when their payment would be adjusted AND the exact day the sheriff would foreclose. I never saw anything like that on the guy's web-site!

My point, in a broader sense was wouldn't it be easier to just get a regular loan that has an end to it? Or... does it make more sense to have software to "monitor" your NAAVLP to eternity? :(

Sriram Gopalan Says:

> As one of the few “big L” Libertarians in this forum,
> I would hate to have to bail out FBs with my tax money.
> But having come to know this country, I am also darn
> sure that will happen.
> Anyone who makes money of these bubbles considers
> himself a genius but when he loses money, he is a victim.

Since most FBs don’t “bribe” (I mean “contribute to”) the politicians they probably won’t get bailed out, but the big banks and other that pay “protection money” (also known as perfectly legal “campaign contributions”) will probably end up with boat loads of our tax money as usual…

P.S. It is not just American’s that loose money that play the “victim” card these days. Today on the way in to the office I heard a bunch of gay guys on the radio who were “shocked and outraged” that some NBA player “does not like them”… Why does any “group” car if an NBA player (or Mel Gibson, or that guy from the Seinfeld show) likes them?

GC,

Huh?

Please, do NOT explain! :(

GC,

The ultimate trophy wife would be well bred, very attractive, well educated and have had a meaningful career that either made money or did good in the world. That would be the ultimate wife that a guy could show off.

That's not what I am talking about here. My neighborhood trophy wives are more of the 'Bowling Trophy' variety. Decidely not well bred women who through good looks, certain talents and plastic surgery were able to escape from the typing pool during some affluent man's midlife crisis. Some have children, whom they immediately dump onto an abused nanny who tells all (surgeries! affairs! dirty secrests!) at the playground. Be nice to your help girls (hairdressers and waiters too), because you won't believe the things they tell me.

FAB,

In your estimation was a lot of what we saw on Bloomberg/CSAPN just so much "grand standing" where reps feign concern for their constituents?

SFWoman Says:

> I need some software for my neighborhood that can
> tell a trophy second wife when she is about to be
> dumped for the younger upgrade wife. I could make
> a fortune selling it at certain luncheons.

You don’t need software you just need to ask a few questions:

1. Do both of us come from families where all (or almost all) our grandparents, parents, aunts, uncles, brothers and sisters are happily married and have never been divorced?

2. Do both of us come from families where all (or almost all) our relatives live healthy active lives (they eat well and keep fit)?

3. Do both of us have the same religious beliefs (and strong character)?

4. Do both us have our shit together (graduated from college, good stable job, self supporting, no consumer debt, etc.)?

I do not know (or have even heard of) anyone who answered yes to all four questions before getting married that got dumped for a younger wife (or richer husband)…

P.S. I forget where I saw the study, but the divorce rate for people with married parents, who got married after graduating from college and are the same religion was under 10%...

SFWoman,

Yeah, true that. But you you can't be "too lean" with da' goods! The service people in your life like to feel that they are in some way connected and seem to appreciate a little dirt once in a while. After it's all PK anyway, where's the harm?

I mean, what are the chances the guy that rotates and balances your tires is going to move in the same circles as some floosie receptionist that's already been fired anyway?

FAB,

Your study can predict 'Will he leave?' but not "WHEN will he leave?". These girls need time to prepare for their next act.

FormerAptBorker, i agree with you. South park had a good episode a while ago about tolerance. The word itself implies that it is something that you "tolerate" and that doesn't necessarily mean you have to accept or endorse it. But we seem to have reached a stage where everyone has to absolutely like everyone else and I dont get it.

I am sure there are a lot of folks who don't like (and with good reason!) Could I go around accusing them of being intolerant?

Anyway, getting back to the topic, if the impact of the housing bust is going to be widespread and if there is enough of a stink raised, the government will bail them out using tax money.

After all, stock investors didn't bribe the politicians either but they got bailed out the last time by Al Greenspan and that lead to the current bubble.

Essentially, one bubble was replaced by another to soften the impact and I don't know if Ben Bendover will find another bubble to replace the real estate one. If he does, what would that be? Maybe that should be the next thread - What is the next bubble gonna be?

DinOR,

Egads, I just had my hair cut this week and the hairdresser, receptionist and shampoo girl gave me so much dirt on a couple of people it was unbelievable. I'm nice to them, tip well, and remember them at Christmas. A lot of people are snotty to them, tip poorly, and even pretend not to see them outside of the salon (and I have been told who these people are), yet the same people tell all of their dirt to the hairdresser! They complain to her about their husband's affairs or his inattention to them, then snub her at holiday parties. What are they thinking.

Oh, and the two young socialites in town, who all of the social climbers are always trying to get to be friends with, are really nice to my hairdresser. The girls trying to get to them are not. One of the snottiest even moved her kid to a different school to try to get her kid to have playdates with the other woman's child. Pathetic.

OK, this was not real estate related at all, sorry.

SFWoman,

RE related or not that is DAMN funny! Agreed, "What are they thinking"

It's just so much easier for guys, all you have to say is: "Hey, I'm buyin'!"

palo alto renter,

Thanks. What's more, can we take the "trading stops" out once and for all. It's a market, if you don't want to be here well then you should be free to sell your positions and take your remaining cash elsewhere. :)

Good to see your "attitude" coming around.

GC Says:

> What is a trophy wife anyway?
> Is she typically well-born and/or properly brought
> up? Or is she just a pretty woman?

Then SF Woman Says:

> The ultimate trophy wife would be well bred, very
> attractive, well educated and have had a meaningful
> career that either made money or did good in the world.
> That’s not what I am talking about here. My neighborhood
> trophy wives are more of the ‘Bowling Trophy’ variety.
> Decidedly not well bred women who through good looks,
> certain talents and plastic surgery were able to escape
> from the typing pool during some affluent man’s midlife crisis.

I’ve always said the ultimate “Trophy Wife” (who can be a first wife) is the type of good looking active girl who can catch a fish with a fly rod and prepare a great lunch on the last day of a three day backpacking trip in the Desolation Wilderness area before hiking back to the cabin on the West Shore where she hosts a League to Save Lake Tahoe fundraiser (remembering the names of everyone there and whispering in my ear the last time we met them).

A “Bowling Trophy Wife” (who is almost always a 2nd or 3rd wife) is the type of generally good looking (in a kind of creepy over made up way) non active girl who will charge $10K on your credit cards at little Tahoe City boutiques while you are backpacking then complain about how you are never around while finishing off a bottle of wine watching the cater set up League to Save Lake Tahoe fundraiser (knowing the designer of every persons outfit and whispering in your ear that she wants to go to Aspen next week to buy similar outfits).

SFWoman,

You mean like a Divorce Clock? Or better yet, a diamond studded Omega divorce watch.

Being rather mechanically inept, might I suggest the Divorce Quadrants?

"As seen in marketing, politics, management, and many other places, the Divorce Quadrants determines the four signs that lets you know your marriage is coming to an end, helps you decide your next step and increase your odds of getting a big divorce settlement.

Quadrants are:

Number of plastic surgery procedures during the past 36 months. (Including touch-ups. Procedures to correct prior procedures count as double).

Ugliness of husband's wig. (realistic, faux, dead muskrat…)

Cumulative attractiveness of current household servants, personal assistants, trainers, secretaries, etc.

How much do you hate your spouse, really!

SFWoman Says:

> FAB, Your study can predict ‘Will he leave?’ but not
> “WHEN will he leave?”. These girls need time to prepare
> for their next act.

Women I know hate the “used car analogy” but will usually eventually admit it is true. A small number of men get one car and keep it until they die and a small number of men get a new car every year or two.

Most men get a new car when is stops looking good and becomes a pain in the ass. Since it is a lot harder (and more expensive) to “trade in” a wife a lot more men keep the same wife until they die.

Most men don’t start “shopping” for a younger wife until the current wife stops looking good and becomes a pain in the ass (and even if the guy does “trade in for a newer model” good looking fit older ladies that are not a pain in the ass are the first to sell on the “used car lot”)…

What is a trophy wife anyway?

I thought it is illegal to hunt humans.

"Cumulative attractiveness"

As much as it pains me to admit, that's a sure fire sign astrid!

"Meet my (drop dead gorgeous) assistant"

I will say though that it's always fun to mess with those guys even years later when the receptionist BECOMES the trophy wife by constantly having to "catch" and correct yourself! "Oh that's r i g h t ! Your w i f e. I swear one of these days I'm going to get it right!" :)

After all, I bail out old people who didn’t save enough for retirement, with social security!

That's not really true - you get social security payments no matter what your net worth. So... a more accurate statement would be "After all, I transfer my income to old people through Social Security."

I bail out poor people who have less to offer society, by paying way more taxes than them!

There's sort of an inherent contradiction there - how would someone with $0 income pay more taxes than someone with $1 income?

DinOR,

There was a lawyer at my husband's first law firm (in Boston) who married five times, all but the first were his secretary with whom he was having an affair. Each secretary was simply replaced by the next. They all were different types, he seemed to have this thing where he really, really relied on his secretary for everything.

Can you imagine the alimony?

There is also a shortcut. When your appearance rates close to that of the last ex at the time of her dumping, you know your time is short.

Did everyone see the great news today?

http://www.burbed.com/2007/02/15/south-bay-is-1-again/
The most expensive market in the latest report was San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif., where the median home price $760,000. That was up $20,000, or 2.7 percent from a year

We're #1!
We're #1!
We're #1!

Remember, every time the median goes up, an angel gets its wings.

SFWoman,

Geez! Was it on the job application for chrissakes? In fairness to some of these gals I've seen many an office where if the off. mgr. calls in sick it's a LOT more disorganized than when "the man" hisself is a no show.

astrid,

Would you rec. the "dumpee" seek the services of one of those "age enhanced" photography technicians in advance?

My wife insisted I visit "True Age.com" and their little survey says I'm living on borrowed time. Bail! Bail! :(

Like Rodney used to say, "When I die they're gonna donate my body to science....... fiction!

I don’t want a government bailout at all. I want people to feel the pain of their screw-up. Maybe if enough people get burned, our collective conscience will remember the pain for longer than last weeks "American Idol" performances.

I know that if held accountable, these people will be financial serfs for years due to the bankruptcy law changes. Hell I would love to see all the toxic loans that end up default investigated. If ANY fraud is found, I want people going to jail and then paying their debt off when they get out as financial serfs. This BS has kept me out of a house because I can’t in good fiscal sense buy a home that is 10x my annual income!

When the government does make a bail out, and I do expect it, I want all the properties turned into Section 8 housing. I want to go all out and make these McMansions in upscale areas to be used by the poorest of people. With the huge inventory of empty homes anyway, we should get some use out of them. It would be wonderfully humbling to the people around them :)

nutty,

Just have them work off their debt. I don't want to pay the tax bill for having 10% of the country in jail.

I do wonder if the rightful resentment of individuals - or whole regions of the country - who have had no part in the credit bubble will get a proper airing when bailouts are proposed. Could Missouri demand that Florida take care of its own damned problems?

I can't remember who but one of the senators was asking BB how he felt about (I guess in particular the 2/28 loans) and the rising foreclosures in NY where employment has been strong?

He responded that he WAS concerned but quickly added that he was ALSO concerned about the financial institutions that wrote those loans too! I believe BofA already is rolling out a "no fees swap out of your adjustable loan program" among other major banks as well. He's more concerned about banks than FB's. Did I really need to say that?

Bay Area housing market continues its slump

http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/02/15/BUGRRO5D624.DTL

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070215/bernanke_congress.html?.v=11

Fed Chairman Challenged on Inflation

http://www.dqnews.com/RRBay0207.shtm

The latest DQ numbers are out.

Bruce raises an important point. I was back in the Midwest again a few weeks ago. Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, etc. are getting hammered early in the housing decline. There are tons of huge homebuilder developments, carved out of farmland, sitting there with unfinished streets and no houses, having been abandoned in land option contracts by the builders. An aunt of mine just sold her house in my old hometown. Her house maybe appreciated 15% since 2001, but she couldn't get a price even near that. She had to sell for more like mid-90s prices (luckily she's lived there since the 1960s).

These folks never participated in the fun and games, but they are taking the biggest and earliest relative dollar punch. Perhaps they should send bills for damages to the bubble states, or the subprime lenders...

Looks like an all time record folks!

Did anyone see this software that is out that will determine an FB’s expiration date?

No more "Buy now, before it gets unaffordable".

The new mantra is "Sell now, before it gets unaffordable".

Idea:

Is it worth trying to maintain a comprehensive list at patrick.net of all known housing bubble blogs and websites out there? Once you populated it the first time, the rate of change would be quite slow. This would be akin to the list of articles, but much less work...

Maybe if enough people get burned, our collective conscience will remember the pain for longer than last weeks “American Idol” performances.

30% of Americans do not remember what year September 11th happened in...

and you expect them to remember something like this?

FWIW, on October 2001, The Onion posted this classic "article":

http://www.theonion.com/content/node/28129?issue=4228&special=2001

A few years later, we're still talking about Britney, Michael, and Tom.

So sad.

Dallas is really strange - I just ran the numbers I found on it, and it looks like Housing prices have substantially outstripped the "reasonable" housing prices since 1994.

I'll publish some graphs on burbed.com next week to show what I'm talking about.

The desperate attempts to spin still continue.

From the CNN article referred above
"Right now, buyers are responding to seller pricing and incentives, and there's a bit of a pent-up demand as a result of buyer hesitation during the second half of 2006," she said in the group's statement. "We're not looking for big changes, but a gradual rise in sales and home prices is projected - that will be good for the overall housing market and related industries."

And DQ is bent on showing that they are no less than DL
``Bay Area home prices are settling into a plateau,'' said DataQuick's John Karevoll.

And I add on my own ...
In a separate interview, both NAR and DQ analysts said that they do not read the newspaper and unaware of the changes happening in the mortgage industry.