patrick.net

However, it also seems that as soon as prices drop a little, the number of buyers on the sidelines willing to jump back in increase…

Because credit crunch is JUST started. Once it gets underway in any meaningful way, the springboard vanishes and buyers won't be able to jump much.

Somebody asked about data for 91-97.

We bought in 89. The earthquake didn't matter, but the housing bubble did. By 91 we were under water till at least about 94, probably even in 97.

We paid the ownership premium for much of that time. Eventually rents caught up to our housing cost, but it was only because we could refinance with a lower rate in the meanwhile, because when we bought the rates were 8+ %, so they had room to go down. All the while, our downpayment money was not appreciating. It would have though in even the most conservative of savings vehicles.

Someone Says:

> Remember, there are very few people who HAVE to buy.
> But there will always be more people who HAVE NO
> CHOICE but to sell. Add foreclosures to your analysis
> and see where it leads you.

Don’t forget most of the guys developing the 5,000+ condos (as reported at http://www.socketsite.com/) that will soon hit the market in San Francisco are in the HAVE to sell group and there are a lot of people that “don’t” HAVE to sell but will “decide” to sell (to cash out gains) when prices start to fall (adding more homes and condos to the mix to compete with the 5,000+ new condos)…

Then Joe_renter Says:

> The problem is, you need to also take into account those
> who will come in and buy up “rental properties” with cash
> just to add to their investment. I know there are limited people,
> but they are there. People who live up in Los Altos Hills
> actually work.

I’ve been around the rental property investment world my entire life and the only time I’ve ever heard of a real estate investor paying all cash for a property was on this BLOG when either SF Woman or Randy H mentioned some wealthy wives that were buying nice well located property for all cash.

If you bought a typical $1.5mm SF Peninsula 3br 2ba you would GROSS $24-36K a year (a 1.6-2.4% cash on cash return). With property taxes at ~$17,250, a 5% vacancy/collection loss at $1,200-1,800 and typical expenses (other than taxes) ~$4K the actual annual cash on cash return will drop to ~$2K - $13K (a 0.1% - 0.8% return).

With prices on the way down I think that most people with a lot of cash will stick with CDs and/or Money Markets where $1.5mm will pay them more per “month” than they will make in the next “decade” owning an overpriced Bay Area rental property…

I think that picture of the frazzled-looking bird just might be emblematic of the average hapless, helpless Silicon Valley ARM buyer of the last couple of years: a bunch of Ostriches & Turkeys ready for the roast, and, for the most part, oblivious to the sad fact...

allah,

Thanks for linking that article. You bring up some good points where median price is concerned. I too, have long challenged the value and validity of median price, it's a tool, not the holy grail.

Even in OR we've seen isolated pockets such as FAB described occuring in Burlingame. I'm not sure an 1,100 sq. ft home on a 10k sq. ft. lot is the best use of our resources either? I also don't have a thing in the world against a guy going in there and putting TWO homes and making an honest buck at it! If someone is willing to pay for it, wth!

But PLEASE don't tell me the median is rising! When particular areas (or in our case, whole towns!) get a complete make-over it really is apples and oranges! Our rinky-dinky far flung Portland bedroom community was once home to the world's largest lumber mill and one of the oldest town west of the Mississippi. Since people that make "toothpicks out of logs" don't make a lot of money most homes were 2bd/1ba or 3/1 and maybe 1,000 sq. ft.

Now that we've become the "Carmel of Oregon" nothing under 2,500 s/f is being built. Since we're not running out of land (yet) the older stock is being converted to rentals (much of it built in the 20's and 30's). We've become basically a "new" town in that regard (but it doesn't stop people from asking outrageous money for their old 2/1 when they upgrade). Citing the rise in median price of course.

palo alto renter,

Don't take this the wrong way but better men than I have wasted many precious minutes trying to "reason" w/theotherside. If only he could bring something (anything!) of value to the table! All I've ever gotten was realtorspeak etc.

FAB,

You need to plug realistic numbers in there. No 3/2 house rents for $2k on the peninsula, deifinitely not a $1.5M house.

Here is a house that would probably go for about $1.5M:

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/pen/apa/279561382.html

As you can see, it rents for $3,750. But even upping it to that, only gives 2% ROI. So I don't know anyone with any financial sense that would do that.

It will be great to see if anybody has any data from what happened in 91-97…Did CA experience a slow or fast recovery after hitting bottom?

A slow one. The data has been available on my blog for over a year and a half now.

And all your no-arbitrage investment class stuff is not well directed. I have forever maintained that housing is neither consumption nor investment, by technical definition, it is a form of consumer savings. Consumption only occurs when the asset is sold or leveraged for credit. But the asset class itself represents a savings profile to non-business individuals.

palo alto renter,

It's no accident that AMT is so "murky". What CH needs to calculate is the American Taxpayer Threshold of Pain. Until there's a national outcry, don't look for change. Again what absolutely befuddles me is that we're hardly the only ones complaining about AMT and yet FB's are having their day in court before US? With AMT impacting more filers each year you'd think that a more unified voice would arise?

Is it simply that FB's bitch louder? Better? More often?

"just another "no" on TurboTax" LOL!

And we can't wait to click through 'em!

Tax Loss Re-Capture for Alt. Fuels Expolration (IRS Form ____)

Uh...... NOPE! Next!

You're right Person, the whole FB "fast track" has all the ear markings of Ma and Pa and homesteading and the like whereas AMT is just us gettin' whats we's deserves.

Person,

Oh and I was sorry to hear she passed away recently. A fighter to the end! We will miss her. :(

palo alto renter :

I have a secret admiration for AMT. I hope it is NEVER indexed to inflation and every walking soul in this country is subject to it. It is as close to flat taxation as we can get.

It's very hard for a 2-income family in CA to not get hit by AMT. Just the income by itself does not determine if you fall under AMT. It's the deductions. Since the state income tax is so high, deductions can get high and .... BANG ... you are forced to move over to AMT.

In that case, buying a house loses one incentive - deduction of property tax. And the interest earned on the down payment is taxed at a lower marginal rate. From my anecdotal evidence, very few buyers are even aware of this.

AMT need to be either removed or severely readjusted. It is serving none of its original purpose and is currently acting a blue-stater/high achiever tax.

"AMT need to be either removed or severely readjusted. It is serving none of its original purpose and is currently acting a blue-stater/high achiever tax."

Why do "blue states" matter? Do they have higher local taxes or the opportunity for more deductions?

As you can see, it rents for $3,750. But even upping it to that, only gives 2% ROI. So I don’t know anyone with any financial sense that would do that.

If you assume hyperinflation is coming soon, it might.

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/sby/apa/278796184.html

You can rent this home in Los Altos Hills for $3k per month. Wow. Why buy?

Jimbo Says:

> FAB, You need to plug realistic numbers in there.
> No 3/2 house rents for $2k on the peninsula, definitely
> not a $1.5M house.

My parents are getting $2,200 a month for a home West of El Camino and were offered $1.5mm for the house in 2005. My sister lives in San Mateo paying a little over $2K West of El Camino on a street with recent sales in the $1.0-$1.6mm range.

> Here is a house (In Palo Alto) that would probably go for about $1.5M:
> http://sfbay.craigslist.org/pen/apa/279561382.html

Look at Craig’s list in Burlingame (with a median sale price of $1.38mm last month according to DQ) and you will find plenty of places to rent for around $2K.

It’s true you lose your property tax and other dedcution on AMT, but it doesn’t mean your tax bill is increased by tax rate*(property tax + deduction) because AMT has its own deduction.

Very true. The loss of incentive is not that straight-forward. As you say, plugging in faux numbers in Turbo Tax would give a clearer picture.

I should also clarify. I am not for AMT. I am just trying to find +ves in it. I would prefer SIMPLE and FLAT taxation with no deductions (not even state income tax etc), no deferred taxes (no 401K plan) and no other BS. Since that is not ever going to happen, I prefer everyone has to pay AMT - rather than abolishing it.

IMHO, AMT is not as horrible as the media makes it out to be, though nobody likes to pay extra taxes. We do a good amount of tax projections here and for those that fall into AMT, the difference between AMT and regular tax is usually only a few percent of total taxes.

NTA

Uh..... they're BACK!

I don't know if anyone has had the chance but Mortgage Imploder guy had some great articles about how defaults and downgrades are "bleeding" over from subprime! CFC's "Alt-A" paper is being put under review for a credit downgrade. Hmm.... :)

IMHO, AMT is not as horrible as the media makes it out to be, though nobody likes to pay extra taxes.

And what the media does not address is - how is the tax revenue shortfall going to be filled if AMT is abolished. Is there any viable answer that is likely to get majority support ? Hence I don't expect AMT to go away.

If I understand StuckinBA's post correctly, then I must say I largely agree with his conclusion. At this point in time, funneling more money into BA would just lead to a bigger property/credit/dot.comish bubble.

I actually like a completely flat federal tax system (though I know characterization is an even bigger part of the tax dodge game), though I think it needs to apply equally to capital gains and earned income. There's no reason why the Paris Hiltons of the world are paying at a lower tax rate than hard working med school grads and whatnot.

SP,

You're in "rare form" today! Good to see ya'! :)

SP,

I must buy now or I'm going to miss out on at least $100K of tax free appreciation a year...

Obstinant FBs remind me of the girl who was counting her chicken before they hatched.

Has anyone seen this? Can someone tell me how housing sales can be sharply down and sharply up at the same time across the nation? Is CNBC biased?

allah,

And get this, the quote is from: Hugh Johnson!

Yes, they're biased.

Allah,

Sounds like they mean down compared to Dec 05, but up compared to Nov 06. Nothing new here.

allah,

It's obvious, we live in a multiverse with numerous realities. We live in one and the FBs in another. We can glimpse at certain events in the FB reality, but due to fundamental differences between the two realities, we find their reality puzzling and incomprehensible.

I'm also looking forward to meeting Bizarro Randy H...

Allah,

Your link it to December's numbers. CNN was reporting on January's numbers.

I wasn't buying any of that talk at all, I just didn't realize that CNBC was so biased!

I thought it was kind of stupid when he said that the median was up so therefore the housing prices haven't dropped; that is kind of stupid!

I also watched the other video; how he said the Auto job market has crashed and alot of jobs were lost there, but we gained alot more jobs in other areas; but what are the salaries of these new jobs????

Just a comment or two regarding the estate tax...

So far as I know, justme, the estate tax has not been repealed. It does seem to me, however, that too much has been made of those who lose a modest- or mid-sized family enterprise to estate taxation.

My family's had a long-term, substantial interest in a mid-sized supply, warehousing and distribution company which long ago incorporated and was, until its sale to Goldman Sachs this January, closely held. Since the 1920s, it's been owned by our extended family, and has withstood a variety of inheritance taxation environments.

I consider that evidence enough that it has never been the fault of estate taxation when someone 'loses the farm' but, instead, an unwillingness to plan and take action.

There is now a boom in employment for repo men and foreclosure auctioneers. The companies that manufacture those battering rams used by local sheriffs to evict delinquent FBs are also cranking up production, completely offsetting all loses in auto mfg.

Everything is fine. Move along. Nothing to see here.

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Yeesh, so hostile! Those Google drones are probably putting finishing touches on a fantastic free Linux based OS...keep them there!

It is kind of funny how the Gates foundation dumped their house building stocks and invested heavily in ventilators and respiratory systems.

Smart move I think because when all these FB's lose all that equity, there will be a huge demand for this stuff!! :lol:

oops, forgot to close the link.

Look at this realtor trying to convince people that the housing market isn't in trouble.

DinOR Says: It’s no accident that AMT is so “murky”. What CH needs to calculate is the American Taxpayer Threshold of Pain. Until there’s a national outcry, don’t look for change. Again what absolutely befuddles me is that we’re hardly the only ones complaining about AMT and yet FB’s are having their day in court before US? With AMT impacting more filers each year you’d think that a more unified voice would arise?

Is it simply that FB’s bitch louder? Better? More often?

Taxpayers losing money to AMT are hurt themselves. This is capitalism. The individual is empowered and thus requires fewer protections.

On the other hand, F--ked Buyers losing their houses also severely injures banks and institutional lenders. The government is tied to banks, and it cares about how a sharp decline in mortgage backed securities would trash an already battered Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Large MBS losses it would be a huge national scandal if the MBS market dragged down the values of a bunch of mutual funds when their 401k/IRA investors didn't even know they held that junk in the first place. I'm not even talking like 80% losses here, I'm talking like 20-25%. That's enough to set most baby boomers back another 5-10 years of retirement. The outrage would be on the scale of Enron. And if it looks like the bust was caused by a regulatory failing, you can guess who everybody is going to blame. Not just the realtors, mortgage brokers or the banks. The voters are going to blame the U.S. government.

And that, my friends, is why Congress cares.

Although if timed correctly, the Republicans could live a ticking bundle of dynamite for the Democrats next year. :twisted:

Hey FormerAptBroker,

I need to move this July to the Penninsula. Currently I'm in South Bay.

When would I find the best rates? Before the summer (April?) or during the summer (June?)

Thanks!