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Ben Jones & Patrick: Psychics or Super-Geniuses?


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2007 Mar 6, 9:13am   19,087 views  179 comments

by HARM   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

Patrick's alter ego? Ben Jones - mathematical genius?

As the rolling bubble crash gathers steam, and even formerly hostile MSM sources now reluctantly admit the bubble --and its bursting-- is undeniably real, one question remains: how did people like Patrick Killelea and Ben Jones correctly predict all this so accurately beforehand?

Nearly two years ago, Ben and Patrick founded their now-famous blogs, dedicated to the national housing bubble. They boldly predicted its demise as "inevitable" long, long before most industry experts would even admit the bubble even existed. Now events are unfolding almost like clockwork, almost exactly as predicted:

  • Exhaustion and unaffordability leads first to falling sales & rising inventories, but very sticky prices (at first).
  • Inability to continue flipping and/or serially refinancing forces flippers and over-leveraged FBs to try to exit, spiking inventories and gradually un-sticking prices in successive waves of option-ARM resets.
  • Failure to indefinitely to hide default/foreclosure/repurchase losses off the balance sheets forces many sub-prime operators and MSB issuers out of business, drying up liquidity.
  • The MEW-ATM shutdown spills over into the general economy and either triggers a general recession, or at the very least, localized recessions in extreme-bubble regions.
  • The crash slowly grinds away over years, eroding homedebtor equity via a combination of inflation and nominal price drops, until the price-rent/price-income equilibrium is finally restored.
  • Finally, the rolling crash becomes obvious even to the most clueless FB and the cheerleading MSM. Newsweek issues it's "Housing: Worst Investment Ever!" cover story, close to the exact market bottom.
  • My questions: how could such seemingly average Joes ever predict such events when the brightest, most highly paid industry experts could not? I mean, David Lereah went from "no bubble" to "correction's over" in like 30 seconds flat! If the danger signs were so obvious, then why didn't we hear about them beforehand from the NAR... the Fed... Wall Street? It's not as if these frequently quoted (and rarely challenged) "industry experts" could possibly have known about this mess beforehand, but just kept it to themselves for some reason. Like, that's just conspiratorial, tinfoil-hat wing-nuttery, right?

    So, if the only way to perceive an asset/credit bubble is after-the-fact (as Sir Alan Greenspan has asserted), then how could Ben and Patrick possibly have known about it that far back? Are they psychic? Are these guys prescient modern-day Nostradamus-es? Or, are they financial super-wizards --real-life Hari Seldons-- who can accurately predict the future with mathematical precision, but posing as regular guys? If the housing bubble was so impossible to predict, even with access to the very best market data and cutting-edge computing power (as the experts insist it was), then how could two ordinary working-class stiffs manage to pull off such a feat by themselves?

    Should we be concerned that Patrick and Ben are some form of genetically mutated super-geniuses hiding in plain sight?? How else could they possibly have foreseen the unforeseeable?

    Spooky, isn't it? :roll:

    Discuss, enjoy...
    HARM

    #housing

    « First        Comments 80 - 119 of 179       Last »     Search these comments

    80   HeadSet   2007 Mar 7, 4:31am  

    "There should be no price control on taxi services. Drivers should be able to charge whatever he feels like so long as the fee schedule is known before the trip. "

    Bingo, Peter P!

    With today's tecnology, that would be easy. Punch in the destination and out pops a fare. Common destinations could be on an old fashioned fee menu.

    81   Peter P   2007 Mar 7, 4:33am  

    With today’s tecnology, that would be easy. Punch in the destination and out pops a fare. Common destinations could be on an old fashioned fee menu.

    Yep. It should be easy to set up a two-way bidding system using SMS technology.

    Want a cab? SMS dispatch with the route and a bid!

    82   e   2007 Mar 7, 4:36am  

    Highly entertaining exchange in the comments. Realtor tries to skewer with (and then falls upon) the it’s-different-here-sword…
    http://www.sfhomeblog.com/2007/03/if-you-do-fall-behind.html

    To be fair though, they -were- fighting about Central Valley.

    83   bikes2work   2007 Mar 7, 4:57am  

    PAR, have you tried this one for Bay Area listings?

    http://www.mlslistings.com/

    I always thought it worked pretty well.

    84   DinOR   2007 Mar 7, 5:00am  

    My favorite cab?

    CASH CAB!

    There's a thought! Jump in, agree to play and if you miss 3 trivia questions we'll kick ya' ta' the curb! Get 'em right and we'll give YOU cash! I love it!

    85   bikes2work   2007 Mar 7, 5:04am  

    Check out listing MLS#: 703508 on

    http://www.mlslistings.com/

    506 sq ft 53-year old cottage for $999,000 with Los Altos schools (2665 MILLER AV, MTN VIEW).

    86   mat   2007 Mar 7, 5:14am  

    So I am sitting in my office minding my own business, and suddenly there is a phone call.
    Nice automated voice saying that they have been trying to reach me because homeowners in my area are now prequalified for 1% interest rate refinancing, and that I can use this opportunity to pay off my other loans or take a f***ing vacation. Bad credit is apparently still OK.

    Oh and if I would like to take advantage of this wonderful opportunity, I should press "1" now.

    Really pissed me off. When will this crap end?

    87   OO   2007 Mar 7, 5:22am  

    Los Altos doesn't have a good high school, most Los Altos parents send their kids to private high schools, or they choose to buy the part of Los Altos bordering Cupertino to go to Cupertino's high school.

    Paying a mil for a shack on top of private school tuition bill, that is just lunacy. It also doesn't satisfy one's vanity, it is after all Mountain View address.

    88   HeadSet   2007 Mar 7, 5:24am  

    Hey DinOr,

    CASH CAB sounds great. We have in cab cameras that we can use to record the show.

    89   sfbubblebuyer   2007 Mar 7, 5:25am  

    When they can't sell those trash mortgages, which is starting to happen. Of course, Freddie claimed they'll by crap until September, but Bernanke is trying to imply that Fred and Fran will by nothing BUT crap in the future.

    Oiy.

    90   HeadSet   2007 Mar 7, 5:27am  

    "506 sq ft 53-year old cottage for $999,000 with Los Altos schools (2665 MILLER AV, MTN VIEW). "

    This has to be a joke, right? Even has a '60's Earl Sheib painted nerdmobile parked in the driveway.

    91   HARM   2007 Mar 7, 5:27am  

    Really pissed me off. When will this crap end?

    When the last toxic loan peddler files for Chapter 11. Which should not be too long from now:

    http://ml-implode.com/

    92   Different Sean   2007 Mar 7, 5:31am  

    Peter P Says:
    There should be no price control on taxi services. Drivers should be able to charge whatever he feels like so long as the fee schedule is known before the trip.

    Yeah, that's right, same for bus trips, too. The govt bus driver should be able to haggle with every passenger for every fare as they get on, then see if people change their minds and walk. Particularly with pensioners. That would be an efficient process at every bus stop...

    The grey market London cab drivers do just that, in fact -- they offer you a fixed price to get to somewhere, which you can of course accept or decline. Of course, you're getting into an unknown, unlicensed guy's car who might sexually assault you if it's night time...

    93   OO   2007 Mar 7, 5:32am  

    I agree with trader, salute to Patrick and Ben's moral courage.

    As for seeing the bubble, as someone who witnessed the housing bubble unfold in Japan and Hong Kong, I called the top earlier than most people since I was being over-cautious. Although I was very sure that this bubble would end ugly, and it would have horrifying ramifications on social and financial fronts impacting us all, I didn't have the courage to say it publicly, or even among so-so friends. I don't want to be seen as a social outcast, so even when I hear about downright stupid housing investment decisions at a party or over a dinner exchange, I just smiled and said, well done.

    Seeing the bubble and sticking to one's position is not hard, a lot of smart guys do that. But seeing the bubble and doing something about it, even though the action looked odd and goofy at that moment, such are the extraordinary quality that Patrick and Ben have that some of us lack.

    Also, thanks to whoever that makes blog possible. If there were no blogs, the bubble could have gone on even further because ordinary people would have no venue for voicing their opinions loud and clear to audience far and near that care to listen.

    94   Different Sean   2007 Mar 7, 5:34am  

    Further, there should be no consumer protections or consumer certainty in society. That's just boring. People don't want certainty and predictability, or safe neighbourhoods, they prefer to live by their wits and try to avoid getting ripped off or robbed 100 times a day to add a frisson...

    95   Different Sean   2007 Mar 7, 5:35am  

    uglily?

    96   OO   2007 Mar 7, 5:41am  

    ille_vir,

    what you said about drivers in Japan is actually common throughout Asia, particularly in China. I think it is a cultural thing. I had a chauffeur in China when I was there on assignment. I always reminded my chauffeur to keep a distance from the pedestrians, but he laughed at my naivety. If I had my way, I would have never been able to drive across a crossing. He was right.

    People don't watch traffic lights in China, so if you are polite and let the pedestrians cross, you will be stuck forever, literally. So my chauffeur's (and obviously all drivers') strategy was to appear very aggressive towards to pedestrians, threatening to run them over so that they would stop blocking the car. Of course sometimes you do run the risk of running someone over, so the driver has to be extremely skilled to be able to stop 2cm before actually hitting the person.

    I strongly advise against any tourist trying to rent a car and drive around in China, Japan or Korea. First, you can't possibly negotiate the narrow streets, second, you will get stuck at crossings forever.

    97   Different Sean   2007 Mar 7, 5:46am  

    It's great to watch Robert Kiyosaki learn about finances and economics *after* he started publishing his get rich books, much as anyone else would by careful reading and thought... the retrospective voice of wisdom... John T. Reed points out that RK's probably only worth 2-3 million based almost solely on sales of his books since the 90s -- a completely fabricated "success" story...

    98   HeadSet   2007 Mar 7, 5:53am  

    OO,

    That reminds me of driving in Sicilly. Everyone drives like a maniac in these tiny Fiats and if you make eye contact, the other guy will pull in front of you. Beep your horn and you can drive on the sidewalk. After a few months of Itilian style driving, we wold head back to England and be the jerks until we settled back into the most polite British road manners.

    99   Peter P   2007 Mar 7, 6:04am  

    I strongly advise against any tourist trying to rent a car and drive around in China, Japan or Korea.

    But Japan is not China. Japanese drivers do seem to be as courteous as me. I dare not cross any road in China.

    100   Different Sean   2007 Mar 7, 6:18am  

    Don't Chinese pedestrians just 'ignore' vehicles as a cultural habit and stagger onto the road expecting traffic to stop for them? Face-saving and all that, you know... One woman got run down recently because of it -- not even looking for traffic before crossing...

    My sis when living in HK found that drivers just ignored road rules like roundabout right of way etc -- which then translates into terrible driving when they go to Western countries...

    101   Peter P   2007 Mar 7, 6:21am  

    Luckily there aren't many roundabouts here.

    102   MtViewRenter   2007 Mar 7, 6:23am  

    Are roundabouts the same as totaries?

    103   Different Sean   2007 Mar 7, 6:24am  

    Peter P Says:
    Luckily there aren’t many roundabouts here.

    heh, yes, at least they've mastered going in a straight, uninterrupted line...

    104   MtViewRenter   2007 Mar 7, 6:24am  

    rotaries....

    105   Peter P   2007 Mar 7, 6:26am  

    Are roundabouts the same as rotaries?

    Yes. But of course, they "rotate" the other way over there. :)

    I think they can be used to replace semi-busy multi-lane 4-way stops though.

    106   Different Sean   2007 Mar 7, 6:26am  

    Are roundabouts the same as rotaries?

    Probably...

    107   Different Sean   2007 Mar 7, 6:30am  

    Roundabouts are often used on busy-ish single lane roads also, where right of way issues or hegemony of certain routes can be reduced, i.e. everyone gets a turn. Multi-lane roundabouts become a bit of a nightmare sometimes due to driver misunderstandings of which lane they should occupy to go left or right, when they can cut over, etc...

    108   Peter P   2007 Mar 7, 6:31am  

    Score is over-rated. Again, why do Asian parents want to ensure that their kids become the perfect employees?

    109   Peter P   2007 Mar 7, 6:32am  

    Multi-lane roundabouts become a bit of a nightmare sometimes due to driver misunderstandings of which lane they should occupy to go left or right, when they can cut over, etc…

    I am under the impression that a single-lane roundabout has as much throughput as a two-lane 4-way stop.

    110   sfbubblebuyer   2007 Mar 7, 6:43am  

    Peter P said :
    Score is over-rated. Again, why do Asian parents want to ensure that their kids become the perfect employees?

    Because they don't believe SS is going to be around and need a different financial net?

    111   Peter P   2007 Mar 7, 6:44am  

    Dont forget ARMs have yet to rest.

    LOL!

    112   Different Sean   2007 Mar 7, 6:45am  

    PAR Says:
    So let me get this straight. The government can create a licensing service that will guarantee that licensed drivers won’t assault you?

    No, of course not. There are a few more checks on licensed drivers in advance, they should have an ID on display, and it might be easier to catch them after the fact by investigating records. Now of course they are fitting tiny cams in cabs and even huge wrap around perspex screens to protect the driver (and possibly the passengers)... A cab driver was found guilty of a similar murder here recently also, but they are all licensed...

    113   Peter P   2007 Mar 7, 6:46am  

    Because they don’t believe SS is going to be around and need a different financial net?

    Especially because of that their kids need to do something drastically different from their peers. Getting into the right schools will no longer guarantee a good life.

    There is no financial net whatsoever any more.

    114   Different Sean   2007 Mar 7, 6:48am  

    I am under the impression that a single-lane roundabout has as much throughput as a two-lane 4-way stop.

    yes, it's probably much more efficient, as less waiting and more 'pipelining' of cars... and reduced likelihood of accidents and misunderstandings... but doesn't the american system of uncontrolled intersections have a 'first arrived, first to enter' rule? here, you have to always give way to the right at a 4-way stop...

    115   MtViewRenter   2007 Mar 7, 6:50am  

    I don't pretend to actually understand the advantages of a roundabout/rotary. We have a good number of them in Boston near where I grew up. There was always a lot of traffic backed up at the busy ones during rush hour, though not noticeably more than normal traffic lighted intersections.

    It was a lot of fun to go in full speed, swerve a little, then hit the gas and shoot out the other side, when traffic's light, of course. It's even more fun to do that with out-of-towners sitting next to you.

    116   Peter P   2007 Mar 7, 6:50am  

    I don’t pretend to actually understand the advantages of a roundabout/rotary.

    You know, I do like to pretend. ;)

    117   FormerAptBroker   2007 Mar 7, 6:51am  

    Even the mention of a small change from the current system in San Francisco where wealthy “medallion owners” pay off the politicians to keep the number of cabs and medallions low and profits high get’s (Comrade) Different Sean to say:

    > Further, there should be no consumer protections
    > or consumer certainty in society.

    It scares me that people like Different Sean think things would be better with more government regulation. Since the politicians are getting so much from the medallion holders I’m surprised that they don’t pass a law making all the cab companies drive Fords so they can extort money from Ford…

    118   Peter P   2007 Mar 7, 6:55am  

    Leaving aside the fact that there are people going round and round for ever in certain busy roundabouts not knowing how to get out, you are correct.

    See, it gives you the option to go around indefinitely while you decide which restaurant to go to. :)

    119   e   2007 Mar 7, 6:57am  

    Especially because of that their kids need to do something drastically different from their peers. Getting into the right schools will no longer guarantee a good life.

    But not getting into the right school might spell certain doom.

    This is a situation where the negatives risks are enormous. Remember: in the future in America, there will only be Director-level and above employees, and Big Box Store employees to service them.

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