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Ben Jones & Patrick: Psychics or Super-Geniuses?


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2007 Mar 6, 9:13am   19,413 views  179 comments

by HARM   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

Patrick's alter ego? Ben Jones - mathematical genius?

As the rolling bubble crash gathers steam, and even formerly hostile MSM sources now reluctantly admit the bubble --and its bursting-- is undeniably real, one question remains: how did people like Patrick Killelea and Ben Jones correctly predict all this so accurately beforehand?

Nearly two years ago, Ben and Patrick founded their now-famous blogs, dedicated to the national housing bubble. They boldly predicted its demise as "inevitable" long, long before most industry experts would even admit the bubble even existed. Now events are unfolding almost like clockwork, almost exactly as predicted:

  • Exhaustion and unaffordability leads first to falling sales & rising inventories, but very sticky prices (at first).
  • Inability to continue flipping and/or serially refinancing forces flippers and over-leveraged FBs to try to exit, spiking inventories and gradually un-sticking prices in successive waves of option-ARM resets.
  • Failure to indefinitely to hide default/foreclosure/repurchase losses off the balance sheets forces many sub-prime operators and MSB issuers out of business, drying up liquidity.
  • The MEW-ATM shutdown spills over into the general economy and either triggers a general recession, or at the very least, localized recessions in extreme-bubble regions.
  • The crash slowly grinds away over years, eroding homedebtor equity via a combination of inflation and nominal price drops, until the price-rent/price-income equilibrium is finally restored.
  • Finally, the rolling crash becomes obvious even to the most clueless FB and the cheerleading MSM. Newsweek issues it's "Housing: Worst Investment Ever!" cover story, close to the exact market bottom.
  • My questions: how could such seemingly average Joes ever predict such events when the brightest, most highly paid industry experts could not? I mean, David Lereah went from "no bubble" to "correction's over" in like 30 seconds flat! If the danger signs were so obvious, then why didn't we hear about them beforehand from the NAR... the Fed... Wall Street? It's not as if these frequently quoted (and rarely challenged) "industry experts" could possibly have known about this mess beforehand, but just kept it to themselves for some reason. Like, that's just conspiratorial, tinfoil-hat wing-nuttery, right?

    So, if the only way to perceive an asset/credit bubble is after-the-fact (as Sir Alan Greenspan has asserted), then how could Ben and Patrick possibly have known about it that far back? Are they psychic? Are these guys prescient modern-day Nostradamus-es? Or, are they financial super-wizards --real-life Hari Seldons-- who can accurately predict the future with mathematical precision, but posing as regular guys? If the housing bubble was so impossible to predict, even with access to the very best market data and cutting-edge computing power (as the experts insist it was), then how could two ordinary working-class stiffs manage to pull off such a feat by themselves?

    Should we be concerned that Patrick and Ben are some form of genetically mutated super-geniuses hiding in plain sight?? How else could they possibly have foreseen the unforeseeable?

    Spooky, isn't it? :roll:

    Discuss, enjoy...
    HARM

    #housing

    « First        Comments 116 - 155 of 179       Last »     Search these comments

    116   Peter P   2007 Mar 7, 6:50am  

    I don’t pretend to actually understand the advantages of a roundabout/rotary.

    You know, I do like to pretend. ;)

    117   FormerAptBroker   2007 Mar 7, 6:51am  

    Even the mention of a small change from the current system in San Francisco where wealthy “medallion owners” pay off the politicians to keep the number of cabs and medallions low and profits high get’s (Comrade) Different Sean to say:

    > Further, there should be no consumer protections
    > or consumer certainty in society.

    It scares me that people like Different Sean think things would be better with more government regulation. Since the politicians are getting so much from the medallion holders I’m surprised that they don’t pass a law making all the cab companies drive Fords so they can extort money from Ford…

    118   Peter P   2007 Mar 7, 6:55am  

    Leaving aside the fact that there are people going round and round for ever in certain busy roundabouts not knowing how to get out, you are correct.

    See, it gives you the option to go around indefinitely while you decide which restaurant to go to. :)

    119   e   2007 Mar 7, 6:57am  

    Especially because of that their kids need to do something drastically different from their peers. Getting into the right schools will no longer guarantee a good life.

    But not getting into the right school might spell certain doom.

    This is a situation where the negatives risks are enormous. Remember: in the future in America, there will only be Director-level and above employees, and Big Box Store employees to service them.

    120   Peter P   2007 Mar 7, 6:58am  

    It is easy, the inner circle gets right-of-way. There are quite a few roundabouts at UC Davis for bikes. And with bikes, everything is multi-lane.

    121   Peter P   2007 Mar 7, 7:00am  

    But not getting into the right school might spell certain doom.

    I think getting a degree might spell certain doom.

    The percentage of degree-holders among the richest people is not too encouraging for college students.

    122   e   2007 Mar 7, 7:00am  

    PAR, have you tried this one for Bay Area listings?

    I get all my listings from www.burbed.com :)

    123   Peter P   2007 Mar 7, 7:02am  

    Remember: in the future in America, there will only be Director-level and above employees, and Big Box Store employees to service them.

    Exactly! Either you drop out and start a multi-billion company or you get a job at a big box store. Neither job requires a degree.

    If you have a degree, you will be pigeon-holed into the middle class, the "surplus" class.

    124   Different Sean   2007 Mar 7, 7:02am  

    Leaving aside the fact that there are people going round and round for ever in certain busy roundabouts not knowing how to get out, you are correct.

    See, it gives you the option to go around indefinitely while you decide which restaurant to go to.

    I've done a couple of 360s while getting my bearings over time... altho it gives you an option to do a U-turn as well, which an ordinary intersection normally won't do...

    sounds like the old Warner Bros cartoon with the guy stuck indefinitely on the freeways...

    125   Peter P   2007 Mar 7, 7:07am  

    I’ve done a couple of 360s while getting my bearings over time… altho it gives you an option to do a U-turn as well, which an ordinary intersection normally won’t do…

    We do U-turns in america all the time. :)

    I have also made U-turns using freeway cloverleafs.

    126   DinOR   2007 Mar 7, 7:08am  

    NV,

    Those are some butt ugly numbers my friend! Love the Zip Code breakdown. Betcha' Marshall Prentice and John Karavol never thought they'd be pumping out those kind of stats! :)

    127   e   2007 Mar 7, 7:09am  

    506 sq ft 53-year old cottage for $999,000 with Los Altos schools (2665 MILLER AV, MTN VIEW).

    Sale History
    03/15/2006: $885,000
    05/07/1999: $475,000

    Now that's chutzpah.

    128   Peter P   2007 Mar 7, 7:11am  

    You can also be stuck in a set of freeway cloverleafs indefinitely.

    129   DinOR   2007 Mar 7, 7:11am  

    Portland has "traffic circles" all up and down 39th and they can be a gas (if you're actually using them) and a real drag if you're going all the way up. I will say that they keep the traffic flowing and that seems to be better for the people that live on high volume surface streets.

    130   DinOR   2007 Mar 7, 7:17am  

    "35% off peak 2005 prices to dance a victory jig"

    Uh, I do a little jig every time another subprime lender goes belly up!

    35% off peak I will rent a 40' luxury motor home and go coast to coast with a m@tha f*ckin' bullhorn on full volume to promote my HELOC Bustin' Daddies Tour! :)

    131   e   2007 Mar 7, 7:21am  

    You can also be stuck in a set of freeway cloverleafs indefinitely.

    One of my friends from Seattle who was visiting recently asked me "Why are all the interchanges so bad in California?"

    I'm not sure if he was referring to the:
    -101 N entrance at Mathilda
    -85 N entrance & 237 E exit at El Camino
    -101 S at Rengstorff

    Those are pretty damn scary places.

    132   Doug H   2007 Mar 7, 7:23am  

    OT......

    Want to check a site to see if it is blocked by The Party?

    http://www.greatfirewallofchina.org/test/

    133   Peter P   2007 Mar 7, 7:24am  

    Interchanges are much better in San Diego. Also, I believe they have modified many full-cloverleafs to parclos along 880.

    One "good" thing about cloverleafs is that you can safely abort merging and try again.

    134   Peter P   2007 Mar 7, 7:30am  

    IIRC they post yield signs instead of merge signs in Seattle. Is this true?

    135   MtViewRenter   2007 Mar 7, 7:34am  

    eburbed said:

    -85 N entrance & 237 E exit at El Camino

    Is it really that bad? That's right by where I live, but since I work locally, I don't use highways much. Never felt like it was such a problem though.

    We were down in LA a couple months ago. Seemed like so many of the highway entrances down there are just nuts. You have like 20 feet to accelerate from 0 to the speed limit or you'll get rearended. 237 E from 101 S is kinda like that. Great excuse to buy a sports car.

    136   MtViewRenter   2007 Mar 7, 7:36am  

    I meant 237E from 101N....

    137   MtViewRenter   2007 Mar 7, 7:37am  

    Damn, maybe it's 101W. You get the idea.

    138   sfbubblebuyer   2007 Mar 7, 7:41am  

    Here's a distress sale in Saratoga. They're trying to get 950,000 for the property, and if you look back at zillow, the property was last bought in 2000 for $750k. They won't work with any other realtors, which says to me that 950K is just about the least they can accept while getting out from under their mortgage, which suggests 920K in debt. It seems like this is a golden example of House ATM gone badly. I suppose it's possible that they could make their payments for 7 years and lost a job and have to sell... but in that case it wouldn't be a distress sale as they'd have well under 750k owned by now, even with a 0% down loan.

    139   Peter P   2007 Mar 7, 7:42am  

    237 E from 101 S is kinda like that.

    No, you get a very long aux lane before it exits at Mathilda.

    237 W from 101 N is another story though, although the merge zone is quite wide.

    I meant 237E from 101N….

    No such exit.

    140   MtViewRenter   2007 Mar 7, 7:46am  

    Peter P,

    You're right, 237 W from 101 N. The only times I go that way is at night, so I haven't noticed how wide the merge zone is.

    Anyone know how to tell if you're dyslexic? That'd explain a lot of things....

    141   Allah   2007 Mar 7, 7:49am  

    Really pissed me off. When will this crap end?

    When the last toxic loan peddler files for Chapter 11. Which should not be too long from now:

    http://ml-implode.com/

    ...and don't forget, as each toxic loan peddler goes out of business, the remaining peddlers have less competition so they can afford to raise rates.

    142   Peter P   2007 Mar 7, 7:53am  

    Anyone know how to tell if you’re dyslexic? That’d explain a lot of things….

    Dyslexic is a sign of genius because you are thinking faster than you can talk or type.

    Merge zones usually look smaller than they are. You can look at the satellite map of that area.

    http://tinyurl.com/33cbed

    But I advise extreme caution in all merges.

    143   sfbubblebuyer   2007 Mar 7, 7:53am  

    …and don’t forget, as each toxic loan peddler goes out of business, the remaining peddlers have less competition so they can afford to raise rates.

    They may have to raise rates just to sell those mortgages on as Wallstreet is waking up to the subprime risk.

    144   Peter P   2007 Mar 7, 7:54am  

    s/Dyslexic/Dyslexia

    145   Allah   2007 Mar 7, 8:10am  

    …and don’t forget, as each toxic loan peddler goes out of business, the remaining peddlers have less competition so they can afford to raise rates.

    They may have to raise rates just to sell those mortgages on as Wallstreet is waking up to the subprime risk.

    Yes, that too; but the reason they lowered their rates so much in the first place was because they had so much competition that they figured they would make it up in volume by lowering their standards. Now that they are dropping like flies they are losing their competition; should become very interesting this spring.

    146   skibum   2007 Mar 7, 8:11am  

    I don’t pretend to actually understand the advantages of a roundabout/rotary. We have a good number of them in Boston near where I grew up.

    MtViewRenter,

    I bike to work nearly every day, including back when we were living in Boston. Imagine trying to make it through rotaries on your bike in a sea of Masshole drivers!

    The particularly scary ones for me were the one just on the Cambridge side of the BU bridge and the one on JamaicaWay as it splits off to Centre St.

    147   tsusiat   2007 Mar 7, 8:11am  

    Hey HARM,

    I would have to agree that Patrick and Ben were before there time in one sense, they put up these websites. However, the fact so many people were attracted to them from the outset, whether they were labeled JBRs or not, shows that there was a lot of public opinion already forming around the idea that housing prices were insane and unsustainable.

    I got hurt in the stock crash around 2000, and it just seemed so obvious to me since 2001 that money had flowed by the boatload into real estate, that maybe used to be somewhere else, like the stock market.

    I'll admit, my understanding of economics is somewhat limited. Anyway, for that reason, plus the craziness of prices jumping here 30-40% per year, I just had to believe that there would be some kind of opposite reaction.

    So I don't know if Patrick and Ben are geniuses, but they certainly tapped into the zeitgiest, or spirit of the times, if you know what I mean.

    148   StuckInBA   2007 Mar 7, 8:15am  

    NV :

    I don't see the meltdown. The DQ news SJMN page actually shows good gains for both SC and SM county. Some zip codes are quite down, some are doing extremely good. It's kind of weird. What's with Sunnyvale ? 3 zip codes are up over 10% ? Must have been the new homes.

    149   FormerAptBroker   2007 Mar 7, 8:26am  

    SFBubbleBuyer Says:

    > Here’s a distress sale in Saratoga. They’re trying to get
    > 950,000 for the property, and if you look back at zillow,
    > the property was last bought in 2000 for $750k.

    The title records say that the current owner Shahin Jahanbani bought the place from Jason W. Frankenfield on 4/8/05 for $1,050,000

    > They won’t work with any other realtors, which says to me that
    > 950K is just about the least they can accept while getting out
    > from under their mortgage, which suggests 920K in debt.

    They suppressed the purchase price and total debt from the title records. I was able to back in to the purchase price at 98% of the 2006 tax bill (in CA under Prop 13. the assessed value goes up 2% a year.

    150   sfbubblebuyer   2007 Mar 7, 8:39am  

    Median prices can go up while house prices go down as buyers who 'stretched' in their brains what they would have to spend to get a decent house see houses they couldn't afford now drop down into their 'top' price range. Instead of buying the same house they could have bought in 2005 for 60k less, they buy the house they couldn't have afforded in 2005.

    It's a whole NEW class of people who could easily go underwater if they don't drop 20% down. When will they 'graduate' back to being renters?

    151   Peter P   2007 Mar 7, 8:41am  

    Instead of buying the same house they could have bought in 2005 for 60k less, they buy the house they couldn’t have afforded in 2005.

    That is very reasonable indeed, considering that most people feel that they could not afford what they need.

    152   Peter P   2007 Mar 7, 8:42am  

    I prefer to spend less if at all possible. I still want to enjoy sushi as a homeowner. :)

    153   sfbubblebuyer   2007 Mar 7, 8:43am  

    The title records say that the current owner Shahin Jahanbani bought the place from Jason W. Frankenfield on 4/8/05 for $1,050,000

    Ouch. If only he'd waited 2 more months he could have nailed the peak for sure!

    So he's only losing 13%ish (with fees) in a year... plus the interest paid.

    154   sfbubblebuyer   2007 Mar 7, 8:47am  

    Peter P said :
    That is very reasonable indeed, considering that most people feel that they could not afford what they need.

    That's a pretty good point. In fact, I told my wife if we were going to buy in a bubble (especially a deflating one), it'd have to be a house we'd stay in for at least 10+ years, preferrably 30+, so we're only considering houses good for kids even though we don't have any yet. I might buy the most house I can afford even with a slump in prices if it was a house I was sure I wouldn't have to leave. Hopefully most of the people buying now are doing the same thing. I'd hate to think of buying now and having to move in 5 years.

    155   Peter P   2007 Mar 7, 8:49am  

    I’d hate to think of buying now and having to move in 5 years.

    Not unless prices double again in 5 years. ;)

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