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The Galindo Mystery


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2007 Mar 8, 9:14am   21,986 views  221 comments

by HARM   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

Most of the posts here tend to pretty much revolve around posting housing/economic news stats, debunking REIC propaganda, ranting about the NAR/Fed, sharing stories, parodying ignorant FBs, etc. This time, I have a genuine mystery for you to help solve.

A recent San Francisco Chronicle article, "ECONOMIC DEEP FREEZE
January cold spell inflicts hardship on the state's citrus workers" contained the following excerpt:

Ruben Galindo, 44, Castanon's neighbor and a LoBue worker for 15 years, said, "Whatever little savings that we have, we are just not spending any. We are saving our pennies and nickels just to get us through the year.''

Galindo, with a wife and three kids, also has a mortgage and thinks he can handle two months of unemployment, but no more than that. He bought his house in Lindsay in 1995 and has thought about moving to El Paso, Texas, where housing costs are lower.

"But when prices of homes here go down, I won't be able to sell,'' Galindo said. "And they're already starting to come down.''

Ok, now here are the facts:

  • Galindo bought his house in 1995, so that's 12 years of (presumably continuous) mortgage payments, at a much, much lower cost-basis than today
  • Galindo was a LoBue worker for (again, presumably continuous) 15 years

    • Yet...

  • Galindo has very little savings, in fact no more than two month's worth
  • Galindo cannot afford to sell if/when house prices here come down

    • I really need your help here, because I just can't seem to reconcile the first two statements with the last two. From 1995 to 2007, house prices throughout virtually every part of California have at least tripled. So, even assuming Mr. Galindo took out an interest-only loan back in 1995 (not likely, as they were very rare back then), he must have at least 66.67% equity in his home by now, right? And if he has been more-or-less continuously employed since 1992 (with a very, very low housing cost basis), then how could he have almost zero savings? Even with the wife + 3 kids and assuming his job is of the low-skill/low-pay fruit-picking variety, and that his wife never works, this all seems somewhat hard to understand.

    Has Mr. Galindo cash-out refinanced his house each year since 1995 and used the money to take his family on annual round-the-world luxury cruises? Has his family dined exclusively on Chateaubriand, Maine lobster, pâté de foie gras, Italian black truffles, Kobe beef and Dom Perignon for the last 12 years? Is he single-handedly putting "Kitty", "Amber" and "Bambi" at the local gentleman's club through college?

    Unfortunately, this mystery is beyond my limited amateur-sleuth abilities to solve. Please help me out here.
    Thanks,
    HARM

    #housing

    « First        Comments 30 - 69 of 221       Last »     Search these comments

    30   Peter P   2007 Mar 8, 2:25pm  

    Who is Malcom?

    31   Malcolm   2007 Mar 8, 2:25pm  

    Just trying to follow your logic.

    32   Peter P   2007 Mar 8, 2:29pm  

    I get very excited when someone says s/he hates me. Come again please. :)

    33   DaBoss   2007 Mar 8, 2:31pm  

    I think many experienced writers either quit or were laid off = Google Effect

    34   HARM   2007 Mar 8, 2:32pm  

    @Reality,

    Personal attacks against other bloggers will not be tolerated here. If you want to engage in that kind of baseless name-calling, I recommend either Craigslist or the Wall Street Journal real estate blog --they seem to thrive on that kind of stuff.

    You have been warned.

    35   Peter P   2007 Mar 8, 2:33pm  

    I need to stuff my face some more. Where is my cake?

    36   Malcolm   2007 Mar 8, 2:38pm  

    You know, one thing you said does scare me, because my worst case scenario for all of this is not France, but more the communist revolution. Enough people are affected, and they are masses of losers like the peasants of Russia, China, and France, that it is conceivable that there could be an upheaval. Reality, you could actually get your way, we could have regulation, price controls, tax payer bailouts, and more restrictions on our freedoms.
    As for your other comments I trust the other readers more than I trust your opinion of my thoughts. You might take a minute to reflect that all of the links, all of the stories show without any shadow of a doubt that we have been right all along.

    37   Malcolm   2007 Mar 8, 2:43pm  

    Again no point. What is your deal?

    38   Malcolm   2007 Mar 8, 2:45pm  

    It's cute that you are trying to be clever, but I am really trying to see if you have a point of view or if you just had a bad day, or maybe you have a lender calling you demanding payment.

    39   Malcolm   2007 Mar 8, 2:49pm  

    Maybe you should have started checking this site out beforehand. It has been observed that most of the people that have a problem with us don't like the message because it is bad news for them. You are not the first.

    40   HARM   2007 Mar 8, 2:50pm  

    Hey, Peter P,

    I don't know if you noticed how I worked food into the thread topic, but I was thinking of you ;-) .

    41   Peter P   2007 Mar 8, 2:51pm  

    I don’t know if you noticed how I worked food into the thread topic, but I was thinking of you.

    Thanks, brother. :)

    We should have another blog party!

    42   Malcolm   2007 Mar 8, 2:53pm  

    I'd say you are the one who can't be questioned. You made a silly assertion, I followed your logic to its conclusion and you don't like the outcome. Throwing terms like yuppie out are revealing your hand. You just don't like the message.

    43   HARM   2007 Mar 8, 2:54pm  

    Sounds like a plan --maybe we can do it at my place this time!

    Oh, and for the record, Peter P is *not* fat or ugly. Callow? maybe...
    (just kidding)

    44   Peter P   2007 Mar 8, 2:59pm  

    I am at least overweight, according to some standard somewhere. I need to try the Atkin's sometime. :)

    45   Malcolm   2007 Mar 8, 3:00pm  

    I like cake as well.

    46   Peter P   2007 Mar 8, 3:01pm  

    I hereby ask him. Retroactively. For the record.

    47   Peter P   2007 Mar 8, 3:02pm  

    Perhaps a dark chocolate cake. Or a light cheese cake.

    48   Malcolm   2007 Mar 8, 3:03pm  

    Light cheese cake is the best. Yellow cake with chocolate frosting rocks.

    49   Peter P   2007 Mar 8, 3:04pm  

    BTW, back to the subject, I keep getting called by mortgage companies for refinancing. Looks like rentor can get HELOCs very soon.

    50   Peter P   2007 Mar 8, 3:04pm  

    Yellow cake with chocolate frosting rocks.

    Will that be similar to Black Forest cake?

    51   Malcolm   2007 Mar 8, 3:06pm  

    Hey, just do 'what everyone else does' forge your name on a grant deed, then go crazy. Or even easier, just assume your landlord's identity.

    52   sfvulture   2007 Mar 8, 3:07pm  

    Did someone mention blog party? When? Where?

    53   Malcolm   2007 Mar 8, 3:08pm  

    Now, I'm going to have to make a cake tomorrow, you've got me craving a moist yellow cake now.

    54   Malcolm   2007 Mar 8, 3:09pm  

    Sheez, I was the one who proposed Bubblepalooza. That would be awesome.

    55   Peter P   2007 Mar 8, 3:09pm  

    you’ve got me craving a moist yellow cake now

    I did bring a moist yellow cake (with cream outside) for the last blog party. :)

    I bought it from a Danish bakery though.

    56   Malcolm   2007 Mar 8, 3:10pm  

    Peter are you up in San Francisco? Where do you all meet?

    57   Peter P   2007 Mar 8, 3:11pm  

    who gives a shit.

    Good question! You should ask yourself.

    58   HARM   2007 Mar 8, 3:11pm  

    Did someone mention blog party? When? Where?

    Probably my place - maybe next month - Pasadena area.

    59   Malcolm   2007 Mar 8, 3:12pm  

    Cool, I'm in San Diego.

    60   Peter P   2007 Mar 8, 3:12pm  

    Peter are you up in San Francisco? Where do you all meet?

    Last blog party was down in Santa Barbara. It was a good labor day (?) trip.

    61   Peter P   2007 Mar 8, 3:13pm  

    San Diego is lovely. Which part are you in?

    62   HARM   2007 Mar 8, 3:14pm  

    We can use "Reality" as the Piñata.
    (kidding, of course)

    63   Malcolm   2007 Mar 8, 3:14pm  

    North County. City of San Marcos.

    64   Malcolm   2007 Mar 8, 3:15pm  

    Good night everyone.

    Reality bites.

    65   sfvulture   2007 Mar 8, 3:17pm  

    Good night folks....keep me posted on the party.

    66   Peter P   2007 Mar 8, 3:17pm  

    Reality bites

    Well, Patrick set this up as a "reality parser." :)

    67   e   2007 Mar 8, 3:39pm  

    Who is Malcom?

    In the middle.

    har har har har

    68   astrid   2007 Mar 8, 10:26pm  

    A Black Forest cake is a multilayered (though not necessarily multi-tiered cake made with a dark chocolate batter, filled with sour cherries, kirsch syrup, and whip cream, then topped with dark chocolate shavings.

    69   DinOR   2007 Mar 8, 10:48pm  

    Valerie Plame,

    Val,

    No hard feelings? :)

    Scooter

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