patrick.net

Just a note: side airbags (torso and head) are more important than frontal airbags, especially if you wear seatbelt religiously.

Cars are getting a lot safer. But the "competitions" are driving much heavier vehicles. Sometimes I do have the urge to get a 6000lb+ SUV.

Hey Peter,
Actually, I decided to start doing something about it. I wrote to the SF Gaurdian, the San Jose Mercury Times, along with all CA senators like Barbera Boxer, The Mayors of Oakland, Berkeley, and Alameda, and countless other editorial sections on various web sites. I get surprisingly few responses. So far only the Gaurdian replied back with positive feeback and agreed to publish one of my editorials. I didn't expect a reply from the big guys, like Boxer, but in each instance, I got generic pre-generated replies from all of them that sounded like they were written by the same person. They basically said that they "understood there was a need for low-income housing"..., which tells me that either they are out of touch, or like any popular politician, don't want to tarnish their hands with all the homeowners. The real problems are not being adressed. If people want to jump on board and do something about it, I am seriously considering attending city planning commisions and speaking up since our local board is ALL homeowners.
Thus my opinion is that Blogs and forums are fine to vent and voice ideas, and to get great discussions going to arrive at ideas, but in the end, the root of the problem is the rotten foundation of most city planning commisions that lack the ability to win over new housing developments since their hands are tied by homeowners. The fact that almost 50% of us are now non-homeowners means we have a fair number of citizens to contribute to a increase in local representation at civic planning. This above all is what has to happen unless we want this same trend to happen again and again.

3% year over year decline...

“KB Homes, the Los Angeles builder noted that the U.S. Census Bureau reported that single-family housing starts in December fell 12% from November, and about 8% from December 2004. Also, the bureau reported that the median sales price for new homes declined approximately 3% in December from a year earlier."

Voila - no more spam from that web site.

Too late. I have an account at ZipRealty already. :(

If I spend more time searching, an agent will even call me to see if I need any help.

Can’t people see that distortions in the housing market are bad for the state and its residents, or do they know and not care? I think this is definitely an example of the tragedy of the commons. My question is what can we do about it?

Of course we cannot change the course of the society single-handedly. We can at beast predict its probable path and adapt to the changes pre-emptively.

From today's CNBC Market Dispatch:

Housing is becoming a real problem. The Philadelphia Housing Sector Index is down 13.% since August and 9% since early January. Standard Pacific (SPF, news, msgs), a big Western builder is down 20% since early January; Lennar (LEN, news, msgs) is down 14.6%.

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/CNBC/Dispatch/060213markets.aspx

Housing is becoming a real problem.

The stock market is always a leading indicator. The housing bubble will soon burst.

The most important question is: what level of housing bubble damage have the market already discounted? This helps determine whether there will still be good profit shorting homebuilders now.

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE

This sense of undeserved entitlement that I hear from those who are ” in” really bothers me.- that and the fact that nobody seems to care about business or new ideas- the things that get you money so you can live your life. Now all anyone talks about is their damned houses.

You've just described a classic bubble and the psychology which drives and sustains it. It's very hard for one to seperate lucky timing from true merit. Sort of like gambling. When you're on a streak, it's very difficult to recognize it for what it is: a lucky streak. Most people ride their luck back down to mean regression (actually beyond), instead of walking away in the money.

Housing markets will go up; housing markets will go down. You can be right on either side of the bet. It's all a matter of timing and discipline--discipline to follow your convictions and not be tempted to join the herd, no matter how loudly they all start mooing.

discipline to follow your convictions and not be tempted to join the herd, no matter how loudly they all start mooing

Very true indeed. I myself used to be very prone to self-doubt.

Randy, I have learned so much from you. I will now even agree that the economy is NOT a zeo-sum game. :)

Plenty of room for shorting.

Cool. :)

"White House says no worries here - “soft landing” all the way!" --Doodler

Oh no, now we're REALLY screwed! Whenever the White House starts talking about the "strength of the Economy" it starts going to Hell! When will they learn?!

White House says no worries here - “soft landing” all the way!

For the nation in general, there is not much of a housing bubble. However, there are huge bubbles in many local markets that are large enough to affect the entire economy.

Will there be government (taxpayer) bail outs?

There will probably be bailouts for financial institutes but not for individual homeowners.

Dinor,
The interesting thing about Google is that it seems to have Henry Ford Syndrome, whereas when it first appeared, it was a no-nonsense, simple and relativly clean idea( think the Model T). Then it turned into more of a hybrid yahoo-AOL engine with all the crap hidden one page deep. The original allure is gone, and so is the sex appeal for it.. thus... people dumped it.

Oh, one little thing about high end cars. I buy a safe luxury car every 10 or twelve years. I do think they hold up better in the long run.

Safety is the most important thing. I doubt I will get another car without at least 6-8 airbags.

Stability control is also very important. It may just save the vehicle from spinning out of control in front of a charging big rig.

And though I like a safe car, the issue of safety became a distraction from the greater need to create fuel economy.

I have a confession to make... if I have to make a choice, I rather drive a large 10mpg car than a small 35mpg car.

Randy, I have learned so much from you. I will now even agree that the economy is NOT a zeo-sum game.

Thanks Peter. I think we've all learnt from one another here.

I am wondering who will ultimately pick up the tab for all of the houses that people will walk away from and banks will own.

I'll be in line to buy one of them.

Is this a new record? Is this as far as we've ever gotten into a thread without a friendly neighborhood troll dropping in to tell us what a bunch of idiotic jealous bitter renters who need to get a real job we all are?!

So if the housing market really does crash, not only will a lot of people lose their homes, but they will lose their pension as well, as many pension funds are tied up in Motgage backed securities. Have I got that right?

I have a feeling that it may even affect money market funds. Correct me if I am wrong.

I think BMW’s are terrific cars. My Dad got hit by in a head on collision by a drunk driver doing 75 mph, and walked away without a scratch. The firemen at the scene said he’d have probably been killed in just about any other car.

Perhaps I should look into getting one next time. ;)

The problem is that BMW is not something that I dare to buy used. (Again, correct me if I am wrong.) It is so desirable that it is difficult to find bargain-basement purchase or leasing deals.

We drive a big SUV type vehicle. At least we don’t have to worry about a Toyota hitting as, or do we?

Depending on Toyota what.

Toyota's answer to Hummer: www.megacruiser.com

It’s probably best to buy private party if you can.

Perhaps. But somehow I feel more comfortable buying a used Lexus.

That’s the only thing that matters. I wouldn’t want to be in a Tercel while being hit by a large SUV though.

No, physics eventually prevails.

I do not understand why people will want to buy a new Tercel when one can get a 10-year-old Lexus LS400 or BMW 740i for a little bit more.

I later found other reported incidents of the same problem with Honda Accord electric seats. Of course, Honda would not acknowledge that there was a problem and attempted to resolve the issue by reseting the death trap.

Newer Volvo's and Saab's have pretty good active rear-end collison protection.

My dream vehicle is a Loomis Fargo truck conversion. :)

I remember a 60 minutes piece on front seats collapsing during a rear end collision. The CEO of Mercedes went on record saying that if a Mercedes failed in such a fashion it would be their fault. Balls German style. I liked it.

Balls German style. I liked it.

Is there such a thing as class-action lawsuit in Germany?

Balls German style. I liked it.

Is there such a thing as class-action lawsuit in Germany?

Zey hav ways of making der lawsuitesse go away. ;-)

Sorry but I had a perfect boomer moment this weekend. A friend of a friend has a sailboat and we got invited sailing. We show up with beer and chips (12 pack pacifico), 3 boomers already present, Beatles blaring. Boomer #1 says "hey man, want some 'shrooms". Ahhh not right now. Boomers 2 and 3 of course chomp away. Get underway and boomer 2 busts out the bag'o'dope. Boomers 1-3 preceed to get stoned, I guess that tequilla shots go well with a mushroom/pot buzz. I thought about killing myself. The boat owner (not to be confused with homedebtor) changed the station off of the freedom rock station to a pretty cool modern rock station. I put the knife down. Boomers 1-3 are hitting the pot and tequilla pretty hard. We sailed until they ran out of pot, tequilla and beer. I don't think they even realized that they were sailing. Oh, when we got to the marina, they invited us out to a bar. My wife asked them why the were parting like they were 20, in unison they said because they still were. Rock out man. Did you know that drug overdose is one of the top causes of death for the 50-60 year old crowd?

Did I mention I was the Queen of Tangents?

Also the Blog Queen. We are in the Blog Sphere, out to assimilate all lifeforms into housing bears. :)

Get underway and boomer 2 busts out the bag’o'dope. Boomers 1-3 preceed to get stoned, I guess that tequilla shots go well with a mushroom/pot buzz. I thought about killing myself.... Boomers 1-3 are hitting the pot and tequilla pretty hard. We sailed until they ran out of pot, tequilla and beer. I don’t think they even realized that they were sailing. Oh, when we got to the marina, they invited us out to a bar. My wife asked them why the were parting like they were 20, in unison they said because they still were. Rock out man. Did you know that drug overdose is one of the top causes of death for the 50-60 year old crowd?

_sigh_, shakes head. (And we accused of unfair stereotyping)

"Californians age 40 and older are dying of drug overdoses at double the rate recorded in 1990, a little-noticed trend that upends the notion of hard-core drug use as primarily a young person’s peril.

Indeed, overdoses among baby boomers are driving an overall increase in drug deaths so dramatic that soon they may surpass automobile accidents as the state’s leading cause of nonnatural deaths."

I'm sorry to chime in late about the whole "living beyond your means thing."

In my case, I support my family of 4 on one income. I used to own a house--but I've come to realize, it is not the most important thing in life. I am really happy that my wife gets to do what she wants to do--raise our kids. They are truely benefitting enormously from it.

We drive a used honda and a used Acura. I fullly fund my 401k, I have savings, and I work in sales. I plan to save every bonus check. We enjoy going to the beach, which is free, hiking, which is free, snowboarding (damn on that one!) and just being together as a family. I would not trade it for the "Pride" of ownership or the flash of a German Auto. I did once. It wasn't that great.

I know that the whole yuppy/flaunt it lifestyle is disheartening to many. I know it exists in every town in America. But I say this from experience.

The nouvea riche have ink on their fingers from counting their new money. It is easy to spot a mile off. They are not fooling me or anyone not caught up in the mindless pursuit of status. You can't buy class, happiness, or the respect of others.

And I have to say one more thing that may sound a little out of left field. If you want to buy the nicest house you can imagine, save your money now, start a business, work hard,and be thankful for the success and blessings that come to you.

--Deo Vindice

Where does that come from and does it include alcohol?

It was an article in the LA Times last year, which has since been removed from their website. A copy is here: http://www.truthout.org/docs_2005/101005G.shtml

On vehicles: I bought a Toyota truck in 3/1993. Next month I celebrate my 13th year of driving it. It's probably not very safe in a crash, but it kills me to think of spending money on something new when I have something that works. Original engine. When I see the flashy new vehicles around me in traffic I don't think "they have money" I think "they have debt."

On frugality: When I go to Walmart I often have 4 or 5 discount coupons clipped from the Sunday paper. The other day, when I handed the clerk the coupons (almost $4 off total) she remarked that people hardly ever use coupons there. That kind of blew me away.

Question: Beyond "shorting the market" and buying RE at the bottom, in what other ways can one profit from the ruptured bubble?

One women told me she doesn’t need to have an sexual orgasm, she’s having a perpetual orgasm with her prozac. I wasn’t sure what she meant but I knew it wasn’t good.

Huh?

Holy mackerel, and I thought I was off thread.