patrick.net

Huh?

Very well written... Can I interest you in collaborating on some ideas for a screenplay? I'll get my people to talk to your people...

Housing bubble collapse strategy: run like hell!

From Publishers Weekly

Talbott's latest effort in warning of the coming housing crash bluntly advises owners to liquidate in a hurry.

Raising the stakes from his previous best-seller (The Coming Crash in the Housing Market), Talbott argues housing prices will plummet by as much as 50 percent over the next five to seven years, a hit that will be felt on an international level and cascade into larger economic problems: more job losses and a weaker banking infrastructure.

As a guide for the average homeowner, this book is a convincing argument broken down into laymen's terms, albeit one fueled by bias: Talbott admits he, "allowed his anger and bitterness," to influence his writing, making it less a studied survey than a "creative analysis," as Talbott terms it.

Copyright © Reed Business Information

What is the counter to the excesses of the Baby Boomers and answer to all of life's most daunting questions and problems?

Simple: frugality and thrift!

Oh, yeah. A lifetime of eating peanut butter and jelly sammiches, pork 'n beans, no heat in your home in the winter and no air conditioning in the summer.

In a word, BR

What is BR?

Banana Republic!

Get used to it. And if you don't like it, you can always drop $50-$100K
on college degrees and get further into debt. Or do like your neighbors and move three or four families into one house.

In another word, YF!

What's YF? You're F-cked!

Don't like it? Be like Surfer-X and spend precious years of your life and tons of money going to prestigious universities and racking up hard science degrees while the Boomers gather round, munch on popcorn and drink Hi-C fruit punch as they laugh and point at you calling you "their little hampster running on the treadmill to nowhere, their little puppet."

I asked a Boomer the other day if it was all true...if it was just a Boomer conspiracy? He merely laughed and said, "Yup!" He said, "Holliday, you and all the other Xer's our the Boomers' puppet. You dance on our evil, little strings."

Then he told me that Surfer-X and host of other Xer's were the topic of inside jokes amongst the illuminati, Boomer elite. They would laugh and dance and sing songs about all the hoops Surfer and other Xer's were jumping through to "make it" in today's society, when after all, it was just a Matrix sort of scam. A Brave New World sort of negative eutopia.

He said the real children of affluence amongst the Boomer offspring had all become politicians or high-priced lobbyists for foreign countries like China and Saudi Arabia, selling out every inch of dirt, every port, every golf course etc. This is where the money and power were, in selling out America in the name of national security and free markets, etc.

He told me America was finished and that the Boomers were about to Bogart the last bong, that Gen-X was worthless, and told me to turn out the lights on the way out.

Oh, yeah. He said something weird before cackling like a Boomer witch. He said, "Here's the secret as to why you're losing your country, why it's being sold out."

" All those hippie Boomers from the 60's, they moved into government, business and academia to subert it from within. They're pushing globalization. That trade promotes peace. look at Bill Clinton and Al Gore in a time of war making hundreds of thousands giving speeches badmouthing the US while our soldiers fight and die. Look at Bob Dole making thousands and thousands lobbying to sell out our ports to the UAE. Look at Alan Greenspan making $250,000 for one speech while you suffer and die for stagnant and declining real wages. The little peope will be at war with radical Islam while the elites will simultaneously be doing big business with them. And us Boomers have ours and will smoke dope and sit on our asses laughing at you!"

Then he cackled like a witch and said, "Don't let the door hit you and your lost generation in the ass on the way out, Holliday."

I'll say it again, you guys are pretty damn funny.

I have to say that the whining boomer rants have now jumped the shark.

Here's a different approach:

The world is very different now. For man holds in his mortal hands the power to abolish all forms of human poverty and all forms of human life. And yet the same revolutionary beliefs for which our forebears fought are still at issue around the globe - the belief that the rights of man come not from the generosity of the state, but from the hand of God.

And so, my fellow Americans: ask not what your country can do for you - ask what you can do for your country.

Don't make me stop this car.

Well....
It looked as if all would be lost for the poor, miserable Gen Xr's up in their giant Goodyear blimps. The suddenly cured Cyro-Boomers were now in total comman of the entire planet with their fiendish army of robots to defend them as they drove around in their circa 1987 Volvo station wagons and 1990's VW jettas.
But then, something unexpectedly happened.. Walt Disney, who had been cyrogenically frozen way back in the 60's was secretly reanimated by a contengency of escaped gen Xrs who just knew that someone like Walt would come kick some ass.
Walt always dreamed of the future and had tried to make his own world with the now ancient ruins of the old Disney park, long overgrown since the cyroboomers deemed it one of the countless corporate monopolies that didn't benefit their own vision of world peace. Thus Disneyland had been replaced with JimmyCarterland, where the doctrine of peace through farming peanuts and wearing Birkenstocks was taught through a series of rides and theme parks. So Walt was quite angry about all of this and decided that." Enough is enough!" So... I'll finish it later because it is too early.

Ha ha,
I'll be honest, I think this blog needed a little comic relief. All this talk about the housing bust, when it will happen, what will happen, if it will happen... we hope it will happen, and how we're all screwed can get a little draining.Look at the facts( for now) housing is still unaffordable, prices, inflation, and all the other crap that is going on is still occuring even if there are some very well informed people on this forum.
So ya- it feels good to come somewhere and take out frusturations. I'll admit that I've been sort of obsessed about housing for around a year. I think about it probably more than is healthy ever since I got married. I was talking to a friend the other day. He mentioned that perhaps I should just enjoy my time without worrying about it. He is totally right. There isn't a thing that I can do about the current situation. If by some miracle, those prices stay out of reach forever, then I guess I won't buy and that will be it.But if I start getting paid more, the prices come down, or I find that another city in another state is actually better for the needs I have, then it will happen in due time, and it will for you and hopefully everyone else here.
A light-hearted post like the one that was started today is what people need sometimes, to sort of get back into a better mood, to look at the situation perhaps in a more positive light. It made me smile.

I'm going to be the nasty bastard for a minute. Ok, so there are some people who have a signifigant amount of money saved up in this forum, like you Ha ha, with 150k in the bank. 150k is enough to buy a NICE house, plus some left over in any number of other metropolitan areas across the country. I can think of at least 10 such places, and what's more, they're growing fast and have improving job markets that are getting to the point of being as diversified as the Bay Area's. So why not spend at least some of the time you spend here worrying how you'll ever afford a stucco-slathered 2 bedroom house in oakland, and look at other options and locations where you can take advantage of the signifigant savings you have. I say this because the light dawned on me about 3 months ago that with me and my wife's savings, we could probably do the same, and come out ahead.
You are right- 100k doesn't get you far in the bay area.. but it will everywhere else, and if you have enough to buy a house high and dry somewhere else, then count that as fast-forwarding about 20 years, get a job that perhaps pays 65-70k, yet you get to KEEP half of it as play money? Sound good? you bet it does, and it won't last long.I check with friends and family in nashville and Atlanta all the time, and it ain't going to stay as gut-wrenchedly cheap forever. This is called getting your money to work for you, not against. SF might as well be Europe. Take your 100k and split it in half. Take every dollar you spend and make it 50 cents. Probably less.
Of course if you're in the mindset that I just gotta' stay here.. no matter how shitty it gets, then you have to sort of deal with the reality, which is that 100k means you're lower middle class.. for now. I think most people on this forum could use this advice. perhaps it's because I am a non-california native, but every time I go home and visit, I feel like I'm visiting people in a first world country. I didnt realize how good I had it back there until I moved here, so perhaps my perspective is skewed.

Sorry if the "topic" put off some people, but frankly as --nomadtoons2 suggested --I just felt like a little comic relief. Plus, we hadn't had a creative writing thread in a while. I still think SQT's "Home-roids" is one of the best sci-fi/housing concepts so far.

If you would like to ignore it and discuss housing data, please feel free to do so. BTW, anyone else here a Kurt Vonnegut fan?

Cheers,
HARM

@SQT & SFWoman -- both terrific endings! I may have to elist you in my screenplay project with Different Sean.

Undead cryo-Boomer zombie WalMart greeters --genius!

Housing haiku

Actually, Ben's blog had an entire thread on this a few weeks back. There were some fantastic poems. Maybe we'll do one at some point.

So therefor Google=God. I thought Larry Ellison wanted that job.

What is the difference between God and Larry Ellison? God does not think that he is Larry Ellison.

I have a book with that title!

You should see if you can get ahold of some carpet bags, either that or make some out of carpet remenents and make due. The term would be carpetbaggers.

nomadtoons2 Says:

"I’m going to be the nasty bastard for a minute. Ok, so there are some people who have a signifigant amount of money saved up in this forum, like you Ha ha, with 150k in the bank. 150k is enough to buy a NICE house, plus some left over in any number of other metropolitan areas across the country. I can think of at least 10 such places, and what’s more, they’re growing fast and have improving job markets that are getting to the point of being as diversified as the Bay Area’s. So why not spend at least some of the time you spend here worrying how you’ll ever afford a stucco-slathered 2 bedroom house in oakland, and look at other options and locations where you can take advantage of the signifigant savings you have."

For most people moving out of the Bay Area makes a lot of sense, but for those of us that grew up here moving is a big culture shock and it means leaving friends and family behind. My Mom was just reminding me of a home on Jackson Street in Presidio Heights I looked at that was selling for $675K in 1996 (I couldn't afford it at the time and didn't want to have to get a bunch of roommates to help me pay the mortgage). Last year similar homes in the area were selling for $4mm+. I find it funny that most newcommers to the Bay Area now think it is "normal" for Bay Area home in a nice area to increase in value by $300K per year when the same home took almost was increasing in value by only $6K on average over the last 100 years...

I was trying to think of a snappier term for "dirigible penal colonies". How does "eXile blimps", or just "X-blimps" sound?

I was going to take the story in a "Fountainhead" direction, giving hope to the undeniable truth of human individuality and enterprise. But after reading SFWoman's illustrative usage of "Wood Chipper Accidents", and SQT's evokation of the Boomer Conundrum, I think we have a couple of winners.

@Need Your Creative Input,

Nah, just eerie cooincidence. :-)

Clearly, this guy was a novice about how to handle himself in such a situation. Not someone with practice in the art. Not someone familiar with the justice system. Not a con-man.

It is amazing that people are willing to further incriminate themselves by talking too much.

This Spring could bounce for reasons other than real estate. Did see durable goods were down 10% for January, not so many frigs and stoves sold.

Perhaps a Spring Bounce for oil price.

Have you heard the new radio spot for Honey Mae?

You can "basically use your house as a bank."

I kid you not.

The Trustee Overlords own the legal system. So they change the laws and send the thawing Cryo Boomers to the airships.

Marinite
Marin Real Estate Bubble

Two convicted scam artists were arrested on Tuesday for allegedly conning an 84-year-old real estate agent by posing as wealthy socialites who were interested in buying a $900,000 home in San Jose.

Why would wealthy socialites buy 900K shitboxes in San Hosebag (sorry, cannot resist) ;)?

FT today (paraphrased)--

US household income growth slows and wealth shrinks. 2000-2005 show the biggest slowing of household incomes and wealth since the 70s. The most astounding part was that, when removing the top-5% from the statistics, there have been losses of both real-incomes and real-wealth, meaning that pretty much the only growth is occuring at the top. There was a later commentary that concluding removing both the top-5% and home-equity cash outs from the study show *huge* reductions in family real-incomes (over 20%).

There was a later commentary that concluding removing both the top-5% and home-equity cash outs from the study show *huge* reductions in family real-incomes (over 20%).

How is home-equity withdrawal counted as income?

I agree. And isn’t the “strong economy” the reason the Fed says it can continue raising interest rates?

Well, I hope that it continues to see it as strong. Stagnant as it is, inflation may really be picking up. We need at least 6-7% Fed rate.

How is home-equity withdrawal counted as income?

From these types of studies, it's counted as dis-savings, used for consumption. It's a "balancing the equation" thing.

Peter P,

"How is home equity-withdrawl considered income"? Good question! Perhaps if it were and added to AGI (or a portion) people wouldn't have been so eager to jump on the equity extraction band wagon. To do so now would only appear punitive.

It can be *both* stagnent and inflating. This is called.......(for a glass of Zephyr's Thursday night Brandy)

“How is home equity-withdrawl considered income”? Good question! Perhaps if it were and added to AGI (or a portion) people wouldn’t have been so eager to jump on the equity extraction band wagon. To do so now would only appear punitive.

It really is income insofar as your home "equity" is only equity in a stylized form; it is actually savings, not different from a T-Bill, a Stock, or any other asset-backed instrument. When you dispose of it, you're dis-saving, and the difference in cost basis is income/loss.

I never said the income was in return for any productive endeavor.

I never said the income was in return for any productive endeavor.

Well, I guess they have EARNED it.

It really is income insofar as your home “equity” is only equity in a stylized form; it is actually savings, not different from a T-Bill, a Stock, or any other asset-backed instrument. When you dispose of it, you’re dis-saving, and the difference in cost basis is income/loss.

I can see how this is technically correct, and yet incredibly misleading at the same time --as in, you are gaining "income" by liquidating repaid principal. Even worse, the owner "equity" itself is not solely a function of repaid principal, but a combination of that PLUS house's estimated current market "value". For many people, this will be negative if that value falls.

Using these wonderfully flexible government forms of measuring income, I suppose cutting off and eating my own leg would be counted as a form of income.

Once thawed, the Boomers start enjoying everything the future has to offer. Male pattern baldness can now be cured, and female Boomers take advantage of the remarkable advances in breast implant technology. Both sexes use tanning salons now that the possibility of contracting skin cancer has been eliminated.

Two developments occur which begin to chip away at the Boomer population. First, a new self-help guru appears who proclaims that death is just the next step in human evolution; once the vital essence leaves the body, a Boomer will not die, but rather evolve to a higher form of consciousness. The guru writes a bestselling e-book and gains an even larger following after appearing on "The Daily Show" to promote it. Prominent celebrities such as George Carlin, Jane Fonda, and Peter, Paul, and Mary become spokesboomers for the guru's philosophy.

The guru proclaims that all enlightened Boomers should join him at a commune in the Napa Valley located on the grounds of a winery there. A music festival and "evolve-in" is staged, at which Boomers desiring to evlove to the next stage of enlightenment drink wine laced with a leathal dose of halluconogens. Almost one-third of the unfrozen Boomers particpate in this craze and slip off the mortal coil.

In the aftermath, Rolling Stone magazine, now operating with a much-reduced staff, reveals that the guru did not "evolve" along with his flock; he drank grape juice instead of halluconogenic wine. Shockingly, it is revelaed that the guru is not a Boomer at all, but rather a Gen-X'er named Surfer X. He is never prosecuted for the offense -- the District Attorney of Sonoma County, 35 years old, refuses to indict -- and is later elected Governor of California.

The event which finishes off the remaineder of the Boomers takes place a year or two later. Computer technology has made great advances in the years since Boomers were frozen, and Boomers are afraid of the strange new devices; prior to being frozen, most Boomer could not program their VCR, and barely got the hang of AOL and e-mail; these new devices are therefore a complete mystery and the Boomers do not use them, relying instead on obsolete technologies such as cell phones and Blackberries.

A NASA early warning system discovers that a comet is heading straight toward Earth; as it enters the atmosphere, it is expected to fragment into three parts, one headed toward the Bay Area, another toward Santa Monica, and third toward South Beach in Miami. An alert is immediately issued over the new computer network. However, the alert system was designed before the Boomers were unfrozen, and did not anticipate the re-adoption of, and therefore does not support, legacy technologies such as AOL. The Boomers never get the message. A video recorder recovered from the smoking wreckage of a cigar bar in Carmel reveals Boomers looking up at the sky and saying "far out!" just before impact.

In the aftermath, the heirship claims of the boomers' many illegitimate children and estranaged spouses prove impossible to resolve, and their estates pass on to the government. A new Homestead Act is declared, and any Gen-X'er or Y'er who wishes to rebuild on land once owned by a Boomer may do so for free so long as they assume responsibility for erecting the house. Craftsmen designed to practically and comfortably accomodate the needs of families and children are built on the ashes of McMansions. Backyards and tree houses replace koi ponds and two-story reception rooms, and everyone lives happily ever after.

but a combination of that PLUS house’s estimated current market “value”. For many people, this will be negative if that value falls.

meant to say repaid principle + appreciation.

@Joe Schmoe ,

Hallucinogenic “evolve-in” --nice touch :-) . Too bad about Carmel, though.

I like SFWoman’s and newsfreaks suggestions. How about leaving the tags on the designer suit (obviously hanging out the back), draw a big “?” on your forehead and wear $ glitter glasses. Of course you’ll need to carry the real estate newspaper section under your arm along with a couple of decorating magazines and catalogues.

You should also carry a "housing balloon". Be careful not to prick it.

SFWoman Says:

"I just looked at the yield curve (at CNNmoney.com). It’s looking pretty weird. I do not have a business degree, just basic undergraduate econ. classes (including one taught by Larry Lindsay, fired by the Bush administration for predicting the Iraq war would cost some $$) but even to me things are looking a bit upside down."

Don't feel bad I have been talking with a lot of very smart people and I have yet to get an answer that makes sense to me why people are buying low yield long term treasuries. I also had an undergrad econ professor who has taken a lot of heat lately (since he has been predicting a Bay Area housing crash for over three years). Despite the fact that my undergrad econ. professor has been off on his timing of the Bay Area housing crash I still think he is a genius. I openly argued with most of my grad. school econ. professors telling them more than once that that their complex theories will never work in the real world (I personally hand delivered copies of the book "When Genius Failed" to a couple of them in 2000 with a note that said "It looks like your former student may have understood risk a little better than your former Nobel Prize winning colleague"...

New thread: The “I Hate Creativity” Thread

How can you tell people to get off the computer when you are sitting there doing the same thing? Oh, I know, “Do as I say, not as I do”.

No shit.

Very interesting reactions by all parties. Man, I missed out on a good one.

My story would have ended like Orwell's 1984, but with surfer-x huffing the bong and listening to Hendrix. "He loved Big Boomer."