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Fear: what are you afraid of?


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2007 Mar 17, 8:47am   24,567 views  231 comments

by Peter P   ➕follow (2)   💰tip   ignore  

We the people are primarily driven by emotion. Fear, as the most powerful emotion has undoubtedly influenced major events and decided the course of history. Sometimes, I wish that we can be rational and spend more time thinking.

We should think before we act. Or will that be too late? Perhaps we should just act?

Are we being priced out of the Bay Area housing market as we contemplate? Or is the other side just being silly?

Is "global warming" a clear and present danger? Or is it simply creative environmentalism?

Will the housing bubble burst? Or will there be a soft landing?

Are the poles going to reverse in 2012? Or is that just fear-mongering.

If only we could live without fear, we would have achieved much more as a people.

#housing

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17   Randy H   2007 Mar 17, 12:45pm  

I fear it will actually take until 2112 for people to realized they should have listened to Ayn. Well, I can always hope they don't find my Red Barchetta. Oh wait, wrong album.

18   Peter P   2007 Mar 17, 1:41pm  

I fear terrorists because they are anti-reason. Rogue states are slightly better because even delinquents are capable of reason sometimes.

19   Peter P   2007 Mar 17, 1:43pm  

I fear it will actually take until 2112 for people to realized they should have listened to Ayn.

Check out this article from the Ayn Rand Institute. :)

http://tinyurl.com/78nhr

20   Peter P   2007 Mar 17, 1:45pm  

OT: I broke my laptop and I need a new one. Any suggestion?

I can only use a eraserhead-type pointing device. So any laptop with only a trackpad will not work for me.

Thanks.

21   Randy H   2007 Mar 17, 1:55pm  

Peter P

Yes, most libertarians who aren't Libertarians are Objectivists, although they may not know it. Not coincidentally, you can find articles there that will tell you why big L Libertarianism is also bullshit.

Don't get a Dell. Thinkpads are probably the best I've used, but they are pricey.

22   Peter P   2007 Mar 17, 2:01pm  

Thinkpads are probably the best I’ve used, but they are pricey.

I currently have a Thinkpad. It is a good machine. Perhaps I abused it too much, the display hinge broke and the screen has funny lines.

My previous Thinkpad had a violent death. I loaned it to a relative and somehow it got run over by a vehicle in the parking lot. The screen was shattered.

I may still get a Thinkpad. It is pricey but there is always eBay. ;)

23   Randy H   2007 Mar 17, 2:05pm  

MAD is really just a "prisoner's dilemma" game theory solution for a 2-player sequential move game.

I read somewhere (Maybe in Dixit?) that the Soviet/US game had a pretty high chance of finding an equilibrium solution, from a purely mathematical analysis (and yes, game theory allows for irrationality, random moves, and psychology). I think it was 60% or higher.

Recently I read a similar analysis (in the Economist?) that posited the numerical chances of a 3-player MAD game finding an equilibrium solution. It was about 4%. Adding a third player (China) to a nuclear prisoner's dilemma sequential move game complicates things so much that it is very tough for the players to settle on a MAD policy.

The other problem is that any credibly irrational player is immune to game theory rationale entirely. Luckily few players at that scale are credibly irrational. But we are probably closer to such a player existing now than since anytime in nuclear armament history. By the way, introduction of an irrational player into a sequential prisoner's dilemma game has 100% probability of failure, since the rational thing for the other opponents to do is to preemptively attack and destroy the irrational actor -- however this automatically leads to escalation beyond equilibrium between other players, and therefore -- game over.

Kinda like War Games, the movie. Incidentally, anyone who can handle a simple but very compelling strategy game in that spirit, I strongly recommend Defcon. It's very cheap and you can download it from Steam, and it looks almost just like the War Games movie scenes from the war room. I can only manage to "win" a 3-player game if I play the USSR. And by win, I mean only losing about 70% of my population and 90% of my cities.

24   Randy H   2007 Mar 17, 2:06pm  

I need a Thinkpad in a Toughbook's case.

25   Peter P   2007 Mar 17, 2:12pm  

I need a Thinkpad in a Toughbook’s case.

Just get a Toughbook. ;)

I should not hold the laptop by its lid anymore.

26   Peter P   2007 Mar 17, 2:16pm  

It is sad that pointing sticks are becoming rare in newer laptops. :(

I hate trackpads.

27   ozajh   2007 Mar 17, 2:30pm  

sybrib/Bap33,

Garbage. Religion's whole raison d'etre is fear, the universal and quite rational fear of death.

In fact the Christian church even invented the concept of hell (no mention anywhere in the Bible IIRC), to keep the sheople attending and tithing...

28   Peter P   2007 Mar 17, 2:32pm  

In fact the Christian church even invented the concept of hell (no mention anywhere in the Bible IIRC), to keep the sheople attending and tithing…

Did the Bible mention HELOC? ;)

Is it something that foreshadows the Armageddon?

29   Brand165   2007 Mar 17, 2:35pm  

Um, the standard King James Bible mentions Hell a lot.

30   Randy H   2007 Mar 17, 2:44pm  

It is better to rule in Hell than to serve in Heaven.

I think that quote was either from Milton...or was it a Hedge Fund manager I heard speak recently?

31   Peter P   2007 Mar 17, 2:49pm  

It is better to rule in Hell than to serve in Heaven.

It is better to eat the ugliest fish than to be eaten by the prettiest fish.

32   Brand165   2007 Mar 17, 3:06pm  

Satan sounds like a JBR. :)

Although he is renting in a really bad area of town...

33   tsusiat   2007 Mar 17, 3:06pm  

Hey, I am making a housing blog,

come and take a look if you want,

tsusiat

34   Peter P   2007 Mar 17, 3:26pm  

Although he is renting in a really bad area of town…

That area cannot go down in price because it is hell-locked. :)

Long live Ben Jones!

35   tsusiat   2007 Mar 17, 3:31pm  

CB -

Geddy Lee? Now that's cool...

BTW, what does anyone think of the Trailer Park Boys?

Reminds me of my old paper route....

36   Randy H   2007 Mar 17, 3:46pm  

lol

My old paper route was in the low-rent end of RuralOhioFarmTownsville. I still remember all the street names: A Street, B Street, C Street, Kentucky Ave., ... you get the idea.

37   tsusiat   2007 Mar 17, 3:49pm  

Beaver Creek Road, Lugrin Road, Falls Road, Johnoson Rd, you get the idea.

Other features of the neighbourhood included a drive in theatre and a chinese restaurant....

38   David J   2007 Mar 17, 4:28pm  

ajh said
"In fact the Christian church even invented the concept of hell (no mention
anywhere in the Bible IIRC), to keep the sheople attending and tithing… "

The King James Bible has references to Hell in Deuteronomy, Psalms, Proverbs, Isaiah, Ezekiel, and Jonah. All of these Books are in the Old Testament which predates Christianity.

39   Brand165   2007 Mar 17, 4:35pm  

That area cannot go down in price because it is hell-locked.

It's the second most popular destination in the afterlife, and they aren't making any more Hell! Stunning lakeviews (of fire), constant attention (from pitchfork wielding nasties) and more people arriving all the time! Hell is such a premier destination that none of its residents ever leave! Californians and Texans, we are offering a special relocation program just for you--contact our representatives for all the details.

LIMITED TIME OFFER: Now offering a no doc, stated income, interest only loan with a term of eternity! Don't listen to those fools recommending amortizing your borrowed time and settling up in your present life--debt is the path to eternal riches! Now you can spend forever paying back your debt with a low, low monthly payment! You CAN take your mortgage with you after all! Call now, operators are standing by.

:twisted:

Warning: While many find the path to Hell to be a really fun ride, the reset on your Adjustable Rate life may provide some sticker shock. Inferno, Inc. accepts no liability for any material misrepresentations made during this infomercial, nor does it guarantee specific suitability of our One Size Fits All program for your individual immortal soul. Satisfaction may vary depending on expectations of the afterlife, religious persuasion and your state of origin.

40   Bruce   2007 Mar 17, 6:57pm  

I fear a future in which an A4 Quattro costs $175k and a 2/2/2 SFH rents for $9200/mo, or 11% less than buying it.

41   Bruce   2007 Mar 17, 6:59pm  

...that is, unless my net worth is then $17mm.

42   ozajh   2007 Mar 17, 8:56pm  

I stand corrected. Apologies.

Yes, I was thinking only of the New Testament.

43   ozajh   2007 Mar 17, 8:58pm  

I fear that the REIC+FB community will be considered 'too big to let fail'.

44   Michael Holliday   2007 Mar 17, 11:18pm  

allah Says:

"The only thing we have to fear is fear itself."
_____

Let's examine this axiomatic truth a little more closely. I believe there is something deeper contained within this old saying.

The only thing we have to fear is fear "itself?"

ITS ELF!

The Elf of fear.

So, now that we have mined the glittering gem of meaning from within the muddy soil of this bromide, we can restate it thusly: The only thing we have to fear is: fear, its Elf.

Fear its Elf? I don't fear its Elf. And neither should you!
Its Elf is a big wussie!

Now if we could somehow remove from the context of that saying, this little Elf of fear, this little imp, then perhaps fear would be drained of its noxious vitality. Perhaps if we could kill this damn little fear Elf, then fear would be enervated, if not outright conquered and evaporate into thin air like an imaginary specter whose time had come.

So what is the moral of this story, you ask?

Kill the Elf of fear and fear becomes less empowered, than, say, a few cookie crumbs on your kitchen table.

45   Bruce   2007 Mar 17, 11:31pm  

I want some of whatever Michael H is taking or smoking or freebasing...

46   Malcolm   2007 Mar 17, 11:47pm  

I thought real estate couldn't fall more than 20%. Atleast that's what all the realtors on TV keep saying.

47   Malcolm   2007 Mar 17, 11:49pm  

Has anyone EVER heard a realtor say that it wasn't a good time to buy?

48   Malcolm   2007 Mar 18, 12:04am  

Add to that, the owner of the building that the elevator is in can't pay his electric bill because he is in preforeclosure, so they shut the power off to the elevator in between floors.

Then after the auction the new owner opens the elevator doors, and the JBRs are still alive because they know how to subsist off you.

49   Malcolm   2007 Mar 18, 12:07am  

While stuck in the elevator you weren't able to respond to some frivolous lawsuits by the tenants of the building so your estate loses it, and still owes money on the judgments.

50   Malcolm   2007 Mar 18, 12:11am  

The good news is that your heirs file a wrongful death suit against the original owner of the building.

The bad news is that he has no assets to attach. But they feel better knowing that justice was served because they have a court judgment.

51   Randy H   2007 Mar 18, 1:04am  

I fear being stuck on the same elevator as theotherside. Not because of her faux wit or JBNLIB (jealous bitter no longer investment banker) status; but because of those pink knee-high boots she's wearing.

52   Peter P   2007 Mar 18, 1:53am  

While stuck in the elevator you weren’t able to respond to some frivolous lawsuits by the tenants of the building so your estate loses it, and still owes money on the judgments.

But how will you be served though? Will the process server just yell through the elevator doors?

53   Bruce   2007 Mar 18, 2:14am  

As long as SurferX was present in the elevator, I expect I could stand to share space with TOS or even Confused Opinions. I assume order would prevail.

By the way - are there any photos around of past blog festivities? I have an image of SFWoman as a Kirstin Scott Thomas doppelganger. True?

54   Peter P   2007 Mar 18, 2:32am  

As long as SurferX was present in the elevator, I expect I could stand to share space with TOS or even Confused Opinions. I assume order would prevail.

Surfer is at least 74% less offensive in person. And he makes good mac-n-cheese.

Stick with simple regression-based analyses (like the MIT paper) and understand that long term predictions are tricky because psychology plays such an important part…

Psychology does not play an important part. It is the whole damn thing.

Stick with your instinct.

55   Malcolm   2007 Mar 18, 2:33am  

'But how will you be served though? Will the process server just yell through the elevator doors?'

Notice served to his assistant at the rental office. Can do, if it is his place of business.

56   Peter P   2007 Mar 18, 2:35am  

When in doubt, consider fear as the only driver of history. Learn to love fear.

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