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Fear: what are you afraid of?


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2007 Mar 17, 8:47am   24,725 views  231 comments

by Peter P   ➕follow (2)   💰tip   ignore  

We the people are primarily driven by emotion. Fear, as the most powerful emotion has undoubtedly influenced major events and decided the course of history. Sometimes, I wish that we can be rational and spend more time thinking.

We should think before we act. Or will that be too late? Perhaps we should just act?

Are we being priced out of the Bay Area housing market as we contemplate? Or is the other side just being silly?

Is "global warming" a clear and present danger? Or is it simply creative environmentalism?

Will the housing bubble burst? Or will there be a soft landing?

Are the poles going to reverse in 2012? Or is that just fear-mongering.

If only we could live without fear, we would have achieved much more as a people.

#housing

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118   DinOR   2007 Mar 19, 12:19am  

Malcom, (from previous)

I'm not sure that's the "frank" I used to know? An occasional poster here that used that screen name was a real sensible mid-western kind of guy and never antagonistic. If it IS the same guy... I dunno, severe bump on the head?

A few years ago when we first moved in town (from the country) I was assigned a new phone number. Pffft, my luck it turns out it belonged to the biggest dead beat in Marion County history. The calls I got were beyond RUDE! (And it takes a lot to steam a cold-call broker!) I even got a call from my drinking buddy (manages local tire store) and I said "Dude, you don't recognize me when you're sober do you?"

Well after enduring about as much profanity as I was going to take I contacted the AG (for Indiana) and it all stopped! I just hated their explantion to the AG. Some form letter BS about "attempting to collect on a debt from someone w/a similar or identical name". That really fried me b/c our last names were nothing alike and there are only 7 living males w/my last name, none of which are "Matt". Nice try, @ssclown.

119   SFWoman   2007 Mar 19, 1:10am  

My Ron Paul newsletter arrived this morning:

"But capitalism is not to blame for the housing bubble, the Federal Reserve is. Specifically, Fed intervention in the economy-- through the manipulation of interest rates and the creation of money-- caused the artificial boom in mortgage lending...."

http://www.house.gov/paul/tst/tst2007/tst031907.htm

FAB,
I would strongly disagree that NBC and MSNBC were at all liberal leading up to the Iraq war. I'd also challenge the rich Jews =neocons. Some wealthy Jews, mainly those associated with either the American or Israeli defence industries or associated with some of the more aggressive neo-zionist movements are neocons, but I think the perspective that this is widely supported in the Jewish community is from AIPAC's spin and ability to stifle public discussion of Israeli policy with their (and Alan Dershowitz's) instant labelling of such discussion as anti-Semitic. I have several affluent Jewish friends who are actively involved in the peace movement.

120   SFWoman   2007 Mar 19, 1:31am  

justme,

I'd blame media consolidation for a good part of the decline of solid investigative journalism. GE owns NBC and MSNBC, can you imagine a good investigative piece on any GE related issue? Murdoch owns Fox and large numbers of papers and media outlets. Murdoch has publicly stated that he tried to help re-elect Bush in 2004 (just before he held a fundraiser in NYC for Hillary Clinton). Fair and Balanced? Then there's Viacom and Clearchannel.

I am firmly in the belief that a free and functioning media is necessary for a democracy to survive, and our media isn't performing its function well at all.

I think we did all see the failure of the media to report on the real estate industry bubble in its earlier stages. Many of the articles we saw were actually cheer-leading articles, little more than advertisements in fact, written by Realtor(TM). Unfortunately that is what we get about a lot of issues in the news today, and this is harmful if you are a liberal or conservative or libertarian. It's not news, it's propaganda and it is very, very effective at fooling most people.

121   astrid   2007 Mar 19, 1:35am  

I think good reporting still exists, we just need to search harder for it online and do more mental filtering based on source. Traditional newspapers and newsmagazines and even TV news are just in their prolonged death throes. They'll be irrelevant in twenty years or less.

122   FormerAptBroker   2007 Mar 19, 2:05am  

SFWoman Says:

> FAB, I would strongly disagree that NBC and MSNBC
> were at all liberal leading up to the Iraq war.

If you have a story that is getting a lot of viewers (e.g. new war, DNA test of a blue dress) the liberals at the big networks will put aside their views to get the ratings…

> I’d also challenge the rich Jews =neocons.

The rabbi that was on KGO radio yesterday morning said that only about 15% of the Jews in America are conservative, but those 15% (like the Crown family the largest shareholders in General Dynamics) give about 85% of the Jewish political donations…

P.S. The rabbi I heard on the radio was planning an anti-war protest outside Pelosi’s office today and he might be down there right now…

123   Peter P   2007 Mar 19, 2:20am  

Have you considered the possibility of connecting a different monitor to the port at the back?

The screen is usable. I just need to keep it from falling apart with one hand. :)

124   SFWoman   2007 Mar 19, 2:28am  

FAB,

Was the rabbi Michael Lerner from Tikkun? I really respect a lot of his views.

125   MtViewRenter   2007 Mar 19, 2:30am  

Peter,

I got this in my inbox today:

Now take 12% off already low Outlet prices on a refurbished Dimensionâ„¢ or XPSâ„¢ desktop priced at or above $500!
(before tax, fees, shipping & handling)

Enter coupon code¹ at checkout: L4XFXJR2PQHK3M
Hurry! Coupon expires 3/21 or after the first 300 redemptions, whichever comes first. Online only.

I bought a XPS m1210 last year. It's worked out pretty well, though it doesn't have the eraser-style mouse you want.

126   Peter P   2007 Mar 19, 2:36am  

I bought a XPS m1210 last year. It’s worked out pretty well, though it doesn’t have the eraser-style mouse you want.

Thanks, MVR.

It is a nice machine. Probably too good for me.

Somehow my wife does not like Dell too much. I was looking at an outlet D620 with 2G RAM and Vista Business for $999 before I was told to cease and desist. :)

127   MtViewRenter   2007 Mar 19, 2:39am  

Oh, I fear a protracted world recession led by the decline of the US economy.

And the evil monkey.

128   astrid   2007 Mar 19, 2:41am  

I'm afraid of zombie plagues, even humorous zombie plagues.

129   MtViewRenter   2007 Mar 19, 2:53am  

Peter,

The base M1210 at Dell outlet is decently priced, if you're willing to wait for deals. I got mine for ~$850 ($1200 new). They add new inventory around 10pm daily. So I bookmarked the page and checked every night. Mine did come with a faulty stick of RAM, probably the reason it was refurbished in the first place. Fortunately, it was easy to diagnose and they sent a replacement part the next day.

Of course, since your wife doesn't like Dells, I'm just wasting my breath.

130   Peter P   2007 Mar 19, 3:37am  

The philosopher Krishnamurti said the only true emotion is fear. All other emotions are some other form of fear, or a reaction to it.

I somewhat agree, although I think love is a distinct emotion.

For most people, love is an extremely weak emotion. The process of enlightenment will increase its strength. Higher beings have all love and no fear.

131   SFWoman   2007 Mar 19, 3:45am  

newsfreak,

If I ever get TiVo I'll have to watch that show, it sounds surreal.

astrid,

There is some good reporting. I've seen some online, and surprisingly most I've seen has been in the New Yorker (Seymour Hersch) or the Atlantic and even a couple of articles in Vanity Fair. It just hasn't been from mainstream NEWS outlets.

Real Estate- my housekeeper's son bought a house in SF about six years ago and a couple of years later was transferred to LA. He rented out the house while he was gone and was finally transferred back to SF. He tried to give notice to the tenant a few months ago and the tenant is filing a lawsuit to stay. Although he has a legal right to move back into his own house the tenants unions have made the tenants smart enough to game the issue, and the tenants know that in the long run it will be cheaper for him to pay them off to move out than to hire legal help (you need these small real estate attorneys, so my corporate law husband isn't of any help here) and rent an alternate place while you are trying to get them out.

I wonder if any FBs will run into this situation while renting out places they are trying to sell in SF? (He's not an FB, and intends to live in the house, probably forever, so I feel bad for him).

132   HARM   2007 Mar 19, 3:47am  

I don’t think a nuke will be set off.
More probably, they will wait till they have many nukes in many cities, then set them all off at once.

Isn't this the premise of Team America: World Police? I will be afraid when terrorists start emulating puppets.

133   sfbubblebuyer   2007 Mar 19, 3:54am  

Peter P,

Love is fear that you won't reproduce. Fear is the tool your genes use to make copies of themselves, you know. "Don't do that, it'll get you killed!" "Don't be different, or that hot girl won't let you impregnate her!" "Don't drive a crappy car or you won't be able to get a trophy wife once your current one quits droppin' eggs!"

134   Peter P   2007 Mar 19, 4:01am  

Love is fear that you won’t reproduce.

I have no conscious desire to reproduce at this point. I will probably become a bad parent.

135   sfbubblebuyer   2007 Mar 19, 4:05am  

Peter P,

I never claimed it was a concious desire. :) I'm just saying love is how our genes trick us into investing energy in making little squalling vehicles for the genes to keep on going.

136   Peter P   2007 Mar 19, 4:09am  

I’m just saying love is how our genes trick us into investing energy in making little squalling vehicles for the genes to keep on going.

Interesting theory. :)

137   Peter P   2007 Mar 19, 4:12am  

My fear– that spring will never come

Singing along...

...
I have confidence that spring will come again
Besides which you see I have confidence in me
...

138   astrid   2007 Mar 19, 5:20am  

SFWoman,

Agreed. The New Yorker's reporting has been uniformly excellent. I also like reading the New York Review of Books for their Iraq and Bush administration coverage. Brad Delong and Washington Monthly are also pretty good.

139   e   2007 Mar 19, 5:21am  

Sorry for Off-Topic-ing,

Could someone point me in the direction of finding out what the catches of the accelerated mortgage programs were?

I seem to recall a discussion a while back where it was claimed that in New Zealand or UK or somewhere that these mortgages were under scrutiny - but I can't remember why.

140   FormerAptBroker   2007 Mar 19, 5:35am  

SFWoman Says:

> FAB, Was the rabbi Michael Lerner from Tikkun?
> I really respect a lot of his views.

I don't remember the name of the rabbi (he was on Bernie Ward's "God Talk" show that is on early every Sunday)...

141   EBGuy   2007 Mar 19, 5:36am  

Subprime fever strikes the SF Bay Area Craigslist ReduceOMeter
After levelling off for the past couple of weekends, the ReduceOMeter increased to 142 listings for March 16-17.

142   FormerAptBroker   2007 Mar 19, 5:49am  

SF Woman Says:

> My housekeeper’s son bought a house in SF about six
> years ago and a couple of years later was transferred to
> LA. He rented out the house while he was gone and was
> finally transferred back to SF. He tried to give notice to
> the tenant a few months ago and the tenant is filing a
> lawsuit to stay. Although he has a legal right to move back
> into his own house the tenants unions have made the
> tenants smart enough to game the issue, and the tenants
> know that in the long run it will be cheaper for him to pay
> them off to move out than to hire legal help…

Other than the homes they grew up in my parents don’t own any real estate in the city of San Francisco.

I know people that are crazy enough to try and make a profit renting homes and apartments in SF and all of them use Andrew Zacks http://www.zackslaw.com

143   DinOR   2007 Mar 19, 5:51am  

eburbed,

I think the thread was:

Mortgage Acceleration? (Freedom or Bunk?)

Or something like that?

DS alluded to there being "some problem" with them in AU but didn't have any specifics IIRC.

144   DinOR   2007 Mar 19, 5:56am  

CB,

Well..... that's "partly" true. If you want (and can afford) to make double/triple payments then yes, you will knock years off your mortgage! But that only deals with the mort. and none of the other debts like car payments, credit cards, college loans etc.

The trick is to employ a system that allows you to retain your current budget and still attain those same results! But I'm just 'some sales guy' so what would I know? :(

145   e   2007 Mar 19, 6:26am  

Top 10 U-Haul Destinations For 2006

Wow, this is kind of surprising to me. Los angeles is number one on the list. N.Y. didn’t make the list, go figure!

Why are people so eager to move to LA? Still!

146   Malcolm   2007 Mar 19, 6:48am  

eburbed Says:
March 19th, 2007 at 12:21 pm
Sorry for Off-Topic-ing,
Could someone point me in the direction of finding out what the catches of the accelerated mortgage programs were?
I seem to recall a discussion a while back where it was claimed that in New Zealand or UK or somewhere that these mortgages were under scrutiny - but I can’t remember why.

Definitely not off topic. Someone else answered but I thought I could add something. There was a silly offer 'basically a useless scam' where banks for a fee would offer to save you 8 years off of a typical mortgage by redesigning you payment plan to be 1 payment every 4 weeks instead of every month. The principle reduction does knock the term down, but the responder correctly noted that they charge a fee for this 'service' which is ridiculous because you can always add additional principle reduction to your regular payment. Depending on your comfort level take the amount of an extra mortgage payment, multiply it by 2 and then divide it by 12. Add that amount to your monthly mortgage and you have just done it yourself for free. If you know how to use Excel try amortizing the loan on it, and play around with increasing your payment on your own. You will see the balance reaches zero further up the list. When you get it to reach 0 at the point that you wish, that is what your payment should be. Otherwise just post the numbers on a thread and I or someone else will be happy to crunch the numbers for you.

147   Malcolm   2007 Mar 19, 6:49am  

Because southern California is the greatest place in the country to live.

148   DinOR   2007 Mar 19, 7:02am  

Malcom,

Back in the late 80's/early 90's I was on a bi-weekly payment program. There was no charge. Of course they really didn't have the technology to support that kind of payment platform at the time. It was a "o.k" deal.

What you're talking about though is exactly WHY most Americans won't make add'l payments. When we attempt to do this ourselves, we do the right thing with our tax return and apply it toward our house and then the transmission falls out of our car! (Or at least we "fear" that will happen). Anyway, the b/l is that next month your lender will be expecting a full and regular payment. Mortgage acceleration is something altogether different. Some sites have pretty advanced calculators and allow for a lot of variables. Have some fun and Google it.

149   DinOR   2007 Mar 19, 7:07am  

Person,

Exactly. I listen to Clark but I can't say I heard that one! I'll take it a step further. A friend's CPA (CPA no less) was within a few years of paying off his 30 yr. so he called the lender and they told him, uh... no. Actually we have your payoff scheduled 3 months/payments later. But..bu?

Seems he didn't take into account the trivial differences in mailing in the payment and the time it actually posts into the account, SO......

Of all the english speaking countries we have the WORST relationships w/our lenders. Bar none.

150   astrid   2007 Mar 19, 7:10am  

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/18/realestate/18cov.html?pagewanted=all

"they are putting up most of the money to help her buy a two-bedroom penthouse apartment in Williamsburg, Brooklyn, for $900,000...They said that they wanted to help their three daughters equally. They had already bought their daughter Monisha, 29, an apartment on the Upper West Side, but when she married, she needed a larger place. They have told their third daughter, Pia, 23, that they will help her in the future. "

Where does NYT find these people?

151   FormerAptBroker   2007 Mar 19, 7:50am  

astrid posts a clip from the NYT that Says:

> “they are putting up most of the money to help her buy
> a two-bedroom penthouse apartment in Williamsburg,
> Brooklyn, for $900,000…

Then says:

> Where does NYT find these people?

It’s probably the same crowd that sends in the wedding announcements with stuff like “Chip was a starting lacrosse player all four years at Andover”…

Soon after I turned 16 a friend in Palo Alto told me that the widow of a Stanford professor down the street from him was selling his clean ’72 BMW 2002tii for $4K.

I asked my parents if I could borrow $1,200 to buy the car and pay them back $100 a month with interest. They gave me a long lecture about debt and told me that only idiots borrow money to buy cars.

That was the one and only time I ever asked my parents to borrow money. I ended up buying a Datsun 510 and saving money so I had enough to pay cash for a 2002 my senior year (it was not a tii or as nice as the one I wanted to buy at 16).

152   e   2007 Mar 19, 7:52am  

You could live in a real mansion in Buffalo and fly JetBlue to NYC every weekend for the rest of your life, staying at a nice hotel, and still come out better than buying.

For a lot of people in NY, money doesn't matter. There was a great article in the NY Times a few weeks ago about how a lot of buildings in Manhattan are now half empty - because they're third or fourth homes. (Doormen are outraged - less tips!)

That's one of the things that drives me bonkers when people cite SF real estate as being the next NY.

Uh... no.

There are rich people in SF.
There are wealthy people in NY. That's the difference.

I wrote about that in this entry recently:

http://www.burbed.com/2007/03/18/what-silicon-valley-needs-to-do-to-beat-ny/

153   e   2007 Mar 19, 7:54am  

Everyone has an angle to make money from the barrios to the skyline glass offices without making any tangible products.

Um... how is that different than anywhere else?

154   e   2007 Mar 19, 7:55am  

There was a silly offer ‘basically a useless scam’ where banks for a fee would offer to save you 8 years off of a typical mortgage by redesigning you payment plan to be 1 payment every 4 weeks instead of every month.

Actually what I was talking about is a lot more sophisticated than that. It's not simply a pay-more-often thing, but rather a scheme that involves a HELOC.

155   Allah   2007 Mar 19, 7:55am  

Top 10 U-Haul Destinations For 2006

Wow, this is kind of surprising to me. Los angeles is number one on the list. N.Y. didn’t make the list, go figure!

Why are people so eager to move to LA? Still!

Actually, it doesn't tell you where they are coming from, it could mean that many are coming from another part of LA. This could be a bunch of renters who have left their apartment to find a better deal.

156   e   2007 Mar 19, 7:56am  

Oh noes... we've fallen down the list!

http://www.housingtracker.net/affordability/?sort=pct-income

City, State Affordability Percent Income Mortgage/Rent Price/Income Price/Rent
Los Angeles, California 62 1.7 10.4 335
San Diego, California 53 1.7 8.9 343
Oakland, California 52 1.9 8.7 393
Santa Ana, California 52 1.7 8.8 346
Honolulu, Hawaii 51 1.8 8.7 353
New York, New York 50 1.6 8.4 323
San Francisco, California 47 1.9 8 393
San Jose, California 46 2 7.8 406
Miami, Florida 45 1.4 7.6 280
Riverside, California 42 1.6 7.1 314
Tacoma, Washington 36 1.5 6.1 293
Fort Lauderdale, Florida 35 1.4 6 280
West Palm Beach, Florida 33 1.4 5.7 280
Barnstable Town, Massachusetts 33 1.5 5.6 312
Sacramento, California 33 1.2 5.6 248
Las Vegas, Nevada 32 1.3 5.4 262
Reno, Nevada 31 1.2 5.3 245
Atlantic City, New Jersey 31 1.3 5.3 268
Nassau, New York 30 1.5 5.2 307
Sarasota, Florida 30 1.4 5.2 286

We used to be really at the top - now we're further down below. Where has our specialness gone!

157   PAR   2007 Mar 19, 8:18am  

http://www.paperdinero.com/CSI.aspx

Neeto chart making widget based on Case/Shiller data.

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