patrick.net

It is true that a lot of people have been on the sideline. These people will just right into the market. It is going to take a while.

Can you site specific areas you’re seeing this in?

I am looking at the San Jose / Santa Clara / Sunnyvale / Mountain View area.

Peter, a drop in listed inventory might not indicate that people are buying. It might just mean that a lot of listings got yanked. I bet that California is going to see a major credit squeeze, considering that money suppliers have cut off the "creative" neg-am and IO loans for subprime and Alt-A.

On the other hand, I do have some bad news from the Fort Collins, CO front. Remember those $250K-600K downtown lofts that I am fond of mocking? In just the last month, it appears that the most desirable buildings have nearly sold out. I don't know who the heck is buying these units, but they are braver than I. But perhaps I might enjoy the luxurious lifestyle by renting up there for a while. We shall see. :)

I have the impression in hallway discussions that many people feel that the subprime thing is "out in the open", and thus can do no more damage to the economy or mortgages. The Dow is surging forward again, and that seems to give people confidence in the economy.

I have never really followed a dead cat bounce in real estate or the stock market. I do suspect that people who are exuberant at the moment could easily be deflated by another fall in the stock market or a spike in interest rates.

Are those school addicts going out in force? When do they have to close before being able to register for school?

Peter, a drop in listed inventory might not indicate that people are buying.

I understand. But a slight increase in buying activity on light inventory will lead to bidding wars and temporarily booming prices.

My numbers (using mlslistings.com) shows inventory in Santa Clara County is creeping up on a daily basis. Where are you getting your numbers?

However, "prime" areas like Mountain View and Saratoga seem pretty flat. I don't see actual declining inventory in any area that I am tracking.

My numbers (using mlslistings.com) shows inventory in Santa Clara County is creeping up on a daily basis. Where are you getting your numbers?

Probably because I concentrate on newer condos and townhouses. Strangely, prices are not higher than those of last year.

I don’t see actual declining inventory in any area that I am tracking.

Good to hear.

I lump everything together (condo/SFH). I agree that prices seem around the same as last year. The "bigger" inventory gains (where I only track SFH) seem to be in San Jose (Willow Glen/Rose Garden). Cupertino and Sunnyvale have almost exactly the same amount of inventory as they did at this time last year. Mtn. View has significantly lower inventory YOY.

Does anyone have information about RE agents refusing to take listings, if home isn't priced right?

Oh fuck yeah, housing is set for a steep run-up, there is a ton of pent up demand coupled with a robust manufacturing sector and ample googlebucks. Fuck just yesterday I bought something from Google, oh, wait a minute, come to think of it, I have never actually paid google anything. But the BA is just so gosh darn special, what with all that great scenery and weather. Oh wait a minute. Oh fuck it. It just goes up doesn't it?

BA is special. Especially ghetto.

BA is special, when my friends come visit, they always wondered why it is so dark everywhere. Here is a link I took from a RW, it lists the SFH around my area (Santa Clara), looks like some are still getting over asking and DOM is short for some houses. Maybe because we have more street lights than other areas. I tend to think it's mostly falling knives catchers.

http://isvr.net/usr/1014239373/CustomPages/rivermarkSFMarketUpdate.htm

Perhaps my searches have glitches then. Let's forget about this thread...

Perhaps my searches have glitches then. Let’s forget about this thread…

I dunno... my personal driving seems to indicate that levels aren't all that great

Listings are up, sales are up, prices are down just a tiny bit in Noe Valley.

Sales really have picked up. People have started pricing things at 20% less than last year, igniting bidding wars. Selling prices are down 5-10% from the peak a year and a half ago.

But sales were dead last year and have really picked up. I only closely follow the market here.

I sort of watch a few West of Twin Peak neighborhoods, but not closely enough to really offer an opinion of them.

OT:

John Rubino has posted parts of a Charlotte, NC story about foreclosures flying 'under the radar'.

We often say here that real estate is local. Looks like regulation and oversight may just be local too.

http://www.safehaven.com/article-7190.htm

In SF there seem to be a LOT of new condos and some TICs that are not listed on the MLS. I think the MLS numbers don't represent everything.

A lot of the newer places have large buyers 'incentives'.

PAR,

(from previous)

Thanks for the Bloomberg link to the Jim Grant interview! Due to the fact that the whole process of "securitizing" of MBS was done behind closed doors the news anchors really had no choice but to let Jim do his thing. Most of us really don't understand how that process takes place (in spite of what we may have thought). He really hammered the ratings services. Good for Jim!

...buzz
...buzz
...buzz

A hand reaches out from a tumble of covers, like a zombie arm from some grade B sci fi flick emerging from the grave...it fumbles for the alarm to shut it off...it seem to have a life of its own, as walks across the nightstand...fingers do the walking, bumping into thinks like the night lamp...probing like antennae

Knocks over cup of Hi-C fruit punch in the process...
Day-old punch, with tiny dead moth floating in it, puddles on the nightstand next to the two-day old Dominos pizza slice, runs down the side, and dribbles in drabs onto the carpet below, making semi-evenly spaced but clearly audible tapping sounds...

Time to get up and face another day in the housing market. Low and behold, housing is supposedly going up again!

Fumbling fingers make their way across the night stand...

Hand touches chocolate chip cookie & grabs it...
Brings it to mouth with closed eyes...
Mouth opens...lip touches tip of rouch cookie...taste is semi-sweet...teeth take a bite...a muffled crunch-munching sound is made with closed mouth...half the cookie crumbles onto the covers...crumbs tumble like quarters out of a jackpotting slot machine...chocolate chips stick to cover...

A shard of morning sunlight makes it through a crack in the blinds & strikes me on the left eye, which opens...

I grab the remote and turn on CNBC...fresh, young, blond-haired chick smiles and says real estate appears to be changing direction. Her infectious smile and enthusiasm bely a deep, more disturbing truth about the housing market in general and the US economy in particular:

Shit is about to hit the fan!

I notice she has a little piece of red meat stuck between her front teeth. Perhaps a bit of breakfast sausage? It bothers me.

I lean forward to get a better look.

The little piece of meat disturbs me because it totally throws off her wholesome look. It is a sign, an omen. A harbinger of dark truth behind a clean, All-American pretense...

There also seems to be quite a few unlisted homes on CL.

M Holliday; "I notice she has a little piece of red meat stuck between her front teeth. Perhaps a bit of breakfast sausage? It bothers me."

High-definition TV changes everything. Actualy, this time it is different because now we get to watch it in high def.

DinOR, no prob. I quite enjoyed that interview. I'm becoming quite addicted to bloomberg, both video and print. I like Baum a lot.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/commentary/baum.html

Michael Holiday is the housing bubble's version of Charles Bukowski... Addicted to fruit punch and cookies instead of booze, of course.

Speaking of fear tactics, could realtors be pointing out to potential buyers that funding is drying up; and that it may again be now or never to get into the market?

Mike a.k.a/Sage Says:

> Does anyone have information about RE
> agents refusing to take listings, if home
> isn't priced right?

Most (but not all) people that don't price their home to sell fall in to two camps, the people who don't want to sell or the people who can't sell.

To use a car analogy:

The person who does not want to sell is like the guy who hired a
professional pin striper to write FOR SALE and his hone number in the back
window of his '57 Chevy six years ago.

The person who can't sell is like the guy who bought the loaded Ford V10
pickup last year and owes a lot more than people are paying got trucks that get 8 mpg in a world of $3.50/gal gas.

There are only two reasons that a real estate agent will take an overpriced
listing:

1. They are desperate and don't have any other listings (and the odds of
getting paid on an overpriced listing are better than playing the lottery).

2. The house is high profile and will get them free publicity (I don't think
that guy that listed the University of Phoenix guys house in Pacific Heights
a couple years back really thought it was going to sell for $65mm).

Speaking of fear tactics, could realtors be pointing out to potential buyers that funding is drying up; and that it may again be now or never to get into the market?

If funding is really drying up, who still wants to buy?

Brent, of course they are. Just like they are telling people that interest rates are still hanging around the lowest they've been in 30 years. It's perverse logic too, when you consider all the news about people getting in over their heads. "Quick, you better get into a toxic loan that you can't really afford before someone comes to their senses and no longer offers it to you!"

Funding isn't that dry... yet.

Peter p-

That's a higher altitude question than most can answer. Remember the Red Bull fortune is based on creating the fear of being grounded, and our current political duopoly thrives on the fear of throwing away one's vote.

Fear is really interesting.

I'm hardly the first to notice all the "phantom" inventory out there and C/L is but one example. Here in the Portland market we have Hasson Realtors, a 1% shop that seems to be real popular with the Portland DIY crowd.

Just last night I'd seen a home just outside of Salem, OR that had all the tell tale marks of a flip gone bad. Originally built in 1935 this 1,000 s/f wonder was given a quick "once over" and priced at 300K. (Now it's posted on MLS as a "new" listing) and priced at 240K. What makes it noteworthy is this 20% reduction comes in the lower end of our inventory. Most everything else is priced between 400 and 600K.

I'm looking at a hot sheet for top end homes in SF/Marin. Just for one office; may not be representative of others.

New listings: 19
Canceled listings: 3
Expired listings: 15

Sold: 4
Contingent: 1
Pending: 16

Price reduced: 18
Price increased: 5

Dropped: 7

The sold $ in 3 of 4 is less than list $, but only slightly. Biggest delta is $45,000 on a $2.795m home. 1 of 4 went over by $15,000 (on a $3.125m).

--
Question for experts:

What does it mean when a homes sells and is recorded twice in the same day. Example: 3/1/07-$1,900,000 then 3/1/07-$1,300,000 recorded the same day to the same owner? The home was listed at $1,985,000.

One data point:
http://www.housingtracker.net/askingprices/California/SanJose-Sunnyvale-SantaClara/

They show *really* big changes.

But it's probably just a blib. Looking around, there are similar blips in Chicago, and last week, in Jacksonville.

Btw - that data comes from Realtor.com, so I think Peter and housingtracker are getting their bad data from the same place.

no noticable drop in MLSListings.com. Unless you count prices - those are dropping noticeably.

But it’s probably just a blib.

Could the blib be explained astrologically? :)

@PAR,

Thanks for the link --the Rentometer is pretty cool!

Randy,

Not sure of the answer to your question, but I have a theory. Could it be that the $1.3M refers to the reconveyance of the prior deed of trust (eg: seller's lien), which would record at close of escrow, along with the new deed of trust (buyer's lien)?

@Surfer-X,

A weekend road trip to NCAL to Marin Brewing Co./NCAl blog party sounds pretty do-able to me, as long as I get a little advance warning.

something seems fishy

Like sushi?

One thing though, interest for homes has not dropped much. However, the fear of being priced out is no longer there. We are at some sort of temporary equilibrium for now. Or should I say stable disequilibrium?

If HARM and Surfer-X are coming, I will make every effort to join in.

Perhaps we should invite Jack as well. Anyone still remember Jack of Fairfax?