patrick.net

Harm - I would join you in any anti real estate establishment bashing. They have left themselves very open to criticism.

Jimbo,

That just sounds like a couple Google or MSN portlets.

If Lexis and Westlaw were smart, they could probably mine their databases for some interesting mass market products.

I was thinking the same thing. I've always thought the Otherside was smart but today she doesn't seem as misguided as usual.

theotherside -
I would up that to 50-55%
agree on #2, except who cares for school districts...
not everyone is married,
new construction will continue, life goes one
Hey they are still building homes in Japan..
no, there will be no softlanding... face first !

2- The drop will be more severe in CA, FL, Midwest, or in the ghettos, but not that dramatic in the good school district areas.

Basically the areas which became inflated. Southern California has already dropped 10%, actual observable forget the propaganda. It is only beginning. The subprime meltdown is just another forseen stage in this slow moving train wreck.

I mean 50-55% in Bay Area...

its my understanding there will multiple offers for this charmer...NOT!
$500K for this...POS!

http://www.mlslistings.com/common/properties/propertyDetail.asp?open=0&page=3&mls_number=707047&type=property&name=

Jimbo, nice idea but there are plenty of private investment groups playing around with that kind of paper.

Space, you don't think you could find a renter will to pay $4,000 per month for that charmer?? lol

It should be advertised with a free flack jacket or bullet proof vest. Holy crap.

2- The drop will be more severe in CA, FL, Midwest, or in the ghettos, but not that dramatic in the good school district areas.

To sound even more academic they could say, the west coast, the east coast, and the midwest. I read about some gloating going on in OR and WA about how the bubble never hit them, and prices still rising. I thought it was pretty self explanatory.

I get to VOTE today in the state election. Registration and voting is COMPULSORY for all adults citizens at federal, state and local election, under pain of a 50 buck fine. The functional equivalents of the dems and the repugs are both on the nose to the electorate, so the greens and a motley crew of independents are expecting a slew of votes.

In the meantime, rents are GOING UP in the city, and I am facing a 25% increase myself. The reasons for it could well be market-pumping by the REI, given that they faxed out a letter to all RE agents encouraging them to put rents up by 10-20%. Not sure what the agenda is -- helping out underwater specuvestors who purchased in the boom, or keeping up sales by encouraging tenants to jump ship and Buy Something At Last. This is a media watch exposé of the trend:

Media Watch: Front Page - Who's Raising The Rent? (26/02/2007)

I have personally managed to get 40 apartments to submit a joint application to the Tenancy tribunal for a hearing on the increase. THis could be some sort of record. Only problem is that the Tenancy Act 1987 makes the prime consideration for appeal 'market rates', whatever they are, requiring lots of comparables. Fortunately, we have lots of comparables, but when LL A is keeping rents the same and LL B is pushing theirs up 10-20%, it makes 'market rates' very rubbery and insubstantial figures indeed...

"Space, you don’t think you could find a renter will to pay $4,000 per month for that charmer?? lol"

I hear you! BABAHAHAHAHAHAHA
You know there are actually people
out there that think this is workable..
Be affraid! Be very affraid! LMFAO

theotherside has come over to the Dark Side

In the meantime, rents are GOING UP in the city, and I am facing a 25% increase myself.

8O

"In the meantime, rents are GOING UP in the city, and I am facing a 25% increase myself."

REITs like Avalon Comm. is facing WallStreet Pressure.
Low key apts are actually stable.. no pressure but inflation.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AVB&t=5y

It should be advertised with a free flack jacket or bullet proof vest. Holy crap.

Is there such a thing as a bullet proof vest?

PAR :

I will add another anecdotal story. A family I know is returning back to India. They are not putting their house on the market till summer. I asked them about why are they avoiding the strong spring season. They said it might just sit there for a while. In summer they hope to have a quick transaction.

I don't understand the logic, but that's what they are doing.

Free entertainment, courtesy of Allah. Notice how throughout the whole text the words bubble and subprime weren't used once; but surprisingly the word crash was used once, but only referring to the 80's crash. :rol:

I’m not sure it’s happening anymore, though I’m suspicious of what I’m hearing in Mountain View recently, but there were a couple of groups of realtors that got caught submitting faux bids to run up multiple bidding wars on a mark (or two). Nothing like treating home buying like 3 card Monte.

This brings up a real negotiating issue. One way to counteract these sham bidding wars is to emotionally dissociate yourself from the home you bid on. Just like negotiating with a car salesman, be ready to walk away from the deal once the Realtor (TM) starts trotting out the multiple bids crap. Move on to a different house. Call them on their bluff. If the market has truly turned, they'll be calling you back soon enough.

This brings up a real negotiating issue. One way to counteract these sham bidding wars is to emotionally dissociate yourself from the home you bid on. Just like negotiating with a car salesman, be ready to walk away from the deal once the Realtor â„¢ starts trotting out the multiple bids crap.

The problem is that it's not as easy as buying a car.

You want a red 328i with automatic, red leather, etc... no problem. Any dealer can order it or trade for it.

There simply aren't enough houses in Cupertino/Mountain View to do something like that.

One can only have so much patience...

There simply aren’t enough houses in Cupertino/Mountain View to do something like that.

You're just subscribing to the it's different here, they're not making anymore land BS. As I said, if/when the market has truly turned in favor of the buyer, there will be plenty of choices to allow you to walk away. You see, the desperation of going into the negotation with the attitude of "there aren't enough houses in blah blah blah" already puts you at a severe negotiating disadvantage. You've already lost the game.

allah,
WTF is up with that site you keep linking to? Is it made for and by deer-in-the-headlights idiots? Wow.

Jimbo

I'm not looking to compete with the investors already feeding on non-performing paper. What I'm more thinking is some kind of feeder that lets cash rich typical home buyers try to vie for these homes directly. Not as part of a syndicate, but in more of a 1-1 property situation. I'm actually pretty sure this can't be done, for a number of reasons.

How about the idea of going directly to banks? I know we discussed this a while back. The big lenders won't deal but there was some talk about local and small regional banks which hold their higher grade loans back for themselves, but occasionally find them delinquent and want to unload them short. Someone was saying they would do this for anyone who they 'put on their call list'. Any truth to all that?

There simply aren’t enough houses in Cupertino/Mountain View to do something like that.

You’re just subscribing to the it’s different here, they’re not making anymore land BS.

I'd agree with you if you made that argument about condos, or townhouses - but frankly, they really aren't making anymore detached SFH in Mountain View. Especially with the new city council :(

WTF is up with that site you keep linking to? Is it made for and by deer-in-the-headlights idiots? Wow.

I don't know how to say this without sounding sexist... but...

The site that allah links to is in a place where most wives don't work - because it's not that relatively expensive there. So... you just have a lot of clueless housewives who keep posting there.

That place is Long Island, NY.

It's like 10 entries below San Jose on the unaffordability list.

http://www.housingtracker.net/affordability/?sort=pct-income

allah,
WTF is up with that site you keep linking to? Is it made for and by deer-in-the-headlights idiots? Wow.

I love that site! I just can't stop going to it. There is nothing like looking into the minds of these people who just can't see the train ahead. One of my readers started a profile on there to warn them but the moderator removed it along with her posts. I wouldn't be surprised if the site is funded by the NAR. :lol:

Nope. It's owned and operated by:

Bridal Planner Group, Inc
646-13 Main Street
Port Jefferson, New York 11777

Of course! What other industry plays on emotions as much as RE! Weddings!

And funerals. And childcare.

Hm. There's a business idea!

Eternity Reality, Bridal, Childcare, and Funeral Services, LLC.

The site that allah links to is in a place where most wives don’t work - because it’s not that relatively expensive there. So… you just have a lot of clueless housewives who keep posting there.

That place is Long Island, NY.

Yeah that's right, all of us Long Islanders make $300k/yr so that we can easily buy these houses and our wifes can sit at home in the lap of luxury. You do realize that most of those women are either out on maternity leave or are blogging from work.

@TOS,

Nice to see you've decided to join the Dark Side (or at least are drinking a much diluted form of the REIC Kool-Aid).

13- Casey Serin is now a international celebrity and if he manages to avoid Jail, he will make a few millions writing a book…How about our patrick? This world is really not fair

I highly doubt Casey can be considered an "international celebrity" --more like a local curiosity. As far as him making millions on some book deal, he's definitely angling for it (begging for it really), but that also remains to be seen. Right now, he's already lost 3 homes to foreclosure and is facing the 4th (Modesto) and is unable to support himself on whatever modest revenue his blog generates.

Patrick OTH truly deserves a book deal (and Ben).

It’s like 10 entries below San Jose on the unaffordability list.

Is that with the taxes factored in?

allah -
thats a kick ass site... YEA...
now thats what im looking for...
some common sense.

"they really aren’t making anymore detached SFH in Mountain View"

Lots of space on Moffet field.. lots of new development SFH off 85 and central.

Sorry I forgot to add they arent making anymore jobs either...

It should be advertised with a free flack jacket or bullet proof vest. Holy crap.

Is there such a thing as a bullet proof vest?

Peter, AOL has a bullet/stab proof rain coat for $2,000

eburbed -

You are assuming that the current owners will be around. Bear in mind the prior owners left. I expect the same.

Our tech laced economy isnt easy place to work, Plenty of stress and family pressures. Ultimately it no wonder that divorce is pretty high. People do get fed up and just leave the bay area.

More interesting enough we still have plenty that are awaiting the next Google to a part of. Chances of that are slim. The next down turn in tech will shake out lots of excess as it did back in 1990. If it happens in 2007-09 all the better. Recessions are very swift and unpredictable around here.

"We've had agents blow all sorts of smoke up our arses. We heard all too many times "There's another bidder! Get your offer in quickly!" Even in in 2005, when things were very hot, that was mostly nonsense.

Whenever an agent said that, my response was without fail: "Too bad -- we REALLY liked this house, but we don't want to get into a bidding war. Let's not make an offer on this house. Take us to the next one."

Somehow, the other bid never materialized, and we always got a follow up call on the house. ("Gee, they didn't want it; I wonder what's wrong with it? No thanks!")

If you want to fabricate fake bids, go to eBay; that's what its there for . . ."

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2007/03/rules_for_real_.html

Somehow, the other bid never materialized, and we always got a follow up call on the house. (”Gee, they didn’t want it; I wonder what’s wrong with it? No thanks!”)

We never competitively bid either. In fact it went from "better make the best, strongest offer you can to beat other bids" to "the seller really encourages you to bid", after telling the agent the same thing.

We always paid below list price, from the early 90s through to our last house. Being naive I thought this was the way it worked, and was somewhat surprised when my sister moved out here and informed me she had "won" against 7 other bidders in Sunnvale circa 1999. But then in 2002 we again paid under list price -- $125K below. But in 2005 we also sold for $50K under list. I guess no one clued me or those I bought/sold with in on the etiquette of how to behave in a bubble.

Back to the inventory topic.

I think Evergreen will be the next casualty - like Morgan Hill/Gilroy/Tracy etc - but much nearer to the "Fortress" area. The inventory is touching 350 already. This is very near the max it had in last Summer at 385.

If you concentrate only on the Fortress, the bubble seems to be alive. You just need to peek over the walls to see what's happening "out there".

In the meantime, rents are GOING UP in the city, and I am facing a 25% increase myself.

That is wild. I've never heard of an increase that steep in one go. Are they doing a renovation or is there just shortage of rental units?