patrick.net

Nope. It's owned and operated by:

Bridal Planner Group, Inc
646-13 Main Street
Port Jefferson, New York 11777

Of course! What other industry plays on emotions as much as RE! Weddings!

And funerals. And childcare.

Hm. There's a business idea!

Eternity Reality, Bridal, Childcare, and Funeral Services, LLC.

The site that allah links to is in a place where most wives don’t work - because it’s not that relatively expensive there. So… you just have a lot of clueless housewives who keep posting there.

That place is Long Island, NY.

Yeah that's right, all of us Long Islanders make $300k/yr so that we can easily buy these houses and our wifes can sit at home in the lap of luxury. You do realize that most of those women are either out on maternity leave or are blogging from work.

@TOS,

Nice to see you've decided to join the Dark Side (or at least are drinking a much diluted form of the REIC Kool-Aid).

13- Casey Serin is now a international celebrity and if he manages to avoid Jail, he will make a few millions writing a book…How about our patrick? This world is really not fair

I highly doubt Casey can be considered an "international celebrity" --more like a local curiosity. As far as him making millions on some book deal, he's definitely angling for it (begging for it really), but that also remains to be seen. Right now, he's already lost 3 homes to foreclosure and is facing the 4th (Modesto) and is unable to support himself on whatever modest revenue his blog generates.

Patrick OTH truly deserves a book deal (and Ben).

It’s like 10 entries below San Jose on the unaffordability list.

Is that with the taxes factored in?

allah -
thats a kick ass site... YEA...
now thats what im looking for...
some common sense.

"they really aren’t making anymore detached SFH in Mountain View"

Lots of space on Moffet field.. lots of new development SFH off 85 and central.

Sorry I forgot to add they arent making anymore jobs either...

It should be advertised with a free flack jacket or bullet proof vest. Holy crap.

Is there such a thing as a bullet proof vest?

Peter, AOL has a bullet/stab proof rain coat for $2,000

eburbed -

You are assuming that the current owners will be around. Bear in mind the prior owners left. I expect the same.

Our tech laced economy isnt easy place to work, Plenty of stress and family pressures. Ultimately it no wonder that divorce is pretty high. People do get fed up and just leave the bay area.

More interesting enough we still have plenty that are awaiting the next Google to a part of. Chances of that are slim. The next down turn in tech will shake out lots of excess as it did back in 1990. If it happens in 2007-09 all the better. Recessions are very swift and unpredictable around here.

"We've had agents blow all sorts of smoke up our arses. We heard all too many times "There's another bidder! Get your offer in quickly!" Even in in 2005, when things were very hot, that was mostly nonsense.

Whenever an agent said that, my response was without fail: "Too bad -- we REALLY liked this house, but we don't want to get into a bidding war. Let's not make an offer on this house. Take us to the next one."

Somehow, the other bid never materialized, and we always got a follow up call on the house. ("Gee, they didn't want it; I wonder what's wrong with it? No thanks!")

If you want to fabricate fake bids, go to eBay; that's what its there for . . ."

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2007/03/rules_for_real_.html

Somehow, the other bid never materialized, and we always got a follow up call on the house. (”Gee, they didn’t want it; I wonder what’s wrong with it? No thanks!”)

We never competitively bid either. In fact it went from "better make the best, strongest offer you can to beat other bids" to "the seller really encourages you to bid", after telling the agent the same thing.

We always paid below list price, from the early 90s through to our last house. Being naive I thought this was the way it worked, and was somewhat surprised when my sister moved out here and informed me she had "won" against 7 other bidders in Sunnvale circa 1999. But then in 2002 we again paid under list price -- $125K below. But in 2005 we also sold for $50K under list. I guess no one clued me or those I bought/sold with in on the etiquette of how to behave in a bubble.

Back to the inventory topic.

I think Evergreen will be the next casualty - like Morgan Hill/Gilroy/Tracy etc - but much nearer to the "Fortress" area. The inventory is touching 350 already. This is very near the max it had in last Summer at 385.

If you concentrate only on the Fortress, the bubble seems to be alive. You just need to peek over the walls to see what's happening "out there".

In the meantime, rents are GOING UP in the city, and I am facing a 25% increase myself.

That is wild. I've never heard of an increase that steep in one go. Are they doing a renovation or is there just shortage of rental units?

Some interesting listings from Evergreen. Use ZipRealty to search the reduced listings.

MLS 662837
Price Reduced: 02/06/07 -- $1,255,000 to $1,150,000
Price Reduced: 03/22/07 -- $1,150,000 to $1,080,000

Has been sitting for 150 days.

I've never understood the theory some here have about rents going down. Yes, there are a supply of vacant homes for sale but that doesn't translate in to rental units. There are some desperate owners renting out houses at a loss but those tend to be nicer and I imagine that even at a loss they are on the high side for rentals.
One would think there is tension between home prices and rentals. Low rents are a strain on home prices because of the income approach of valuation, but high prices on houses have an upward pressure on rents because fewer people can actually buy those houses to live in and so they rent while they wait to buy. Also, some current owners who sell or are forced out will look at rentals as being a bargain for what they just left. Just a theory and I'm sure there are huge differences in different areas.

I am searching on ZipRealty.

If I select all cities in Santa Clara county, search for all properties with reduced price listings, get this - there are over 1000 entries. So Zip shows only 200 of them.

So I modified the search to prices range 500K to 1.5M. It still found over 600 listings. NOTE again. These are REDUCED price listings.

This must be a bug. Or is it ?

From Harm- However, as I said, if you buy it from the bank as REO, then no such rule applies. The bank obviously wants to recoup as much of its loss as possible. However, they also do not want to become long-term landlords on a vacant, depreciating asset that is hemorrhaging money (property tax, insurance, maintenance, vandalism, etc.). In a severe downturn, properties can –and have– been sold for steep discounts.

All this is true, and we don't have to rediscuss this, but my point on this thread is they still sell them at the current market price. They list with realtors. In the 90s when I started out, you actually could call the bank and ask for their list of bank owned properties but they seem to list with agents now. The point though is that again, thinking someone is going to waltze into a bank and tell them how it's going to be is kind of arrogant. The market is going to make prices generally attractive, the one in a zillion instant home run will be there evey now and then, but people watch too many of these flip this house shows and really think they are going to buy a house with an instant $50,000 profit. The market is just too efficient for that, you have to add value either in a rehab, or picking an up and coming area.

"Cupertino has its own whole dynamic that probably has more to do with the rising elite class of people in Bangalore and Shanghai than what’s happening in the American economy."

I sure hate to see this elite class walk into my Los Gatos or Saratoga not to mention Woodside.

Randy H,

I can't even imagine how else you might be able to get hold of the property. Try to contact people who are already delinquent and offer to buy it from them? I guess there is already sort of cottage business in this kind of thing. Not my style, personally, though I can see how it might be lucrative.

What did you have in mind?

Is that with the taxes factored in?

Allah, I don't know why you even try. Our West Coast bubble is so much bigger than your East Coast bubble - ours is like the Goodyear Blimp, whereas yours is like a bubble gum sized one.

Have you ever seen any of the properties on Burbed.com?

Like the ugly $574k 3/2 that you cited on MLSLI... you know why at $549k gets you here?

It gets you this:

http://www.burbed.com/2007/03/07/650sqft-located-5-blocks-from-train-tracks/

Oh, and its in a place called Gilroy - it's like basically like Riverhead in terms of distance, and the fact that the main attraction is an Outlet mall.

Wesssst side!

Lots of space on Moffet field.. lots of new development SFH off 85 and central.

Ugh, Moffett field. That place is so polluted all your children will be born deformed. Like that brain cancer cluster near Whisman. Ugh.

I just would like a place that's West of El Camino.

Have people seen this $419k 991 sqfter in San Jose?

http://www.mlslistings.com/common/properties/photo_page.asp?mls_num=710942&Line1Address=1286+MICHIGAN+AV&Line2Address=San+Jose%26nbsp%3BCA%26nbsp%3B95002

I don't understand- did the Marine corp use this to train for fallujah??? How did this happen!

"so polluted all your children will be born deformed"

Actually anyplace in Sunnyvale will give you cancer. You see all the solvents used in Semiconducter production in the 1970s to 80s has containated the groundwater. Anyplace you go youwill find a health notice. Sunnyvale already has a rate of cancer.

You should see what FosterCity looked liked before its development.

I think what HelloKitty said is all legitimate in a normal market, be it up or down. However, the severely down market works entirely differently.

I didn't purchase my house with a buyer agent. We bought it directly from the listing agent and argued some price off while using a lawyer. I used a lawyer back then because
1) it is an existing house built in the 60s, lots of things could go wrong, and it was my first RE purchase in the US, so I wanted to cover my ass on all fronts
2) Lawyer fee was cheap (something like $9xx)

I would characterize the early 90s (the time of my purchase) in South Bay as a normal down market, there were not so many REOs. REOs mushroomed on East Bay, but this side of the bay was pretty calm, there was distress but no panic.

However, in a severaly distressed market, the best way is to negotiate directly with the bank, not the seller. There are several reasons:
1) Banks deal with a large listing agent who has to prove that he/she can unload fast. They fire agents every few months if inventory is not moving off the market fast. If speed is the major concern, playing trick to pocket the 6% is the last thing on the agent's mind.
2) Banks auction REOs off directly, even cutting out the agents.
3) Here is something that I saw in other severely distressed market not mentioned in the press. First of all, I think Hong Kong people in general are quite mild in demeanor and law-abiding. Not so when it comes to losing their lifetime savings. Lots of REO apartments in 2000 and 2001 that my friend, an expert RE vulture, saw, were just in terribly sabotaged stage, even if they were located in good areas. Before vacating their homes, they just trashed the place up, pouring concrete down the pipes, breaking up cabinets, etc. If you are taking it over directly from the sellers, you'd be in for a big surprise. The banks usually have NO time nor interest in fixing them up, so they just sell the sabotaged places as is. So the upside is, you get a sabotaged place for a really beaten-down price.

I'd say deal directly with the bank by 2010.

Of course there are a few stock option wealthy here and there, not enough to inflate the real estate, though.

I would think the first run-up in RE prices here (1998-2000) has something to do with stock options money. Someone I know real well struck IPO pay dirt and was trying to buy at the Avalon McMansion development in Fremont (lowest prices quickly went from like 800K to 1.2M), he lost out on the lottery so he didn't get the house. I left HP at 1993, every job I had after I met people parlay IPO or stock option money into houses.

Gray Davis had a record deficit because he kept the projection of capital gains and stock options which was something like 500% than normal, I would think someone would cash out and bought a few houses and thereby inflated prices.

Well, the second run-up in late 2003 probably has a lot less IPO money.

I would characterize the early 90s (the time of my purchase) in South Bay as a normal down market

Down market indeed, I bought my townhouse in 1991 for 225K, by December 1993, it was appraised as 175K, luckily I was not an FB, and my income grew a lot (%wise) during that time period.

As a normal homebuyer who is doesn't rely on RE investment for living, you cannot possibly compete with those experts who can get the first dip on the best deals. But, they are after the best deals (best price/function performance), not necessarily the best house. Because the best houses don't necessarily generate the best rental yield, which is very important for long-term RE investors who need that to carry the mortgage.

However, it is not that important that you capture the once-in-a-lifetime rock bottom price. If you hold off and buy in 5 years, you are already way ahead of those who bought since 2004. So in a big picture, +/-$10K to squeeze the last bit out the realtors is an after thought, if you can save $400K by postponing your purchase for a few years.

Agents can only play tricks if there are more buyers than sellers. When the number of buyers dwindle drastically, they will volunteer their commission to close the deal. When we bought our place, we wanted the seller to give some money towards the roof, which was approaching its lifetime. The seller refused, and the listing agent volunteered $2K out of her own commission to close the deal. It will happen again.

HelloKitty,

do you see any REO lots? I have never seen any REO lots. Do you know what kind of tricks listing agents usually play dealing with residential lots?

In the meantime, rents are GOING UP in the city, and I am facing a 25% increase myself.
Malcolm Says:
That is wild. I’ve never heard of an increase that steep in one go. Are they doing a renovation or is there just shortage of rental units?

Shortage of rental units, unmitigated greed, etc, etc. They are trying it on without a renovation. As I pointed out with the photos I submitted to the Tribunal. And they aren't even hurting, altho recent investment purchasers probably are.

But this phenomenon may transcend normal supply/demand considerations -- all these recent specuvestors can potentially control the price of housing and rents -- after all the RE agents scammed them into buying with a lousy ROI, now the RE agents can put the rents up to make the dream kum tru...

Hell why buy a home now? In a few months I will have a plethora of Mc Mansions to choose from which I will squat in. The banks will be too busy trying to sort this mess out that they probably won't notice!

Renting will be the new owning, squating will be the new renting and owning will be the new form of serfdom.

DesperateRenter Says:
I’ve been calling the bubble for 7 years now, and prices are still going up! 2007 has been white hot for homeowners

yeah, right. calling it for maybe 3 years, and 2007 has been very far from whitehot for loanowners, particularly with record rates of foreclosure and the folding of subprime lenders...

Malcolm:

I'm not sure how comparable Sarasota and the Bay Area are with respect to the conditions which drive down rental pricing, but the market here in SRQ shows some downward movement in rents.

The key here seems to be excess inventory in new construction and new condo conversions - places which were never sold. No one has been forced to vacate these developments and look for a rental, and there are many empty or nearly empty highrise, zero lot line SFHs, suburban condo complexes, and gated communities either recently completed or in the last stages of completion here. We have boom inventory in a bust climate.

This was true on a much smaller scale in the last downturn here. By 1990, it was easy to find rentals in Sarasota which were originally intended only for sale - a boon to renters like me who don't much care for terrible, stingy flats adjacent to and elegant 'clubhouse/fitness center/pool and spa'.

Over the boom decade, this city became so costly relative to (dull) nearby towns that most renters moved away to Bradenton or Venice and commuted to their work here. If this time is like 1990, many of them will lose those local jobs and go back to wherever. Much as I think of Bradenton as cheap, it's still pricey as compared to inland (similarly dull) towns like Lakeland or Ocala. People go to where they can manage.

If rents went down in SF in 1989, I expect they will again.

- and elegant
+ an elegant

*sigh*

Moron Lenders

Allah, I don’t know why you even try. Our West Coast bubble is so much bigger than your East Coast bubble - ours is like the Goodyear Blimp, whereas yours is like a bubble gum sized one.

I agree that prices are higher in some places on the west coast;salaries are also higher. I have had co-workers move to California (because anywhere is better than here) several years ago BB (before bubble) and get a 20% - 30% higher salary.

There are still some places in California where the cost of living is cheaper than Long Island.

That is why I say you can't compare the two. They are very large areas with varying prices and salaries. The prices over here would be much higher if people got paid more because it seems everyone wants to get the most they can at a how-much-a-month price.

http://www.mercurynews.com/business/ci_5512484

Ohio plans bailout. California to hold hearings on subprime.

HElp! I’ve been calling the bubble for 7 years now, and prices are still going up! 2007 has been white hot for homeowners, what am i going to do but get online and shout and complain!

Deperate Renter (ie Confused Renter/MP/FR):
Here's some "help" - go out and buy the biggest pipe you can at Home Depot and ram it up your a$$ you stupid troll.

lol...Ohio Housing Finance Agency will provide financing for about 1,000 loans with a fixed rate of about 6.75 percent,

LunarPark...
Bail out but no taxes... who will buy the bond? and only 1000 loans.
so what happens when comes to 10,000.

'HElp! I’ve been calling the bubble for 7 years now, and prices are still going up! 2007 '

Wallstreet Journal has had a discussion board since 2002. Chill and watch the meltdown.

High Salaries in Bay Area?

You got to be careful here, I have seen plenty of employers who paid high salaries like Netscape, tandem, amdahl, SGI and others... their problem was out of control spending. That is why they are no longer around.

The better run employers that survive the downturn are very conservativley run. They dont pay as much. Also depends on what your function is. Do you start a new engineer at 100K which is fairly close to a 10-15 year vet in the business. No off coarse not.