patrick.net

It was kind of sad that they had to tell you that the husband was on the left. In most pictures, it's pretty darned apparent who is the man.

There needs to be a way to hack into Second Life causing any computer running it to explode in a manner emitting enough radiation to sterilize the user.

M. Holliday,

The European conflict in WWII was won with Soviet blood. We helped to arm them, but they did the fighting on dying on their front.

In a mostly ignored story of collaboration, on the Asian front Mao's legions pummeled the Japanese with hardware supplied by the USA. Japanese resources diverted to the battles against Mao in China helped to enable the USA in its island hopping to within bomber reach on Japan's eastern front.

What is my point? What was good for the Communists was also what was good for us, to defeat facism at the time.

I don't think the Communist thugs in China attacked us. Maybe they did in Korea. But that was in Korea. It wasn't here.

Who did attack us? Not the Chinese, not the Communists. A facist government in Japan in 1941, and nation-less Islamo-facists on 9/11.

Don't blame China for using our own trade policies against us.

I'm not apologizing for our trade policy with China, no way.
But if you want to bring police state into it,

... why are we exporting our capital to a POLICE-STATE MONARCHY in Saudi Arabia, to people who hate us, people who fund those Islamo-facists that attacked us and killed 3000 of us on our own soil?

sybrib,

I'm not sure if I'm the "princess" you were referring to, but overall, I agree. I'm far from an apologist for what the Chinese government (especially at the regional and local level) does to its own people, but America can't blame the Chinese for its own foreign policies.

The Chinese are not very hostile towards Americans at all. Yes, they appear to take away US jobs - except that if China didn't exist, those jobs would go to Malaysia or Bangladesh. They're not a cultural threat to the US at all. The Chinese government is far more fearful of religious extremism than the US.

And might I go so far as to say, as far as the head of government, Hu Jintao has been far superior to George W. Bush.

sybrib,

Cool it with the "Princess" crap.

The European conflict in WWII was won with Soviet blood. We helped to arm them, but they did the fighting on dying on their front.

The reason there are two "W"'s is because there was sufficient blood spilled across many fronts. 1 of every 26 Merchant Marines died, mostly in the Atlantic, which last I checked was a front in the European theater.

on the Asian front Mao’s legions pummeled the Japanese with hardware supplied by the USA

Where exactly did Mao "pummeled" the Japanese? Fighting Japanese was done mostly by Americans, neither Mao or KMT forces were very effective.

I for one am glad the Morgans have made their appearance. Coverage of this kind nearly always assigns some ethnic flavor or other to the subprime borrower (as this article wastes no time in doing), and the hidden implication is that imperfect language skills or incomplete assimilation are what make for 'predatory lenders' and 'victims'.

But here we have a couple who became homeowners at 30, with an implied history of multiple refinances - how else to explain the $355,000 they now owe? But they are very white, and the meager quotes in the article show no evidence of poor English comprehension.

On a guess, I'd say they've merely gone along all their lives with what everyone else was doing. Houses were expensive in 1977 when compared to the cost in 1970, and interest rates were high and rising. But when you're 30 it's time to stop renting. That's just what people do. Refinancing has been a common thing on several occasions during the past three decades. I'm tempted to say deep-fried tater tots and 64oz big gulps have enjoyed a certain popularity over the years as well, but I won't do that.

Passive people who find safety in crowds may be the real substance of trends and, consequently, of bubbles. If the Morgans ended up this way, how many others with non-hyphenated backgrounds did?

I should try to atone for the tater tots crack.

From what I can see in the photo, their house looks crisp and tidy, they themselves look well-groomed and pleasant (and a little shy of cameras), and I would not be surprised to find they are very nice people.

It's not necessary for people to be awful for them to have become a party to what has been, after all, a fairly common mistake.

HELP Says:

> i would like to apologize for yelling

Now that you have found the “Caps Lock” key look just below it for a (bigger) key called “Shift”. Press the “Shift” key and hold it before you type the letter to start each sentence.

> can i still qualify for 100% financing?

Yes, if you have a good job and a good credit score you can probably still get 100% financing.

Just because you “can” get 100% financing does not mean that you “should” get 100% financing.

Most people that have not been hard working and responsible enough to save up a down payment are not hard working and responsible enough to own a home…

astrid Says:

> On my last flight trip, the woman in the
> middle seat looks to weigh 500+ lbs.
> The surprising thing is that she looked
> quite small when she left the plane, no
> bigger than one Morgan.

Compared to a wide body jumbo jet even the biggest person will look small.

When my single seat race car is parked next to a Tony Kart (an Italian shifter kart that weighs as much as I do) it looks huge, but when parked next to a Morgan (a cool British two seat sports car with a wood frame that weighs quite a bit more than the FBs the Morgans) it looks small…

FAB says:
Most people that have not been hard working and responsible enough to save up a down payment are not hard working and responsible enough to own a home…

What if they spent 5 years travelling the world and broadening their minds, renting in London, then worked for a couple of charities, did another degree to improve their minds, etc etc

DS: That would imply that they are not "most" people in FAB's definition. He did leave room for legitimate possibilities, but I agree they are in short supply.

Brand and DS,
On the other hand, if you make a life choice to travel, "doing good", etc., you have for better or worse made a decision to go off the usual "track" of a daily job grind, saving, buying a house etc. Society has no mechanism to "compensate" you and allow you to buy a home. One should have obviously make that decision with full understanding. A "broadened mind" does not give you an excuse that entitles you to special treatment when buying a home.

Different Sean Says:

I Wrote:

> Most people that have not been hard working
> and responsible enough to save up a down
> payment are not hard working and responsible
> enough to own a home…

Then Different Sean Says:

> What if they spent 5 years travelling the world and
> broadening their minds, renting in London, then worked
> for a couple of charities, did another degree to improve
> their minds, etc etc

Websters definition of “most” is “the majority of”

While Websters defines “every” as “being each individual or part of a group without exception”

Let me revise this to make it clear for Different Sean:

Most (but not all) people that have not been hard working and responsible enough to save up a down payment are not hard working and responsible enough to own a home (so if a guy with a Masters in Engineering from MIT was in Europe getting a PhD. in Engineering and took some time off to travel (or even travell) write a couple books and do volunteer work before joining the Cal Engineering faculty I wouldn’t have a problem if he got 100% financing to buy a fixer upper in Kensington)…

I still don't see any right to home "ownership". I can understand a right to housing, so people have a roof over their head, though I don't even like that kind of government intrusion into the market place. I cannot comprehend why anybody should feel that they have the right to own homes. Has renting become akin to social diseases or illiteracy?

I still don’t see any right to home “ownership”. I can understand a right to housing, so people have a roof over their head, though I don’t even like that kind of government intrusion into the market place.

There is also my God-given right to consume meat products.

FAB,

On a slightly less facetious note, I'd argue even your MIT educated engineering professor does not deserve home "ownership" and is probably not qualified financially unless his position comes with tenure.

astrid Says:

> FAB, On a slightly less facetious note, I’d argue
> even your MIT educated engineering professor
> does not deserve home “ownership” and is probably
> not qualified financially unless his position comes
> with tenure.

No one “deserves” to own a home. I just used an MIT engineering grad as an example since the smartest guy I know has a masters in engineering from MIT (and a MBA from Wharton).

What I can’t figure out is how people who were not abele to save a penny while renting think they can somehow afford to buy a home with no money down paying more each month than they were paying while renting…

What I can’t figure out is how people who were not abele to save a penny while renting think they can somehow afford to buy a home with no money down paying more each month than they were paying while renting…

Because this time, it's DIFFERENT!

Peter P,

Which God?

I've been making sour dough bread this weekend. If I don't post for the rest of this week, I might be dead from food poisoning.

What I can’t figure out is how people who were not abele to save a penny while renting think they can somehow afford to buy a home with no money down paying more each month than they were paying while renting…

The logic typically goes like this: Tax savings. You save on taxes. Uncle Sam is paying you to own that home.

I cannot comprehend why anybody should feel that they have the right to own homes. Has renting become akin to social diseases or illiteracy?

Why do you hate our American Dream(TM)?

I’ve been making sour dough bread this weekend. If I don’t post for the rest of this week, I might be dead from food poisoning.

Gold help you. ;)

I have complete faith in your bread. Let us know how it goes.

It looks like the stock market recovered from it's collective pants wetting this morning when new homes sales info came in.

On the bright side, I made fresh pasta last night.

On the not so bright side, my wife got annoyed when I said we probably wouldn't be buying anything until 2008 at the earliest when my friend asked if we were still looking.

"when I said we probably wouldn't be buying anything until 2008 at the earliest"

Wrong answer. You are ALWAYS "looking" right? If having to show up at an open house once in awhile to keep up the facade of "being in the market" then it's a small price to pay! If that's all it takes to keep from making the financial mistake of a lifetime then I'm all for it! :)

"You are ALWAYS “looking” right?"

Agreed, I keep checking out RealtyTrac for forclosures and keep finding
sales say 100K in 1M hood... 15K Condo ??? Maybe there are deals out there.

"The logic typically goes like this:"

Yes it certainly does. Right out of the Realtwhore (TM) rookie playbook! Yet another "rigid and false" misconception that refuses to die.

"Maybe there are deals out there"

Exactly Spaceman! And all you have to do is consistently show the Mrs. an even BETTER deal on a regular basis so there's this welling sense of increased buying power! It's the only way "I" can keep my sanity. Just have a set amount you know you won't pay over and then sit back and watch as a condo becomes a SFH then a BIGGER SFH (w/a decent yard) and ultimately w/a pool! (If that's your bag).

While OR's median isn't as jaw dropping a number as CA, study after study has shown that we're one of the least affordable mkts. in the country.

I hadn't meant to imply we wouldn't look, I was just asessing when I figured the market would be in enough trouble for us to be able to get a good deal without having slapfights with the other bottom feeders.

We're seeing foreclosures pop up here and there in the area. Once the real pain of resets from later this year kick in, it'll still be six months before those hit the market as REOs, bringing the comps down towards a more historic norm.

I don't mind overpaying to live in the Bay Area. I don't even mind overpaying a little more to get a 'perfect' house. I believe, however, that houses are still WAY overpriced. Buying now isn't overpaying a little in an already expensive area.

SFBB,

I hear ya'. Even though "bubble fatigue" can be acute (particularly so in the BA) I happen to believe it would be a mistake to do a total disconnect "wake me when it's over" attitude!

Markets don't typically work around our schedule and what we might find convenient to get around to. While I agree w/most that we'll likely bump and drag along the bottom for the better part of a decade, what if it *doesn't unfold like that? What if the correction is swift and severe, support is formed and appreciation resumes? What then?

Thus far predictions have played out w/dizzying speed.

Fantastic news! Spring Bounce has finally appeared!

http://www.housingtracker.net/askingprices/California/SanJose-Sunnyvale-SantaClara/

Trend 03/26/2007 1 month 3 month 6 month 9 month
Median Price $695,000 -0.6% +0.7% -2.0% -5.9%
Inventory 4,985 +13.7% +15.5% -18.4% -12.7%

Date Inventory
(SFH + Condo) 25th Percentile 50th Percentile
(Median) 75th Percentile
03/26/2007 4,985 $584,750 $695,000 $928,888
03/19/2007 3,663 $650,000 $749,950 $1,098,000
03/12/2007 4,577 $585,000 $695,000 $924,800
03/05/2007 4,412 $589,000 $695,000 $925,000

eburbed, can they explain the inventory/price roller coaster?

Notice to Realtors:

If you're gonna draw graphs, refer to underlying math (well, statistics which you mistakenly call math), then you might want to take the time to spiffy things up a bit. Otherwise people who use real financial math (as opposed to NAR-approved-math, you know, the type that yields their chief economist calling the bottom of the housing correction every month) might just come by and comment.

:)

1998, yeah... right. How convenient.

Interesting.

WRONG!!!

But... interesting.

Oh and who the f@ck is Greg Swann anyway?

That's right, he's the "Phoenix is special" realtwhore! Whatever.

DinOR

I think the term "choad" is apropos.

Sorry to hijack this thread, but I had to post this story I found on another blog. The story takes place in the city where I live. Once again, I apologize to Randy, and others, but this story just sums up the stupidity and deceit that goes on in today's RE market.

Bitter Buyers say William’s Lyin’
Mar 24th.

"Today was a beautiful, blue-sky kind of day, the kind of day that reminds me why I love Irvine so much. My little boy and I played for quite a while at “Bob the Builder Park” (aka, Colonel Bill Barber) as well as a small pocket park in Westpark. But first, on our way over to Bob the Builder park, I couldn’t resist making a short detour. I pulled into Columbus Grove and saw the line-up of protest signs along the main thoroughfare, Sweet Shade. I pulled up to the curb, put on my blinkers, gave my boy his Clifford Reading game on his Leapster, and chatted for a few minutes with homeowner Bob Spillar. He was sitting in a beach chair with, at the time I was there, two other men whom he identified as neighbors. I told Bob I was a blogger, writing for a blog on the local housing bubble, and Bob didn’t quite seem to get what I was referring to. (First clue, right? Too bad Bob hadn’t spent some time here, or over on
Ben’s housing bubble blog or on Rich’s site…) Bob was very eager to share his story with me. Here it is:

This is their second weekend protesting William Lyons Homes, Inc. He and 17 other buyers of Phase I Lantana homes plan on sticking it out for the foreseeable future, until Lyons makes appropriate restitution. They have clearance from the Irvine police to hold this protest; they are on public land and Lyons has no recourse to remove them. Bob said that Lyons has not tried to make them leave.

Mid-2005 Bob decided to buy one of the homes in Phase I. He closed in May 2006. He received lots of assurances from the salespeople that prices would not drop in future phases. He said that he feels “coerced, manipulated.” Bob acknowledges that he should not have signed the contract without reading it in its entirety (no kidding!), however he said the sales team promised him he didn’t have to do so. After the purchase, he and his 17 neighbors read “Addendum G” in their contracts which apparently states the standard legalese stuff about this written contract being the only legal agreement, that any verbal agreements not included in the contract would not be considered valid, etc.

So now, Lyons has dropped asking prices significantly in newer phases, and he and the neighbors are hoppin’ mad. Bob told me that he put 20% down when he purchased this home - he said that it was a requirement and you couldn’t buy the house from Lyons unless you put 20% down. (I don’t quite believe this could be true, however this is what he told me). He further told me that he took out a 100k second mortgage to pay for landscaping, etc., and that its rate is going to adjust in August and he is going to be forced to refinance in order to afford his payments. He believes that most of his neighbors also took out seconds that will be adjusting and they are all in the same boat. The whole “I put 20% down but took out a 100k second” just didn’t quite sit right with me, but I didn’t push it since my boy was itching to get going to the park!

He handed me a copy of the protest letter he and his neighbors wrote, letter to Lyons (new information: here’s the back of the petition)as well as a one-page flyer they are apparently giving to would-be new homebuyers who come to check out the models. Take a look: Experience the Lies

In their letter to Patrick McCabe, Project Manager for Lyons Homes in Newport Beach, the neighbors have this to say, “The undersigned phase I residents in the Lantana neighborhood are writing to you today to ask for your consideration to make things right…During the selling process, given the real estate market uncertainties, we had numerous conversations with the sale staff (Nancy, Jennifer, etc) about prices and we were reassured that the home purchase prices would remain stable throughout the development of our community. We believed in the community and you. We understand fluctuations and economics, but a $75,000-$200,000 price reduction? What does that say to your phase I buyers?…Given all the startup problems we endured through the first phase of development, we are asking for William Lyons to consider some type of compensation to all of us. Afterall, when we think of the sub-contractors and laborers that completed work; the quality was average at best. We trusted in you and now feel like we were misled and betrayed…”

So I asked Bob what exactly he wanted from Lyons. He stated that he does NOT want a “refund.” He wants Lyons to refinance the Phase I owners into lower-rate loans; he wants a “small stipend” and he wants free upgrades, retroactively. He said Lyons had already met with the protestors and informed them that the contracts they signed were completely legal and they had no intention of giving the homeowners anything they were asking for now.

So I thanked him and drove away, not having the heart to tell this poor, sweet guy that the carnage had just begun and his equity evaporation was just going to get worse over the coming several years. Best of luck to you and your Lantana Phase I neighbors, Bob."

>eburbed, can they explain the inventory/price roller coaster?

Nope.

It looks like he pulls data from realtor.com - maybe they had a hiccup?

Still, 4,985 homes on the market seems kind of low...

eburbed,

Low inventory with low sales suggests sellers who are holding out until the market stops being 'soft.'

Some people who don't have to sell their homes would rather wait until their house is worth whatever it was at the 'peak' before they sell because they have already mentally accepted the peak price as what their house is 'worth', and so selling now means 'losing' that money that was never really there in the first place. If they really don't need to sell, but were thinking about it to 'change houses' or something, they will represent the 'sticky' side of pricing. The houses that would have been on the market if it hadn't turned soft.

Any above water seller that really needs to sell their place, but is holding out for peak prices is really playing chicken with the buyers. Hoping the market will improve soon enough for him to unload the house, he'll hold out until 'panic' sets in for the whole market or until he absolutely cannot avoid selling anymore. These people include job transfers, estates, etc. These are the 'slow lister' types. They may be on the market, but overpriced, and many will 'chase the prices down,' at least for awhile.

Now... the FBs are going to hit the market with forclosures. If they sell, they'll realize their horrible losses. Sooner or later they're going to be in pain.