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Gallery of Unlikely Bubble Victims


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2007 Mar 29, 8:28am   16,633 views  220 comments

by HARM   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

typical media bubble 'victim'

One of the more interesting side-effects of the housing bubble's collapse is its ability to produce victims from some rather unexpected places. For example: Lennar Corporation, one of the nation's largest home builders which profited handsomely during the run-up (and has been accused by some of substandard workmanship), has just officially been granted victim status from the media:

One by one, some of the nation's largest home-builders have seen quarterly earnings get crushed by the slump in the housing market. Lennar Corp. became the latest victim Tuesday, with a 73 percent plunge in first-quarter earnings and predictions that it is going to fall short of 2007 earnings goals. Since the start of February, home-builders KB Homes, Hovanian Enterprises Inc. and Toll Brothers Inc. all reported falling profits. Stuart Miller, Lennar's president and chief executive, said a lack of demand for the winter-spring buying season, new problems with subprime lenders and higher-than-desired land costs hurt profits.

Apparently, the recent sub-prime credit crunch has also produced quite a few human victims among those who can no longer borrow beyond their means indefinitely and add to their already crushing debt loads:

“A first-time home buyer with an annual income of about $36,000 and almost no savings, Mr. Fields did not qualify for a prime loan for the $315,000 house. So his half brother arranged a 15-year mortgage from WMC Mortgage Company, a subprime division of General Electric, and another from the Option One Mortgage Company, the subprime group of H & R Block.”

“The $2,312 monthly payments were much more than he could afford, but Mr. Fields said his brother assured him that they could find tenants. They did, but then lost them. Last July, without the rental income, his brother, who was managing the property, stopped paying the lenders. Mr. Fields now owes almost $30,000 in delinquent payments and has fallen out with his half brother.”

“‘It’s just sad,’ said Mr. Fields. ‘I can’t even borrow money.’”

And the damage is not just limited to uneducated, Joe 6-pack types with limited means and bad credit. Look what just happened to a PhD with a good job:

“Unlike many borrowers who took out subprime loans, Andy Sobel had good credit, a decent job and modest savings, but he needed to stretch to buy a home in the white-hot San Diego housing market in 2004.”

“Three years later, Sobel has lost his home and his savings, and he faces a big tax bill as a consequence of a failed subprime mortgage held by Countrywide Financial Corp. he says he should never have been written.”

...“‘You never think that this could happen to you. You feel like an idiot,’ said Sobel, who has a doctorate in education. ‘You fall down and they stab you.’”

If these people can become media "victims" of the housing bubble, who's next? Some possibilities:

Alan Greenspan:
"I was forced to lower rates to 1% to moderate the tech bubble recession, and to make the economy look good, so incumbents could get reelected. Those big, mean politicians were really pressuring me! How was I supposed to know it would spawn an even bigger bubble in real estate?? I'm just a powerless (former) central bankster!"

David Lereah:
"I didn't want to keep fanning the flames with outrageous lies and baseless industry propaganda, but I had to feed my family. The NAR kept on blackmailing me with my enormous salary and benefits. What was I supposed to do --quit and become a regular working-stiff like all you low-rent schmucks out there?"

Gary Watts:
"If I didn't come right out and say '15% was in the bag' for 2006, they would have hurt my family. I practically choked on those words, but it was either say it or 'lights out' for little Billy and Janie. I had to choose between my family or my integrity --what would anyone have done in my situation?"

Casey Serin:
"How could I say 'no' to such sweet deals, when everything I learned from those R.K./Robert G. Allen books and seminars was screaming 'Yes, yes, yes!' Besides, Galina was really pressuring me to 'get a house'. How was I suppoosed to know she meant only one? Besides, all those sellers really tricked me --they used my Macaroni Grill & Jamba Juice addiction to talk me into those illegal cash-back deals. They preyed on my fears of being a Looser and took full advantage of me. I feel so... violated."

Discuss, enjoy...
HARM

#housing

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136   DaBoss   2007 Mar 30, 6:59pm  

"And, if that person joined Apple, he’d have options at a great price. I know someone who just retired after 12 years there."

Oh yea... so now the additional expense to earnings "cheap stock expense" by apple from strike price to market price is considered compensation by the Apple and hits their earnings. If your a shareholder you would not be to happy.

If say Google was offered shares a 100 and employee excercises at 500
the difference of is additional expense to Google and will reduce net income.
Are you as a shareholder happier?

Not good news if your a start up trying to make a profit.

137   DaBoss   2007 Mar 30, 7:02pm  

LOL lets face it typical employee lasts 2-3 years at one place. Are we forgetting the politics and cut throat carp that goes on. Thank god I dont have to brown nose some idiot boss.

138   OO   2007 Mar 30, 7:18pm  

Well, salary is salary. If one needs to rely on a wage (especially those who need to rely on 2 wages to buy a million-dollar-shack) to pay the mortgage, feed the kids, he is after all a working class, regardless of how much he makes. That is my interpretation.

One doesn't graduate from the working class and become financially independent until he
1) has a fully-paid off house
2) has an account that can generate a guaranteed annual return that can cover his property tax for 50 years
3) has another account that even when invested very conservatively can generate enough after-tax living cost at whatever lifestyle he chooses for another 50 years

Expenses for 2) and 3) cannot eat into the principal, because once you dip into the principal, then it becomes a very slippery slope.

Before we reach such a stage, the extra $50K or $70K before-tax pay makes little difference. We are all, as the Japanese call it, SALARYMAN.

139   Allah   2007 Mar 30, 11:33pm  

The Casey bailout is in full swing, he’s up over a $1000. Wild.

I don't know who is dumber, Casey or the people who are giving him money!

140   astrid   2007 Mar 31, 12:08am  

Peter P,

There's all kinds of discounts associated with the second kid if you time it (yes, I know what I said) close to the first kid. Clothes, nanny, pre-school, bulk diapers, room sharing after the kids are able to sleep through the nights.

141   astrid   2007 Mar 31, 12:14am  

I'm single and I love Costco. I can go shop there once a month and stock up on all the canned good, frozen goods and items of the moment (all returnable within 6 months). I even love their sample tables, not for myself but for parking boyfriend or parental unit.

I find Costco usually has better QC, especially on frozen and canned food, compared to Trader Joe's. They may sell more generic stuff, but I've almost never had a nasty surprise with a purchase.

142   astrid   2007 Mar 31, 12:17am  

Also, Costco on weekday noon only works if you're in a largely working town. In the Pleasanton Costco, we find about the same amount of traffic on weekdays and weekends. The weekdays bring out all the bored stay at home moms with three kids in tow. The best time is probably early morning or right before closing.

143   Michael Holliday   2007 Mar 31, 1:05am  

Glen Says:

"...I remember the early ’90s: Japan-bashing, Pete Wilson, Pat Buchanan, Gulf war I, prop 187, three strikes law, etc.. Ugly times call for ugly politics."
_____

In terms of the proposed conservative solutions (whose response was only proportionate to the severity of the problems at hand), to the madness of the ineffectual and deleterious liberal policies of the day, I thought those were beautiful times.

But I guess beauty, truly, is in the eye of the beholder.

I question your political aesthetic, my friend. I question it with a curious
eye (and one hand on a chocolate chip cookie and the other grasping a cold glass of Hi-C fruit punch).

144   skibum   2007 Mar 31, 1:36am  

OO,

Couldn't agree with you more. Whether you're a Costco checkout clerk, grunt engineer or corporate law firm associate, as long as you have the overhanging threat that if you lose your job you won't be able to meet your monthly financial obligations, you're still working class.

Working class -> time worked = wages
Wealthy -> money in investments work for you

So all this talk of techies getting so-and-so salary and what constitutes a "high" salary in SV is overshadowed by the fact that one's financial security is still tied to keeping that job.

145   skibum   2007 Mar 31, 1:38am  

Space Ace,

Keep it up with the jaded Silly Valley rants. I love it. :D

146   DinOR   2007 Mar 31, 1:45am  

astrid,

Excessive visits to Costco constitutes a serious but treatable medical condition. If you can't bring it under control of your own accord we might have to do an intervention. :)

Remember your friends at patrick.net are there for you!

PS, (I know, you don't care!)

147   DinOR   2007 Mar 31, 1:47am  

allah,

Ed Munteanu... A Real Financial HERO!

148   DinOR   2007 Mar 31, 2:00am  

skibum,

"Green" flips. Now I've heard it all!

OO is spot in with his appraisal of quickie flips. True, long term homeowners realize to let a place slide into disrepair creates an insurmountable situation. Rather than become overwhelmed we realize it takes a genuine balance not bite off more than you can chew.

Every year my wife and I sat down and penciled out the things that 1) absolutely needed to be done, 2) things that "should" be done and 3) things that "would be nice" to be done.

It's really not that difficult. Anyone renting a truck, enlisting co-workers they barely know (regardless of their qualifications) and scrambling around at the last minute just doesn't impress me. Sorry. Home maintenance is an ongoing and constant project. The whole "bang for the buck" and curb appeal approach really messes with me.

149   DinOR   2007 Mar 31, 2:00am  

spot on?

150   Glen   2007 Mar 31, 2:03am  

In terms of the proposed conservative solutions (whose response was only proportionate to the severity of the problems at hand), to the madness of the ineffectual and deleterious liberal policies of the day, I thought those were beautiful times.
But I guess beauty, truly, is in the eye of the beholder.

It was not conservative policies or liberal policies that ended the recession. These things just need to play themselves out. My point was just that the worse things get, the more the public supports aggressive law enforcement and scapegoating as the "solution." This may placate voters in the short run, but it can be dangerous in the long run.

151   DinOR   2007 Mar 31, 2:13am  

OO,

I'm almost in complete agreement with your interpetation of "independently wealthy". Dipping into your principal is something most truly wealthy people are loathe to do.

In my mind (and I'm sure this won't fly without "some" criticism) it hinges on whether or not you intend to leave a "financial legacy"? If it's your intent to have children/surviving spouse that won't "have" to work then yes, that's absolutely essential. For the other 94% of us, if your last check to the undertaker bounces, you timed it just right!

To quote one of the old navy chiefs I used to work for: "I don't want my wife to have to go down to the street corner and sell p$ssy, but I'll be DAMNED if she's going to go around town BUYING d!ck!"

152   dp337   2007 Mar 31, 2:26am  

"This one takes the cake, the house just closed in March. It’s got good schools but look at the price.

Type: Detached Single Family
Status: Sold
List Date: 02/21/07
Sale Price: $1,168,000
Sale Date: 03/07/07
Location: 1125 POME AV, Sunnyvale, CA 94087 (map)
Bedrooms: 3
Bathrooms: 2
Approx. Sq. Ft.: 1772
Approx. Lot Size: 7,840sf
Approx age: 44
MLS#: 708446"

You got to be kidding me. I think the schools are: Cumberland, Sunnvale Junior High, and Homestead HS. $1.2M Not worth it for those who lived in the area for awhile. Probably someone from abroad that doesn't know any better. Proabably will foreclose in 24 months.

Signed up for a free trial in a foreclosure sight. It's amazing how these homeowners take out a HELOC or second mortgage. $65,000 here, $150,000 there, I need $50,000 now... By the time they are set a done they turned a regular $375,000 initial mortgage to a $800,000 ARM. Paper wealth and a match waiting to be lit at any given moment. Poof! it's gone.

153   DinOR   2007 Mar 31, 2:30am  

Delta Pappa,

You're obviously just a JBR that doesn't understand the "new rules for money"! Why you hate Amerika? :)

154   DinOR   2007 Mar 31, 2:38am  

Oh and speaking of "the new rules for money" how IS Ric Edelman getting along these days? (He's the original NEVER pay off your mortgage) and the very first debt =wealth disciple!

Some of his original basic ideas made sense but like Walter E. Kurtz "his principles became... unsound... unsound".

155   Claire   2007 Mar 31, 3:50am  

Okay - so how about this for a story - heard about a family who have bought a 2 bedroomed house in Cupertino (not sure how much they paid but over $1m) for the school district - still got their old house - which they plan to rent out (not ready to rent out yet and they have to start paying for both mortgages in the next month or so). They have four children - the idea being this is cheaper than paying for private school - any comments as to the validity of this?

156   Claire   2007 Mar 31, 3:52am  

DP - on the foreclosure site - are there many in Mountain View, Sunnyvale, Los Altos, Cupertino area? It would interesting if you could give us an update as the year goes on as to whether the numbers rise significantly.

157   lunarpark   2007 Mar 31, 4:03am  

One couple we know just threw in the towel and bought a house in Los Gatos. They bought at 6-7x income, and the wife doesn't work. No kids, yet. Some people are still jumping in.

I'm seeing a slow, steady growth of inventory in parts of Central SJ, Rose Garden & Willow Glen. Do these areas have bad schools?

158   FormerAptBroker   2007 Mar 31, 4:16am  

Claire Says:

> Okay - so how about this for a story - heard about a
> family who have bought a 2 bedroomed house in
> Cupertino (not sure how much they paid but over $1m)
> for the school district. They have four children - the idea
> being this is cheaper than paying for private school –
> any comments as to the validity of this?

Here in San Francisco the base tuition for a top K-8 school (like Town, Cathedral, Burke or Hamlin) is over $20K so when you add in Books, Uniforms and the minimum mandatory fees (and blew off all the semi mandatory giving) you would be at about $88K or $7.3K a month after tax dollars or just about the same after tax out the door as having a $2mm IO loan. If the good private schools in the Cupertino are about $10K per kid the tuition will cost about the same per year after tax as a $1mm loan…

159   FormerAptBroker   2007 Mar 31, 4:24am  

Someone wrote:

> The Casey bailout is in full swing,
> he’s up over a $1000. Wild.

Then allah Says:

> I don’t know who is dumber, Casey or
> the people who are giving him money!

I went over to Casey’s site to see what he did to get so much money and it turns out that he got a fake $850 donation (but is still over $300 since he sold the blue ball)…

160   Peter P   2007 Mar 31, 5:01am  

that’s precisely the reason immigrants target areas with good school districts. Going to public school saves a LOT. Can you imagine sending two kids through private schools at $30K each after tax? That is a big ouch.

I think my 300K NPV calculation assumes public school education.

161   Peter P   2007 Mar 31, 5:03am  

There’s all kinds of discounts associated with the second kid if you time it (yes, I know what I said) close to the first kid. Clothes, nanny, pre-school, bulk diapers, room sharing after the kids are able to sleep through the nights.

Maybe you are right. No discount in Education though.

162   cb   2007 Mar 31, 5:10am  

Here's a conversation I had with a immigrant parent awhile back.

"Hi, your son goes to school around here"

"No, he goes to Challenger, but I think he's gifted, I'm sending him to Harker in a couple of years"

"Oh, he looks big for his age"

"Yeah when we go to Hometown Buffet, they don't believe his age"

I leave the reader to find the humour in this.

163   dp337   2007 Mar 31, 5:19am  

" are there many in Mountain View, Sunnyvale, Los Altos, Cupertino area? It would interesting if you could give us an update as the year goes on as to whether the numbers rise significantly."

I just ran a quick query for Santa Clara County. Here are the results:
1800 - Pre-Foreclosures or foreclosed
351 - Auctions
933 - Bank Owned

Another site had higher amounts in each category. Looking at the mortgage history in these houses tell a telling tale. Tons of houses bought in 2004/2005 (ARMS), or owners using their houses as virtual piggy banks.

164   astrid   2007 Mar 31, 6:50am  

I don't like restaurants except on special occasions, I can't control the environment or the time. Good restaurants are very expensive and I usually prefer to spend money elsewhere. Cooking is also fun and therapeutic for me, and the results are as good or better than run-of-the-mill restaurants.

165   astrid   2007 Mar 31, 6:52am  

Also, how else am I going to get rid of all that bread I keep baking?

166   Michael Holliday   2007 Mar 31, 7:01am  

Glen Says:

"...My point was just that the worse things get, the more the public supports aggressive law enforcement and scapegoating as the “solution.” This may placate voters in the short run, but it can be dangerous in the long run."
_____

Fair enough.

Take, for instance, the subject of liberal ultra tolerance when it comes to Illegal Aliens. It's to the point that you cannot even say the words "Illegal Alien." One must now use the politically correct words "undocumented immigrant," or even "undocumented American."

An illegal is now morally equivalent to a US citizen, or even has more freedom than a law abiding citizen who must live by the rules. And if you object, of course, you are an anti-Mexican, xenophobic, nativist racist.

In effect, all dialog or antithesis has been squelched by the left-wing fascist name callers, in the name of anti-racism. Anti-racist is a component of the fascism of the left.

It has come to the point where there are millions of illegal aliens in this country, many carrying deadly diseases such as Tuberculosis and Chagas disease, that are telling other people/cultures/races from around the world, that play by the rules and come try to come into this country legally, "Get to the back of the bus."

Kind of like the situation in housing market. Those that played by the conventional rules of common business sense and financial prudence in our ostensibly "free market," were punished for waiting the bubble madness out on the sidelines, while the more adventurous (unethical?) seem to have had their cake and ate it too!

Here's a negative stat: One third of the prisoners incarcerated in the US are illegal aliens from all over Mexico, Central and South America.
And yet law enforcement and our politicians do virtually nothing. Why?

Now you've got huge real estate/mortgage fraud rings being discovered, like the one recently reported in Colorado, comprised mostly of Illegal Aliens.

And what invariably happens is that things get so bad, there's an overreaction to the situation that's tantamount to a right-wing backlash.
And then the left-wing points a bony, wretched finger at the authorities they despise, who finally act, (or overreact) saying, "Ha! I told you they were right-wing fascists all along!"

In other words, the left-wing never takes responsibility for the lax standards, be it housing, or illegal immigration, or national security, or whatever that gett us into these untenable positions in the first place.

And when criticized for so doing, they just roll along as if criticism doesn't exist.

Same faces, different administration. Same sh-t, different day!

167   skibum   2007 Mar 31, 8:33am  

Michael Holliday,
You just described the Bay Area to a T! Welcome to political hell!

168   Brand165   2007 Mar 31, 9:22am  

Not to subvert the thread, but whatever happened to forced labor for prisoners? They are supposed to be improving themselves to become part of society again. Well, the best way to build dignity is a hard day's work. In their case, it's a hard day's work with your feet chained to the next guy and a sheriff with a shotgun standing guard. If we're going to pay for their incarceration, I think we should get something back.

Why are we detaining illegal aliens in our prisons? We should either deport them immediately or send them to various forced labor institutions. Maybe that could be our answer to ultra-low cost manufacturing in China. Or we could just send them to Iraq. Sort of like an involuntary French foreign legion.

169   Allah   2007 Mar 31, 9:26am  

As much as I like reading posts on the site, watching what these people post sometimes is like watching a 4 year old play with your prized porcelain. I am almost ready to start a profile there and send them some real good articles. It's almost like they're reading articles from last year! :roll:

170   Brand165   2007 Mar 31, 9:46am  

Interesting side note. I did my usual MLS queries on "REO", "lender owned" and "bank owned". That inventory has plunged since Jaunuary. Lots of REO in backup. I wonder if someone is exploiting this subprime chaos to cut some good deals with the banks?

When dealing with a company like New Century or Countrywide, is it possible to nail them pretty hard on the offer because they are badly strapped for cash?

171   DaBoss   2007 Mar 31, 9:49am  

Ah so true Skibum and OO,
We are all wage workers. Infact if you are one of the uber rich why live here and not somewhere else where you dollars goes further.

Sat morning SJ Mercury healines.....

Home sales run hot, cold

http://www.mercurynews.com/ci_5564641?nclick_check=1

172   B.A.C.A.H.   2007 Mar 31, 10:57am  

CB:

I enjoyed your anecdote about Hometown.

But there is a big disconnect between the sentiment you expressed, and what I see on the ground: lotsa Lexus and other expensive vehicles, frequent trips "back home" during peak holiday travel time, shopping bags from the expensive stores at Valley Fair. And worst of all, an arrogantly smug attitude towards the lower castes of folks who do most of the labor in Silicon Valley.

All that swagger, in the context of the salaries in Silicon Valley, it doesn't add up. You can see why it's logical to conclude that these folks are not wage slaves. They must have imported a lot of wealth from "back home". In fact I am personally acquainted with someone like that, a Cupertino resident who sends his kids to a private Mandarin school in P.A. He doesn't even have a job.

173   OO   2007 Mar 31, 12:15pm  

syrib,

private mandarin class costs nothing, it is no Harker or better yet, philips exeter. You can afford one if you want to, $100 a month to the most. There is no such thing as private Mandarin school, you see, the elites from China all speak English to each other, just like the elites from India. Parents in SV send kids to Mandarin classes just for the remote possibility that one day they may be able to go to China to dig gold, if China survives the upcoming worldwide recession set off by America. It is purely profit-driven.

Uber rich Chinese don't live in Cupertino either, they live where the uber rich white folks are, Los Altos Hills, Woodside, Atherton, Hillsborough etc. The Chinese you see in Cupertino, Palo Alto or Saratoga are all working class Chinese (just making a few bucks more) who still care about the savings from the good public schools. The real rich Chinese send their kids to UK, Swiss boarding schools and US prep schools, they don't give a damn about school district.

174   DaBoss   2007 Mar 31, 12:27pm  

"Los Altos Hills, Woodside, Atherton, Hillsborough"

How true ... everyone has gone nuts on MV and PA ... thinking its somehow worth 1M for a 1000 sfr.
Some guy was telling he how MV/PA was wonderfull. I asked him if he been to Los Gatos or Woodside... "No never been there". I doubt they know where Hillsborogh is. The fact is many people have come here and have ventured very little outside a few miles from work.

LOL... what a joke...

175   DaBoss   2007 Mar 31, 12:42pm  

"shopping bags from the expensive stores at Valley Fair"

Let them. Its their own money they are burning.

"lotsa Lexus and other expensive vehicles"

lots of Lexus and BMWs for sale after a few years of use down the road from Valley Fair half the price. Spendaholics...they like their name brands and have to have one just like the Jones' from down the street. While they are burning theirs Im saving mine.

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